Rice-Pledging Scheme: How Much Have We Lost, Yingluck Asks

[OzMick]

"the status of the rice-pledging scheme in a bid to determine its profitability"

PROFITABILITY????? GTFOOH!

[jbrain]

When we gone have the statement

The UN Moody's is not my father.

Edited June 5, 2013 by jbrain

[digibum]

I anticipate that we shall see some interesting accounting.

Governments have a tendency to use funds in interesting ways. For example, in many western countries we see the monies collected for unemployment insurance plans or other benefit programs treated as part of the "revenues" which is then used to reduce a government deficit. It may look nice on paper, but it doesn't really fool the rating agencies.The cautionary lesson the Thai government should take away from that approach is that the numbers can be massaged and cooked, but the people doing the verifications will see through the hocus pocus trickery.

Forgive me, but I think it will play out this way;

- Government provides numbers

- Rating agencies pull them apart

- Government then claims these foreign devils are biased or don't understand the program and then do the usual huff and puff , bruised national pride, rally around the flag routine. Government then provides "explanation".

- Rating agencies question the numbers and then if the numbers are very bad downgrade the Thai sovereign debt rating.

I have a suggestion to the Thai government. Don't bother with the many month of arguing, and just accept the inevitable outcome now. Better yet, just address the rice pledging plan's problems.

Creative accounting really is the problem here.

If I'm remembering correctly, didn't the government sell bonds or something soon after Yingluck came into office? If you were being a little creative, couldn't you say that the bond proceeds were not part of the annual budget?

[winstonc]

can anyone enlighten me,,,if greece got into the eu,,on falsified claims about there economy,surely this government can do the same with the rice figures,are moodys really able to prove otherwise,,sreious question thanks all,,

[animatic]

can anyone enlighten me,,,if greece got into the eu,,on falsified claims about there economy,surely this government can do the same with the rice figures,are moodys really able to prove otherwise,,sreious question thanks all,,

I think the point is;

the good face they are putting on the loses is still so bad Moodys downgraded them and made it plain this was why.

As I said above, if this is what they are NOT hiding to save face, how bad is it really going to get?

Not particularly creative accounting, but inept accounting, or simply over ruled by political calculations/

We know PPP utterly ignored the USA derivatives crisis and Europes fall completely in favor of:

political numbers/cash pursuit, and bringing Thaksin home and making him richer.

Thailand got saved by Korn coming in with his plans to salvage the situation already formulated.

He succeeded.

So now PTP has an equally obsessive dual track world view to their end goals

and clearly no more competent financial management overview than before.

Plus obfuscating Red Shirt Ministers, more worried about the political manipulation than national survival...

This was totally foreseeable, and the chickens are now coming home to roost on the international stage.

Edited June 5, 2013 by animatic

[Thai at Heart]

I anticipate that we shall see some interesting accounting.

Governments have a tendency to use funds in interesting ways. For example, in many western countries we see the monies collected for unemployment insurance plans or other benefit programs treated as part of the "revenues" which is then used to reduce a government deficit. It may look nice on paper, but it doesn't really fool the rating agencies.The cautionary lesson the Thai government should take away from that approach is that the numbers can be massaged and cooked, but the people doing the verifications will see through the hocus pocus trickery.

Forgive me, but I think it will play out this way;

- Government provides numbers

- Rating agencies pull them apart

- Government then claims these foreign devils are biased or don't understand the program and then do the usual huff and puff , bruised national pride, rally around the flag routine. Government then provides "explanation".

- Rating agencies question the numbers and then if the numbers are very bad downgrade the Thai sovereign debt rating.

I have a suggestion to the Thai government. Don't bother with the many month of arguing, and just accept the inevitable outcome now. Better yet, just address the rice pledging plan's problems.

Creative accounting really is the problem here.

If I'm remembering correctly, didn't the government sell bonds or something soon after Yingluck came into office? If you were being a little creative, couldn't you say that the bond proceeds were not part of the annual budget?

