Set Index And Thai Mutual Funds

[fletchsmile]

AyG

Cheers for the thoughts again. Always good to get some fresh ideas, particularly specific investments to look at. Infrastructure funds is something I've considered in the past, but never really been that much on my radar screen. Looks interesting, and something I'll look more into. Any other thoughts on the subject/ others?

Think you're right they could have a place in portfolios. I wouldn't see them as replacements/ substitutes for bonds though. More a complement with different behaviour characteristics, useful for diversification. Think the fact sheet for the Lazard function you mention sums up well. Standard deviation/ volatility is way higher than bonds, although risk-adjusted returns are higher.

http://www.lazardnet.com/us/docs/sp2/10612/LazardGlobalListedInfrastructurePortfolio_FactCard_2014Q3.pdf?pagename=Lazard+Global+Listed+Infrastructure+Portfolio

Had a look also at First State. I like them generally as fund managers. Also I checked out their performance in 2008. The particular one I looked at fell from 107.41 on 2/1/2008 to 91.95 by end of the year, so down about 15% in sterling terms. So that's similar downward direction in that particular crisis year, and although much better than your average equity market, the correlation was still positive, with a drop in price/ negative returns for the year

http://www.firststate.co.uk/uk/private/Price___Performance/Price_and_Performance/

Something like TMB's corporate bond fund for example - not a great fund BTW if you look at it isolation, but useful in some respects for reasonable quality Thai bond exposure in THB, and gives an idea of some of the diversification that I want in my portfolio

In 2008 it returned positive + 3.4%, so the negative correlation going up when most things fell during that crisis year, was useful. Also worth bearing in mind that in THB terms (where my outgoings are) the Thai bond had zero FX risk from a THB perspective of someone living here and concerned about THB.

2008 GBP also fell 23.7% vs THB in that year too from 66.9 to just over 51. So if I was thinking about my life and expenses here, I'd have that on top. To be fair I measure my assets in both GBP and THB terms, so it's swings and roundabouts. I do have a fair few million baht to pay in education fees over the next decade or so though, as well.

Anyway, gives an idea of why THB bonds may be of interest to someone like me. In a year most things tanked, and I got hit by FX (from a Thailand perspective) because of a western crisis, Thailand did hold up well, as did it's bonds, and it's currency was something else again - most welcome.

Thailand equity markets/SET tanked though by over 40% like many equity markets. So it was nice to have some THB bond exposure on my side - and I wish I'd had more actually . Anyway just some context for where I'm coming from for my circumstances, and what I'd like to do better next time

As investments in isolation I'd much prefer the infrastructure funds you mentioned. Definitely will look more into it, so if you have any further thoughts...

Cheers

Fletch

Edited January 16, 2015 by fletchsmile

[AyG]

While sometimes I might have skipped one asset class or more, what I find is each crisis can be different and affect me in different ways. It's also sod's law that when the next crisis hits, the asset class I miss will be the one I need most. You never know exactly which crisis will hit exactly when and in exactly what way for impacts

So while I'm still not a great fan of bonds, they have their place. Some behave more like equity and can be correlated, some much less correlated. Generally lower returns than I used to get, but less volatility and risk too. Even less of a fan of gold, but have some of that too just in case.

I thought you were trying to simplify your affairs. Life would be a lot simpler without gold and conventional bonds, neither of which I feel a need to hold. (And with gold, I couldn't even make a half-baked argument for holding it, though some of the funds I invest in hold some.)

We're told we should diversify, but really can't tell in advance how well we're doing since correlations between asset classes change over time. It's only with the benefit of hindsight that we know where the best diversifiers were. Even then the level of diversification can be poor.

For me, not working and living off my investments, my approach is to keep enough cash in THB to tide me over for a few years should there be a market crash or a major change in exchange rates, always hoping that there will be a recovery within 3-5 years. (I do, however, have a recurring nightmare in which John Maynard Keynes appears and says to me "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".)

I also divide my investments into three "buckets" of roughly 30% each. The first is my cautious bucket. There's nothing in it which has ever had a draw down of more than 10%. If all my other investments were wiped out, but this bucket survived relatively intact, I wouldn't starve. The second is core investments (UK, European, Asia-Pacific equities). And the last is "speculative" (emerging markets, natural resources). So, I try to balance my fear and my greed. The final 10-or-so% is held in assets purely to diversify (though I do expect them to provide an inflation+ return over the economic cycle): property, infrastructure.

[AyG]

As investments in isolation I'd much prefer the infrastructure funds you mentioned. Definitely will look more into it, so if you have any further thoughts...

Just a quick comment: it might be worth keeping an eye on investment trusts such as Bilfinger Berger Global Infrastructure, John Laing Infrastructure, HICL Infrastucture. They are currently trading at ridiculous premiums to NAV (15-20%), but if this falls they could be a good investment.

[fletchsmile]

I thought you were trying to simplify your affairs. Life would be a lot simpler without gold and conventional bonds, neither of which I feel a need to hold. (And with gold, I couldn't even make a half-baked argument for holding it, though some of the funds I invest in hold some.)

We're told we should diversify, but really can't tell in advance how well we're doing since correlations between asset classes change over time. It's only with the benefit of hindsight that we know where the best diversifiers were. Even then the level of diversification can be poor.

For me, not working and living off my investments, my approach is to keep enough cash in THB to tide me over for a few years should there be a market crash or a major change in exchange rates, always hoping that there will be a recovery within 3-5 years. (I do, however, have a recurring nightmare in which John Maynard Keynes appears and says to me "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".)

I also divide my investments into three "buckets" of roughly 30% each. The first is my cautious bucket. There's nothing in it which has ever had a draw down of more than 10%. If all my other investments were wiped out, but this bucket survived relatively intact, I wouldn't starve. The second is core investments (UK, European, Asia-Pacific equities). And the last is "speculative" (emerging markets, natural resources). So, I try to balance my fear and my greed. The final 10-or-so% is held in assets purely to diversify (though I do expect them to provide an inflation+ return over the economic cycle): property, infrastructure.

Yes I'm aiming to simplify. The world seems to get more complicated by the day tho' Actually the framework and strategies are in place, and I have all the major asset classes: equities, cash. bonds, commodities, property in there to an extent, also similar for currencies.

What I'm mainly looking for though is to change the weightings - less equities and more of the others. With the examples above of why in 2008 commodities and bonds were useful - just next time I want more of them, as in 2008 my total assets fell 11% in GBP terms and 32% in THB terms. What if the following year had been more of the same?

