Move Carefully On Boosting Military Ties With China

[Lite Beer]

EDITORIAL
Move carefully on boosting military ties with China
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Lack of clear security policy leaves Kingdom ill-equipped to reap maximum benefit when superpowers come calling

China is looking to expand its military-to-military ties with Thailand, and Defence Minister ACM Sukampol Suwannathat thinks it's a good idea. Sukampol met his Chinese counterpart, Chang Wanquan, for the first time on the sidelines of the recently concluded Asean meeting of defence ministers in Brunei.

On the face of things, the idea of diversifying military ties is not such a bad idea. But in reality, such ties usually result in a degree of dependency.

Thailand has its annual Cobra Gold exercises with the US, and some defence planners may think it's a good idea to have something similar with other major powers.

Thailand and China have held their "Blue Strike" training exercises in recent years. These exercises depart from normal military cooperation in that they are aimed at counter-terrorism.

As is always the case, moving closer militarily comes with a price tag, and the outcome is not always a win-win situation. One can talk about technicalities, such as the Royal Thai Air Force's avionics being closely aligned to those of the US, as well as other weapon systems, and so on.

But what the Chinese are suggesting - with Sukumpol's apparent acceptance - is much more fundamental. It's something that could shape the course of Thailand's international relations, security outlook and threat perception.

Perhaps it's time that Thai policy and defence planners sit down together and think about the big strategic picture and look at ways to balance our act.

In recent years, Thailand has been moving closer and closer to the Chinese orbit. Part of the reason is that the US, Thailand's long-standing ally, has been too busy in the Middle East and Afghanistan, as well as engaging itself in the global war on terrorism.

Furthermore, the political turmoil at home has often confused our American friends as to the future direction of Thai democracy.

A new defence agreement with the US was signed during the visit of President Barack Obama to reiterate Washington's commitment to this country and to the region. There were some concerns here that the country could be seen as moving too close to the American orbit.

The alliance is part of a bigger Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) launched 10 years ago by then US president George W Bush to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Don't be surprised if China steps up its assertiveness as it moves to recalibrate its strategic interest. For the sake of the nation's future, let's hope that Sukampol foresaw China's charm and diplomatic offensive.

But Thailand's relations with the superpowers don't have to be a zero-sum game. Thailand can set its "pivot" towards the US and China simultaneously without choosing sides. The problem is not these two superpowers. The problem is that this government does not have a strong and unified foreign and security policy team that can push for and articulate the country's strategic interest at the international level.

Without it, we could be very vulnerable to outsiders' assertiveness. Worse of all, we underestimate our own strategic value amid the new security landscape in the region while others spin ahead with their forward-looking plans.

-- The Nation 2013-05-12

[RubbaJohnny]

Interesting our erstwhile friends were unavailable when elected governments were overthrown agan and again or were they the instigators? Througout Asia popular governemnets in Iran Indonesia have fallen to US coups.

The commets re dependancy may apply to alliance with any large power.Non aligned India would seem the least worrisome partner and of course the source of non violent Bodhidarma which is purported to be the vade mecum of the natives.

I thik the wily locals know that uncle sam treats the nation the same way it treats its ladies and will move along when used.

Edited May 12, 2013 by RubbaJohnny

[thomash]

Thailands security policy? "Who's on first, what's on second and I don't know is on third" sums up Thailands security policy!

[chainarong]

I wouldn't trust China, their track record is one of control ,in countries they have been able to get a foot hold in, they've been also kicked out of countries with investment, Myanmar comes to mind, the US haven't left the area, they have repositioned , bases are now being either built or expanded in Australia, Northern territory and West Australia ,now have Us personal there , which caters for all types of military hardware, including submarines and the reason for this coming about , Strong Democracy , political base, same beliefs and aims as US, and the emergence of China becoming a dominant power in the region, the reason why the US has left Thailand behind speaks for it's self, who would be bothered with a government that wont allow the opposition the right to an interview with a foreign press, but then again you do fit in with the principles of China, I'd love to see the western embassies daily reports to their respective countries .

