Aussie Dollar Vs The Thai Baht - The Downtrend Continues - Where Will It End?

[David48]

.

Aussie dollar vs the Thai Baht - the downtrend continues - where will it end?

For a long time the Aussie dollar has been a darling of the business world, but recently this affair has tarnished and the Aussie Dollar, when matched against the Thai Baht continues to decline in value.

Weekly Graph

Monthly graph ... looks good, but that spike I would suggest is when Thailand cut it's interest rate by a quarter of a percent.

When you step back and look at the longer term view ... it's definitely in decline.

Earlier discussion here

Good possibility of another Interest Rate cute in Australia

... how low can the Aussie Battler go?

.

[PattayaPhom]

But THB has depreciated the past week against other currencies and USD is above 30. AUS is in decline and likely 25 in the next few months due to the economy. Ford are closing down, mining is in reverse as much is funded by the Chineese whos economy is shrinking. Get your bucks here now if you can.

[Old Croc]

I was going to move a couple of hundred thousand dollars two months ago. Illness laid me low and I didn't get it done.

Watching the decline now with great dismay, not sure what to do.

[Pib]

Many analysts seem to tie the rise or fall of the AUD to the China economy. As the China economy slows downs and need less raw materials (a major export/component of the Oz economy) the AUD goes down; as the China economy picks up and needs more raw materials the AUD goes up. Although the China economy is still going great in the 7% GDP growth ballpark that is down from growth over the last decade where growth well above 10% per year was common. If this link to the China economy is true and China is settling into a new, lower GDP growth per year then the AUD may be settling into (or returning to) a new, lower exchange rate ballpark. And what drives the China economy: exports...exports to places like Europe, the US, etc., whose economies have also slowed down over the last few years. I guess with all the global economies interfacing with each other, when the global economy slows down the need for raw materials slows down which is a major driver of the Aussie economy. But with what I just said, when it comes to the currency market/exchange rates it sure seems nothing makes much sense some times....what made a currency rise last year is blamed for its decline the following year...makes my head hurt.

[Gerald14]

I was going to move a couple of hundred thousand dollars two months ago. Illness laid me low and I didn't get it done.

Watching the decline now with great dismay, not sure what to do.

I would do it asap, you can still get about 29THB for the AUD

[mommysboy]

If the baht remains strong then i would guess 26. luckily for the skips I think the baht is up for a well deserved ragging and it could be it will stay around 29 mark.

[NeverSure]

Australia made the mistake of coupling too much of its economy to China, ie sales of minerals etc. China is in decline and will stay that way.

The cost of doing business is very high in Australia and it can't attract or keep enough foreign investment, ie Ford.

Australia's economy is small by world standards and it hasn't developed much of its own technology nor do its companies own a lot of technology to sell.

I wouldn't keep a lot of money in Australia, and I sure wouldn't move it to Thailand. I'd be thinking more like The US. Both Australia and Thailand need production and investment from foreign countries for job creation, and of course Australia has a lot of natural resources which represent wealth, but rely on a healthy economy.

Asia, with the exception of Indonesia and Japan and perhaps S. Korea are in decline. They have seen their heyday. That includes China. If you are retiring to Thailand, I'd get my money to what's considered a safe haven, believe it or not even Canada, The US or the UK, and wait for the baht to take a dump.

Thailand is belly up and the pundits just don't seem to see it yet although Moody's does seem to see the rice scheme to some extent, and the SET may be reflecting opinions of Thailand although it's too soon to tell. If Moody's wants to, and is allowed to do a thorough audit of the banks and the rice scheme, it's all over for Thailand.

Also you have recently seen Japan and the US snub Thailand in favor of Burma due to Thailand's associations with China and Iran, so there's more to it than just economies working.

I don't know how long it will take but Thailand is going to crash due to a bunch of things like the rice, new car, new house schemes, a huge real estate bubble, consumer debt, insolvent banks, resistance to foreigners owning their own investments and making their own business plans, high import taxes, unwillingness to let people from other countries work and bring capital to work with, massive corruption touching almost everything, political instability and the list goes on.

I'm parking my money away from the SET and Thai real estate and the baht, and waiting it out.

Good luck.

[David48]

A small blip overnight, I transferred AUD $7,000 over this morning and got 28.71 on the conversion.

But a far cry from the 30.50 or 31 I was getting last year.

.

[yoshiwara]

I thought AUSUSD would not step out of its .96-1.05 spread but wrong on that assumption. Market is anticipating another interest rate drop and the commodity boom seen on a downtrend, so some integral weakness there. On the other hand THB under pressure, so looks like a draw to me.

