Your Most Insightful Predictions For Thailand 2013-2020

[bangkokburning]

Where will Thailand be in 2020 and what will transpire en route?

Real estate bubbles, currency issues, visa issues, farang citizenship, floods/draughts, education, banking, economy micro and macro, big cities, transport, technology and mobile, military, problems in south, environment, green initiatives, airports, finance, tourism, medical costs, insurance and hospitality and overall political (in)stability.

Will the weight of the Thai bureaucracy crush Thailand as Greece?

Edited May 15, 2013 by bangkokburning

[ExpatJ]

I think bangkok and thailand will rise on the coat tails of asean's and china's economic engine- Asia will be the place to be for business and cultural opportunities and innovation, not the the west. 2025-30 central Bangkok will become like Singapore- very expensive, full of relatively well off middle class Thais and wealthy expats.

Any political unrest will be short lived- despite what many here want/ believe- heck look at uk , we had nation wide rioting just a year or so ago and now it's forgotten- nations recover quickly from street unrest in general.

Edited May 15, 2013 by ExpatJ

[craigt3365]

Please, no discussions of the monarchy. You've been warned.

[lovetotravel]

I remember in the 90's tales of Japan's rise to the #1 spot of the world's economies. It sure looked like it would happen. But never did. Same discussions of China's rise to the top exist today. But doubt that will happen either. Here's an interesting analysis of why it might not happen:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/05/09/why-china-cannot-lead-the-global-economy/

The 19th century was the British century. The 20th century was the American century. Will the 21st Century be China’s century?

Most likely not, as China misses four conditions that make economic growth sustainable.

[Issangeorge]

Between now and 2020 there will be a downturn, perhaps a bust. China will experience the same thing, so will be of no help to Thailand. Of course I could be wrong and the bankers right.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 6 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[OZEMADE]

Thailand will become more Modernized/Westernized, the rich will get richer and the Terrorism in the south will get worse.

"O" and Thaksin will be back by then.

Edited May 15, 2013 by OZEMADE

[lannarebirth]

Thaksin makes a non-transparent deal with China to give them a Free Trade Zone in Thalaind. He and his family will make a percentage of every single transaction stemming from it. Casinos come back on the radar.

[OZEMADE]

Thaksin makes a non-transparent deal with China to give them a Free Trade Zone in Thalaind. He and his family will make a percentage of every single transaction stemming from it. Casinos come back on the radar.

But gambling is illegal in Thailand. "O" that's right the Thai Government run the lottery, the Thai mafia run the underground lottery and the Gov and Police run the underground Casino's. Might as well make it legal and stop all the big cash going to Cambodia to the Casinos across the border.

[varun]

- Assuming the AEC is not delayed, an influx of more skilled workers in the Kingdom

- More corruption, lies and denial of accountability

- Hopefully the completion of the MRT extensions

- More condomiums and a likely bursting of the property bubble

- A huge stockpile of rotted rice

[ExpatJ]

I remember in the 90's tales of Japan's rise to the #1 spot of the world's economies. It sure looked like it would happen. But never did. Same discussions of China's rise to the top exist today. But doubt that will happen either. Here's an interesting analysis of why it might not happen:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/05/09/why-china-cannot-lead-the-global-economy/

The 19th century was the British century. The 20th century was the American century. Will the 21st Century be China’s century?

Most likely not, as China misses four conditions that make economic growth sustainable.

Thnaks for posting forbes article- but it is very weak and not at all persuasive. His key points are wrong or misleading:

Too many state owned enterprises? Heck half of UK's companies were state owned in the 1970s- BA, etc. - easily privatized when the time is right (as demonstrated in the UK).

Low population density, fragmented administration and markets? This never stopped the USA from developing economically.

No entrepreneurship in China? Most people would laugh if you said this, plus the Forbes author equates inventing new products with 'entrepreneurship' this is not the definition.

[patongphil]

The brewers of Leo beer will continue to make money as I single handedly keep them busy by maintaining daily consumption.

[His Masters Voice]

I C that BB has a sense of humor - "farang citizenship" -

[Scully]

Joining the Asian there will be an influx of cheap labour from Laos, Cambodia etc.

Still plenty of money being invested in Thailand but this can change overnight, by political unrest (coup), maybe we are witnessing a bubble or something, also the thing which we can't discuss may happen which will trigger the first two.

7 years is a long time and if Thailand gets it right politically, Thailand will prosper, oh and pigs might fly.

[NeverSure]

I remember in the 90's tales of Japan's rise to the #1 spot of the world's economies. It sure looked like it would happen. But never did. Same discussions of China's rise to the top exist today. But doubt that will happen either. Here's an interesting analysis of why it might not happen:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/05/09/why-china-cannot-lead-the-global-economy/

The 19th century was the British century. The 20th century was the American century. Will the 21st Century be China’s century?

