Set Index And Thai Mutual Funds

[BlackJack]

money continues to leave the SET

US bonds continue to be a real risk

when not if this bubble bursts it will be although meticulously planned, be very devistating for pensions and mums and dads

without hijacking the forum - when gold gets to 1000 dollars or below it will be a signal to load up

IMO

[MrRealDeal]

money continues to leave the SET

US bonds continue to be a real risk

when not if this bubble bursts it will be although meticulously planned, be very devistating for pensions and mums and dads

without hijacking the forum - when gold gets to 1000 dollars or below it will be a signal to load up

IMO

I think you underestimate the pension fund managers who will be shorting bonds if they are not already , I can't say the same for moms and dads who historically make every wrong move possible on the way down.

Bonds are only a risk if you planned on making money from rates going down from .25 percent, anyone who is holding a bond now is either happy with the rate to maturity or not very smart in thinking the price will rise.

Some people are happy with what seems like a wasting asset due to inflation although I can't imagine having that much money but plenty of people do and chose low yielding bonds over Gold.

Edited June 24, 2013 by MrRealDeal

[Naam]

I think you underestimate the pension fund managers who will be shorting bonds if they are not already...

and i think you overestimate the possibility of shorting bonds. let an old bondman tell you that it is as difficult as finding in Pattaya's Walking Street a 31 year old "virgo intacta".

[BlackJack]

at the end of the day someone or some fund or some country will be holding the bubble whe it goes off

my calculator doesnt have enough zero's to show the extent of it but heres a hint and this is only for Asia emerging markets = "Emerging East Asia's local currency bond markets expanded 12.1% year-on-year to $6.7 trillion at the end of March 2013, driven by double-digit growth in corporate bonds, according to the latest edition of the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) Asia Bond Monitor."

Add in the EU, UK, USA and i definitely need a bigger calculator.

anyone ever play hot potato?

[MrRealDeal]

I think you underestimate the pension fund managers who will be shorting bonds if they are not already...

and i think you overestimate the possibility of shorting bonds. let an old bondman tell you that it is as difficult as finding in Pattaya's Walking Street a 31 year old "virgo intacta".

I didn't say it was easy or that it comes around often .... I am saying that my opinion is that in less than 2 years it will be a great time to do it. But I certainly could be wrong .... lets discuss in 2019 how well it worked from 2014 till then

[Naam]

I think you underestimate the pension fund managers who will be shorting bonds if they are not already...

and i think you overestimate the possibility of shorting bonds. let an old bondman tell you that it is as difficult as finding in Pattaya's Walking Street a 31 year old "virgo intacta".

I didn't say it was easy or that it comes around often .... I am saying that my opinion is that in less than 2 years it will be a great time to do it. But I certainly could be wrong .... lets discuss in 2019 how well it worked from 2014 till then

what i am saying is "shorting bonds no can do!"

[up-country_sinclair]

After today's downward move of 2.6%, the SET has gone into the red for 2013.

Edited June 24, 2013 by up-country_sinclair

[MrRealDeal]

I think you underestimate the pension fund managers who will be shorting bonds if they are not already...

and i think you overestimate the possibility of shorting bonds. let an old bondman tell you that it is as difficult as finding in Pattaya's Walking Street a 31 year old "virgo intacta".

I didn't say it was easy or that it comes around often .... I am saying that my opinion is that in less than 2 years it will be a great time to do it. But I certainly could be wrong .... lets discuss in 2019 how well it worked from 2014 till then

what i am saying is "shorting bonds no can do!"

What do you mean ? Like you can't find a way to do it ? There are a gazillion short funds or ETF's ?

[Naam]

What do you mean ? Like you can't find a way to do it ? There are a gazillion short funds or ETF's ?

sorry, misunderstanding MrRD! i was talking shorting specific bonds.

