Your Most Insightful Predictions For Thailand 2013-2020

[puck2]

Chiang Mai will bid for the 2026 Winter Olympics, a spokesman will state that "climate change is certain" and that "we are determined to become the hub of winter sports in ASEAN"

They will get it if Blatter is still a member of the IOC

[smokie36]

I predict I will be bored of Bangkok and looking to move to the seaside.

No interest or concern regarding Thailand's political shenanigans.

[overherebc]

Sin Sot will be raised to at least 60,000,000 baht plus and will still be talked about on TV.

Edited May 15, 2013 by overherebc

[bigbamboo]

As a parting shot, this is why Chinese cars (as just one example) are crap.

Jeeza Clarkson, he of Top Gear, has the same opinion about American cars...

China is a copier, not an innovator

Japan at one time was a "copier" as well and they developed into a highly innovative nation and keeping with motoring theme of my post...developed into the leading car manufacturer in the world...

Personally I believe you are under estimating China..the Chinese goverment realised many years ago, a wholly socialist economic system doest work and adopted limited capitalism you seem to be confusing communism..which is a political ideology and socialism which is an ecomonic system.

It used to be said that with most of the world's great innovations the British invented them, the German's perfected them, the Americans marketed them and the Japanese mass produced them.

You can now add to list that the Chinese copied them.

As for Thailand it will clearly be the hub of the world.

[Soutpeel]

As for Thailand it will clearly be the hub of the world.

Never...Thailand clearly see's itself and the hub of the Universe...

[Chittychangchang]

I predict I will be bored of Bangkok and looking to move to the seaside.

No interest or concern regarding Thailand's political shenanigans.

l predict Bangkok will become the new seaside with the floods engulfing Pattaya thus pushing the jet ski operaters to open up shop on the banks of the Menam river.

[jbrain]

I predict I will be bored of Bangkok and looking to move to the seaside.

No interest or concern regarding Thailand's political shenanigans.

l predict Bangkok will become the new seaside with the floods engulfing Pattaya thus pushing the jet ski operaters to open up shop on the banks of the Menam river.

Well if we have to believe the reports about Bangkok sinking faster then expected, then I predict Bangkok actually being part of the sea.

[Chittychangchang]

The blether will reach 1 million likes and JT's keyboard will spontaneously combust.

[terryp]

Only 15 day tourist visas will be available on arrival …the
only other visa available will be a 30 tourist visa to comply with Asean..all
other visas will be gone…..1 million in a Thai bank if you are still married
will get you a 1 year stay.

Foreigners will not be allowed more than a 10 stake in Thai Companys
…unless a multi-national then 49%

Thailand will be in a Civil War before 2020 caused by the
guy in Dubai as he will want a Republic

It will cost more to live in Bangkok than London due to all the Chinesse who move here

I could speculate on other things that just won’t happen so
I will stick with the sure things

[john stevens]

think we are all aware that in the next few years or even just may be this cyear ... the shit is going to hit the fan big time ...........not alllowed to say anymore .....

really now thailand is spinning out of control .... more like the wild west than ever before .......the goverment has really very little intrest .... just thinking about how much money they can scam from diffrent projects ......

thailand use to be a nice place ......... until the thaskin and his greedy clan started robbing the country blind ................. ----

[StrandedBusinessPerson]

Whatever happens, please don't move the three places I go when in town: The Federal, Pan Tip Plaza, and MBK.

[NeverSure]

As a parting shot, this is why Chinese cars (as just one example) are crap.

Jeeza Clarkson, he of Top Gear, has the same opinion about American cars...

China is a copier, not an innovator

Japan at one time was a "copier" as well and they developed into a highly innovative nation and keeping with motoring theme of my post...developed into the leading car manufacturer in the world...

Personally I believe you are under estimating China..the Chinese goverment realised many years ago, a wholly socialist economic system doest work and adopted limited capitalism you seem to be confusing communism..which is a political ideology and socialism which is an ecomonic system.

China is already the world's #1 motor vehicle manufacturer. The US is #2. Japan is #3. (I didn't say China's rigs are any good. They have a huge captive audience.)

The UK and Australia and Thailand are so far down the list I can't find them. Link

Volkswagen of Germany is the world's most profitable auto manufacturer, followed closely by Ford, and GM is the world's third most profitable car company. Those three are also on the list of the world's 50 most profitable companies of any kind. Link

What do they have in common? Democracy and capitalism.

Yes, I know the difference between communism and socialism. China is hard core communist and the government must own more than 1/2 of every company. China is not socialist.

