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Posted

this is a forum and so we can let it rip

in these troubled times both in Thailand and the World some things go up and some down ie currencies, equities, bonds, commodities etc. So I would nt go investing blindly in the markets until you research the former. Timing is everything and if you read the papers you will see triggers

investing in some fund long term is ok as long as its the right sort of fund. averaging can be like catching a falling knife

ie if Syria war starts (trigger) then it will set off other things like the dollar will change and oil will change in price

people will be looking for safe haven in currency and dare i say bonds gold and silver

If Syria starts then money will continue to pour out of Thailand and the emerging economies

even todays paper said the baht will depreciate over the next 2 months

so look for events and triggers that will give you a hint as to where a stock fund bond currency is heading

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Posted

Now in the red with BKK bank LTF (B-500!)

Trying to not let short term volatility effect my view as in it for the long term.

OR

The sky is falling get out now buy gold, tinned food and shotguns. w00t.gif.pagespeed.ce.fUUOmDCInI.gif alt=w00t.gif width=18 height=20>

Perhaps now time to increase monthly purchases as ltf units at discount?

One of those periods where you examine your long term aims, see if they still hold, and if so ride thru the short/mid term uncertainties. The worst thing many people do is panic and sell near the bottom, and become too scared to get in again so miss the rise. I rarely see people who time both the top and the bottom correctly, which is why I always focus on long term.

It's sometimes hard to not pay attention to short term moves, but it's good to have times where you lose money as well as make money to develop your experience, attitude, comfort levels, risk and reward. Short/mid term you should expect that sometimes you will be down and sometimes up. Bear in mind markets always overreact too up and down, and the media loves drama. When everyone is worried and the press is all over it being negative is often not far off where things pick up. It's when everyone is happy, everyone is making money, and the press looking for stories I worry more.

Hopefully the tax cushion on the LTFs softens the slight loss.

Whereas at the start of the thread I might have reduced a little monthly investments, now feels about right for normal monthly investment levels, and may go further down before I'd consider cheap and invest a bit more. Or you could just always invest the same each month regardless, ignoring the short term. Factors like Syria are impacting the market now from a trading perspective - that really has little to do with where the Thai market will be 10 years from now, so no point adjusting too much for it in investment (trading of course different) smile.png

As for me, I'll be putting the most I can in LTFs to use this year's allowance early October - October being the cut-off to easily get the tax back in Nov and Dec salaries, and as soon as poss after starting earning income and paying tax here again. Next year I'll be back to monthly averaging starting 1Jan... 10 monthly installments regardless of what is happening short term...

Thanks Fletch. Always learnt something from your comprehensive posts about thai investments. At the moment, I am around 75 % invested, what's your advice at the moment, is the market down enough to fire the remaining 25 % in one go, or should I keep doing Baht cost averaging?

I would sit on my hands.

Posted

Looking better and better. "“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.“ --Baron Rothschild

unfortunately that doesn't apply if there's much more blood in the streets tomorrow, next week or next month.

Yes it does. It means buy more then. :)

  • 3 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

this is a forum and so we can let it rip

in these troubled times both in Thailand and the World some things go up and some down ie currencies, equities, bonds, commodities etc. So I would nt go investing blindly in the markets until you research the former. Timing is everything and if you read the papers you will see triggers

investing in some fund long term is ok as long as its the right sort of fund. averaging can be like catching a falling knife

ie if Syria war starts (trigger) then it will set off other things like the dollar will change and oil will change in price

people will be looking for safe haven in currency and dare i say bonds gold and silver

If Syria starts then money will continue to pour out of Thailand and the emerging economies

even todays paper said the baht will depreciate over the next 2 months

so look for events and triggers that will give you a hint as to where a stock fund bond currency is heading

The problem with the view "timing is everything" is that the Thai market in particular is very difficult to call and time. The last couple of weeks being a great example, where people were waiting for further drops, meanwhile the market has rallied 15% since end of August. Give me "time in the market" any day for the Thai market.