I weathered 2008 quite easily though as I was earning, plus I had sufficient cash in reserve. The following year my assets were up +41% in GBP terms and +49% in THB terms. So 2008 quickly became history and by the end of 2009 had been more than made up. "Back testing" my portfolios I'd like to reduce the volatility and bonds/ commodities would have done that. I'd simply like to reduce the downturns (-11% and -32%) and am willing to sacrifice some of the upturns (+41% and 49%)

Having a good few years of cash to see you thru is not a totally foolproof strategy tho. The other question we need to ask is what happens next time if the crash is accompanied by a bank collapse in the place(s) you keep most of your cash. The US and UK banking sectors were in bad shape. While very low probability we have to think what happens if they did crash.

At some point US will lose its place as the world's reserve currency and one day will not be able to print its way out of things. With the way relations are between US and Russia, if the US were to further p*ss off other players like China even more than they do now, it's not inconceivable that given the right conditions and timing those countries could decide it's time for payback - collapse the dollar and US economy/banks when they're most vulnerable. Yes China owns a lot of US bonds - however, at some point they may simply calculate it would be in their interests to write them off and destroy the US economically, and while they too might hurt big time, they would be better placed to survive. I'm sure Russia would join in, or even start off given a chance

I also did well by having cash in the Thai banking sector, and felt safer having money here in Thailand than in US and UK banks where you really didn't know what was going to happen next. I was actually working for a Thai bank and in the meetings on the subject, and knowing the bank's financials was pretty comfortable. Again although, very low probability what would people do if 2008 repeated and the Thai banking sector collapsed at the same time (or any/all banks important to them). The sovereign deposit guarantee is no use if the country is bankrupted too. Very low probability for Thailand but not impossible. These are Black Swan events, very low probability but high impact.

So good equity investments + property + cash reserve isn't enough for me. I also want the bonds and commodities in there too.

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

Not expecting big things from global equity markets this year.

Looks like there will be some opportunities in oil at some point, so am looking into ETFs on that. Tisco and other fund management houses here in Thailand have funds that feed into global oil funds linked to the commodity price. While Thai funds are one way in, they are a bit more expensive, and only price once a day, so not bad if you're taking a longer view or don't have alternative ways, but offshore via an ETF is easier and cheaper if someone already has offshore accounts. Not sure yet when will be appropriate, but will continue to watch. Also energy stocks have been beat up indiscriminately which will be another route. Question is when?

Added a little more gold/silver and platinum in ETFs towards the end of 2014. If the world generally struggles these will be nice to have increased exposure to, and I still need to add more.

The only investment I've made in 2015 with any conviction is adding to Singapore REITs.

SK7/OUEHT

ND8U/FCOT

With yields of 6%+ and price/book NAVs <1 I'm comfortable with these.

I tidied up a little in the UK too, I'd one small holding in a US equity active managed fund which I sold and added into the US equity index tracker I already have. Aside from one US smaller companies fund I hold, all my US funds are now in tracker funds. For the US market I really can't find funds that add value, so the main one I like is Legal & General US tracker, with a fee of 0.1% p.a. My UK, Europe, EM and Thailand funds I still prefer actively managed and prepared to pay a bit more for superior performance which I generally get. For US equities tho' it's not worth the effort.

Later in the month I'll start adding to my favourite investments: LTFs, as I always do. Same amount each month for the first 10 months of the year, as usual.

What's anyone else been buying / selling?

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

I think the SET will end higher this year, but again am not expecting the same level of gains as 2014. Should be worthwhile though not spectacular. Any really big surprise movement would likely be on the downside.The market still looks a bit overvalued and not cheap, but if looking long term looks OK, although less attractive than in the late 1990's and 2000's. Plus Thailand regularly shoots itself in the foot, and you never know when it will pick up the gun to do so.

More interesting is the SET50 options market on TFEX. People seem scared of a pullback in Thai equity markets at the moment. As a result put options are selling quite a bit higher than fair value - often around 3 - 7 points. Similarly futures are lower than theoretical values as people seem more ready to sell than buy.

So I've sold a few put options which are out of the money on the SET50 to generate premium income. If people are scared and paying more, I'm happy to take some of that risk given the extra pricing, as put options are selling for higher than their theoretical prices. Still need to keep my limits on how much risk I take and the downside too. As long as it doesn't fall more than 10% by end of March, I'll be very happy with the way things turn out. Remembering last month was one of the biggest single day falls in a long time of 9.3% in the SET and 14% on futures. I think it's a good opportunity. Just need to watch the downside.

I've also sold a few call options which are out of the money. I'd have like to have sold more, but the pricing really isn't worthwhile. Whereas puts are trading above fair value and interesting if you can take the downside risk if it goes wrong, calls are generally below fair value. I actually prefer selling calls as I'm already heavily long Thai equities via mutual funds, so even if I do pay out (rare), it gets dwarfed by the return on my investments. Unfortunately no-one's that interested on the buy side, and people seem more into protecting their downside. The market would have to rise more than 15% for me to lose out. Think there's almost no chance of a 15% rally before March.

So basically I'm looking at SET50 not falling by more than 10% and not rising by more than 15% before March in terms of options trading. The risk for me is really a sudden shock to the downside, as I think there's almost no chance of the +15% upside shock

While I think I should be fine on the downside, I've taken out about as much as I'm comfortable with. Don't want to get greedy and risk throwing away the last few good years returns on options trading though, as it could be quickly lost on TFEX if you get greedy and don't manage the risks. Also the market isn't that liquid at times, so no guarantee of being able to close out at a reasonable price if you need to. So up to 10% drop I'm happy, 15% drop I'd be annoyed, and 20% I'd be uncomfortable. Did think of adding more capital into my trading account. Decided against it though

Futures I really don't want to play there. The market is all over the place at the moment, and I really wouldn't like to call whether it will be up or down in the next few weeks. I don't mind the options route of not up more than X% and not down more than Y%, but I really don't want to place bets on which direction on which day or month even. The most likely way I'd take out any futures contract would be simply to hedge options that are going the wrong way and there's no liquidity to close out. Futures are usually more liquid. So if the SET50 starts falling by close to 10% and I can't close the puts I've sold, I'd sell a few futures to cap the risk. Otherwise not interested in them as a trade in their own right for now.