Get back to me in ten years. Thailand and China are going nowhere due to their belief systems and corruption.

[HUAHIN62]

1) There will be 1 million foreigners staying in Thailand of which half will be complaining everyday about trivia or asking the same questions over and over again, on this forum anyway.

2) There will be 2 million people on this forum pretending that they live in Thailand.

3) There will be 500 000 persons (at any given time) that want to come in live in Thailand without money.

4) There will be 500 000 foreigners living in Thailand without money or contributing to the Thai economy, but will still think they are the greatest gift to the country.

5) During the next 7 years foreigners will realise that they can't compare Thailand with their home countries and will start to be objective.

OP let us ask the same question about the US, UK and EU. On this one I would say by 2020 these 3 would just be coming out of the great great depression. On the way to 2020 there would have been an Euro spring (big social-political disruptions) in Spain, Potugal, Italy, Greece and France. The US will be overtaken by China as the worlds biggest economy by 2017 and Asia's economy will be bigger than that of the US, UK and EU combined by 2020 (instead of the estimated 2030). Socialism will be a dirty word.

[pianoman]

I can't speak for all of Thailand, but from what I, and others, see here in Isaan, they are headed for another "Crash" such as in '97....

They are building many new Apartments, Housing projects, and businesses all the while there are many vacant apartments, houses and are complaining about slow to no business... There just does not seem to be any Economical growth to support all of the expantion... Mostly just far too much money available to borrow, and there will be problems when it comes time to pay back those loans...

In Khon Kaen there use to be 3 major Home Improvement stores, now there are over 6 with another one being constructed... Roi Et had only 1 and now has 3 plus another one on the books for next year... Kalasin has a new Lotus, and a "Big C" due to open shortly with rumors of Makro coming soon... Once again with nothing Economically to spur such growth / expantion...

Pianoman

Edited May 16, 2013 by pianoman

[rcalsop]

Perhaps you forget that China is hard-core communist? Perhaps you forget that the government must own controlling interest in every business? Perhaps you forget that China is run for the benefit of the leaders, where in other countries the businesses are run for the benefit of the private owners? Perhaps you forget that when the company profits go to private owners there is more incentive for people to excel?

Perhaps you forget how the great fortunes were made, speaking of invention and innovation? Who did the railroads? Who figured out how to manufacture cars in an assembly line with standardized, interchangeable parts and made the car affordable even to the employees in the factory? How did Bill Gates get rich? How about Michael Dell? What created Silicon Valley?

Not sure where you get your facts I have rarely criticised another poster but sorry mate absolute nonsense .. AS I write this mail sat having my lunchtime 10 mins on Thai visa in He Shan, Mainland China ( Hoxsan local dialect pronunciation ) I am in a factory one of two we own , which is 100% British owned by My self and the Chairman both Brits ... NO government interest or control apart for labour and local regulations as any country . China is certainly not hard core communist it is a socialist approach with hard core capitalist values . the main social issue which will possibly stop full development of China is the lack of social cohesion and ownership 2.5 million migrant workers from with in China that power the development and amazing fast change ,they have no ownership rights in the area they work they cannot own a house or any land because they are not from that region ( with out a house book you can do nothing a bit like thailand ) this creates a society who have no reason to behave correctly in their work area even if they want to ....social benefits ( national insurance ) covering pension , sickness maternity , unemployment , accident cover etc is not fully portable region to region so although employees and employers must pay social contributions employees feel cheated as benefits can only be fully realised in the working district , so a lack of cohesive one nation feeling . A social problem that is a time bomb .. only just being recognised by the leaders . PS our profits go to the owners and employees in special profit share bonuses up to 3 months salary dependant on evaluation and development ... does it work yes owe have the lowest labour turnover in the area .many employees with is over 15 years

[Berkshire]

1) There will be 1 million foreigners staying in Thailand of which half will be complaining everyday about trivia or asking the same questions over and over again, on this forum anyway.

2) There will be 2 million people on this forum pretending that they live in Thailand.

3) There will be 500 000 persons (at any given time) that want to come in live in Thailand without money.

4) There will be 500 000 foreigners living in Thailand without money or contributing to the Thai economy, but will still think they are the greatest gift to the country.

5) During the next 7 years foreigners will realise that they can't compare Thailand with their home countries and will start to be objective.

Funny. Along those lines, I predict that a good number of these Thai-hating malcontents will finally make good on their promise of leaving and immigrate to Myanmar.

