Bad Credit Rating Or Not, The Outlook Doesn't Look Good: Thai Opinion

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE
Bad credit rating or not, the outlook doesn't look good
Thanong Khanthong


A rice warehouse in Samut Prakan province. Thailand has been the world

BANGKOK: -- Moody's Investors Service has threatened to issue a negative outlook for Thailand's credit rating, which is now assigned a "Baa1" rating. It is also reviewing risks associated with the sub-debt of the major banks of Thailand, given the fact that Thailand has shifted away from its policy of providing a blank cheque for bank bailouts in times of crisis. Is Moody's threat justified?

Moody's officials have been visiting Thailand over the past months. They have specifically raised concern over the cost of the rice price-pledging programme and the political stability of the Kingdom.

Like many others, Moody's is confused and concerned by the potential losses of the Thai government from the damaging rice-price scheme. Fresh estimates have implied losses of Bt200 billion for the 2011-2012 harvest year. The World Bank earlier put the losses at Bt115 billion. But the Finance Ministry has sought to play down the losses, saying that they could range between Bt70 billion and Bt100 billion. The Thai government so far has ploughed more than Bt600 billion into the policy of buying every single grain of rice from farmers at prices significantly higher than the market rates.

The losses from the rice scheme have aroused concern from Moody's that the Thai government might not be able to balance its budget by 2017. "The Thai authorities appear committed to maintaining the scheme unchanged. These recent losses, and any future losses from the unmodified rice buying scheme, increase the difficulty of the government's task of reaching its goal of a balanced budget by 2017, and are credit negative for Thailand," Moody's said.

Deputy Prime Minister Kittiratt Na Ranong has been taken aback by the sudden Moody's announcement. Finance Ministry officials can no longer sit still. Kittiratt, in particular, has been banking on economic success via relatively high gross domestic product growth and a stock market boom. A Moody's change of outlook for Thailand could complicate the economic management strategy. Both the Bank of Thailand and the Thailand Development Research Institute have come out to warn that a Moody's downgrade could result in higher borrowing costs for the Kingdom as a whole.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said she had instructed the Finance Ministry to closely monitor Moody's analysis, and confirmed that the government was ready to provide the agency with complete information prior to a rating downgrade.

Asked why the government did not clarify the rice scheme's loss to the public, the premier said the figures were still unofficial. Even Yingluck does not know the actual potential losses from the rice scheme. A TISCO report played down the concern of a downgrade. It said: "Thailand's current rating is Baa1 with stable outlook by Moody's. We think in the worst-case scenario Moody's is likely to downgrade the outlook (not the rating) before a rating downgrade, as Moody's usually does. There are some cases when a rating downgrade came before an outlook downgrade, such as Greece and Egypt, due to their potential defaults. However, this should not be the case for Thailand."

Regarding the risks of the commercial banks' subordinated debt, Moody's said it has put the outlook for the banks' subordinated debt to negative because regulars in Thailand and the region are more reluctant to provide a 100 per cent bailout for the financial system, like in the past. The banks whose subordinated debts are under review are Bangkok Bank, KasikornBank and Siam Commercial Bank.

While Moody's power to sway the emerging markets remains strong, the question is whether we should continue to heed its warnings. The role of the credit rating agencies is very controversial. All the major rating agencies - Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch Rating - failed to predict the Wall Street crisis that resulted in the collapse of US markets in 2008. They failed to warn investors about the true risks of the credit default swaps of Wall Street banks and AIG. Standard & Poor's has run into a brick wall following its downgrade of the US government sovereign outlook, threatening to remove the triple A status of US government debt.

The rating practices of the credit rating agencies have raised questions about their credibility. Many euro zone countries are facing abnormally higher unemployment, banking crises, unsustainable sovereign debt and negative GDP growth, but the ratings assigned to these countries remain relatively high compared to the emerging-market countries.

Although we should exercise caution about the rating assignments of the credit rating agencies, this does not mean that the Thai government is doing a fine job with its fiscal management. The losses from the rice price-pledging scheme, the future debts associated with the water management programme (of Bt350 billion) and the infrastructure projects (of Bt2 trillion) - not to mention the losses of the state-controlled banks - will certainly put the country's fiscal position under pressure and raise the country's public debt. The outlook for Thailand, with or without Moody's warning, is negative indeed.