Cheers

Fletch

Edited January 19, 2015 by fletchsmile

[ExpatJ]

I am in process of selling my condo in jakarta - getting rupiah. HSBC Indonesia offered me 10% interest per year in a time deposit account if i park the money with them. Will keep that there until rupiah strengthens against the dollar. (If i was a single man i might have retired now and lived on this interest, even with the exchange rate hit from converting rupiah to US$!)

I am going to put aside some time to do some technical analysis investing in the SET- primarily using RSI indicator- had some success in the past and quite fun - basically buying selling within days/weeks.

Edited January 20, 2015 by ExpatJ

[AyG]

For the US market I really can't find funds that add value

It's a tough search. However, I have recently bought into one that I like the look of.

ChartingPDF.pdf

[BlackJack]

I thought the US $ would crash and fall

however the US has managed again to break every fundamental law regarding banking and finances - they have even managed to make so many derivatives on gold that they can actually control the price and keep it exactly where they want it.

Its amazing that the derivatives market goes into the trillions and this goes into manipulating the markets around the World to get what the US and Israel want.

1 to crush Russia

2 to stop Irans nuclear program

I know think that as the US can just print money at will that (although its worthless) it will be one of the currencies left standing.

The end game is consolidation.

Should the interest rate in the US increase you will see money flooding back in - away from emerging markets - crash boom opera again. Shall we see half finished buildings in Bangkok again? Vacant rooms, condos?

So my game plan is to work my business, get some US $ and forget the rigged markets for a while.

break

[fletchsmile]

I am in process of selling my condo in jakarta - getting rupiah. HSBC Indonesia offered me 10% interest per year in a time deposit account if i park the money with them. Will keep that there until rupiah strengthens against the dollar. (If i was a single man i might have retired now and lived on this interest, even with the exchange rate hit from converting rupiah to US$!)

I am going to put aside some time to do some technical analysis investing in the SET- primarily using RSI indicator- had some success in the past and quite fun - basically buying selling within days/weeks.

I had some good years in the late 90's early 2000's with interest on IDR bank accounts. I was getting over 50% on deposit accounts and more still on fixed deposit. IDR had already tanked. There was still the risk of it weakening further which would offset any interest earned. The key for that though was going to the stronger local banks, I used BCA, Mandiri and Danamon were others. Yes you were taking additional credit risk, but the reward was worth it, as I'd also local Indo friends who like me were working in that sector to help sort the wheat from the chaff. The international banks were obviously paying less.

Even with the risk of IDR depreciating further 10% sounds a reasonable rate to give some protection against adverse currency depreciation. Might still be worth checking out what some of the local banks offer too. I'm not really in touch with it now, but if you can take a little extra credit risk on top of the FX risk you're taking, for a part of your money, it might be worthwhile looking at the stronger local banks. Generally they are not as strong as Thai banks, but the stronger ones are in decent shape if you look at say the S&P reports.

Another country to do that is Vietnam. VND has stabilised a lot in recent years. They offer decent rates too, and while some FX depreciation is likely, it might be interesting for some. The government also sets policies on what exchange rates they want, and while the trend is for VND to weaken, the resettings have been small in the last couple of years, eg VND 21,000 to 22,000. I'd be less comfortable with the credit risk tho. Vietnamese banks are generally worse credits than Indo, and their reporting is much less transparent. While their capital adequacies may look comparable at first sight, the accounting standards are behind, and it's well known that the non performing loans reflected on their books are quite a bit lower than reality.

These days the main factor for me though, was simplifying things, as I no longer want to tie up money in the like of Vietnam or Indo. As a single guy who used to like travelling and partying in some of SE Asia's cities, I knew I'd be back from time to time, and they could be useful cash reserves too without getting stung on FX for expenses. Times change tho

Cheers

Fletch

[ExpatJ]

I am in process of selling my condo in jakarta - getting rupiah. HSBC Indonesia offered me 10% interest per year in a time deposit account if i park the money with them. Will keep that there until rupiah strengthens against the dollar. (If i was a single man i might have retired now and lived on this interest, even with the exchange rate hit from converting rupiah to US$!)

I am going to put aside some time to do some technical analysis investing in the SET- primarily using RSI indicator- had some success in the past and quite fun - basically buying selling within days/weeks.

I had some good years in the late 90's early 2000's with interest on IDR bank accounts. I was getting over 50% on deposit accounts and more still on fixed deposit. IDR had already tanked. There was still the risk of it weakening further which would offset any interest earned. The key for that though was going to the stronger local banks, I used BCA, Mandiri and Danamon were others. Yes you were taking additional credit risk, but the reward was worth it, as I'd also local Indo friends who like me were working in that sector to help sort the wheat from the chaff. The international banks were obviously paying less.

Even with the risk of IDR depreciating further 10% sounds a reasonable rate to give some protection against adverse currency depreciation. Might still be worth checking out what some of the local banks offer too. I'm not really in touch with it now, but if you can take a little extra credit risk on top of the FX risk you're taking, for a part of your money, it might be worthwhile looking at the stronger local banks. Generally they are not as strong as Thai banks, but the stronger ones are in decent shape if you look at say the S&P reports.

Another country to do that is Vietnam. VND has stabilised a lot in recent years. They offer decent rates too, and while some FX depreciation is likely, it might be interesting for some. The government also sets policies on what exchange rates they want, and while the trend is for VND to weaken, the resettings have been small in the last couple of years, eg VND 21,000 to 22,000. I'd be less comfortable with the credit risk tho. Vietnamese banks are generally worse credits than Indo, and their reporting is much less transparent. While their capital adequacies may look comparable at first sight, the accounting standards are behind, and it's well known that the non performing loans reflected on their books are quite a bit lower than reality.

These days the main factor for me though, was simplifying things, as I no longer want to tie up money in the like of Vietnam or Indo. As a single guy who used to like travelling and partying in some of SE Asia's cities, I knew I'd be back from time to time, and they could be useful cash reserves too without getting stung on FX for expenses. Times change tho

Cheers

Fletch

Thanks for the tip about local banks. Very useful

[fletchsmile]

For the US market I really can't find funds that add value

It's a tough search. However, I have recently bought into one that I like the look of.

ChartingPDF.pdf

Had a quick look at that. Didn't really meet my criteria, and wasn't really convinced to be honest, but worth a look. Would be looking for more reasons as to why they might be able to continue that 3 year out performance.

Starting with the historic data, it's history was only 4 years, which is on the short side.

The 3 year cumulative beats the index, although over 1 year the index beat it. I don't usually attach much importance to a single year, but when the cumulatives only go out to 1 and 3 years it's more relevant. I also like to see at least the 5 year, and 10 if possible.