For the Thai equity market, my investment view is look long term, have a plan and stick to it, and hold my nerve thru the short term uncertainities which are always happening. Baht cost averaging is also a nice disciplined approach to keep on investing as long as you believe the long term story is intact, and takes timing out of the equation.

For me, maxed out my LTF recently, in anticipation of starting work again soon, and ensuring I get the max tax break back before year end. I'd originally thought early Oct, but as the market had dropped so much, thought why wait. The recent upsurge is a small added bonus on that, as I'd decided to invest regardless. That's me largely done for adding to Thai equities this year for myself - might add a little more for the kids. From Jan-Oct 2014 I'll be sticking the max investment in LTFs averaged each month next year, unless something fundamental changes in the long term story.

On the trading side: for the options market, I had a nice couple of months or so - nice income from selling Sep SET50 calls to generate income. Got a bit close on the puts I sold to generate income though so I cut positions to reduce risk (and profits), the last few days have taken me well away from likely losses. As long as the market doesn't drop more than 17% or rise more than 10% by next Friday I'll have had a good quarter on the trading. For Dec SET 50 options I'm more inclined to write puts, and cautiously write a few calls, as I think SET will end the year higher than now.

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Edited by fletchsmile
Posted

this is a forum and so we can let it rip

in these troubled times both in Thailand and the World some things go up and some down ie currencies, equities, bonds, commodities etc. So I would nt go investing blindly in the markets until you research the former. Timing is everything and if you read the papers you will see triggers

investing in some fund long term is ok as long as its the right sort of fund. averaging can be like catching a falling knife

ie if Syria war starts (trigger) then it will set off other things like the dollar will change and oil will change in price

people will be looking for safe haven in currency and dare i say bonds gold and silver

If Syria starts then money will continue to pour out of Thailand and the emerging economies

even todays paper said the baht will depreciate over the next 2 months

so look for events and triggers that will give you a hint as to where a stock fund bond currency is heading

The problem with the view "timing is everything" is that the Thai market in particular is very difficult to call and time. The last couple of weeks being a great example, where people were waiting for further drops, meanwhile the market has rallied 15% since end of August. Give me "time in the market" any day for the Thai market.

For the Thai equity market, my investment view is look long term, have a plan and stick to it, and hold my nerve thru the short term uncertainities which are always happening. Baht cost averaging is also a nice disciplined approach to keep on investing as long as you believe the long term story is intact, and takes timing out of the equation.

For me, maxed out my LTF recently, in anticipation of starting work again soon, and ensuring I get the max tax break back before year end. I'd originally thought early Oct, but as the market had dropped so much, thought why wait. The recent upsurge is a small added bonus on that, as I'd decided to invest regardless. That's me largely done for adding to Thai equities this year for myself - might add a little more for the kids. From Jan-Oct 2014 I'll be sticking the max investment in LTFs averaged each month next year, unless something fundamental changes in the long term story.

On the trading side: for the options market, I had a nice couple of months or so - nice income from selling Sep SET50 calls to generate income. Got a bit close on the puts I sold to generate income though so I cut positions to reduce risk (and profits), the last few days have taken me well away from likely losses. As long as the market doesn't drop more than 17% or rise more than 10% by next Friday I'll have had a good quarter on the trading. For Dec SET 50 options I'm more inclined to write puts, and cautiously write a few calls, as I think SET will end the year higher than now.

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

every financial review I read said along with Wall Street that tapering would begin at between 10-30 billion

none were right

bring on the monkeys with the dart boards

Posted

every financial review I read said along with Wall Street that tapering would begin at between 10-30 billion

none were right

bring on the monkeys with the dart boards

Yes I was expecting 5-10 bio. I wish they'd just get on with it, then at least we can get a step closer back to how markets should be. Continuing QE is doing no-one any long term favours - sooner they start reducing the better.

Cheers

Fletch :)

Posted

Yes I was expecting 5-10 bio. I wish they'd just get on with it, then at least we can get a step closer back to how markets should be. Continuing QE is doing no-one any long term favours - sooner they start reducing the better.