-- The Nation 2013-06-07

[bigbamboo]

The sad thing is that with the right people in power Thailand and it's people could be doing very well.

The country needs a heroic figure to show it the way but that is unlikely to happen here.

[ianf]

The sad thing is that with the right people in power Thailand and it's people could be doing very well.

The country needs a heroic figure to show it the way but that is unlikely to happen here.

It's the Thai way! They have a 'heroic' figure in Thaksin but they may as well have chosen Mr Bean. After more than 4 years here I simply do not understand the Thai mentality. How can they continue to back this buffoon and his family? To me it is so transparent that it beggars belief that people can't see their 'hero' for what he really is. Most of the policies enacted are decided on a whim, it seems. Long term is not a concept these people understand.

Edited June 7, 2013 by ianf

[NongKhaiKid]

The line that " Moody's is confused " is an understatement as so is everyone else. The PM has no idea what's going on, and not just about this issue, and describes all figures as unofficial plus two of her ministries are locked in disagreement.

Rating agencies are often attacked over the way they arrive at their findings but little wonder they and the World Bank are dubious about the cost of the scheme when all local officials can say is they don't actually have final figures yet but they know all outside agencies are wrong.

[GentlemanJim]

Finance Ministry officials can no longer sit still. Kittiratt, in particular, has been banking on economic success via relatively high gross domestic product growth and a stock market boom

Bangkok has always been a favourite place for the worlds scammers to set up sweat shops to con investors. It seems these are so successful that team Shiniwatra has caught on to the idea and the Government is running the biggest sweat shop of all. Foreign investors should really get their money out of Thailand now as a matter of urgency.

[frankold]

Perhaps the guys from moodys should be given complimentary elite cards and lunch boxes. It might quieten them down for a while. Pesky farangs, they just don't understand.

[IMA_FARANG]

Th

The Thai government so far has ploughed more than Bt600 billion into the policy of buying every single grain of rice from farmers at prices significantly higher than the market rate

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

[chiangmaikelly]

Th

The Thai government so far has ploughed more than Bt600 billion into the policy of buying every single grain of rice from farmers at prices significantly higher than the market rate

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

[barrybankruad]

True. I live in a rice producing area. I do not know of one farmer that has received the higher price proposed under the scheme. Not only the excuse of 'poor quality' but statements such as 'you will have to wait 6 months for payment' 'we are not in the scheme', these are what the farmers are being told when they try to sell their rice. Thy cannot afford to wait, most are heavily in debt and require money to pay off loans and prepare land for next years crop. If Thailand wasn't so riddled with corruption, the pledging scheme might have been a good idea, it would cost money for sure, but if properly administered the profits would have benefited the farmer, not the millers, middlemen, etcetera. I have not seen it personally but rumour has it the huge quantities of Cambodian rice are being smuggled into the Country and being sold via the scheme.

[OzMick]

Th

The Thai government so far has ploughed more than Bt600 billion into the policy of buying every single grain of rice from farmers at prices significantly higher than the market rate

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

Unless we could give you an exact figure, you wouldn't accept it anyway. Then we would have to go through a detailed analysis of how much is hidden under the mattress, how much has been deposited in banks, how many loan sharks have been repaid, how many cheques are in the mail and what value of rice is in transit.

[ppmacready]

We hope the UK government will get the pound to strengthen.

We relie on the Thai government with there policy's to weaken the Baht.

[chiangmaikelly]

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

Unless we could give you an exact figure, you wouldn't accept it anyway. Then we would have to go through a detailed analysis of how much is hidden under the mattress, how much has been deposited in banks, how many loan sharks have been repaid, how many cheques are in the mail and what value of rice is in transit.

A simple link to one article pointing out that the farmers are not getting the money and that the middlemen are would be sufficient.

[dcutman]

Th

The Thai government so far has ploughed more than Bt600 billion into the policy of buying every single grain of rice from farmers at prices significantly higher than the market rate

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

OMG! CMK

Its called GOOGLE. Or a simple search here on TV will get you the same INFO.

But to spare all the other members from your annoying calls for links. Here you go.