For discrete years: 2 years it beat the index and 2 it didn't, which again isn't convincing.

The points above would usually mean it wouldn't get much further for me.

I also like to look at the fund management house which can impact things like governance, discipline and research, and I also like to understand the fund strategy and where the fund is targeted, in addition to why it has outperformed, as well as fund manager's tenor.

It's not a name I know much about either, so I did a little further digging and came across, what is probably the US version run along similar lines. Seems like it's not a completely new fund but an extension/ version of a similar existing one. Not sure if you've seen, but you might want to check out the following

https://www.dodgeandcox.com/performance.asp

https://www.dodgeandcox.com/stockfund.asp

https://www.dodgeandcox.com/pdf/shareholder_reports/dc_stock_fund_fact_sheet.pdf

That fund is actually under an investment committee of 9 people. While that does give consistency and continuity, you have to wonder how decisions are reached, and are they optimal or compromises? Also would that impact the speed of decisions and therefore opportunities. Getting more than 2 or 3 people in the same place at the same time to agree can be tough, and you have to wonder how they do it with a committee of 9?

The US version gives an indication of the quality of the fund management company. There you can see longer term performance. Again outperforms quite well over 3 years, but not over 1, suggesting the fund is similar in nature.

More interestingly from Dodge and Cox:

5 years = 15.56% p.a. for the fund vs 15.46% for the index. Pretty average. Only 0.1% pa.a out performance is negligible

10 years = 7.13% p.a. for the fund and 7.68% for the index. 0.55% p.a. under performance puts me right off

Worth mentioning they go back to 1965 and since inception 11.9% vs 8.95% in their favour, but I'm not really that inclined to attach much importance to those much older years. Would have been a nice add on if the 5 and 10 years were strong, but they aren't

Charges for their fund were 0.52%, and I'm guessing the version above with only 4 years history would be a little higher being outside the US. All just on historic data given the last 10 years, particularly the 5 and 10 cumulatives it wouldn't really meet my criteria to pay an extra 0.4% or so above the 0.1% I'm paying on the index tracker fund.

Cheers

Fletch

Edited January 20, 2015 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

I thought the US $ would crash and fall

however the US has managed again to break every fundamental law regarding banking and finances - they have even managed to make so many derivatives on gold that they can actually control the price and keep it exactly where they want it.

Its amazing that the derivatives market goes into the trillions and this goes into manipulating the markets around the World to get what the US and Israel want.

1 to crush Russia

2 to stop Irans nuclear program

I know think that as the US can just print money at will that (although its worthless) it will be one of the currencies left standing.

The end game is consolidation.

Should the interest rate in the US increase you will see money flooding back in - away from emerging markets - crash boom opera again. Shall we see half finished buildings in Bangkok again? Vacant rooms, condos?

So my game plan is to work my business, get some US $ and forget the rigged markets for a while.

Yes the US does seem to have a habit of bouncing back. For a few years now I've believed one day it won't bounce back quite so easily. So it makes sense to me to think about the what ifs? Particularly on losing its role as global currency reserve, and also the way it rubs up other countries the wrong way, like Russia and China, but not limited to them, plus it seems to have lost its moral compass on many levels.

Another one to ponder is how real is what you hear from the US government and FED. They're not exactly people you can take at face value based on the lies we've heard on the dubious practices we've seen. Not to say they are like that always, but there have been enough events in the last couple of decades where anyone would have to be crazy to just believe and rely on them at face value.

I started watching the following video/ interview on "Project Prophecy". I don't know the guy being interviewed and to what extent this is just selling his book. However, there are a lot of things in there that get raised that have some real basis in truth, and are thoughts I've had over the last couple of decades.

He touches on Russia, China, FEDs balance and leverage, derivatives etc. On the banking side there's definitely at least a few points that ring true to me

Haven't finished it yet, and haven't really made up my mind on it, and no doubt some healthy cynicism is called for. On the other hand, they make some good points on some key themes that things aren't as rosy as your average US citizen thinks...

Worth a look:

http://pro.moneymappress.com/MMRBSSH39PPM3/LMMRR134/?h=true

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

Just finished that video. Here's the sales pitch at the end. $39 blah blah blah and free this and that. Bit disappointing it ended that way.

https://purchases.moneymappress.com/MMRBSSH39PPM3/LMMRR134/index.htm?pageNumber=2&h=true&link_source=button&vidTime=46

Have to say though quite a lot of the points did resonate. Worth thinking about, when preparing for adverse scenarios, and just happened to come across it at a time that was relevant to some of the posts above.

Just puts me off when people then link it to a sale, where they're usually trying to hook you in and get you to forget about the renewal a year later which automatically comes up on your CC

Cheers

Fletch

Edited January 20, 2015 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

I am in process of selling my condo in jakarta - getting rupiah. HSBC Indonesia offered me 10% interest per year in a time deposit account if i park the money with them. Will keep that there until rupiah strengthens against the dollar. (If i was a single man i might have retired now and lived on this interest, even with the exchange rate hit from converting rupiah to US$!)

I am going to put aside some time to do some technical analysis investing in the SET- primarily using RSI indicator- had some success in the past and quite fun - basically buying selling within days/weeks.

Had a quick look at IDR rates today. That 10% rate from HSBC is very good. Also beat the local banks that I saw. Surprising, as HSBC aren't really renown throughout the globe for their generous interest rates. Charging you fees yes. Giving you interest no Their normal rate seemed to be 7.5%

I wouldn't like to bank on IDR appreciation vs USD, but 10% is a very nice cushion against possible depreciation, and knowing the credit risk is on HSBC would add comfort. The banking system isn't as resilient as Thailand (Indonesia's sovereign rating is also BB+ = one notch below investment grade). Not sure of the strength of HSBC locally, but worth bearing in mind that whatever it's strength there is a perceived moral obligation, and parental support would be likely as HSBC couldn't afford to see one of its entities go into bankruptcy from a reputational point of view.

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

Added another Singapore REIT to my collection today, and bought First Real Estate Investment Trust (FIRT:SP on BBerg) / AW9U:SGX. Yield is 6.14% and goes xd tomorrow, with the announced dividend per unit slightly above that if annualised. Price to book is 1.30, which is a bit of a deviation from others I hold which are around 1 or less.