Refusing to account is more the issue. They have bought the damn stuiff, and now the issue is to account for what it's worth.

There are boat loads of industry experts who could estimate that on the back of a fag packet, having been in the industry for decades. And yet, we have the government accounting for it, assuming no yield loss, no quality loss, no mould loss, and assuming they can see it at the price the paid for it, plus plus, when the world price for Thai rice FOB Bangkok is less.

When all of that is added up, as anyone with any knowledge of accounting would be able to do, the loss will probably be 200bn baht plus. The problem isn't necessarily the loss, it is that all the projections they showed the World Bank and Moodys themselves only a few months ago were a hell of a lot lower.

So, all Moody's is asking, is what is the reality. No white lies or rosy tints allowed.

[Thai at Heart]

can anyone enlighten me,,,if greece got into the eu,,on falsified claims about there economy,surely this government can do the same with the rice figures,are moodys really able to prove otherwise,,sreious question thanks all,,

After the debacle with subprime and the Eu, I think it's safe to say that ratings agencies are a little more cautious about porkie pies than in previous years.

[mancub]

What staggers me ,is that the government have only recently "evaluated" the scheme and have decided to continue it , without ,by their own admission ,the faintest idea of it's accounting !

Blindingly incompetent.

[Moruya]

The essence of this story is a big cover up as proved by the complete suppression of financial facts.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[MILT]

I can't see it being below 300 Billion myself.

There was mention of stock holding as if it is a positive. Correct me if I am wrong but if someone is in a situation where they are holding something which they bought for a higher value than they are going to be able to sell it for, you want to be holding as little as possible.

What on Earth are they going to do with around 18 million tonnes of insect ridden partially digested rice? This is a serious question I might add. Even if the government admit they were wrong and write off the whole amount or there is a coup or some such. Thailand is still going to have 18 million tonnes of rat magnet which they will have to deal with.

They will most likely parboil the rice and sell at 5% broken parboil. Which Africa and parts of the middle east to name just a few import this grade of rice.

[Mosha]

Time to call 1-800-SCAMBUST

[notmyself]

What staggers me ,is that the government have only recently "evaluated" the scheme and have decided to continue it , without ,by their own admission ,the faintest idea of it's accounting !

Blindingly incompetent.

There is no way in hell that they are going to admit that is was a bad idea so what other choice did they have?

[eddie61]

Im not an accountant, but I believe Moodys do know a bit about the subject.

My first search on google for "inventory valuation methods" yielded

"GAAP requires that all inventory reserves be stated and valued using either the cost or the market value method - whichever is lower"

I don't think the rating agencies or the debt buyers will give a toss about Nathawuts up-country roadshow......They are INDEPENDENT auditors!

Edited June 5, 2013 by eddie61

[ggold]

Once again the PM flees rather than answer questions.

She obviously doesn't understand her job.

Well it's just a 9-5 job for her, she is not responsible for what happens out of office hours!

[notmyself]

I can't see it being below 300 Billion myself.

There was mention of stock holding as if it is a positive. Correct me if I am wrong but if someone is in a situation where they are holding something which they bought for a higher value than they are going to be able to sell it for, you want to be holding as little as possible.

What on Earth are they going to do with around 18 million tonnes of insect ridden partially digested rice? This is a serious question I might add. Even if the government admit they were wrong and write off the whole amount or there is a coup or some such. Thailand is still going to have 18 million tonnes of rat magnet which they will have to deal with.

They will most likely parboil the rice and sell at 5% broken parboil. Which Africa and parts of the middle east to name just a few import this grade of rice.

At what sort of price? Could they get around WTO anti dumping regulations this way?

[digibum]

I can't see it being below 300 Billion myself.

There was mention of stock holding as if it is a positive. Correct me if I am wrong but if someone is in a situation where they are holding something which they bought for a higher value than they are going to be able to sell it for, you want to be holding as little as possible.