According to the TDRI, 63% of funds spent on the pledging programme went

to merchants and millers, with the rest going to farmers. Only 5% of

funds spent went to poor farmers, most of them in the Northeast. http://www.flar.org/index.php/en/news/3299-thailand-tdri-head-calls-for-rice-plan-review

Another good article for your pleasure, as you think this Govt is golden, and this scam is so great for everybody.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/international/Analysis_-_Disastrous_intervention_puts_Thai_rice_exporters_in_peril.html?cid=33271378

[SICHONSTEVE]

'even Yingluck didn't know the potential losses of the rice pledge scheme'

Why on earth should she - she's only Thailand's roving ambassador ranting on about how nasty and undemocratic those nasty err.........Democrats are at every possibility under orders from the master scam artist.

Do you think that she's ordered some new Moody's and Fitch tea-shirts? It's got a much nicer ring to it than that stupid Abercrombie thing, don't you think!!!.

[chiangmaikelly]

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

OMG! CMK

Its called GOOGLE. Or a simple search here on TV will get you the same INFO.

But to spare all the other members from your annoying calls for links. Here you go.

According to the TDRI, 63% of funds spent on the pledging programme went

to merchants and millers, with the rest going to farmers. Only 5% of

funds spent went to poor farmers, most of them in the Northeast. http://www.flar.org/index.php/en/news/3299-thailand-tdri-head-calls-for-rice-plan-review

Another good article for your pleasure, as you think this Govt is golden, and this scam is so great for everybody.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/international/Analysis_-_Disastrous_intervention_puts_Thai_rice_exporters_in_peril.html?cid=33271378

Can't comment on the first article because it's source is the Bangkok Post. The second author led me to Irrwaddy where I read an article titled, "Thai Rice Farmers Threaten Protest if Intervention Price Cut."

Why would the Thai farmers threaten protest if they are not getting the money?

From the article, "We have sent our letter to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra that we don’t agree to cut the intervention price,” said Vichien Phuanglamjiak, vice-president of the Thai Rice Farmers Association, which represents 700 to 800 farmers. The remarks came in response to comments last week by permanent commerce secretary Vatchari Vimooktayon, that the government was considering cutting the price it pays farmers to 13,000 baht from 15,000 baht (US $500) per tonne.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/28385

[winstonc]

Th

The Thai government so far has ploughed more than Bt600 billion into the policy of buying every single grain of rice from farmers at prices significantly higher than the market rate

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

do you have any figures to prove they are getting it, touche ,,,,,,, end of chat i believe,,

[chiangmaikelly]

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

do you have any figures to prove they are getting it, touche ,,,,,,, end of chat i believe,,

We have sent our letter to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra that we don’t agree to cut the intervention price,” said Vichien Phuanglamjiak, vice-president of the Thai Rice Farmers Association, which represents 700 to 800 farmers. “And if we don’t get an appropriate response, we will stage a protest and it would be a big one.”

Thai Rice Farmers Threaten Protest if Intervention Price Cut

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/28385

If the farmers are not getting the money why would they protest?

[LuckyLew]

Thai people and those who invest in Thailand will soon enough get what they deserve

Despite any and all warnings it is still business as usual here

[monty1412]

True. I live in a rice producing area. I do not know of one farmer that has received the higher price proposed under the scheme. Not only the excuse of 'poor quality' but statements such as 'you will have to wait 6 months for payment' 'we are not in the scheme', these are what the farmers are being told when they try to sell their rice. Thy cannot afford to wait, most are heavily in debt and require money to pay off loans and prepare land for next years crop. If Thailand wasn't so riddled with corruption, the pledging scheme might have been a good idea, it would cost money for sure, but if properly administered the profits would have benefited the farmer, not the millers, middlemen, etcetera. I have not seen it personally but rumour has it the huge quantities of Cambodian rice are being smuggled into the Country and being sold via the scheme.

Not sure how you can state the the rice scheme might if properly administered been a good thing.... yes I can see that from framers perspective but anything that artificially raises the price versus world prices and thus makes Thailand uncompetitive will result in the enormous stock plies you see now which ultimately will hurt the farmer..... so short term maybe the framer benefits but long term both the farmer and Thailand alike suffer.... not too mention the huge loss of global market share that this pledging scheme results in.

[ratcatcher]

The poor farmer is getting it alright, right up the drainage canal.