Basically it was to dip my toes in and diversify a little within the sector. The others I have are retail, office and hospitality REITs. This one is in healthcare, which should be a bit stronger defensively in struggling economic times and they usually have longer WALE (weighted average lease expiry). It's mainly in Indonesia, but also a little in Singapore and S.Korea. I've a feeling that the valuations on some of the Indonesian hospitals may be held on the books below fair value, hence less concerned about the price/ book higher than usual. They recently bought another Indo hospital at below fair value assessed, and that would go onto the books at cost I believe, suggesting again the values of others may be conservative. Lease terms are in SGD reducing any FX risk, and it's not excessively leveraged.

I also liked it's business model and adding hospitals in Indo. Something that could be replicated by adding others like they did recently. That it also has 3 properties in Singapore and 1 in Korea, suggest expansion could be in other countries too. When you look at markets in Asia healthcare will also become more and more important as the developed ones age, and the developing ones growth in wealth so can afford better healthcare.

So a bought a small amount and will continue to follow. I find if I actually buy a little, I follow it more closely with some skin in the game. As it's a newer area for me I also want to see how it goes in practice vs expectations. If so I'll add to it. This is what I did with all the other Singapore REITs, and in any newer market, unlike say UK where I've known particular names for decades.

The main risk I see for the REITs I hold is interest rate rises. I don't expect significant ones any time soon. As they start to rise, I'll need to look more at interest rates on their debt; fixed vs floating, repricing dates, coverage etc, as one of the downsides of these high yields is that they pay out most of their profit, which can potentially lead to issues down the line on debt finance/ refinancing.

Cheers

Fletch

[ExpatJ]

I am in process of selling my condo in jakarta - getting rupiah. HSBC Indonesia offered me 10% interest per year in a time deposit account if i park the money with them. Will keep that there until rupiah strengthens against the dollar. (If i was a single man i might have retired now and lived on this interest, even with the exchange rate hit from converting rupiah to US$!)

I am going to put aside some time to do some technical analysis investing in the SET- primarily using RSI indicator- had some success in the past and quite fun - basically buying selling within days/weeks.

Had a quick look at IDR rates today. That 10% rate from HSBC is very good. Also beat the local banks that I saw. Surprising, as HSBC aren't really renown throughout the globe for their generous interest rates. Charging you fees yes. Giving you interest no Their normal rate seemed to be 7.5%

I wouldn't like to bank on IDR appreciation vs USD, but 10% is a very nice cushion against possible depreciation, and knowing the credit risk is on HSBC would add comfort. The banking system isn't as resilient as Thailand (Indonesia's sovereign rating is also BB+ = one notch below investment grade). Not sure of the strength of HSBC locally, but worth bearing in mind that whatever it's strength there is a perceived moral obligation, and parental support would be likely as HSBC couldn't afford to see one of its entities go into bankruptcy from a reputational point of view.

Cheers

Fletch

The reason I got a good rate is because I offered to put all money from sale of my condo into the account when I sell it

[fletchsmile]

For oil, I don't know when and where it will bottom. I'm not expecting big moves upwards before 2H 2015 at the earliest. Also realistically much below $40 would cause severe problems for so many producers. I have been looking around though in preparation. Some thoughts:

1) In the next few days I'll buy some KTAM Oil fund for definite for my 2 daughters. I invest a fixed amount each month for them in funds, and this month will allocate it there. Oil might go a bit lower yet, but I've a decade or so to wait for them As I'm buying with money onshore this route is easy and convenient for the smaller amounts involved. It feeds into the Db Powershares oil fund, as do most Thai oil funds here. If buying in THB from inside Thailand there are not many options.

2) I'm looking at existing shares I hold outside Thailand, as well as ones that I've held and exited, to see how they are now in terms of valuation.

3) Junior Oils, also run a small specialist fund in the UK, which invests in junior oil companies. I've held this in the past, but rather fortunately sold most of my holding in November at around GBP 159p The fund is now around GBP 106p, which is quite a fall. I did keep a few units, again to have some skin in the game and to keep it on my radar. They're in my SIPP at the moment, reflecting the long term nature I originally intended until I decided to exit most of it. With things as they are though, I'm considering buying just in my normal fund/share trading account as a shorter/mid term bet, I could hold longer if needed

One of the interesting things for me is Junior's individual holdings. It's quite concentrated with over 50% in its Top10 holdings. When I look thru those holdings, there are some very familar names I made some nice little profits on in the past like Circle Oil and Caza Oil and Gas. For the shares I know in their Top 10, most now have a weighting towards strong buy for the brokers views, and prices look attractive now. So rather than bother with all the research myself, I might just let the experts get on with it, and diversify my bets. It can be a bit of a specialist sector, and I find it very time consuming to follow individual O&G juniors with all their various risks. So there's a good chance I'll get back in this fund again - trusting an active manage who knows the market much better than me.

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/j/junior-oils-trust-class-p-accumulation

4) The other way of course is ETFs. There aren't many around I really like, and most are synthetic or come with the disadvantages of things like negative roll yield via futures, so not as nice and simple as the ETFs I usually prefer that actually hold the physical instead of synthetic swaps or futures. I don't want one that invests in oil companies, as this really isn't something I want to be in a sector index for. A lot of companies will struggle and many never recover, so for shares I don't want a basket of companies, but want to separate the wheat from the chaff and inevitable failures. So for the ETF I'm looking for the commodity itself not the sector companies.

Anyone any particular ETFs for oil they like? Db Powershares obviously one, as the Thai funds available here all feed into that. Any other ETFs and on which exchanges? Not too bothered the exchange really, as it's a commodity, and they don't pay income.

Edited January 21, 2015 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

Forgot to add on oil, the other thing I looked at today was the contracts available on TFEX. They do oil commodity futures, pricing in THB. No options unfortunately which are my preferred derivatives.

The direction is too uncertain for now for the way I invest/ trade, and with the futures here they don't go out long enough either, and I've no particular desire to keep rolling them. I prefer closing out futures/ options each trading quarter as it comes, which is a good reality check. Sometimes people can get too attached to a trade, and if you get into the habit of rolling losing positions it's a slippery slope. Automatic expiry / time limit is a good discipline, and helps you think fresh again.

An excellent test of your investment/trading portfolio - whatever the nature shares/bonds/ETFs/derivatives etc - is to ask yourself, if someone came in while you were out, and sold all your investments - after calming down - would you go and buy them all back again? The honest answer for most people is they are holding certain things they wouldn't necessarily put fresh money into today for all sorts of reasons. That raises an interesting question of why you're still holding them? If you wouldn't buy it back, perhaps you should be selling it here and now!