What on Earth are they going to do with around 18 million tonnes of insect ridden partially digested rice? This is a serious question I might add. Even if the government admit they were wrong and write off the whole amount or there is a coup or some such. Thailand is still going to have 18 million tonnes of rat magnet which they will have to deal with.

They will most likely parboil the rice and sell at 5% broken parboil. Which Africa and parts of the middle east to name just a few import this grade of rice.

At what sort of price? Could they get around WTO anti dumping regulations this way?

Exactly. The US and EU have already issued pretty stern warnings to Thailand that if they start dumping this rice on the market they won't put up with it.

[ramrod711]

How much have we lost? Yingluck asks

No seriously, she really has no clue, can someone please tell her what to say.

[moe666]

The Commerce Minister has been instructed to reveal the full costs of the scheme, at this point, but why was this ever necessary ? Shouldn't the figures already be in the public domain, under any transparent regime, it simply begs the question, what have they been trying to hide ever since the scheme started ?

And preparing figures to supply to Moody's themselves, why not make those same figures available-to-all on an on-going basis, including the tax-payers whose money has been lost on this foolish adventure ?

It's embarrassing that even the PM herself still doesn't know the facts, from month-to-month at least, no wonder she finds it hard to answer questions and runs away from the reporters' questions. Perhaps her brother should have kept her better-informed, perhaps she should have insisted that he do so, or perhaps its time to sack 'her' ministers who have failed to brief her properly !

The figures ought to detail current-volumes and ages of the government rice-stocks, and mark-to-market prices, not show them at purchase-cost, but will they ? Or will fudge continue to be the order-of-the-day ?

Full details of government-to-government deals must now be released, with the identities of counter-parties revealed, and tonnages contracted/shipped detailed, so that they can be verified by independent sources, also the prices agreed and actually paid (if yet paid), the time for claiming commercial-confidentiality is now way past !

One might also hope for more information on the BAAC, and how much of the government's debt in respect of this scheme, has ever been reimbursed to them, until then the markets and public might well question whether the bank's finances remain sound. This is serious stuff, given other recent bank-failures and the 1997-situation, the government's silence would risk serious loss-of-confidence in the Thai banking-system.

Until then, the market (and ratings-agencies) are fully-entitled to question the true cost of the scheme, and to threaten to down-grade Thai debt, in advance of the massive long-term borrowing demanded by the delayed flood-works and the ambitious infrastructure-improvements planned.

But somehow one doesn't expect the full truth to emerge just yet, despite all the promises, the excuses and blame-laying has a long way to run as yet.

Embarrassing when the PM doesn't know the facts you are assuming she wanted to know the facts

[bentleyboy]

Yingluck will be looking forward to addressing the rice farmers, they love her and wont ask difficult questions, they will happily take the money regardless of the severe damage it does to the Thai economy. More troublesome are the pesky journalists, and opposition politicians who are not as easily duped by the crazy business model she tries to defend. It goes like this:-

We will buy all the rice you can produce at prices significantly above world levels.

We will build huge silos to store the excess rice we cant sell

we will sell what we can at significant losses.

As inventories grow we will dump excess stocks on the world market depressing rice prices and compounding our problems.

The huge rice stocks that are still left and become unsalable will not be counted in our calculations.

The programme costs will exceed our original estimates by at least 400%

The losses are embarrassing, so the bean counters have been told to go back and cook the books. The rural poor might swallow it, the journos, opposition, and more importantly the international rating agencies certainly wont buy this fiction, which is unravelling before the prime minister's eyes.

[rametindallas]

How much have we lost? Yingluck asks

No seriously, she really has no clue, can someone please tell her what to say.

Answer: 100% of what we do not sell.

[allan michaud]

Some great quotes here.

The government yesterday ordered immediate verification of the status of the rice-pledging scheme in a bid to determine its profitability.

Hysterical, what profit?

He said the Finance Ministry "refused to give the official figures to him" at his request

<deleted>? So even a PTP minster can’t get figures from a government ministry.