[Naam]

After today's downward move of 2.6%, the SET has gone into the red for 2013.

here's the culprit:

SSE Composite -Shanghai 1,963.24 -109.86 (-5.30%)

[MrRealDeal]

What do you mean ? Like you can't find a way to do it ? There are a gazillion short funds or ETF's ?

sorry, misunderstanding MrRD! i was talking shorting specific bonds.

That's my fault .... typing bonds is easier than Treasury notes\bills ..... I was using the term in the generic sence

[BlackJack]

shadow banking = China's very own sub prime disaster

"Between 2010 and 2012—a period during which traditional banks scaled back lending—shadow lenders doubled their outstanding loans to 36 trillion yuan ($5.8 trillion), or about 69% of China's gross domestic product, estimates J.P. Morgan Chase JPM -2.00% & Co. At so-called trust companies, a pillar of the shadow sector, assets under management have almost tripled to 8.7 trillion yuan, making the trust industry the second-largest financial-services sector in China, after banks."

TIMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! as it falls over - should impact on the SET as well as other majors

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324637504578563570021019506.html

Edited June 25, 2013 by BlackJack

[up-country_sinclair]

Put my toe in the water today.

[BlackJack]

thanks for volunteering

[kblaze]

Put my toe in the water today.

Long term trade or short term?

[up-country_sinclair]

Long.

Planning on dollar cost averaging for the next decade.

Edited June 28, 2013 by up-country_sinclair

[fletchsmile]

Very volatile and interesting few weeks. A good reminder to be clear on why you're investing (or trading).

I can see how newer people to the market who start investing long term might have started to doubt, particularly after Bernanke. The temptation might have been to look to sell, and then buy in. But the last few days would have caught people. On the other hand for short term traders some big opportunities.

My own views:

1) As a long term holder, I'm more comfortable we've had a small correction rather than (and reducing chances of a big shock). YTD SET is up a bit, and with a good fund manager should be up more.

For the kids (Long term - wealth building) I'm still baht cost averaging but feel less a need to reduce it

For myself (Long term - wealth preservation) I still have a higher weighting to Thai equities than I'd like (slightly outside my upper limit). So am looking to rebalance, and reduce a bit. I don't see many fantastic opportunities screaming out so will wait a while - maybe end of year, for hopefully a higher SET, and hopefully other opportunities elsewhere.

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

Some of the other tinkering I've been doing - small in contrast to my large long Thai exposures though:

1) Added a few more FTSE100 stocks: Astra Zenneca, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Tesco

- Given the market correction they seem more reasonable levels.

- Paying dividens of around 5% - 6%. I'd like more fixed income, but in absence of that, high yield big cap equities will have to do

- Intention is just to hold long term as an income stream.

- Forward and current P/Es for most are around high single digits. Tesco being the exception there. I like it though given Warren Buffet holds, and they have potential in this area of the world. When in Thailand, we always shop there, and see it doing quite well - always nice to have first hand experience and know the product

- Intention is to hold all LT for the divs. Plus reduce a bit my THB weighting. Not overly bullish on GBP, but already have more than I'd like again in THB

2) Sold a few SET50 index puts and sold a few SET50 index calls for September, as a short term trade:

- Did well on June expiry with a similar strategy. Although a bit hairy at the end with large downturns then upturns again. Didn't make as much as it looked before Bernanke, but still a nice little extra

- As long as the market doesn't fall or rise more than 13% by 28 Sep, I'll be in the money. It'll need watching more though.

- I prefer writing calls to generate a little extra income, being generally heavily long equities via mutual funds. But there's less demand there. So written some puts as well for income, as even the Thai market can't end up and doen 13% at the same time

- Will need to keep an eye on the downside though, and be prepared to be a bit more dynamic given the short term and trading focus

3) Not done very well on the Co-op bonds I bought. Will have to wait til October. Still, I always knew it was speculative, and started with small positions. I'd have added if I saw it going right, and the double digit potential yields would have been nice. More a case of looking to add to fixed income holdings, where I've less than I'd like, but really don't see it as a great time.