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

when all gurus, taxi-drivers, your maid and your gardener expect something then... it won't happen.
Posted

Yes I was expecting 5-10 bio. I wish they'd just get on with it, then at least we can get a step closer back to how markets should be. Continuing QE is doing no-one any long term favours - sooner they start reducing the better.

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

when all gurus, taxi-drivers, your maid and your gardener expect something then... it won't happen.

easier said after the event

Posted

this is a forum and so we can let it rip

in these troubled times both in Thailand and the World some things go up and some down ie currencies, equities, bonds, commodities etc. So I would nt go investing blindly in the markets until you research the former. Timing is everything and if you read the papers you will see triggers

investing in some fund long term is ok as long as its the right sort of fund. averaging can be like catching a falling knife

ie if Syria war starts (trigger) then it will set off other things like the dollar will change and oil will change in price

people will be looking for safe haven in currency and dare i say bonds gold and silver

If Syria starts then money will continue to pour out of Thailand and the emerging economies

even todays paper said the baht will depreciate over the next 2 months

so look for events and triggers that will give you a hint as to where a stock fund bond currency is heading

The problem with the view "timing is everything" is that the Thai market in particular is very difficult to call and time. The last couple of weeks being a great example, where people were waiting for further drops, meanwhile the market has rallied 15% since end of August. Give me "time in the market" any day for the Thai market.

For the Thai equity market, my investment view is look long term, have a plan and stick to it, and hold my nerve thru the short term uncertainities which are always happening. Baht cost averaging is also a nice disciplined approach to keep on investing as long as you believe the long term story is intact, and takes timing out of the equation.

For me, maxed out my LTF recently, in anticipation of starting work again soon, and ensuring I get the max tax break back before year end. I'd originally thought early Oct, but as the market had dropped so much, thought why wait. The recent upsurge is a small added bonus on that, as I'd decided to invest regardless. That's me largely done for adding to Thai equities this year for myself - might add a little more for the kids. From Jan-Oct 2014 I'll be sticking the max investment in LTFs averaged each month next year, unless something fundamental changes in the long term story.

On the trading side: for the options market, I had a nice couple of months or so - nice income from selling Sep SET50 calls to generate income. Got a bit close on the puts I sold to generate income though so I cut positions to reduce risk (and profits), the last few days have taken me well away from likely losses. As long as the market doesn't drop more than 17% or rise more than 10% by next Friday I'll have had a good quarter on the trading. For Dec SET 50 options I'm more inclined to write puts, and cautiously write a few calls, as I think SET will end the year higher than now.

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

every financial review I read said along with Wall Street that tapering would begin at between 10-30 billion

none were right

bring on the monkeys with the dart boards

Maria Bartiromo was right.

Posted

Quick question ? whats the difference between LTF opposed to regular Mutual funds ?....they are listed separately on the SCB website..

cheers

LTFs = Long term Equity Funds.

They are mutual funds which are largely focused on Thai equities with "tax incentives"/a "tax wrapper". You get tax relief on investing in them at your marginal rate of tax. You can obtain tax relief on up to THB 500k or 15% of your income each year whichever is lower.

To retain the tax benefit you need to hold for 5 calendar years.

Personally as someone who leaves in Thailand with earned income they're one of my all time favourite investments: tax relief + THB denominated assets + equities + mutual fund

Cheers

Fletch :)

Posted

.. err yeah, i knew the actual meaning (can use Google, you know biggrin.png )... but basically they are no advantage if you do not pay tax in Thailand ?...

Due to the recent lows and rebound of the GBP i am planning to bring a fair amount in and park up in some mutual funds.

One worry i have, as a long time resident, is the property market in Pattaya (don't know about Bangkok ?)... prices are on par with 5 years ago but the sheer volume of condo projects is insane....Jomtien especially.... I can still re-call the litter of unfinished projects around Bangkok & Pattaya post '97 crash ... along with the THB

Posted

.. err yeah, i knew the actual meaning (can use Google, you know biggrin.png )... but basically they are no advantage if you do not pay tax in Thailand ?...