Most likely not, as China misses four conditions that make economic growth sustainable.

Thnaks for posting forbes article- but it is very weak and not at all persuasive. His key points are wrong or misleading:

Too many state owned enterprises? Heck half of UK's companies were state owned in the 1970s- BA, etc. - easily privatized when the time is right (as demonstrated in the UK).

Low population density, fragmented administration and markets? This never stopped the USA from developing economically.

No entrepreneurship in China? Most people would laugh if you said this, plus the Forbes author equates inventing new products with 'entrepreneurship' this is not the definition.

Perhaps you forget that China is hard-core communist? Perhaps you forget that the government must own controlling interest in every business? Perhaps you forget that China is run for the benefit of the leaders, where in other countries the businesses are run for the benefit of the private owners? Perhaps you forget that when the company profits go to private owners there is more incentive for people to excel?

Perhaps you forget how the great fortunes were made, speaking of invention and innovation? Who did the railroads? Who figured out how to manufacture cars in an assembly line with standardized, interchangeable parts and made the car affordable even to the employees in the factory? How did Bill Gates get rich? How about Michael Dell? What created Silicon Valley?

The author is right. China is a copier, not an innovator and the innovator and inventor makes the money. China is picking up scraps from the innovators. Or they are hacking into computers to steal the innovation.

As long as the government owns the means of production, and the profits belong to the government, the people will have no motivation to excel.

As a parting shot, this is why Chinese cars (as just one example) are crap. China can access the technology, but the people have no motivation to do better.

[Soutpeel]

As a parting shot, this is why Chinese cars (as just one example) are crap.

Jeeza Clarkson, he of Top Gear, has the same opinion about American cars...

China is a copier, not an innovator

Japan at one time was a "copier" as well and they developed into a highly innovative nation and keeping with motoring theme of my post...developed into the leading car manufacturer in the world...

Personally I believe you are under estimating China..the Chinese goverment realised many years ago, a wholly socialist economic system doest work and adopted limited capitalism you seem to be confusing communism..which is a political ideology and socialism which is an ecomonic system.

[Soutpeel]

My predictions for Thailand 2013-2020

A few coups

Our man in dubai will kick the bucket while on the run

visa and residency restrictions for western farangs will increase significantly in Thailand on the back of the Asean thing.

Thai politians will keep suing each other

Thailand will still apsire to being a hub of something or other

Corruption will be eradicated in Thailand

The BiB will start doing their job

The last 2 are of course a joke and would only happen the day hell freezes over..

[rubberduck]

2025 - Farangs getting important positions in the Thai government, finally. The start of a new Thailand.

[jbrain]

2020 : The national Ombudsman will give the government it's 3745 th deadline to respond to his questions why they issued a new passport to Thaksin.

[jbrain]

China is a copier, not an innovator

Japan at one time was a "copier" as well and they developed into a highly innovative nation and keeping with motoring theme of my post...developed into the leading car manufacturer in the world...

Japan has never been a copier, they took an existing design,and improved it.

[Upnotover]

Chiang Mai will bid for the 2026 Winter Olympics, a spokesman will state that "climate change is certain" and that "we are determined to become the hub of winter sports in ASEAN"

[lovetotravel]

As a parting shot, this is why Chinese cars (as just one example) are crap.

Jeeza Clarkson, he of Top Gear, has the same opinion about American cars...

China is a copier, not an innovator

Japan at one time was a "copier" as well and they developed into a highly innovative nation and keeping with motoring theme of my post...developed into the leading car manufacturer in the world...

Personally I believe you are under estimating China..the Chinese goverment realised many years ago, a wholly socialist economic system doest work and adopted limited capitalism you seem to be confusing communism..which is a political ideology and socialism which is an ecomonic system.

China and America with regards to cars are like comparing apples to oranges. China isn't even in the same league. Or most other categories for that matter.

Because of so many problems with stuff made in China lately, we're trying to find other sources for things we buy.

[nottocus]

Ladyboy PM

[mca]

2025 - Farangs getting important positions in the Thai government, finally. The start of a new Thailand.

And judging by some of the care in the community cases we have posting on here who surprise me by even managing to find their way to the airport unaided let alone Thailand it'll be even more of sh*tfest then it is at the moment.

[ExpatJ]

I remember in the 90's tales of Japan's rise to the #1 spot of the world's economies. It sure looked like it would happen. But never did. Same discussions of China's rise to the top exist today. But doubt that will happen either. Here's an interesting analysis of why it might not happen:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/05/09/why-china-cannot-lead-the-global-economy/

The 19th century was the British century. The 20th century was the American century. Will the 21st Century be China’s century?

Most likely not, as China misses four conditions that make economic growth sustainable.

Thnaks for posting forbes article- but it is very weak and not at all persuasive. His key points are wrong or misleading:

Too many state owned enterprises? Heck half of UK's companies were state owned in the 1970s- BA, etc. - easily privatized when the time is right (as demonstrated in the UK).