[NeverSure]

Well, don't forget that the US is driving the dollar value as low as it can by several means including interest rates to help exports. The UK is doing the same. it is easier for the US to do, so currency values aren't always based on more than where someone can get the highest interest rate for a risk that's acceptable to him. Often exchange rates don't really reflect the economy except maybe in reverse.

[yoshiwara]

Well, don't forget that the US is driving the dollar value as low as it can by several means including interest rates to help exports. The UK is doing the same. it is easier for the US to do, so currency values aren't always based on more than where someone can get the highest interest rate for a risk that's acceptable to him. Often exchange rates don't really reflect the economy except maybe in reverse.

Just blah.

[aarn]

Well, us aussies were living high on the hog, off the fat of the lamb up to the 1970s, then off the fat of the fat of the land (thanks to Gina and co. sending boatloads of it to China/India) until this year. Now we've inevitably come-a-cropper 'coz various governments sold off state enterprises, which now can't afford to do business in oz 'coz the wages are too high. What industrial base there once was... is going down the gurgler of companies moving maintenance offshore, and CEOs sucking up $Ms for downsizing their workforce.

When the Chinese and Indian economies level out, there's gonna be a lot of unemployed aussies running around trying to catch and eat any remaining wooly jumpers, or following Bob Katter up to the tropics and growing vegies. But it has been good fiddlin' while R(H)ome burned...

Getting off me high horse, cheers, AA

[pistachios]

Australia made the mistake of coupling too much of its economy to China, ie sales of minerals etc. China is in decline and will stay that way.

The cost of doing business is very high in Australia and it can't attract or keep enough foreign investment, ie Ford.

Australia's economy is small by world standards and it hasn't developed much of its own technology nor do its companies own a lot of technology to sell.

I wouldn't keep a lot of money in Australia, and I sure wouldn't move it to Thailand. I'd be thinking more like The US. Both Australia and Thailand need production and investment from foreign countries for job creation, and of course Australia has a lot of natural resources which represent wealth, but rely on a healthy economy.

Asia, with the exception of Indonesia and Japan and perhaps S. Korea are in decline. They have seen their heyday. That includes China. If you are retiring to Thailand, I'd get my money to what's considered a safe haven, believe it or not even Canada, The US or the UK, and wait for the baht to take a dump.

Thailand is belly up and the pundits just don't seem to see it yet although Moody's does seem to see the rice scheme to some extent, and the SET may be reflecting opinions of Thailand although it's too soon to tell. If Moody's wants to, and is allowed to do a thorough audit of the banks and the rice scheme, it's all over for Thailand.

Also you have recently seen Japan and the US snub Thailand in favor of Burma due to Thailand's associations with China and Iran, so there's more to it than just economies working.

I don't know how long it will take but Thailand is going to crash due to a bunch of things like the rice, new car, new house schemes, a huge real estate bubble, consumer debt, insolvent banks, resistance to foreigners owning their own investments and making their own business plans, high import taxes, unwillingness to let people from other countries work and bring capital to work with, massive corruption touching almost everything, political instability and the list goes on.

I'm parking my money away from the SET and Thai real estate and the baht, and waiting it out.

Good luck.

Considering your posting history, it seems you never had a single baht invested in Thai real estate or on the SET to start with...

[David48]

Don't forget this is about the AUD vs THB ... not the USD.

Where you think the floor maybe under that exchange rate.

As for me, I have about 2mil in the SET, been investing for the past 4 years with some handsom returns ... probably more due to good fortune then astute stock selection.

Just saying like ...

.

[yoshiwara]

Don't forget this is about the AUD vs THB ... not the USD.

Where you think the floor maybe under that exchange rate.

As for me, I have about 2mil in the SET, been investing for the past 4 years with some handsom returns ... probably more due to good fortune then astute stock selection.

Just saying like ...

.

Re your performance on the SET, don't knock it. You had to put yourself in a position to benefit from said luck.

[Huayrat]

I think its Karma for you Australians.. you can thank the stupid ozzie that was on the British pound thread boasting and laughing at the British Exats that live here.. Its no fun thats for sure and now its come back to bite him in the ass.. I hope your currency sorts itself out soon as i know what the pain feels like of losing 10,000 baht everymonth

Edited June 9, 2013 by metisdead
Underscore removed.

[samran]

I think its Karma for you Australians.. you can thank the stupid ozzie that was on the British pound thread boasting and laughing at the British Exats that live here.. Its no fun thats for sure and now its come back to bite him in the ass.. I hope your currency sorts itself out soon as i know what the pain feels like of losing 10,000 baht everymonth

Do you make a habit of going around wishing misfortune on people you meet real life as well?