[ronz28]

I see China as a country who does a lot of good in the world producing cost effective products that we all use. I haven't observed the Chinese government threatening others as the North Korean government does. U.S. may need to move some balance of forces to the Philippines and other locations from Japan due to the Japanese nuclear radiation problems and probability for even worse earthquakes. I don't think its due to any military problems with the Chinese. I don't think it would hurt for Thailand to keep open the lines of communications with the Chinese including military forces.

[ratcatcher]

I see China as a country who does a lot of good in the world producing cost effective products that we all use. I haven't observed the Chinese government threatening others as the North Korean government does. U.S. may need to move some balance of forces to the Philippines and other locations from Japan due to the Japanese nuclear radiation problems and probability for even worse earthquakes. I don't think its due to any military problems with the Chinese. I don't think it would hurt for Thailand to keep open the lines of communications with the Chinese including military forces.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/03/27/china-military-south-china-sea/2023947/

http://www.timesnow.tv/Vietnam-counters-Chinese-aggression/articleshow/4382852.cms

http://www.chinasucks.net/aggressive-posturing-by-china-in-the-south-china-sea/

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/01/26/philippines-protests-renewed-chinese-aggression-in-south-china-sea/

No aggression here folks, just taking care of business.

[NeverSure]

I see China as a country who does a lot of good in the world producing cost effective products that we all use. I haven't observed the Chinese government threatening others as the North Korean government does. U.S. may need to move some balance of forces to the Philippines and other locations from Japan due to the Japanese nuclear radiation problems and probability for even worse earthquakes. I don't think its due to any military problems with the Chinese. I don't think it would hurt for Thailand to keep open the lines of communications with the Chinese including military forces.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/03/27/china-military-south-china-sea/2023947/

http://www.timesnow.tv/Vietnam-counters-Chinese-aggression/articleshow/4382852.cms

http://www.chinasucks.net/aggressive-posturing-by-china-in-the-south-china-sea/

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/01/26/philippines-protests-renewed-chinese-aggression-in-south-china-sea/

No aggression here folks, just taking care of business.

Good job.

[metisdead]

Trolling nonsense and off topic posts have been removed.

[chainarong]

You know nothing of China's threats against The Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan in disputes over land? You know nothing of the skirmishes between China and India at the border?

I'll bet you also don't know that Thailand declared war against England and the US in WWII either, do you? You don't know that Thailand aligned itself with Japan in WWII?

Do you know that Thailand soon regretted that? Do you know that the US never reciprocated by declaring war against Thailand? Do you know that Thailand had to be rescued from Japan - first attempt by England, and cleaned up by the US?

Do you know that Thailand was occupied by Japan for about 4 years from 1941 to 1945? Do you know who defeated Japan and ran them off?

Thailand doesn't have a history of choosing good allies.

All I know is China is not being entirely honest with its defence spending per GDP, about 25% out, then again it's not being entirely honest with quiet a few things about it's economy either.

[Somtamnication]

The phrase "sleeping with the devil" comes to mind.

[DonaldBattles]

When Lao invaded Pitsanulok in 1987 how did Thailand do in that war?

[metisdead]

Off topic baiting posts have been removed and will continue to be removed.

[foxteen]

China is looking to expand its military-to-military ties with Thailand, and Defence Minister ACM Sukampol Suwannathat thinks it's a good idea.I don't think is good idea at all.I would never trust the chinese because they are aiming something else

[ratcatcher]

China is looking to expand its military-to-military ties with Thailand, and Defence Minister ACM Sukampol Suwannathat thinks it's a good idea.I don't think is good idea at all.I would never trust the chinese because they are aiming something else

"......because they are aiming at something else"

And what would that "something else" be I wonder?

[NeverSure]

China is looking to expand its military-to-military ties with Thailand, and Defence Minister ACM Sukampol Suwannathat thinks it's a good idea.I don't think is good idea at all.I would never trust the chinese because they are aiming something else

"......because they are aiming at something else"

And what would that "something else" be I wonder?