She said the scheme spent around Bt600 million in two years' budget, plus a large amount before the Yingluck government took office.

<deleted>? But I thought this latest incarnation of the rice scam only started under Yingluck?

Clearly they are all trying to muddy the waters so much that no one will have a clear idea what the real figures are, while at the same time also trying to blame some of this on earlier governments. I somehow doubt that the financial vultures at Moody’s will allow PTP to pull the wool over their
eyes.

They should get “The Plod” or Chalerm on the job.

[notmyself]

and more importantly the international rating agencies certainly wont buy this fiction

THAT is the key.... You can't buy their votes.

[SICHONSTEVE]

It's largely irrelevant anyway what the estimated loss is. They can't and haven't sold much so the system will need refinancing eventually anyway.

Its not a loss stupid!!! it is profitable, as they have said so.

Why don't the press, public and everyone else leave this government alone so that they can carry on with the fine job that they are doing governing the country!!!.

[rametindallas]

When Moodys downgrades Thailand's credit rating, this will make that 2.2 - 2.5 trillion Baht infrastructure improvement loan all the more difficult/costly and, hopefully, impossible to finance.

[bentleyboy]

The Commerce Minister has been instructed to reveal the full costs of the scheme, at this point, but why was this ever necessary ? Shouldn't the figures already be in the public domain, under any transparent regime, it simply begs the question, what have they been trying to hide ever since the scheme started ?

And preparing figures to supply to Moody's themselves, why not make those same figures available-to-all on an on-going basis, including the tax-payers whose money has been lost on this foolish adventure ?

It's embarrassing that even the PM herself still doesn't know the facts, from month-to-month at least, no wonder she finds it hard to answer questions and runs away from the reporters' questions. Perhaps her brother should have kept her better-informed, perhaps she should have insisted that he do so, or perhaps its time to sack 'her' ministers who have failed to brief her properly !

The figures ought to detail current-volumes and ages of the government rice-stocks, and mark-to-market prices, not show them at purchase-cost, but will they ? Or will fudge continue to be the order-of-the-day ?

Full details of government-to-government deals must now be released, with the identities of counter-parties revealed, and tonnages contracted/shipped detailed, so that they can be verified by independent sources, also the prices agreed and actually paid (if yet paid), the time for claiming commercial-confidentiality is now way past !

One might also hope for more information on the BAAC, and how much of the government's debt in respect of this scheme, has ever been reimbursed to them, until then the markets and public might well question whether the bank's finances remain sound. This is serious stuff, given other recent bank-failures and the 1997-situation, the government's silence would risk serious loss-of-confidence in the Thai banking-system.

Until then, the market (and ratings-agencies) are fully-entitled to question the true cost of the scheme, and to threaten to down-grade Thai debt, in advance of the massive long-term borrowing demanded by the delayed flood-works and the ambitious infrastructure-improvements planned.

But somehow one doesn't expect the full truth to emerge just yet, despite all the promises, the excuses and blame-laying has a long way to run as yet.

Embarrassing when the PM doesn't know the facts you are assuming she wanted to know the facts

The prime minister knows the facts, she is delaying her answers until the facts have been massaged to fit the Pheu Thai mantra.

[pb1936]

Likely outcome of this appalling situation :

Further downgrade by Moody's.

Continued fudging and distortion by the Government.

Losses of huge magnitude, but denied by Government.

No true details released by Government.

No one ever held to account.

Announcement of new " all singing " scheme.

The stunning thing seems to be that most Thais are not interested.

[Thai at Heart]

It's largely irrelevant anyway what the estimated loss is. They can't and haven't sold much so the system will need refinancing eventually anyway.

Its not a loss stupid!!! it is profitable, as they have said so.

Why don't the press, public and everyone else leave this government alone so that they can carry on with the fine job that they are doing governing the country!!!.