Edited June 7, 2013 by samran

[swissie]

Australia is a "raw-material-exporter". It's wealth is based on it. If the demand for those "raw-materials" declines, it will find it's reflection immediately in the currency-exchange-rate.

Supply and demand runs in cycles, let's hope that the current "Downward-Cycle" on the demand side is only a temporary occurrence and demand from S/E Asia will pick up soon.

This especially, since in the last 150 years, Australia has not been able to establish itself as an industrialized nation that can pride itself of selling industrialized products "Made in Australia" that find acceptance across the world.

Cheers.

[Huayrat]

I think its Karma for you Australians.. you can thank the stupid ozzie that was on the British pound thread boasting and laughing at the British Exats that live here.. Its no fun thats for sure and now its come back to bite him in the ass.. I hope your currency sorts itself out soon as i know what the pain feels like of losing 10,000 baht everymonth

Do you make a habit of going around wishing misfortune on people you meet real life as well?

why dont you read it properly?? Im happy that its now biting his ass.. Did you read where i said i hope it sorts itself out for you or dont you understand english?

[samran]

I think its Karma for you Australians.. you can thank the stupid ozzie that was on the British pound thread boasting and laughing at the British Exats that live here.. Its no fun thats for sure and now its come back to bite him in the ass.. I hope your currency sorts itself out soon as i know what the pain feels like of losing 10,000 baht everymonth

Do you make a habit of going around wishing misfortune on people you meet real life as well?

why dont you read it properly?? Im happy that its now biting his ass.. Did you read where i said i hope it sorts itself out for you or dont you understand english?

I understand English when it is written in its proper form. Yours, not so much.

[NeverSure]

Australia made the mistake of coupling too much of its economy to China, ie sales of minerals etc. China is in decline and will stay that way.

The cost of doing business is very high in Australia and it can't attract or keep enough foreign investment, ie Ford.

Australia's economy is small by world standards and it hasn't developed much of its own technology nor do its companies own a lot of technology to sell.

I wouldn't keep a lot of money in Australia, and I sure wouldn't move it to Thailand. I'd be thinking more like The US. Both Australia and Thailand need production and investment from foreign countries for job creation, and of course Australia has a lot of natural resources which represent wealth, but rely on a healthy economy.

Asia, with the exception of Indonesia and Japan and perhaps S. Korea are in decline. They have seen their heyday. That includes China. If you are retiring to Thailand, I'd get my money to what's considered a safe haven, believe it or not even Canada, The US or the UK, and wait for the baht to take a dump.

Thailand is belly up and the pundits just don't seem to see it yet although Moody's does seem to see the rice scheme to some extent, and the SET may be reflecting opinions of Thailand although it's too soon to tell. If Moody's wants to, and is allowed to do a thorough audit of the banks and the rice scheme, it's all over for Thailand.

Also you have recently seen Japan and the US snub Thailand in favor of Burma due to Thailand's associations with China and Iran, so there's more to it than just economies working.

I don't know how long it will take but Thailand is going to crash due to a bunch of things like the rice, new car, new house schemes, a huge real estate bubble, consumer debt, insolvent banks, resistance to foreigners owning their own investments and making their own business plans, high import taxes, unwillingness to let people from other countries work and bring capital to work with, massive corruption touching almost everything, political instability and the list goes on.

I'm parking my money away from the SET and Thai real estate and the baht, and waiting it out.

Good luck.

Considering your posting history, it seems you never had a single baht invested in Thai real estate or on the SET to start with...

No, because I think it's built on a house of cards. Don't forget. Other countries have had very good run-ups in their stock markets, and real estate is cheap in some places right now. I will never buy anything important in a country as corrupt as Thailand. Don't forget that your permission to even stay in LOS is good for only one year and even then you must report. Those rules could change and you might never see your condo again. If someone thinks he owns a house, up to him. I don't play that game.

[David48]

"The Australian Dollar AUD has now dropped 3 cents in 3 days to a 3 year low."

... but not just against the USD ... the fall has been across the board.

The Trade Balance is still a surplus but much less then last month and much less then expected by the Market.

Exports to China has fully recovered

Rural exports have soared to a record high.

Above from the Kholer Report

Actually click the Kholer Report ... it runs for less then 2 minutes and a good information source.

.

[geriatrickid]

I don't think the change in FX is anything to worry about and the slow adjustment is not extraordinary.