Somewhat surpised at the way things went:

- Was banking on UK govt not needing to step in given a large mutual parent holding company with around 80bio assets, plus other assets could be sold

- Was banking on Co-op taking a more ethical stance

- Was banking on Co-op as the single shareholder in a limited company having to suffer their equity loss before bondholders. This is normal hierarchy and priority by company law. So disappointed the government and a company claiming to be an ethical mutual have both manipulated the rules to suit themselves. First loss should be equity shareholders, second sub-bonds, third senior bonds.

4) Looking for an opportunity on gold and silver. But not holding my breath. Have less than about 2% of my net worth in this, as diversification, and all paper based ETFs so can be realised quickly. Waiting to see where the bottom is. Would really heistate to call this "insurance", but TBH I'm happy if it doesn't make money, as it means the other 98% is likely fairing better

5) The short UK gilt ETF fund I bought: XUGS:LN has recently turned positive. I dipped my toes in, and now its moving in the right direction, I'll look to add, and possibly increase by a leveraged ETF. Only a matter of time before gov bond prices fall... Considering also the Japanese gov equivalents via ETFs...

Cheers

Fletch

Edited June 28, 2013 by fletchsmile

[MrRealDeal]

I like Japan

[fletchsmile]

I like Japan

Equities, bonds or currency? (or maybe just the ladies... )

I like the equities at the moment, but considering shorting the bonds...two reservations: equities already had a good run, and the Japanese govt are QE blackbelts = fine for equities but can manipulate bond prices for years

BTW: I like Korea too - more so than Japan... equities..country...ladies...

Edited June 28, 2013 by fletchsmile

[MrRealDeal]

The index EWJ because of the QE and other policy's ..... I bought 2015 calls the day the bubbles forming post went up on the theory that bottoms are called as average people ask if bubbles are popping ! LOL

I don't like the currency but am less bearish than most would be hence EWJ rather than DXJ

I don't trade bonds

Edited June 28, 2013 by MrRealDeal

[kblaze]

I like Japan

Equities, bonds or currency? (or maybe just the ladies... )

I like the equities at the moment, but considering shorting the bonds...two reservations: equities already had a good run, and the Japanese govt are QE blackbelts = fine for equities but can manipulate bond prices for years

BTW: I like Korea too - more so than Japan... equities..country...ladies...

I saw that Korea upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday for this year and next, and was initially happily surprised,...but then saw that its mostly because of govt stimulus...

[MrRealDeal]

Nothing wrong with investing in gov stimulus as long as you sell before the money needs to be re paid !

[topt]

3) Not done very well on the Co-op bonds I bought. Will have to wait til October. Still, I always knew it was speculative, and started with small positions. I'd have added if I saw it going right, and the double digit potential yields would have been nice. More a case of looking to add to fixed income holdings, where I've less than I'd like, but really don't see it as a great time.

Somewhat surpised at the way things went:

- Was banking on UK govt not needing to step in given a large mutual parent holding company with around 80bio assets, plus other assets could be sold

- Was banking on Co-op taking a more ethical stance

- Was banking on Co-op as the single shareholder in a limited company having to suffer their equity loss before bondholders. This is normal hierarchy and priority by company law. So disappointed the government and a company claiming to be an ethical mutual have both manipulated the rules to suit themselves. First loss should be equity shareholders, second sub-bonds, third senior bonds.

Cheers

Fletch

Fletch I feel for you on this as I was close to buying at one point. Do you think there may still be an upside if the action group can make any headway? They managed something over a situation with Bristol and West not long ago - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10138455/Co-op-bondholders-form-action-group-to-fight-losses.html

[BlackJack]

Some of the other tinkering I've been doing - small in contrast to my large long Thai exposures though:

1) Added a few more FTSE100 stocks: Astra Zenneca, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Tesco

- Given the market correction they seem more reasonable levels.