Dominating at least all of Asia, Australia and India. Ratcatcher posted a bunch of links above. Just glance at them. Google knows all about India/China, and China is slowly buying up Australia.

China is still a hard core communist country and it has to find resources to feed and house its people. It has no soul. It's like an alligator eating anything it can catch.

[rametindallas]

You know nothing of China's threats against The Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan in disputes over land? You know nothing of the skirmishes between China and India at the border?

I'll bet you also don't know that Thailand declared war against England and the US in WWII either, do you? You don't know that Thailand aligned itself with Japan in WWII?

Do you know that Thailand soon regretted that? Do you know that the US never reciprocated by declaring war against Thailand? Do you know that Thailand had to be rescued from Japan - first attempt by England, and cleaned up by the US?

Do you know that Thailand was occupied by Japan for about 4 years from 1941 to 1945? Do you know who defeated Japan and ran them off?

Thailand doesn't have a history of choosing good allies.

Britain wanted to punish Thailand at the end of WW2 for siding with the Japanese and the U.S. prevented it. Ask Vietnam, The Philippine Islands, Japan, S. Korea, and Indonesia what they think of China claiming the entire South China sea and their other expansionist policy. Can anyone name some land that the U.S. is claiming that is in dispute. Thailand can have its 'play' army because it knows if it is ever attacked, treaties with the U.S. will guarantee the protection of Thai sovereignty. As a U.S. taxpayer, I'm tired to pay the bills to keep sea lanes world-wide free. I tired of the past and current government meddling in the Middle East. I'm tired of paying 40% of the budget for the corrupted United Nations where Sudan is chair of Human Rights this year. That said, Thailand is safer siding with the U.S. than with China which never does anything altruistic and will extract concessions for any aid to Thailand. Of course, the PTP is trying to change the Constitution so that the government doesn't need Parliamentary approval to make agreements and treaties with foreign governments. China is NOT above paying bribes as Minister Sukumpon has probably realized by now witnessed by his new-found approval of new Chinese military ties.

[JeremyBowskill]

China is looking to expand its military-to-military ties with Thailand, and Defence Minister ACM Sukampol Suwannathat thinks it's a good idea.I don't think is good idea at all.I would never trust the chinese because they are aiming something else

"......because they are aiming at something else"

And what would that "something else" be I wonder?

Dominating at least all of Asia, Australia and India. Ratcatcher posted a bunch of links above. Just glance at them. Google knows all about India/China, and China is slowly buying up Australia.

China is still a hard core communist country and it has to find resources to feed and house its people. It has no soul. It's like an alligator eating anything it can catch.

This may all be true about the Chinese and resources, but Luke 6:42 springs to mind when Americans point this out. Luke 6:42. How can you say to your brother, 'Brother, let me take the speck out of your eye,' when you yourself fail to see the plank in your own eye?

[EyesWideOpen]

This is too funny for words. The naked aggression of China in the South China Sea should be a wake up call, but apparently it is not to the blinkered " leaders" of Thailand. Regarding "boosting ties" , this would be somewhat akin to an ant trying to strike deals with an elephant...... This path is completely insane for Thailand and makes no sense whatsoever. China is like a black hole sucking everything in its path as the great post by Ratcatcher pointed out, and the trick is to stay out of its way with a strong military ally. Just look at what countries that in fact are directly in the path are doing, which is more closely aligning with America.

The only reason I can see for Thailand to be in essence handed over to China by aligning with them, would be the long term design of the Thai -Chinese leadership to give the country to the mother land.....

Edited May 12, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[impulse]

You know nothing of China's threats against The Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan in disputes over land? You know nothing of the skirmishes between China and India at the border?

I'll bet you also don't know that Thailand declared war against England and the US in WWII either, do you? You don't know that Thailand aligned itself with Japan in WWII?

Do you know that Thailand soon regretted that? Do you know that the US never reciprocated by declaring war against Thailand? Do you know that Thailand had to be rescued from Japan - first attempt by England, and cleaned up by the US?

Do you know that Thailand was occupied by Japan for about 4 years from 1941 to 1945? Do you know who defeated Japan and ran them off?