[OzMick]

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

do you have any figures to prove they are getting it, touche ,,,,,,, end of chat i believe,,

We have sent our letter to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra that we don’t agree to cut the intervention price,” said Vichien Phuanglamjiak, vice-president of the Thai Rice Farmers Association, which represents 700 to 800 farmers. “And if we don’t get an appropriate response, we will stage a protest and it would be a big one.”

Thai Rice Farmers Threaten Protest if Intervention Price Cut

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/28385

If the farmers are not getting the money why would they protest?

The policy was specifically aimed at raising the income of POOR rice farmers. Do you have any proof that the 700-800 members of the TRFA are not wealthy land owners? As a % of the supposed million rice farmers, it is pretty small, wouldn't you agree?

[chiangmaikelly]

The poor farmer is getting it alright, right up the drainage canal.

The rate of rural poverty has gone from 27% in 2008 to 17% in 2011. I think the farmers are happy.

[chiangmaikelly]

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

do you have any figures to prove they are getting it, touche ,,,,,,, end of chat i believe,,

We have sent our letter to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra that we don’t agree to cut the intervention price,” said Vichien Phuanglamjiak, vice-president of the Thai Rice Farmers Association, which represents 700 to 800 farmers. “And if we don’t get an appropriate response, we will stage a protest and it would be a big one.”

Thai Rice Farmers Threaten Protest if Intervention Price Cut

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/28385

If the farmers are not getting the money why would they protest?

The policy was specifically aimed at raising the income of POOR rice farmers. Do you have any proof that the 700-800 members of the TRFA are not wealthy land owners? As a % of the supposed million rice farmers, it is pretty small, wouldn't you agree?

700 or 800 people as opposed to 0 people. Seems like a lot.

[thaicbr]

 

 

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

 

 

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which  the MIDDLEMEN  then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it.  The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa.  Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money. 

do you have any figures to prove they are getting it, touche ,,,,,,, end of chat i believe,,

We have sent our letter to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra that we don’t agree to cut the intervention price,” said Vichien Phuanglamjiak, vice-president of the Thai Rice Farmers Association, which represents 700 to 800 farmers. “And if we don’t get an appropriate response, we will stage a protest and it would be a big one.” Thai Rice Farmers Threaten Protest if Intervention Price Cut

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/28385

 

If the farmers are not getting the money why would they protest? 

The policy was specifically aimed at raising the income of POOR rice farmers. Do you have any proof that the 700-800 members of the TRFA are not wealthy land owners? As a % of the supposed million rice farmers, it is pretty small, wouldn't you agree?

The only farmers that are allowed to pledge are land owning farmers. Many farmers rent the land that they grow the crops on. The landowners file the paperwork the farmers do the work and make a little more money that usual about 500-1000b per tonne the landowner keeps the rest.

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

[OzMick]

do you have any figures to prove they are getting it, touche ,,,,,,, end of chat i believe,,

We have sent our letter to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra that we don’t agree to cut the intervention price,” said Vichien Phuanglamjiak, vice-president of the Thai Rice Farmers Association, which represents 700 to 800 farmers. “And if we don’t get an appropriate response, we will stage a protest and it would be a big one.”

Thai Rice Farmers Threaten Protest if Intervention Price Cut

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/28385

If the farmers are not getting the money why would they protest?

The policy was specifically aimed at raising the income of POOR rice farmers. Do you have any proof that the 700-800 members of the TRFA are not wealthy land owners? As a % of the supposed million rice farmers, it is pretty small, wouldn't you agree?

700 or 800 people as opposed to 0 people. Seems like a lot.

Your policy of not answering questions continues. 800 of a million is 0.08%, and not that far off 0 by my accounting, but the relevance of that escapes me.

[chiangmaikelly]

We have sent our letter to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra that we don’t agree to cut the intervention price,” said Vichien Phuanglamjiak, vice-president of the Thai Rice Farmers Association, which represents 700 to 800 farmers. “And if we don’t get an appropriate response, we will stage a protest and it would be a big one.”

Thai Rice Farmers Threaten Protest if Intervention Price Cut

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/28385

If the farmers are not getting the money why would they protest?