As I said, estimated loss. As yet unrealised. But unfortuately if you get into the agricultural commodities business, valuing long term stock in the warehouse is one of those extremely annoying things to do, because it shows you good and proper that you boughteither, the wrong stuff or,at the wrong price or, at the wrong time.

Any one of these issues causes problems.

Seems the current rice scheme fulfills all three.

[bigbamboo]

Some great quotes here.

The government yesterday ordered immediate verification of the status of the rice-pledging scheme in a bid to determine its profitability.

Hysterical, what profit?

He said the Finance Ministry "refused to give the official figures to him" at his request

<deleted>? So even a PTP minster can’t get figures from a government ministry.

She said the scheme spent around Bt600 million in two years' budget, plus a large amount before the Yingluck government took office.

<deleted>? But I thought this latest incarnation of the rice scam only started under Yingluck?

Clearly they are all trying to muddy the waters so much that no one will have a clear idea what the real figures are, while at the same time also trying to blame some of this on earlier governments. I somehow doubt that the financial vultures at Moody’s will allow PTP to pull the wool over their

eyes.

They should get “The Plod” or Chalerm on the job.

The bullxxxx is flowing fast and heavy on this one but lt's always fun to see bent politicians squirming in their comfy chairs when the bigger boys come round!

[Mosha]

The Commerce Minister has been instructed to reveal the full costs of the scheme, at this point, but why was this ever necessary ? Shouldn't the figures already be in the public domain, under any transparent regime, it simply begs the question, what have they been trying to hide ever since the scheme started ?

And preparing figures to supply to Moody's themselves, why not make those same figures available-to-all on an on-going basis, including the tax-payers whose money has been lost on this foolish adventure ?

It's embarrassing that even the PM herself still doesn't know the facts, from month-to-month at least, no wonder she finds it hard to answer questions and runs away from the reporters' questions. Perhaps her brother should have kept her better-informed, perhaps she should have insisted that he do so, or perhaps its time to sack 'her' ministers who have failed to brief her properly !

The figures ought to detail current-volumes and ages of the government rice-stocks, and mark-to-market prices, not show them at purchase-cost, but will they ? Or will fudge continue to be the order-of-the-day ?

Full details of government-to-government deals must now be released, with the identities of counter-parties revealed, and tonnages contracted/shipped detailed, so that they can be verified by independent sources, also the prices agreed and actually paid (if yet paid), the time for claiming commercial-confidentiality is now way past !

One might also hope for more information on the BAAC, and how much of the government's debt in respect of this scheme, has ever been reimbursed to them, until then the markets and public might well question whether the bank's finances remain sound. This is serious stuff, given other recent bank-failures and the 1997-situation, the government's silence would risk serious loss-of-confidence in the Thai banking-system.

Until then, the market (and ratings-agencies) are fully-entitled to question the true cost of the scheme, and to threaten to down-grade Thai debt, in advance of the massive long-term borrowing demanded by the delayed flood-works and the ambitious infrastructure-improvements planned.

But somehow one doesn't expect the full truth to emerge just yet, despite all the promises, the excuses and blame-laying has a long way to run as yet.

Embarrassing when the PM doesn't know the facts you are assuming she wanted to know the facts

As I've said before. Plausible Deniability.

[SICHONSTEVE]

It's largely irrelevant anyway what the estimated loss is. They can't and haven't sold much so the system will need refinancing eventually anyway.

Its not a loss stupid!!! it is profitable, as they have said so.

Why don't the press, public and everyone else leave this government alone so that they can carry on with the fine job that they are doing governing the country!!!.

As I said, estimated loss. As yet unrealised. But unfortuately if you get into the agricultural commodities business, valuing long term stock in the warehouse is one of those extremely annoying things to do, because it shows you good and proper that you boughteither, the wrong stuff or,at the wrong price or, at the wrong time.

Any one of these issues causes problems.

Seems the current rice scheme fulfills all three.

Its not even an estimated loss, they are making money apparently.

Your going to tell me you don't believe them, aren't you!!!

Shame on you!!