Worth a thought, what would you do if someone sold your entire portfolio while you were out?

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

Stan Chart's Priority Banking Outlook for 2015 may be of interest to some for a flick thru.

https://www.sc.com/sg/_pdf/2015_Outlook_-_A_year_to_W.I.D.E.N._investment_horizons.pdf

Looks like it was written before the recent CHF/EUR as the call on that sticks out like a very sore thumb

A general theme relevant for me is that while I'm looking to move from an aggressive portfolio to a moderately aggressive portfolio and reduce my equity holdings to under 85%, this isn't a great year to be targeting fixed income and commodities - according to them - which highlights one of the difficulties in my objectives. As mentioned while I would like more fixed income it's difficult to find value. I don't want to add for the sake of it, but longer term I'd like to have a greater weighting. With yields at historic lows that doesn't augur well either for when rates start to rise. Relatively equities look better, so if anything like the last couple of years, equities outperforming bonds will make my job of increasing FI a little harder again too

On currencies: THB at 33.1 1H and 33.6 H2 according to general consensus.

Cheers

Fletch

Edited January 22, 2015 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

Saw that CPALL - the 7/11, Makro group are about to issue some more debentures. Indicative rates are: 4.1% for 5 years, or 3.55% for 2 years. There would be 15% WHT on those.

From an issuer's point of view, it's a nice time to be issuing, with low rates. From an investor's point of view, I don't find Thai bonds particularly attractive at the moment. The rates are a bit better than cash, but at those levels I'll stick with 2.3% - 3% on cash. I bought some CP All bonds a year or so back, and rates were 4%+ for 3 years, so wasn't too bad a lock in, with falling rates. Don't have much appetite to add to them at even lower rates than last time

Cheers

Fletch

Edited February 23, 2015 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

SET index certainly doesn't look cheap at the moment. The factors pushing it upwards this year seem to be mostly global factors, dragging Thai upward with them. I don't see much good news that isn't built into the price. Earnings really need to pick up if valuations are going to look more reasonable.

Last week SET was on P/E of over 19. I suspect it's maybe a timing issue on what earnings are taken - from a low point last year (or an error) - but when I look today they are on a P/E of 22. That's way too high. As long as global markets hold up generally they may be OK, but that's too high if bad news kicks in. Even with 20% increase in earnings this year, P/Es would still be high.

I'm much more comfortable around P/E 15. 18 was stretching it. So:

- If building wealth long term via baht cost averaging, someone might want to slow that down for a while. May not want to stop completely as it's always difficult to predict timing, but slowing things may make sense at this point.

- If you've no replacement income, and are much older with no new money coming in, someone may want to consider taking some profits/ money off the table. Definitely not a time to add large one-off lump sums.

While the bull run isn't over yet, and could go on a while given global markets liquidity, a little caution...

For options trading, I'm positioned that the market won't rise more than 5% or fall more than 15%/20%. That's a reasonable measure to me of where the market is more likely to head - limited upside, careful on the downside.

Cheers

Fletch

[marino28]

Saw that CPALL - the 7/11, Makro group are about to issue some more debentures. Indicative rates are: 4.1% for 5 years, or 3.55% for 2 years. There would be 15% WHT on those.

From an issuer's point of view, it's a nice time to be issuing, with low rates. From an investor's point of view, I don't find Thai bonds particularly attractive at the moment. The rates are a bit better than cash, but at those levels I'll stick with 2.3% - 3% on cash. I bought some CP All bonds a year or so back, and rates were 4%+ for 3 years, so wasn't too bad a lock in, with falling rates. Don't have much appetite to add to them at even lower rates than last time

Cheers

Fletch

hi Fletch,

which bank you use, to buy bond issue?

thanks

[brucetefl]

I am a lifelong entrepreneur and I've always formed my own companies most of which have become profitable. So despite my MBA, I've never really paid much attention to external investment. However, my girlfriend has recently come into some cash and she asked me how she should invest it. She also has a very high salary (by Thai standards) and needs to do a better job putting money away. She was going to just throw the lump sum into a regular bank with a six month term. I explained her that she's probably losing money if you compare inflation. Yet, despite this measly advice, I didn't really have much to say.

So I decided to come to this form. I feel very fortunate but someone like fletch is here to help us less initiated in the world of investment. So thank you, fletch. Very well done. I might even start diversifying my portfolio into investments outside of my own sphere of influence. I'm not as Young as I used to be after all.

I feel like I owe you a drink or a dinner or something.

Seems to be a year where I'm not particularly in a rush to invest Having took stock of 2014 and how that fared - a decent year - the next thing was to set out where I want to be at the end of this year. So as usual I've set some specific financial targets in monetary amounts, type of investments, time frames etc. Always a good way to focus, and if you fail to plan then you might as well plan to fail

For overall direction, I'm still looking more for wealth protection for me and the wife, whereas wealth creation for the kids. A lot is similar to last year. So (leaving out the amounts) here are my objectives for 2015:

1. Maximise my LTF investments for tax benefit. Still can't beat this as an investment, with the government kindly giving me money back since 2004. each THB 100k can effectively cost as little as THB 65k net, depending on your tax rate. So a 50%+ instant gain, for tying it away for 5 calendar years, which I would have been happy to do and plan anyway. Plus THB assets are important living here, and equities should grow long term to exceed inflation.

2. Maximise RMFs. Not new money, just sell existing funds, and buy similar ones to get the tax benefits. Same tax relief as LTFS just tied up for a bit longer. Last year I split equally between: Thai equities, Asian equities, Global Fixed Income and Gold. Simply selling a fund and buying a similar version with the proceeds that has an RMF wrapper, so I get tax relief:

Aberdeen Smart Capital - Thai equities

Aberdeen Asia Pacific - Asian equities

Krungrsi Gold ETF

KTAM (global) Bond RMF

3. Streamline my investments. I hold in 3 main places: UK, Thailand, and Singapore. Where I came from (in case need to go back)+ where I am + offshore. I plan on continuing with all 3, just I want to simplify them. While I can manage them, they increasingly take up more time, plus I also do for my mum in UK, brother and sister in law, and one of their children. Plus if anything happened to me, wouldn't be easy for the wife to manage

4. Spend less time on investments and money. More time with the family. There's a good chance I'm past the half way stage in life