Due to the recent lows and rebound of the GBP i am planning to bring a fair amount in and park up in some mutual funds.

One worry i have, as a long time resident, is the property market in Pattaya (don't know about Bangkok ?)... prices are on par with 5 years ago but the sheer volume of condo projects is insane....Jomtien especially.... I can still re-call the litter of unfinished projects around Bangkok & Pattaya post '97 crash ... along with the THB

real estate - just look at the banks pulling back - the shortage of labour - the over supply - the 49 /51% ratio - the proxy to buy property with a business

house of cards

if (as this is what I am waiting for) the 2 trillion loan is approved then the infrastructure funds is where i will be heading - ie cement, energy, etc.

but this may not happen until next year

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Good article on the case for emerging markets, and much applies to Thailand

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/10/03/tips-and-ideas/our-portfolios/investment-trust-portfolio/emerging-from-the-gloom-SwHiKOv3xR6IbkAVgSu6LI/article.html

Couple of good quotes:

"In short, sentiment trails fundamentals. The extent of the recent underperformance presents long-term investors with a rare opportunity. As if to illustrate the point, a recent note from Citi suggests that these sort of emerging market valuations have predicted positive returns for all big equity markets over the following year in nearly 90 per cent of the time."

"In short, a lot of the bad news is in the price. Sentiment is very depressed. Now this would be less significant if it was not for the fact that, despite past enthusiasm, investors tend to be underweight emerging markets. For all the talk about the relative attractions, particularly when compared to the debt-ridden West, investors remain cautious. As a result, they have missed a great growth story over recent decades.

A key reason for this underweighting is volatility. Investors understandably do not like it. It makes for sleepless nights. But for those investors willing and able to take a long-term view, volatility should be embraced and exploited"

In particular I agree with:

Short term, only a gifted few know where these markets are heading. But longer term, I suggest they represent compelling value.

Reasonable conclusion near the end too

"So pick your sectors and strategies. Accept short-term volatility as an opportunity, knowing these markets represent good value today on a longer-term view. And start building positions, particularly if underweight - second chances do not come along every day."

Personally I'm a little overweight Thailand compared to my own targets, and they're more overweight than most in the first place smile.png

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Edited by fletchsmile
Posted

For those looking for a little extra yield above cash rates, but not comfortable with equities my bank RM contacted me today about the CPAll (7-11 and Makro owner) Debenture Issue, which has various tenors. Indicative rates (to be confirmed) were:

3 Yrs: 4%

5 Yrs: 4.5%

7 Yrs: 5%

10 Yrs: 5.25%

Investments were in blocks of THB 100k. May be of interest to some.

I believe most banks will offer it. Although if you go thru the mass market channels for subscription, I'm not sure what your chances are of getting anything - BKK bank for example say subscription is 28-30 Oct. My bank as a Priority customer wanted me to let them know by 9 Oct.

BTW Witholding tax for retail investors on corporate bonds is 15%. So needs to be borne in mind also if comparing to cash rates. (Cash first 20k of interest can get without WHT on certain accounts)

Cheers

Fletch :)

Posted

I own Lion Global Vietnam Fund. I bought thru Standard Chartered Bank Singapore. I bought during a promotional period where the initial charge was reduced significantly though. Initial charge is normally 5%

http://www.lionglobalinvestors.com/en/funds/lionglobal-vietnam-fund-sgd-class/facts.html?fcode=LGVS&fname=LionGlobal%20Vietnam%20Fund%20SGD%20Class

Now could be a good time for Vietnam. Rest of 2013 and even into 2014 could be tough economically, plus Vietnamese equities have been beaten down, but given stock markets often lead the economy by 6 - 12 months and if you're looking longer term for value timing could be reasonable.