- Paying dividens of around 5% - 6%. I'd like more fixed income, but in absence of that, high yield big cap equities will have to do

- Intention is just to hold long term as an income stream.

- Forward and current P/Es for most are around high single digits. Tesco being the exception there. I like it though given Warren Buffet holds, and they have potential in this area of the world. When in Thailand, we always shop there, and see it doing quite well - always nice to have first hand experience and know the product

- Intention is to hold all LT for the divs. Plus reduce a bit my THB weighting. Not overly bullish on GBP, but already have more than I'd like again in THB

2) Sold a few SET50 index puts and sold a few SET50 index calls for September, as a short term trade:

- Did well on June expiry with a similar strategy. Although a bit hairy at the end with large downturns then upturns again. Didn't make as much as it looked before Bernanke, but still a nice little extra

- As long as the market doesn't fall or rise more than 13% by 28 Sep, I'll be in the money. It'll need watching more though.

- I prefer writing calls to generate a little extra income, being generally heavily long equities via mutual funds. But there's less demand there. So written some puts as well for income, as even the Thai market can't end up and doen 13% at the same time

- Will need to keep an eye on the downside though, and be prepared to be a bit more dynamic given the short term and trading focus

3) Not done very well on the Co-op bonds I bought. Will have to wait til October. Still, I always knew it was speculative, and started with small positions. I'd have added if I saw it going right, and the double digit potential yields would have been nice. More a case of looking to add to fixed income holdings, where I've less than I'd like, but really don't see it as a great time.

Somewhat surpised at the way things went:

- Was banking on UK govt not needing to step in given a large mutual parent holding company with around 80bio assets, plus other assets could be sold

- Was banking on Co-op taking a more ethical stance

- Was banking on Co-op as the single shareholder in a limited company having to suffer their equity loss before bondholders. This is normal hierarchy and priority by company law. So disappointed the government and a company claiming to be an ethical mutual have both manipulated the rules to suit themselves. First loss should be equity shareholders, second sub-bonds, third senior bonds.

4) Looking for an opportunity on gold and silver. But not holding my breath. Have less than about 2% of my net worth in this, as diversification, and all paper based ETFs so can be realised quickly. Waiting to see where the bottom is. Would really heistate to call this "insurance", but TBH I'm happy if it doesn't make money, as it means the other 98% is likely fairing better

5) The short UK gilt ETF fund I bought: XUGS:LN has recently turned positive. I dipped my toes in, and now its moving in the right direction, I'll look to add, and possibly increase by a leveraged ETF. Only a matter of time before gov bond prices fall... Considering also the Japanese gov equivalents via ETFs...

Cheers

Fletch

what gold silver ETF'S are you holding as i feel one major catastrophe could set the gold bull running - lots of people forget the huge debts in the World and Italy and Spain treading water

[yoshiwara]

Some of the other tinkering I've been doing - small in contrast to my large long Thai exposures though:

1) Added a few more FTSE100 stocks: Astra Zenneca, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Tesco

- Given the market correction they seem more reasonable levels.

- Paying dividens of around 5% - 6%. I'd like more fixed income, but in absence of that, high yield big cap equities will have to do

- Intention is just to hold long term as an income stream.

- Forward and current P/Es for most are around high single digits. Tesco being the exception there. I like it though given Warren Buffet holds, and they have potential in this area of the world. When in Thailand, we always shop there, and see it doing quite well - always nice to have first hand experience and know the product

- Intention is to hold all LT for the divs. Plus reduce a bit my THB weighting. Not overly bullish on GBP, but already have more than I'd like again in THB

2) Sold a few SET50 index puts and sold a few SET50 index calls for September, as a short term trade:

- Did well on June expiry with a similar strategy. Although a bit hairy at the end with large downturns then upturns again. Didn't make as much as it looked before Bernanke, but still a nice little extra

- As long as the market doesn't fall or rise more than 13% by 28 Sep, I'll be in the money. It'll need watching more though.