Thailand doesn't have a history of choosing good allies.

Britain wanted to punish Thailand at the end of WW2 for siding with the Japanese and the U.S. prevented it. Ask Vietnam, The Philippine Islands, Japan, S. Korea, and Indonesia what they think of China claiming the entire South China sea and their other expansionist policy. Can anyone name some land that the U.S. is claiming that is in dispute. Thailand can have its 'play' army because it knows if it is ever attacked, treaties with the U.S. will guarantee the protection of Thai sovereignty. As a U.S. taxpayer, I'm tired to pay the bills to keep sea lanes world-wide free. I tired of the past and current government meddling in the Middle East. I'm tired of paying 40% of the budget for the corrupted United Nations where Sudan is chair of Human Rights this year. That said, Thailand is safer siding with the U.S. than with China which never does anything altruistic and will extract concessions for any aid to Thailand. Of course, the PTP is trying to change the Constitution so that the government doesn't need Parliamentary approval to make agreements and treaties with foreign governments. China is NOT above paying bribes as Minister Sukumpon has probably realized by now witnessed by his new-found approval of new Chinese military ties.

Generally, I agree 100%, but in the interest of fairness and full disclosure, there is an independence movement going on in Guam, and several more in the Continental US among aboriginal populations. (As an aside: They call themselves "Native Americans", which offends me quite a bit because I was born there too, and that makes me just as native as they are)

All that anyone has to do is read Tsun Tsu's Art of War and then read a little Chinese history to see what they have in mind when they speak of an "alliance".

Edited May 12, 2013 by impulse

[NeverSure]

China is looking to expand its military-to-military ties with Thailand, and Defence Minister ACM Sukampol Suwannathat thinks it's a good idea.I don't think is good idea at all.I would never trust the chinese because they are aiming something else

"......because they are aiming at something else"

And what would that "something else" be I wonder?

Dominating at least all of Asia, Australia and India. Ratcatcher posted a bunch of links above. Just glance at them. Google knows all about India/China, and China is slowly buying up Australia.

China is still a hard core communist country and it has to find resources to feed and house its people. It has no soul. It's like an alligator eating anything it can catch.

This may all be true about the Chinese and resources, but Luke 6:42 springs to mind when Americans point this out. Luke 6:42. How can you say to your brother, 'Brother, let me take the speck out of your eye,' when you yourself fail to see the plank in your own eye?

There's always one in the crowd who thinks two wrongs make a right, or that because someone else did something, that makes something else OK.

It reminds me of grade school. "Well, Johnny did it too!!!!!!!!!!!" Or "Johnny did it first!!!!!!!"

[A Member]

I wouldn't trust China, their track record is one of control ,in countries they have been able to get a foot hold in, they've been also kicked out of countries with investment, Myanmar comes to mind, the US haven't left the area, they have repositioned , bases are now being either built or expanded in Australia, Northern territory and West Australia ,now have Us personal there , which caters for all types of military hardware, including submarines and the reason for this coming about , Strong Democracy , political base, same beliefs and aims as US, and the emergence of China becoming a dominant power in the region, the reason why the US has left Thailand behind speaks for it's self, who would be bothered with a government that wont allow the opposition the right to an interview with a foreign press, but then again you do fit in with the principles of China, I'd love to see the western embassies daily reports to their respective countries .

Several African countries are expressing reservations about having welcomed the Chinese, their loans etc. with open arms then finding out their new friends were exerting undue control over everything.

[SOTIRIOS]

......considering how susceptible Thailand probably is to invasion.....and people don't even have a clue....considering how the country is being run....

....many people concede that the country is already controlled by 'external forces' that are in fact, on very friendly terms with Thailand's neighbors...

(....with military readiness and billions available......)

....it would probably be a good move.....

[djlest]

The inevitable war between the US and China will undoubtebly happen, there is no way either of their egos would be able to exist on the same planet without a WWIII being the result
Korea and this dance that we are seeing for the next few years is just the priming. China is collecting its allies in a carefully and calculated way, using the we are Asean policy to unite its boundaries.
The US will now start to use its tactics to block them and slow them down while the US recovers, but lets face it... It will happen, and has already started, and just how many allies will china have not just in Asia but the far east when push comes to shove.