Low population density, fragmented administration and markets? This never stopped the USA from developing economically.

No entrepreneurship in China? Most people would laugh if you said this, plus the Forbes author equates inventing new products with 'entrepreneurship' this is not the definition.

Perhaps you forget that China is hard-core communist? Perhaps you forget that the government must own controlling interest in every business? Perhaps you forget that China is run for the benefit of the leaders, where in other countries the businesses are run for the benefit of the private owners? Perhaps you forget that when the company profits go to private owners there is more incentive for people to excel?

Perhaps you forget how the great fortunes were made, speaking of invention and innovation? Who did the railroads? Who figured out how to manufacture cars in an assembly line with standardized, interchangeable parts and made the car affordable even to the employees in the factory? How did Bill Gates get rich? How about Michael Dell? What created Silicon Valley?

The author is right. China is a copier, not an innovator and the innovator and inventor makes the money. China is picking up scraps from the innovators. Or they are hacking into computers to steal the innovation.

As long as the government owns the means of production, and the profits belong to the government, the people will have no motivation to excel.

As a parting shot, this is why Chinese cars (as just one example) are crap. China can access the technology, but the people have no motivation to do better.

Well china has the 2 nd biggest economy in the world and they havent invented a single thing (apparently) and they are rabid commies (apparently) not bad going. Singapore never invented anything and they are richer than Brits per capita. Referencing bill gates and one or two other specific inventors is not an argument- like the people who argue that there is no need to go to university because bill gates dropped out- and then they are surprised when their kids are still dustmen in their 30s.

China has many problems- but not big enough to stop their rise - at the moment.

Edited May 15, 2013 by ExpatJ

[mca]

Actually my most insightful prediction for Thailand is that hotel lobby bands will still include "Hotel California" in their set in 2020. Or 2220 come to that

[samran]

I remember in the 90's tales of Japan's rise to the #1 spot of the world's economies. It sure looked like it would happen. But never did. Same discussions of China's rise to the top exist today. But doubt that will happen either. Here's an interesting analysis of why it might not happen:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/05/09/why-china-cannot-lead-the-global-economy/

The 19th century was the British century. The 20th century was the American century. Will the 21st Century be China’s century?

Most likely not, as China misses four conditions that make economic growth sustainable.

Thnaks for posting forbes article- but it is very weak and not at all persuasive. His key points are wrong or misleading:

Too many state owned enterprises? Heck half of UK's companies were state owned in the 1970s- BA, etc. - easily privatized when the time is right (as demonstrated in the UK).

Low population density, fragmented administration and markets? This never stopped the USA from developing economically.

No entrepreneurship in China? Most people would laugh if you said this, plus the Forbes author equates inventing new products with 'entrepreneurship' this is not the definition.

Perhaps you forget that China is hard-core communist? Perhaps you forget that the government must own controlling interest in every business? Perhaps you forget that China is run for the benefit of the leaders, where in other countries the businesses are run for the benefit of the private owners? Perhaps you forget that when the company profits go to private owners there is more incentive for people to excel?

Perhaps you forget how the great fortunes were made, speaking of invention and innovation? Who did the railroads? Who figured out how to manufacture cars in an assembly line with standardized, interchangeable parts and made the car affordable even to the employees in the factory? How did Bill Gates get rich? How about Michael Dell? What created Silicon Valley?

The author is right. China is a copier, not an innovator and the innovator and inventor makes the money. China is picking up scraps from the innovators. Or they are hacking into computers to steal the innovation.

As long as the government owns the means of production, and the profits belong to the government, the people will have no motivation to excel.

As a parting shot, this is why Chinese cars (as just one example) are crap. China can access the technology, but the people have no motivation to do better.

Obviously this bloke has never heard of Huawei.

[samran]

Actually my most insightful prediction for Thailand is that hotel lobby bands will still include "Hotel California" in their set in 2020. Or 2220 come to that

and the second set will include a gawd awful rendition of the nonsensical 'the wind of change'.

[ripstanley]

The brewers of Leo beer will continue to make money as I single handedly keep them busy by maintaining daily consumption.

+ 1

[maccaroni man]

many of the new generation thais who have studied in the international schools and abroad will be adults and ready to do business. this will mean many of us expats will be able to do business by proxy. Pay backs are coming. Hua Hin will stop being the ugly step child to bangkok, koh samui will get its infrastructure to keep up with the it's continued growth, phucket will be the new pattaya and pattay will become thailands acapulco. China will no longer be the role model if economic growth. Thailand and Indonesia will still rank 1 and 2 as most corrupt asian region countries.

[yourauntbob]

Thailand will continue to be a dog chasing its tail in perpetuity. Faces will change but the end result will be the same for better or worse.