Dragon Capital may be another route

Cheers

Fletch :)

Posted

Anyone know of any funds that has a lot of exposure to Myanmar/ Vietnam stocks...preferably through a Thai bank ..

todays bangkok post had a story on PTT and a drilling platform in Myanmar - check it as I only briefly read it

Phillipines is going string

recent floods here if anything like 2011 will raise the infrastructure funds some

Posted

Anyone know of any funds that has a lot of exposure to Myanmar/ Vietnam stocks...preferably through a Thai bank ..

todays bangkok post had a story on PTT and a drilling platform in Myanmar - check it as I only briefly read it

Phillipines is going string

recent floods here if anything like 2011 will raise the infrastructure funds some

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/PTTEPs-gas-processing-living-quarters-platform-set-30216518.html

Posted

Anyone know of any funds that has a lot of exposure to Myanmar/ Vietnam stocks...preferably through a Thai bank ..

You might also be interested in something like Templeton Frontier Markets. I hold it thru Hargreaves Lansdown in UK. Has just over 6% weighting in VN, but as the name suggests also good exposures to other frontier markets.

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/t/templeton-frontier-markets-a-gbp-income/fund-analysis/geographical-analysis

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/t/templeton-frontier-markets-a-gbp-income/charts

2 comments on Vietnam:

1. Don't think there is anything you can buy in Thailand.

2. Personally I usually prefer funds with a wider remit than single country, tho' I do have some. The reason being is that an active fund manager can do the work for you and move around different markets as appropriate. With a single country, when that country struggles there's nowhere for the fund manager to switch to. So you either have to sell or hold and wait for recovery. Hence the preference for wider remits.

Cheers

Fletch

Posted

Cheers for responses..

Was looking at "Templeton Asian Growth" fund which you can buy through SCB under SCBAEM... but only covered Thai/China/India/Indonesia/St Korea markets and hasn't performed to well at all... only 10% in last 3 years.

Anyway, gonna sit on sidelines for next few weeks.,

Posted (edited)

I'd prefer both Aberdeen Pacific Equity and Aberdeen Global Emerging Growth to Templeton Asia and/or Templeton EM. Over 3 years to 30 Sep their performances are 28% and 14% respectively, tho' 3 years is a bit of a short time frame for these markets. Worth noting that these returns are for the THB versions in Thailand.

If you looked at the GBP equivalents which are easier to get graphs and comparisons on. Aberdeen has performed consistently above the sector benchmark and Templeton Emerging Markets consistently under the EM sector, same story for the Asia funds - both on discrete/individual year basis as well as cumulatively.

For me the "poor" performance of EM for the last 3 years has created a situation where they're looking more attractive, and the long term story is still good. Frontier markets as you mention also interesting.

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Edited by fletchsmile
Posted (edited)

I own Lion Global Vietnam Fund. I bought thru Standard Chartered Bank Singapore. I bought during a promotional period where the initial charge was reduced significantly though. Initial charge is normally 5%

http://www.lionglobalinvestors.com/en/funds/lionglobal-vietnam-fund-sgd-class/facts.html?fcode=LGVS&fname=LionGlobal%20Vietnam%20Fund%20SGD%20Class

Now could be a good time for Vietnam. Rest of 2013 and even into 2014 could be tough economically, plus Vietnamese equities have been beaten down, but given stock markets often lead the economy by 6 - 12 months and if you're looking longer term for value timing could be reasonable.

Dragon Capital may be another route

Cheers

Fletch :)'

These 5% entry fees to buy funds are a big no no (for me)- put 50K into a fund and you lose 2500 $ before you have even started. . Its crazy how in the Asia region most funds seem to charge similar fees yet you invest in a similar fund in the US or Europe and fees are way way way lower. As i mentioned on another thread, I have finally found a way round this- opening an etrade account in singapore that allows trading in US stocks, bonds and ETFs. Crucially etrade charges no fees for etfs only a flat 10$ fee when you buy it and when you sell.

Edited by ExpatJ
Posted
These 5% entry fees to buy funds are a big no no (for me)- put 50K into a fund and you lose 2500 $ before you have even started. . Its crazy how in the Asia region most funds seem to charge similar fees yet you invest in a similar fund in the US or Europe and fees are way way way lower. As i mentioned on another thread, I have finally found a way round this- opening an etrade account in singapore that allows trading in US stocks, bonds and ETFs. Crucially etrade charges no fees for etfs only a flat 10$ fee when you buy it and when you sell.