5. Revise our wills. So I have 3: UK, Singapore, Thailand. My wife has 2: Thailand and Singapore

6. Increase our exposure to fixed interest/ bonds. Still only around 10%. Needs increasing from my 100% equities in younger days. Would like to move towards about 15%. But this will be a challenge as 1) yields on fixed income aren't that attractive, particularly knowing rate rises will come at some point; and 2) my equities tend to return more and grow faster, so it's a bit of an uphill struggle there too

7. Reduce our weighting on Thailand equities. I still want a reasonable exposure there. Just I have more than I'd prefer - almost 40%. Partly as a result of good returns in Thai equities since 1998, but partly because in this environment if I sell there still aren't that many attractive THB asset classes. Cash rates poor. THB bonds unattractive. Property = hassle

8. Increase weightings to property and REITs - to diversify more from equities, bonds, cash etc. This will be one of the easier ones. Singapore REITS look attractive, still getting 6% - ish yields tax free with potential capital upside, and in SGD

9. Buy a few more income yielding assets in Thailand.

10. Buy some of the Krungrsi Global Income/ JPM Global Income fund in the wife's name, to dip our toes into. It's well diversified across major asset classes, and it's the type of thing she could hold for 30 years+ even if something happened to me. Auto-redemption of units could create say 3.3% redemption per year for 30 years, with capital growth.

11. For the kids just keep buying the same amount every month in funds, mainly equity funds, to hold until they're at least 18. So still at least 10 years or so away. I started doing this a shortly after the birth of our first daughter, and at the same time started the same amount/funds in my name in anticipation of the second one when she came along a couple of years later. Then just swapped the names to hers when the second finally came along. That was around 8 years+ ago. So they both have a reasonable sum in their names, and the same amounts to be fair.

12. Make sure by the end of the year, I've enough cash set aside specifically for a new car. Again I just stick the same amount away in cash each month. Use the girls names by me, to spread the risk about and put it in Stan Charte eSavers earning 2.5% instant access. Always a competitive rate, so I don't have to bother chopping and changing.

Anyway, that's a little where I'm coming from. Anyone any thoughts to share on additional objectives?

Next thing, with the past assessed, and targets set is specific investments to get there

Cheers

Fletch

Edited February 24, 2015 by brucetefl

[fletchsmile]

Saw that CPALL - the 7/11, Makro group are about to issue some more debentures. Indicative rates are: 4.1% for 5 years, or 3.55% for 2 years. There would be 15% WHT on those.

From an issuer's point of view, it's a nice time to be issuing, with low rates. From an investor's point of view, I don't find Thai bonds particularly attractive at the moment. The rates are a bit better than cash, but at those levels I'll stick with 2.3% - 3% on cash. I bought some CP All bonds a year or so back, and rates were 4%+ for 3 years, so wasn't too bad a lock in, with falling rates. Don't have much appetite to add to them at even lower rates than last time

Cheers

Fletch

hi Fletch,

which bank you use, to buy bond issue?

thanks

It depends on who the lead arrangers are for the issue. Last time I bought thru Stan Chart.

There was an article in the Nation today about it, listing the other arrangers:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/CP-All-sets-Bt15-bn-to-expand-7-Eleven-and-Makro-n-30254787.html

"Subscription for the public offering will open at branches of the joint lead arrangers from March 16 to 19. The joint lead arrangers are Bangkok Bank, Krungthai Bank, Bank of Ayudhya, Siam Commercial Bank, Thanachart Bank, Standard Chartered Bank (Thai), and Phatra Securities."

If interested, I'd contact them before those dates, as the arrangers often "book build" before, eg I got an email from my relationship manager (RM) a couple of days ago asking if I was interested..

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

I am a lifelong entrepreneur and I've always formed my own companies most of which have become profitable. So despite my MBA, I've never really paid much attention to external investment. However, my girlfriend has recently come into some cash and she asked me how she should invest it. She also has a very high salary (by Thai standards) and needs to do a better job putting money away. She was going to just throw the lump sum into a regular bank with a six month term. I explained her that she's probably losing money if you compare inflation. Yet, despite this measly advice, I didn't really have much to say.

So I decided to come to this form. I feel very fortunate but someone like fletch is here to help us less initiated in the world of investment. So thank you, fletch. Very well done. I might even start diversifying my portfolio into investments outside of my own sphere of influence. I'm not as Young as I used to be after all.

I feel like I owe you a drink or a dinner or something.

Cheers, often up for a beer

For your wife, you're spot is probably losing money compared to inflation. If she's a high earner paying tax, then LTFs are well worth looking into. Although the Thai stock market looks a bit overvalued at the moment, the tax relief provides a nice cushion against any fall. Every month when I get paid I religiously put 50k into a Thai LTF for the first 10 months of the year. Not the time for lump sum investing I feel, but baht cost averaging with a tax cushion makes sense, as the tax allowance is annual, and use it or lose it. For a 35% tax payer that 50k effectively costs only 32.5k so you've a nice gain from the tax cushion providing you hold for 5 years.

BTW Is that the same Bruce that set up TEFL international? If so very much enjoyed the 4 weeks down in Ban Phe when I took some time out of work for a year and as part of it did the TEFL course.

Cheers

Fletch

[widarp]

I guess it comes down to what you're trying to achieve. Also what your circumstances are, age etc. I've never really been a bond fan either to be honest.

#6 was driven mainly by the 2008 crisis. That year my investment portfolio was negative by over 30%. The asset classes that made positive returns for me were: commodities, some absolute/strategic funds and certain bond funds. These were less than 5% of my portfolio. Hence the interest in increasing all of these classes now, and learning from it given my different circumstances. Equities and property based investments I had fared worst. At the stage I was married with one young baby not yet in school, and in a well paying expat job. Return of capital was suddenly important, but no major liabilities or school fees yet.

1997 Asian crisis, I was living a single life with no dependents. Most of my money was in equity based investments with some cash. No property, almost no fixed income (only in mixed funds), no commodities, good job. Plenty of years ahead of me. I really didn't care about ups and downs in the market, as I'd just add and invest each month for the long term future. Just wanted to maximise long term gains, and ignore volatility. Return on capital most important. Was familiar with portfolio threory, CAPM, efficient market frontier and all that theory. Wasn't so bothered with fixed income to reduce risk, because it also reduced return.

1987 crash. Single no dependents, mainly equities, a little cash. Best earning years ahead of me. Anything I lost I could make up later in life. Long term return most important, and equities provided that. Not as familiar with the benefits of other asset classes, and as they often offered less return didn't catch my interest either.