Shortly thereafter, the Myanmar-equivalent of TV will be inundated with daily complaints from disenfranchised farangs, whining/whinging about their crappy life in Myanmar. The complaints will include corruption, driving in Myanmar, visa requirements, lack of foreigner rights, dual-pricing, racism, pollution, and of course, being fleeced by wily Burmese women. Said farangs will threaten to leave Myanmar and take their measly pensions with them, thereby causing a crash of the Myanmar economy.

[fxe1200]

To meet the Thai demand of cheap vehicles, car companies in Thailand will eradicate turn signals and mirrors, as they are not being used anyhow.

By the order of the Thaksin clan, which runs the country by then, all available life vest from coastal regions must be send to Bangkok immediately, to be distributed to the people within the submerging Bangkok.

Nuclear reactors will be build, and he first load of nuclear waste will be dumped into Yala, next loads are bound for Narathiwat and Patani.

My remains will be burnt at the Wat Kho Hong in Hat Yai.

[asupeartea]

Contrary to the news, China's been in the dumps since 2008. Aggregate numbers like GDP don't take into account the real lives of the vast majority of people. Hundreds of thousands of small and medium sized companies have closed or gone to loan sharks to survive. Thailand riding on China's coattails would entail massive stimulus into wasteful projects -- like the 27 empty unused CITIES throughout the China -- and the crash/lost years to follow. Just take a look at Japan. 25 years ago I had a Japanese business man tell me how Japanese would become the next world language. We all know how that worked out. Where will Thailand be in 2020? There are lots of possibilities depending on the decisions made along the way. If this administration get the massive loans it's looking to line its pockets, then the Thai PEOPLE be really bad off.

I remember in the 90's tales of Japan's rise to the #1 spot of the world's economies. It sure looked like it would happen. But never did. Same discussions of China's rise to the top exist today. But doubt that will happen either. Here's an interesting analysis of why it might not happen:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/05/09/why-china-cannot-lead-the-global-economy/

The 19th century was the British century. The 20th century was the American century. Will the 21st Century be China’s century?

Most likely not, as China misses four conditions that make economic growth sustainable.

[craigt3365]

Please, no discussions of the monarchy. You've been warned.

A few posts have been removed from view. Please be advised by the above public warning....again....

[rcalsop]

Contrary to the news, China's been in the dumps since 2008. Aggregate numbers like GDP don't take into account the real lives of the vast majority of people. Hundreds of thousands of small and medium sized companies have closed or gone to loan sharks to survive. Thailand riding on China's coattails would entail massive stimulus into wasteful projects -- like the 27 empty unused CITIES throughout the China -- and the crash/lost years to follow. Just take a look at Japan. 25 years ago I had a Japanese business man tell me how Japanese would become the next world language. We all know how that worked out. Where will Thailand be in 2020? There are lots of possibilities depending on the decisions made along the way. If this administration get the massive loans it's looking to line its pockets, then the Thai PEOPLE be really bad off.

I remember in the 90's tales of Japan's rise to the #1 spot of the world's economies. It sure looked like it would happen. But never did. Same discussions of China's rise to the top exist today. But doubt that will happen either. Here's an interesting analysis of why it might not happen:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/05/09/why-china-cannot-lead-the-global-economy/

The 19th century was the British century. The 20th century was the American century. Will the 21st Century be China’s century?

Most likely not, as China misses four conditions that make economic growth sustainable.

Twice in one day I must disagree (this time with less typos I hope ) your comment Aggregate numbers like GDP don't take into account the real lives of the vast majority of people. Hundreds of thousands of small and medium sized companies have closed or gone to loan sharks to survive.

A generality that is just not true an example and a follow on from my last reply .. my employees now work a 40 week as standard 5 days and OT of max 9 hours week (China Labour Law ) this is expected and requested by the local non migrant labour force approx 50% also more and more of my staff are purchasing new or better houses and have the same desires you and I have .. a simple example of change three years ago I spent time and money on providing bicycle parking at the factory .. last year I had to upgrade this to motorcycle and scooter parking .. this year infact this week I had to plan and mark out car parking spaces for employees .. that is a rapid pace of change .. many migrant employees wish to settle in the area but because of the rules cannot invest in property as per previous post . there is a huge change in the actual life style of the average worker and more importantly their expectations and dreams .. note we are not in a mainstream city its is an average small town by Chinese standards .