Yes, I totally refuse to pay anywhere near 5% entry to funds these days. Singapore seems to be one of the worst. Hence why I only ever buy funds there if there is a special promotion waving the up front fees.

In the UK, I get most of the funds I want discounted to 0 or near 0, by Hargreaves Lansdown. In Thailand, they're actually reasonable value at around 1% to 1.5% up front for many actively managed funds. In my view that's fine for the added convenience of buying here. Plus the consistent outperformance vs index when you do your research on best funds.

On ETFs I find them OK now and again for trading, but am not a fan for investing. It's true many active managed funds fail to beat the index in developed markets. In developing markets though it's easier to identify the funds that regularly beat the markets, so I prefer active managed to ETFs.

Cheers

Fletch :)

Posted
These 5% entry fees to buy funds are a big no no (for me)- put 50K into a fund and you lose 2500 $ before you have even started. . Its crazy how in the Asia region most funds seem to charge similar fees yet you invest in a similar fund in the US or Europe and fees are way way way lower. As i mentioned on another thread, I have finally found a way round this- opening an etrade account in singapore that allows trading in US stocks, bonds and ETFs. Crucially etrade charges no fees for etfs only a flat 10$ fee when you buy it and when you sell.

Yes, I totally refuse to pay anywhere near 5% entry to funds these days. Singapore seems to be one of the worst. Hence why I only ever buy funds there if there is a special promotion waving the up front fees.

In the UK, I get most of the funds I want discounted to 0 or near 0, by Hargreaves Lansdown. In Thailand, they're actually reasonable value at around 1% to 1.5% up front for many actively managed funds. In my view that's fine for the added convenience of buying here. Plus the consistent outperformance vs index when you do your research on best funds.

On ETFs I find them OK now and again for trading, but am not a fan for investing. It's true many active managed funds fail to beat the index in developed markets. In developing markets though it's easier to identify the funds that regularly beat the markets, so I prefer active managed to ETFs.

Cheers

Fletch :)[/quote

Good point about index funds outperforming managed funds consistently over time. i am over invested in Thai stocks as it is so need more US exposure. one good point about ETFs that I wasn't aware of until recently is that there are a much greater variety available than funds so you can really target specific sectors/ locations.

I'm also looking forward to parking a chunk of my portfolio into dividend paying blue chip (US) stocks and leaving it there till retirement (15-20years ) to accumulate. At the moment I have cash savings that I just don't have time to manage once I have managed my Thai portfolio.

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

For those looking for a little extra yield on their THB cash but not wanting equity risk, CPALL (7-11/Makro Group) have a debenture issue open 28-30 Oct.

http://www.cpall.co.th/Corporate/invest-in-cp-all

3 Year: 4.1%

5 Year: 4.7%

7 Year: 5.1%

10 Yr: 5.35%

In multiples of THB 100k. Interest paid semi-annually.

Note: WHT tax rate is 15% - same as on amounts in savings accounts where your total bank interest exceeds the 20k threshold.

Bank interest totals less than 20k per year on savings account doesn't need to suffer tax.

So just factor those in. I would expect that most people subscribing earn above 20k a year in bank interest though, so rates are easy to compare for them on savings accounts and fixed deposits, as all would be taxable at same rate.

We've applied for the 3 year with some XS cash in Mrs.Smile's name. Rates aren't great, but a bit better than the 3% on simple cash, albeit with some credit risk. I don't see bank interest rates on your THB cash being much above 4.1% within 3 years, but didn't want to lock in for 5 years though.

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Edited by fletchsmile
Posted

For those looking for a little extra yield on their THB cash but not wanting equity risk, CPALL (7-11/Makro Group) have a debenture issue open 28-30 Oct.

http://www.cpall.co.th/Corporate/invest-in-cp-all

3 Year: 4.1%

5 Year: 4.7%

7 Year: 5.1%

10 Yr: 5.35%

In multiples of THB 100k. Interest paid semi-annually.

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

tradeable or maturity only Fletch?

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