[DonaldBattles]

Communism and slave labor and only one child allows China to make the cheapest goods in the world. As part owners of Laos and their huge Industrial Park just across the river from The Golden Triangle in Laos they are moving 1 million people there. What kind of defense treaty would Thailand have to keep them out of Chiang Rai. When the 13 Chinese sailors were killed by by what is belived to be the master controllers of the Golden Triangle drug distribution system what happened to the 9 Thai army people who were arrested. Maybe there is already a strong milatary relationship with China, Burma and Laos.

[chooka]

The inevitable war between the US and China will undoubtebly happen, there is no way either of their egos would be able to exist on the same planet without a WWIII being the result

Korea and this dance that we are seeing for the next few years is just the priming. China is collecting its allies in a carefully and calculated way, using the we are Asean policy to unite its boundaries.

The US will now start to use its tactics to block them and slow them down while the US recovers, but lets face it... It will happen, and has already started, and just how many allies will china have not just in Asia but the far east when push comes to shove.

Well if the U.S wants it don't come calling on others to help them. They can fight it on thier own.

[EyesWideOpen]

The inevitable war between the US and China will undoubtebly happen, there is no way either of their egos would be able to exist on the same planet without a WWIII being the result

Korea and this dance that we are seeing for the next few years is just the priming. China is collecting its allies in a carefully and calculated way, using the we are Asean policy to unite its boundaries.

The US will now start to use its tactics to block them and slow them down while the US recovers, but lets face it... It will happen, and has already started, and just how many allies will china have not just in Asia but the far east when push comes to shove.

Well if the U.S wants it don't come calling on others to help them. They can fight it on thier own.

I agree, wars with coalition partners is too cumbersome. Better to blast ahead by yourself.... :-)

But wars using physical hardware seems to be a antique notion. Wars now are being fought on a financial level. Where land and control is being bought, not fought over. To see how this is done, you need to look no farther than Laos, which has been bought out by China . Or see what China has done in Africa.

With a financial war, America would stop all Chinese imports overnight, and declare China's holding of US debt as void. Not really sure what China would do......

So in essence countries like Thailand are just trying to align themselves with who they think will be the winning side in the future conflict between China and America. Thailand picked the losing side with Japan in WW2, and if they blow off America to side with China I think they will lose again. But this decision is not neutral, due to the overwhelming Thai-Chinese leadership and their natural alignment with the motherland.

But I think as usual, Thailand who considers itself a master ofplaying major powers against each other, will try to play both sides at once.

Edited May 12, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[Baerboxer]

I see China as a country who does a lot of good in the world producing cost effective products that we all use. I haven't observed the Chinese government threatening others as the North Korean government does. U.S. may need to move some balance of forces to the Philippines and other locations from Japan due to the Japanese nuclear radiation problems and probability for even worse earthquakes. I don't think its due to any military problems with the Chinese. I don't think it would hurt for Thailand to keep open the lines of communications with the Chinese including military forces.

Ask yourself how many countries has China ever invaded or used covert operations to overthrow the legal government in another country?

China is much more clever and subtle and uses economic skill to achieve influence. Just how much of the enormous US debt is owned by China.

PTP better be careful, Barry O will get upset and withdraw his administrations staunch support for the democratically elected populist peoples party if they get to close to China.

China - aren't the Shin clan ethnically Chinese, and does China operate a one party "democracy" favoured by the clan head? Hmm seems to be some synergies here. Maybe the " special friendly criminal" the US issued a visa too, ignoring their normal rules, ain't that friendly after all.

Some interesting possibilities here.

[Baerboxer]

The inevitable war between the US and China will undoubtebly happen, there is no way either of their egos would be able to exist on the same planet without a WWIII being the result

Korea and this dance that we are seeing for the next few years is just the priming. China is collecting its allies in a carefully and calculated way, using the we are Asean policy to unite its boundaries.