- I prefer writing calls to generate a little extra income, being generally heavily long equities via mutual funds. But there's less demand there. So written some puts as well for income, as even the Thai market can't end up and doen 13% at the same time

- Will need to keep an eye on the downside though, and be prepared to be a bit more dynamic given the short term and trading focus

3) Not done very well on the Co-op bonds I bought. Will have to wait til October. Still, I always knew it was speculative, and started with small positions. I'd have added if I saw it going right, and the double digit potential yields would have been nice. More a case of looking to add to fixed income holdings, where I've less than I'd like, but really don't see it as a great time.

Somewhat surpised at the way things went:

- Was banking on UK govt not needing to step in given a large mutual parent holding company with around 80bio assets, plus other assets could be sold

- Was banking on Co-op taking a more ethical stance

- Was banking on Co-op as the single shareholder in a limited company having to suffer their equity loss before bondholders. This is normal hierarchy and priority by company law. So disappointed the government and a company claiming to be an ethical mutual have both manipulated the rules to suit themselves. First loss should be equity shareholders, second sub-bonds, third senior bonds.

4) Looking for an opportunity on gold and silver. But not holding my breath. Have less than about 2% of my net worth in this, as diversification, and all paper based ETFs so can be realised quickly. Waiting to see where the bottom is. Would really heistate to call this "insurance", but TBH I'm happy if it doesn't make money, as it means the other 98% is likely fairing better

5) The short UK gilt ETF fund I bought: XUGS:LN has recently turned positive. I dipped my toes in, and now its moving in the right direction, I'll look to add, and possibly increase by a leveraged ETF. Only a matter of time before gov bond prices fall... Considering also the Japanese gov equivalents via ETFs...

Cheers

Fletch

what gold silver ETF'S are you holding as i feel one major catastrophe could set the gold bull running - lots of people forget the huge debts in the World and Italy and Spain treading water

In the immediacy of the financial collapse 2008, the gold price dropped over 20%. All assets were whacked during this period.

Gold not an exception.

[BlackJack]

Some of the other tinkering I've been doing - small in contrast to my large long Thai exposures though:

1) Added a few more FTSE100 stocks: Astra Zenneca, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Tesco

- Given the market correction they seem more reasonable levels.

- Paying dividens of around 5% - 6%. I'd like more fixed income, but in absence of that, high yield big cap equities will have to do

- Intention is just to hold long term as an income stream.

- Forward and current P/Es for most are around high single digits. Tesco being the exception there. I like it though given Warren Buffet holds, and they have potential in this area of the world. When in Thailand, we always shop there, and see it doing quite well - always nice to have first hand experience and know the product

- Intention is to hold all LT for the divs. Plus reduce a bit my THB weighting. Not overly bullish on GBP, but already have more than I'd like again in THB

2) Sold a few SET50 index puts and sold a few SET50 index calls for September, as a short term trade:

- Did well on June expiry with a similar strategy. Although a bit hairy at the end with large downturns then upturns again. Didn't make as much as it looked before Bernanke, but still a nice little extra

- As long as the market doesn't fall or rise more than 13% by 28 Sep, I'll be in the money. It'll need watching more though.

- I prefer writing calls to generate a little extra income, being generally heavily long equities via mutual funds. But there's less demand there. So written some puts as well for income, as even the Thai market can't end up and doen 13% at the same time

- Will need to keep an eye on the downside though, and be prepared to be a bit more dynamic given the short term and trading focus

3) Not done very well on the Co-op bonds I bought. Will have to wait til October. Still, I always knew it was speculative, and started with small positions. I'd have added if I saw it going right, and the double digit potential yields would have been nice. More a case of looking to add to fixed income holdings, where I've less than I'd like, but really don't see it as a great time.