The mirror currency of the AUD is the CAD. Like Australia, there was a rush to buy up Canadian $$ as the USD and EU were wobbling. As the US economy continues its slow but steady recovery, the USD has strengthened against the AUD and CAD and the 2 currencies dropped a bit. The THB is still holding strong, and I am of the belief that there will eventually be a correction with the THB. It will most likely be sudden, although not unexpected for anyone familiar with the THB historic fluctuations.

IMO the Australian and Canadian economies and currency are well managed to the extent that the central banks and finance ministers are able to transition currency adjustments instead of allowing for a change to come all at once as has often been the case in many Asian economies.

Analysts are of the view that we will see a further "weakening" of the AUD and CAD. I keep referencing Canada because it demonstrates that the change in FX on the AUD is nothing peculiar to Australia or that Australians are twits when it comes to managing their economy. On the contrary, Australia and Canada are considered 2 of the better managed economies and currencies, and their banks are in the top 50 of the worlds safest banks.

Although the weakening may be hurting some expats, it is good for the Australian economy as a whole. When the AUD was strong it really hurt exports. The slight decreases offer much needed relief for all of Australia's exporters.I note the comments about Chinese investments in Australia. Well the same situation has occurred in Canada. This does work in both economies favour as it takes the money that China made from its exports of garbage products to the foreign economies and returns it back. True, the Chinese own some important assets, but they only own it as long as the foreign country doesn't do a "China", aka nationalise the asset. It also gives China an incentive not to misbehave as it could lose billions otherwise.

IMO the THB is over valued and owes much of its robust characteristic to some skillful massaging of the national numbers. Former finance minister Korn was good at understanding the foreign markets and could read the analysts pretty well. He didn't push the envelope, although by the end of his tenure, his large spending initiatives were drawing questions. Then came the folks of the PTP. IMO, the deck of cards will collapse during a PTP government as they are a tad too brazen. Once the rice pledging scheme numbers start getting picked apart, we will see an immediate impact on the THB. The AUD will then start to improve on the THB.

Just my own personal assessment. No offense to the Australians, but I think you are better off with AUD than THB over the long term.

[yoshiwara]

Australia made the mistake of coupling too much of its economy to China, ie sales of minerals etc. China is in decline and will stay that way.

The cost of doing business is very high in Australia and it can't attract or keep enough foreign investment, ie Ford.

Australia's economy is small by world standards and it hasn't developed much of its own technology nor do its companies own a lot of technology to sell.

I wouldn't keep a lot of money in Australia, and I sure wouldn't move it to Thailand. I'd be thinking more like The US. Both Australia and Thailand need production and investment from foreign countries for job creation, and of course Australia has a lot of natural resources which represent wealth, but rely on a healthy economy.

Asia, with the exception of Indonesia and Japan and perhaps S. Korea are in decline. They have seen their heyday. That includes China. If you are retiring to Thailand, I'd get my money to what's considered a safe haven, believe it or not even Canada, The US or the UK, and wait for the baht to take a dump.

Thailand is belly up and the pundits just don't seem to see it yet although Moody's does seem to see the rice scheme to some extent, and the SET may be reflecting opinions of Thailand although it's too soon to tell. If Moody's wants to, and is allowed to do a thorough audit of the banks and the rice scheme, it's all over for Thailand.

Also you have recently seen Japan and the US snub Thailand in favor of Burma due to Thailand's associations with China and Iran, so there's more to it than just economies working.

I don't know how long it will take but Thailand is going to crash due to a bunch of things like the rice, new car, new house schemes, a huge real estate bubble, consumer debt, insolvent banks, resistance to foreigners owning their own investments and making their own business plans, high import taxes, unwillingness to let people from other countries work and bring capital to work with, massive corruption touching almost everything, political instability and the list goes on.

I'm parking my money away from the SET and Thai real estate and the baht, and waiting it out.

Good luck.

Considering your posting history, it seems you never had a single baht invested in Thai real estate or on the SET to start with...

No, because I think it's built on a house of cards. Don't forget. Other countries have had very good run-ups in their stock markets, and real estate is cheap in some places right now. I will never buy anything important in a country as corrupt as Thailand. Don't forget that your permission to even stay in LOS is good for only one year and even then you must report. Those rules could change and you might never see your condo again. If someone thinks he owns a house, up to him. I don't play that game.

= what re AUSTHB ?

[yoshiwara]

IMO the Australian and Canadian economies and currency are well managed to the extent that the central banks and finance ministers are able to transition currency adjustments instead of allowing for a change to come all at once as has often been the case in many Asian economies.

If the dive in AUSUSD in a matter of weeks was replicated in the THB there would be screaming here all round.

[chainarong]

Australia made the mistake of coupling too much of its economy to China, ie sales of minerals etc. China is in decline and will stay that way.