The big changes that need to happen to allow China become really great stable power are to unite the nation, educate its people to what China is and create a true feeling for one nation , that with the huge struggle to reduce serious corruption which is already happening at a very fast pace from the seniors in the Party right down to local offices and employees , it is real and fairly effective so far my parties and gifts at Chinese New year were a tenth of previous years ... As for Human rights some way to go yet but social chat rooms and internet information exchange the voice of the people is clearly heard and shared and although the government try to censor and control it they do listen . Do not get me wrong I am not a Sinophile if that is a word I just want to give a view from my reality that I now work in .. PS I would still rather be in Thailand or even better Penang , but until my son is ready for university my return to Thailand will be postponed apart from great holidays spent repairing my houses after the floods still not finished sorry correction !!!!!! My wife has the houses .. I am just a migrant with no rights .

[rcalsop]

As it is a quiet day at work I can offer another view of other countries development I lived and worked in Bangladesh for many years ,and ten years ago ..to follow on with the Bicycle example in the above mail I had to arrange company interest free loans to allow employees to be able to buy bicycles and then find a local bicycle manufacturer to sell at cost to my employees ... I recently visited Bangladesh after 6 years and found no change at all . little development apart from the upper social levels .. total stagnation ...

to return to the actual posting !!!!!

Your Most Insightful Predictions For Thailand 2013-2020

sorry they nearly all involve Monarchy ...which are forbidden comments .. .. we have established new business in Thailand and on personal and business thinking we still follow the golden rule "never put more into Thailand than you are prepared to walk way from ... only with the shirt on your back a passport in your hand and a plane ticket " that is our 10 year plan for business in Thailand

[NCC1701A]

U.S. military returns to Thailand with a Air Force base in Udon Thani and a U.S. Army Base in the South near Hat Yai.

UN peace keepers guard southern border after the start of the war.

Thai government fends off communist Chinese economic control by playing U.S. against China.

CIA and Russian mafia work together inside Thailand on "security".

China no longer buys U.S. debt.

The gloves come off and U.S. Federal Reserve Bank does whatever it needs to do the retain the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.

The United States, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Laos, Myanmar and the Philippines form a "ASIA NATO" defense pact to contain communist China's military as communist China's "economy" implodes and civil war breaks out in China. Federal Reserve and the World Bank funds and controls "ASIA NATO". India and Australia are also involved supplying troops.

The train wreck E.U. economy implodes, expats pensions and other retirement incomes are decimated. Thailand suffers slowdown in tourism and expat spending. E.U. starts recovery by 2020. Some expats go home to "deflationary" E.U.

U.S. Federal Reserve Bank is forced to print One Trillion dollars per year until the debt is approximately $25 trillion by 2020.

Somewhere along the line they declare a bank holiday and devalue the U.S. dollar by 50% overnight.

U.S. Social Security payments and Government and private pensions for expats are decimated. Thailand suffers slowdown in tourism and expat spending. Massive inflation in the U.S., the outside world is impossibly expensive, followed by large deflationary event. Some American expats return to U.S.

Slow inflation and then large deflationary event in thailand. Beer is 20 cents a bottle.

Thai military maintains order during economic "event".

Thai's leave big cities and return to traditional living in the country.

Baht is 20 to 1 USD by 2018, then 60 to 1 by 2020.

Hot money flows out of Thailand as Europe and the U.S. real estate markets and stock markets become dirt cheap.

Gold is $3500 USD and then $250.

Expats and Thai's who own gold retain their "store of wealth".

Oil is $30 a barrel.

200 square meter penthouse condo in Bangkok in 2020 is $25k USD.

All commercial airline flights originating from the Middle East to Thailand are closed due to the war.

Thai workers see employment boom in the former nation of North Korea cleaning up radiation.

Expats in Thailand rent farms and form farming communities. Water is like gold.

Boom in Agriculture as Northern Thailand controls food supply.

Monitoring of radiation coming from the middle east is a hot topic on Thai Visa in Thailand.

Phuket is renamed St. Petersburg.

In 2018 everyone on Thai Visa will still be warning me my Thai bargirl girlfriend is going to kill me for my money.

[asupeartea]

Well, I'm glad that you can tell me that things are good there. It is not the information I have been getting but I certainly am glad to be wrong, at least in some places if not all.

Contrary to the news, China's been in the dumps since 2008. Aggregate numbers like GDP don't take into account the real lives of the vast majority of people. Hundreds of thousands of small and medium sized companies have closed or gone to loan sharks to survive. Thailand riding on China's coattails would entail massive stimulus into wasteful projects -- like the 27 empty unused CITIES throughout the China -- and the crash/lost years to follow. Just take a look at Japan. 25 years ago I had a Japanese business man tell me how Japanese would become the next world language. We all know how that worked out. Where will Thailand be in 2020? There are lots of possibilities depending on the decisions made along the way. If this administration get the massive loans it's looking to line its pockets, then the Thai PEOPLE be really bad off.