2008 was also an interesting one for cash. Prior to that interest rates were decent, and I never had to think much about bank collapses. Then when you realise that western banks could have collapsed +even the highest grade sovereigns weren't fool proof + equities did collapse + property based investments collapsed, then corporate bonds did look nice, as did cash in Thai banks.

eg if your UK or US government goes bust, likely your deposit guarantees on cash do too, property prices tank, equities tank and contagion, gold would obviously be good, but I'd also prefer a claim on a decent corporate bond than an insolvent sovereign bond exposure who was guaranteeing my cash as well. There'll be other scenarios and crises which hit different asset classes in different ways.

Some of the other experiences I've had since 2008 include:

- managing portfolios where you are no longer adding to them and drawing money out. Optimising survival chances plus actually withdrawals to fund living is a different ball game to having more than enough or keep adding to investments. Portfolio theory made more sense on that score compared to a newly qualified accountant decades ago who knew the theory, just didn't care, was always adding money and more interested in returns. You sort of have to go through life's experiences to really fully appreciate the theories and their flaws, and we all have different experiences in life.

- finishing work with a family in tow and school fees, and considering that you may/may not work again

- various thoughts on mortality for various reasons

So all in all now, for me my perspectives, aims, outlooks and life experiences have changed. I want a portfolio that is well balanced, that will cover as many eventualities as possible. Able to live off it and draw money indefinitely if needed. Optimising rather than maximising returns. Wife + 2 kids to think of, 14 years until school/university fees over, and knowing I have more working years behind me than ahead even if I wanted to.

While sometimes I might have skipped one asset class or more, what I find is each crisis can be different and affect me in different ways. It's also sod's law that when the next crisis hits, the asset class I miss will be the one I need most. You never know exactly which crisis will hit exactly when and in exactly what way for impacts

So while I'm still not a great fan of bonds, they have their place. Some behave more like equity and can be correlated, some much less correlated. Generally lower returns than I used to get, but less volatility and risk too. Even less of a fan of gold, but have some of that too just in case.

Cheers

Fletch

[widarp]

Hi Fletchsmile,

I do like your advice and insight here on the forum.
I am a bit confused regarding RMF:S

"2. Maximise RMFs. Not new money, just sell existing funds, and buy similar ones to get the tax benefits. Same tax relief as LTFS just tied up for a bit longer. Last year I split equally between: Thai equities, Asian equities, Global Fixed Income and Gold. Simply selling a fund and buying a similar version with the proceeds that has an RMF wrapper, so I get tax relief:

Aberdeen Smart Capital - Thai equities

Aberdeen Asia Pacific - Asian equities

Krungrsi Gold ETF

KTAM (global) Bond RMF "

Can one actually just sell one RMF and buy another one and get the tax relief without adding new money?

Nils

[fletchsmile]

Hi Fletchsmile,

I do like your advice and insight here on the forum.

I am a bit confused regarding RMF:S

"2. Maximise RMFs. Not new money, just sell existing funds, and buy similar ones to get the tax benefits. Same tax relief as LTFS just tied up for a bit longer. Last year I split equally between: Thai equities, Asian equities, Global Fixed Income and Gold. Simply selling a fund and buying a similar version with the proceeds that has an RMF wrapper, so I get tax relief:

Aberdeen Smart Capital - Thai equities

Aberdeen Asia Pacific - Asian equities

Krungrsi Gold ETF

KTAM (global) Bond RMF "

Can one actually just sell one RMF and buy another one and get the tax relief without adding new money?

Nils

Hi Nils

Thanks for the comments. For RMFs you can't sell one RMF and buy another RMF to get tax relief again. You can switch between RMF funds but there is no tax relief for a switch as you already had it on the first purchase.

What I was referring to is selling an ordinary unit trust/mutual fund (not RMF) and buying a similar fund but which is an RMF. This you can get the tax relief for as it is a new RMF purchase.

Over the years I've acquired various ordinary mutual funds here. So I'm just selling those and buying a similar RMF fund run along similar lines and collecting the tax. My underlying investments dont change much and I'm just changing a nonRMF to an RMF within the limits. Overall not adding money just recycling to get the tax.

So

Sell Aberdeen Growth - Thai equities

Buy Aberdeen Smart Capital RMF which also invests in Thai equities with similar strategy returns etc and managed by the same people

Sell Aberdeen Asia Pacific Fund

Buy Aberdeen Asia Pacific Equity Fund RMF

Very similar the only difference is the tax wrapper

Sold TMB Gold fund

Bought Krungsri Gold fund RMF

Sold TMB Global bond fund

Bought KTAM bond fund RMF

Although the last two are different fund managers they are very similar funds and underlying investments.

I can move up to THB 500k a year like this ( less company pension contributions) and claim tax relief.

Highest tax rate is 35%. So you can get up to 500k@35% = 175k back in tax per year just by selling a non RMF to buy an RMF.

No real change in total investments except maybe 1% to 1.5% charges and cash back to you of up to 35%

(Depends on your limits and tax rates tho.)

BTW on LTFs as they only run for 5 calendar years you could sell the fund when the 5 calendar years are up and buy another LTF (up to max limit) and get tax relief again. This is because they only have a minimum holding period of 5 years.

Cheers

Fletch

Edited March 6, 2015 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

I've been a fan of Aberdeen as fund managers for a couple of decades, first in UK, and since late 1990's in Asia and Thailand. They're generally strong above average performers in Emerging markets and Asia. In the last few years outperformance hasn't been as strong is it used to be, and some funds have had soft closures to stop them growing too big, otherwise they become a bit unwieldly and a victim of their own success and growth. I feel similar applies to Thailand, eg with their Aberdeen Growth fund.

So the article from Morningstar UK was of interest. Sums it up for me that they're still among the best, but not quite as good as they used to be relatively.

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/134901/aberdeen-funds-downgraded-still-among-best-of-breed.aspx

Aberdeen Funds Downgraded, Still Among Best FUND RESEARCH UPDATE: Morningstar analysts have cut their ratings on Aberdeen's Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets equity funds to a very respectable rating of Silver

- See more at: http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/134901/aberdeen-funds-downgraded-still-among-best-of-breed.aspx#sthash.ZBCugj88.dpuf

For the funds available in Thailand one of Aberdeen's strength is their range of equities they cover. Again strong in Thailand, Emerging markets and Asia. Also OK for most other world regional markets if you're looking for a one stop stop to add say European equities, World etc, although they don't outperform in the same way in these sectors as Asia, EM, Thailand. Their US fund is consistently below average so stay away from that one

Cheers

Fletch