Somewhat surpised at the way things went:

- Was banking on UK govt not needing to step in given a large mutual parent holding company with around 80bio assets, plus other assets could be sold

- Was banking on Co-op taking a more ethical stance

- Was banking on Co-op as the single shareholder in a limited company having to suffer their equity loss before bondholders. This is normal hierarchy and priority by company law. So disappointed the government and a company claiming to be an ethical mutual have both manipulated the rules to suit themselves. First loss should be equity shareholders, second sub-bonds, third senior bonds.

4) Looking for an opportunity on gold and silver. But not holding my breath. Have less than about 2% of my net worth in this, as diversification, and all paper based ETFs so can be realised quickly. Waiting to see where the bottom is. Would really heistate to call this "insurance", but TBH I'm happy if it doesn't make money, as it means the other 98% is likely fairing better

5) The short UK gilt ETF fund I bought: XUGS:LN has recently turned positive. I dipped my toes in, and now its moving in the right direction, I'll look to add, and possibly increase by a leveraged ETF. Only a matter of time before gov bond prices fall... Considering also the Japanese gov equivalents via ETFs...

Cheers

Fletch

what gold silver ETF'S are you holding as i feel one major catastrophe could set the gold bull running - lots of people forget the huge debts in the World and Italy and Spain treading water

In the immediacy of the financial collapse 2008, the gold price dropped over 20%. All assets were whacked during this period.

Gold not an exception.

GDXJ $9.16 0.71 (8.40%) in a day

when it drops buy it

[fletchsmile]

what gold silver ETF'S are you holding as i feel one major catastrophe could set the gold bull running - lots of people forget the huge debts in the World and Italy and Spain treading water

AGQ, IAU, SLV, SLVR, UGL.

Sometimes also use GLL and SSIL for shorting...

Edited July 1, 2013 by fletchsmile

[NeverSure]

I'm curious as to why so many think that an economic collapse would necessarily drive up the price of gold. Isn't it instead a possibility that governments might need to unload gold to meet exchange needs if currencies collapsed? Or if a particular government got into a real bind, might it not need to unload its gold, especially governments that can't print money?

I don't predict anything, but in my mind I can see a time when gold is unloaded by governments to meet financial needs, driving the price down.

What's this about France. Have they done that? I don't really study France.

If there is a major collapse, won't people be poor? Wont' they have many other needs and enough trouble meeting those needs that gold will be low on their list of priorities?

If there is a currency collapse resulting in massive inflation then yes, many things including gold should go up in price against that currency. But is that a real win? Might not other things that are more useful on a daily basis also go up proportionally, giving better liquidity and value?

Would I be just as well of with 10,000 bottles of whiskey as I would the same purchase price today in gold? Yes, gold can be stored in a small place, but what can one do with it if he's broke and hungry, or needs a drink?

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz........

[CPH]

sold recently subs of Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland because of potential calls

and inspite of reasonably high yields. "A" rated subs of sound financial institutions

without possibility of call still yield 6-7% which is infinitely more than i am getting

on cash USD, GBP or €UR where my yield is zero.

Really Herr Naam you can get 6-7% on non callable?

I'd like some of that!

I've recently halted an order for HCS (HSBC preferreds) ........yielding about the same......because recent calls by financials elsewhere make it unlikely HCS will remain uncalled and will be reissued at more advantageous rates for HSBC.

With HCS one must also take the risk of losing the premium over the $25 issue price which last time I looked was equal to over 6 months yield, I think 8.

when i say "non callable" i mean for at least 9-10 years. alternatives are bonds priced below par where calls at par won't do any harm. but the selection is less and less. i have therefore opted for higher risks and try to balance that risk with a higher cash quota. i also don't mind a call in 2020 of a T1 that trades one tick or two above par as long as the yield is double digit e.g. XS0456513711 which yields presently 10.10%

Do you have any information on the underlying company Furstenberg Capital you like to share. Is it a safe financial institution.