I remember in the 90's tales of Japan's rise to the #1 spot of the world's economies. It sure looked like it would happen. But never did. Same discussions of China's rise to the top exist today. But doubt that will happen either. Here's an interesting analysis of why it might not happen:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/05/09/why-china-cannot-lead-the-global-economy/

The 19th century was the British century. The 20th century was the American century. Will the 21st Century be China’s century?
Most likely not, as China misses four conditions that make economic growth sustainable.

Twice in one day I must disagree (this time with less typos I hope ) your comment Aggregate numbers like GDP don't take into account the real lives of the vast majority of people. Hundreds of thousands of small and medium sized companies have closed or gone to loan sharks to survive.

A generality that is just not true an example and a follow on from my last reply .. my employees now work a 40 week as standard 5 days and OT of max 9 hours week (China Labour Law ) this is expected and requested by the local non migrant labour force approx 50% also more and more of my staff are purchasing new or better houses and have the same desires you and I have .. a simple example of change three years ago I spent time and money on providing bicycle parking at the factory .. last year I had to upgrade this to motorcycle and scooter parking .. this year infact this week I had to plan and mark out car parking spaces for employees .. that is a rapid pace of change .. many migrant employees wish to settle in the area but because of the rules cannot invest in property as per previous post . there is a huge change in the actual life style of the average worker and more importantly their expectations and dreams .. note we are not in a mainstream city its is an average small town by Chinese standards .

The big changes that need to happen to allow China become really great stable power are to unite the nation, educate its people to what China is and create a true feeling for one nation , that with the huge struggle to reduce serious corruption which is already happening at a very fast pace from the seniors in the Party right down to local offices and employees , it is real and fairly effective so far my parties and gifts at Chinese New year were a tenth of previous years ... As for Human rights some way to go yet but social chat rooms and internet information exchange the voice of the people is clearly heard and shared and although the government try to censor and control it they do listen . Do not get me wrong I am not a Sinophile if that is a word I just want to give a view from my reality that I now work in .. PS I would still rather be in Thailand or even better Penang , but until my son is ready for university my return to Thailand will be postponed apart from great holidays spent repairing my houses after the floods still not finished sorry correction !!!!!! My wife has the houses .. I am just a migrant with no rights .

[Thereisnoif]

The rich and powerful will keep on enjoying total impunity in this feudal kleptocracy .

[BahBahBoBo]

China is a copier, not an innovator

Japan at one time was a "copier" as well and they developed into a highly innovative nation and keeping with motoring theme of my post...developed into the leading car manufacturer in the world...

Japan has never been a copier, they took an existing design,and improved it.

Xerox first industrialised the copier but it was the Japanese who refined the copier and brought it into the modern era

[DiNiro]

YEAR 2020:

Thailand announces they will take a serious look at the saudi blue diamond caper and the mysterious murders.

[Soutpeel]

YEAR 2020:

Thailand announces they will take a serious look at the saudi blue diamond caper and the mysterious murders.

YEAR 2020:

Fugitive Ex-PM Thaksin via Skype holographic communicator from Dubai stated that the national reconcilation bill will be signed very soon and on returning back to Thailand he will make all Thai's multi-millionaires within 6 months, and cure all forms of cancer...

[pomchop]

Thai visa will stil be full of posters telling you what a fool you were to buy a condo for 100 k usd that is then worth 300 k.

[fletchsmile]

Thailand "same same but not much different"

In 2020 "Thailand will have potential". In the same way it did in the past, and the present, and the future. Of course, realising that potential is a totally different matter - which is why "Thailand will always have potential"

Cheers

Fletch

[PaullyW]

ASEAN will bring FFC (free flow of cock competitiveness).

More businessmen from surrounding SEA countries who are able to work in Thailand will no doubt exploit the best resource Thailand has to offer the world: easy women. I know plenty of Singaporean men who already have wives/girlfriends in Thailand.

Thai men will increasingly find themselves outdone by Malays, Singaporeans, Indonesians, etc. which will result in some tensions among the SEA Asian male crowds. This, however, will have an easing effect on us Farangs as Thai men will finally have much tougher competition for their top end women.

Edited May 17, 2013 by PaullyW