The cost of doing business is very high in Australia and it can't attract or keep enough foreign investment, ie Ford.

Australia's economy is small by world standards and it hasn't developed much of its own technology nor do its companies own a lot of technology to sell.

I wouldn't keep a lot of money in Australia, and I sure wouldn't move it to Thailand. I'd be thinking more like The US. Both Australia and Thailand need production and investment from foreign countries for job creation, and of course Australia has a lot of natural resources which represent wealth, but rely on a healthy economy.

Asia, with the exception of Indonesia and Japan and perhaps S. Korea are in decline. They have seen their heyday. That includes China. If you are retiring to Thailand, I'd get my money to what's considered a safe haven, believe it or not even Canada, The US or the UK, and wait for the baht to take a dump.

Thailand is belly up and the pundits just don't seem to see it yet although Moody's does seem to see the rice scheme to some extent, and the SET may be reflecting opinions of Thailand although it's too soon to tell. If Moody's wants to, and is allowed to do a thorough audit of the banks and the rice scheme, it's all over for Thailand.

Also you have recently seen Japan and the US snub Thailand in favor of Burma due to Thailand's associations with China and Iran, so there's more to it than just economies working.

I don't know how long it will take but Thailand is going to crash due to a bunch of things like the rice, new car, new house schemes, a huge real estate bubble, consumer debt, insolvent banks, resistance to foreigners owning their own investments and making their own business plans, high import taxes, unwillingness to let people from other countries work and bring capital to work with, massive corruption touching almost everything, political instability and the list goes on.

I'm parking my money away from the SET and Thai real estate and the baht, and waiting it out.

Good luck.

Australia had no choice but to go the chinese way , it had nothing else happening, now it's nothing happening, West Oz is on the verge of a depression

[NeverSure]

Australia made the mistake of coupling too much of its economy to China, ie sales of minerals etc. China is in decline and will stay that way.

The cost of doing business is very high in Australia and it can't attract or keep enough foreign investment, ie Ford.

Australia's economy is small by world standards and it hasn't developed much of its own technology nor do its companies own a lot of technology to sell.

I wouldn't keep a lot of money in Australia, and I sure wouldn't move it to Thailand. I'd be thinking more like The US. Both Australia and Thailand need production and investment from foreign countries for job creation, and of course Australia has a lot of natural resources which represent wealth, but rely on a healthy economy.

Asia, with the exception of Indonesia and Japan and perhaps S. Korea are in decline. They have seen their heyday. That includes China. If you are retiring to Thailand, I'd get my money to what's considered a safe haven, believe it or not even Canada, The US or the UK, and wait for the baht to take a dump.

Thailand is belly up and the pundits just don't seem to see it yet although Moody's does seem to see the rice scheme to some extent, and the SET may be reflecting opinions of Thailand although it's too soon to tell. If Moody's wants to, and is allowed to do a thorough audit of the banks and the rice scheme, it's all over for Thailand.

Also you have recently seen Japan and the US snub Thailand in favor of Burma due to Thailand's associations with China and Iran, so there's more to it than just economies working.

I don't know how long it will take but Thailand is going to crash due to a bunch of things like the rice, new car, new house schemes, a huge real estate bubble, consumer debt, insolvent banks, resistance to foreigners owning their own investments and making their own business plans, high import taxes, unwillingness to let people from other countries work and bring capital to work with, massive corruption touching almost everything, political instability and the list goes on.

I'm parking my money away from the SET and Thai real estate and the baht, and waiting it out.

Good luck.

Australia had no choice but to go the chinese way , it had nothing else happening, now it's nothing happening, West Oz is on the verge of a depression

I understand. I just hate to see a Western country (like Australia is considered to be) actually selling rights to its resources, especially to the likes of China. Now if China doesn't use them, the country is stuck. It can't shop for another buyer such as Japan or others.

I will say again that many people have bought far too deeply into the idea that China is the next big economy. China is in far more trouble than it will admit yet. That leaves Australia pretty much stuck, having sold rights to China. China has been trying to buy up resources all over the world - resources it has no use for. A lot of people who jumped on the China bandwagon are going to get burned.

[Huayrat]

Lets hope it keeps falling then coz samran is another nobber.. feel the pain dude haha

[Sandman77]

Yesterday I read , Australia for Europeans is still one of the most expensive country to make holiday comparing to other country's!

I read that food price in austrialia go down, very nice but I don't know reason why?

[PCA]

Yesterday I read , Australia for Europeans is still one of the most expensive country to make holiday comparing to other country's!

I read that food price in austrialia go down, very nice but I don't know reason why?

because Spiderman resides there