The US will now start to use its tactics to block them and slow them down while the US recovers, but lets face it... It will happen, and has already started, and just how many allies will china have not just in Asia but the far east when push comes to shove.

Well if the U.S wants it don't come calling on others to help them. They can fight it on thier own.

I agree, wars with coalition partners is too cumbersome. Better to blast ahead by yourself.... :-)

But wars using physical hardware seems to be a antique notion. Wars now are being fought on a financial level. Where land and control is being bought, not fought over. To see how this is done, you need to look no farther than Laos, which has been bought out by China . Or see what China has done in Africa.

With a financial war, America would stop all Chinese imports overnight, and declare China's holding of US debt as void. Not really sure what China would do......

So in essence countries like Thailand are just trying to align themselves with who they think will be the winning side in the future conflict between China and America. Thailand picked the losing side with Japan in WW2, and if they blow off America to side with China I think they will lose again. But this decision is not neutral, due to the overwhelming Thai-Chinese leadership and their natural alignment with the motherland.

But I think as usual, Thailand who considers itself a master ofplaying major powers against each other, will try to play both sides at once.

Yep - and how many wars have the US won when fighting on their own? Mexico, Philipinnes? Real class opisition. China can match the US for man power, equipment and technology. China has never been an agressive nation, loosing to the British in the Opium Wars, and being bullied, massacred and raped by the Japanese repeatedly. All that seems to have changed. China is not the fragmented unorganized empires of the past.

If the US declared China's US debt holding void, they would be no better than a bankrupt state like Argentina. Europe, other than the UK, can no longer be counted on to back US one-sided actions and decisions that only benefit the US. Who knows which way the Russians, Indian, and Pakistanis would jump.

Like all potential "playground bullies" the US needs a counter balance to check the exteme behaviours. China is the only country capable of filling that role.

The US is in decline in its World role, no matter how unpalletable that may be to some Americans.

You are right though, in that if anyone can play off superpowers and always come up winning it will be Thailand.

Edited May 12, 2013 by Baerboxer

[garyk]

Glad my second home here is just that. I am so glad I planned an exit strategy. In a few years I may need it.

[EyesWideOpen]

I see China as a country who does a lot of good in the world producing cost effective products that we all use. I haven't observed the Chinese government threatening others as the North Korean government does. U.S. may need to move some balance of forces to the Philippines and other locations from Japan due to the Japanese nuclear radiation problems and probability for even worse earthquakes. I don't think its due to any military problems with the Chinese. I don't think it would hurt for Thailand to keep open the lines of communications with the Chinese including military forces.

Ask yourself how many countries has China ever invaded or used covert operations to overthrow the legal government in another country?

China is much more clever and subtle and uses economic skill to achieve influence. Just how much of the enormous US debt is owned by China.

PTP better be careful, Barry O will get upset and withdraw his administrations staunch support for the democratically elected populist peoples party if they get to close to China.

China - aren't the Shin clan ethnically Chinese, and does China operate a one party "democracy" favoured by the clan head? Hmm seems to be some synergies here. Maybe the " special friendly criminal" the US issued a visa too, ignoring their normal rules, ain't that friendly after all.

Some interesting possibilities here.

"Ask yourself how many countries has China ever invaded or used covert operations to overthrow the legal government in another country?"

How about Tibet ?? Nothing covert there, China rolled in with heavy equipment...In the past China was too busy killing its own people to ever have any presence on the world stage, but taking over Tibet looked pretty easy .....

US debit is about 16 trillion dollars, China holds slightly over 1 trillion dollars, about the same as Japan. Most of the US debt is held internally.

When China finally get its navy in shape ( currently now a joke) , and starts taking control of islands in the South China Sea, I wonder who those countries will be asking for help from.....

Before Thailand gets too cozy with China, Thailand had better start paying more attention to what China is doing with their economic aid for control program....Regardless of what the moronic leaders of Thailand think, any deal done with China is in essence a deal done with the devil, with the harmful details being found out later. There is no free ride.

Edited May 12, 2013 by EyesWideOpen