The policy was specifically aimed at raising the income of POOR rice farmers. Do you have any proof that the 700-800 members of the TRFA are not wealthy land owners? As a % of the supposed million rice farmers, it is pretty small, wouldn't you agree?

700 or 800 people as opposed to 0 people. Seems like a lot.

Your policy of not answering questions continues. 800 of a million is 0.08%, and not that far off 0 by my accounting, but the relevance of that escapes me.

Number of middlemen presented by OzMick as gaining money from the rice scheme = 0 Number of farmers presented by CMK as receiving money from the rice scheme = 800.

Edited June 7, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[winstonc]

True. I live in a rice producing area. I do not know of one farmer that has received the higher price proposed under the scheme. Not only the excuse of 'poor quality' but statements such as 'you will have to wait 6 months for payment' 'we are not in the scheme', these are what the farmers are being told when they try to sell their rice. Thy cannot afford to wait, most are heavily in debt and require money to pay off loans and prepare land for next years crop. If Thailand wasn't so riddled with corruption, the pledging scheme might have been a good idea, it would cost money for sure, but if properly administered the profits would have benefited the farmer, not the millers, middlemen, etcetera. I have not seen it personally but rumour has it the huge quantities of Cambodian rice are being smuggled into the Country and being sold via the scheme.

Not sure how you can state the the rice scheme might if properly administered been a good thing.... yes I can see that from framers perspective but anything that artificially raises the price versus world prices and thus makes Thailand uncompetitive will result in the enormous stock plies you see now which ultimately will hurt the farmer..... so short term maybe the framer benefits but long term both the farmer and Thailand alike suffer.... not too mention the huge loss of global market share that this pledging scheme results in.

i think the rice scheme was really introduced to BUY the farming vote nothing more,its not like they only just started growing it ,,,

[OzMick]

The policy was specifically aimed at raising the income of POOR rice farmers. Do you have any proof that the 700-800 members of the TRFA are not wealthy land owners? As a % of the supposed million rice farmers, it is pretty small, wouldn't you agree?

700 or 800 people as opposed to 0 people. Seems like a lot.

Your policy of not answering questions continues. 800 of a million is 0.08%, and not that far off 0 by my accounting, but the relevance of that escapes me.

Number of middlemen presented by OzMick as gaining money from the rice scheme = 0 Number of farmers presented by CMK as receiving money from the rice scheme = 800.

You were given a link that during Thaksin's government 63% of the rice scam expenditure went to middlemen. That does NOT represent 0.

If 260 billion baht has been lost on this scam currently, and there are a million rice farmers, on average they have received B260,000 - if none went to middlemen. If you have any evidence of a figure anywhere near this being paid to a farmer, I would love to see it.

[waza]

Th

The Thai government so far has ploughed more than Bt600 billion into the policy of buying every single grain of rice from farmers at prices significantly higher than the market rate

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

Don't forget that the majority of rice farm owners are not poor and a goodly percentage are not Thai but front companies for Foreign investors, some of whom were personally brought to Thailand by Thaksin to inspect the rice paddys.

Angry Farmers, Unsold Rice: Thai Intervention Near Crisis? www.cnbc.com/id/100598755

There is already unhappiness with the scheme, with farmers complaining of delayed payments and manipulation by millers on quality standards that yields

lower payments to farmers. http://www.businessworld.ie/bworld/livenews.htm?a=3058819

A trial donation last last month of 40 tonnes as humanitarian aid to poor villagers in Phitsanulok province, which a commerce ministry official said would

be followed by a few millions of tonnes more, drew complaints it had been stored too long........."I don't know why the government gave it to us as no one can eat this rice," said Chaew Malila, http://www.trust.org/item/20130513133928-qs0rf

Abhisit’s Democrat party has received complaints from farmers who say some millers refuse to pay the guaranteed price because of high moisture content or other impurities, he said. Farmers are forced to accept lower rates because they can’t afford to pay additional transport costs to take the grain to a competing miller, he said. “If they spend the money and it reaches the poor people, I don’t mind,” Kiat said of the government’s rice policy. “But that’s not what’s happening here. All the budget spent is not reaching the farmers.” http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-22/thai-rice-haul-seen-winning-votes-as-sales-drop

For small-scale rice farmers like Nee Mankhao on Soi Mabyailieb, the real problem is the “middleman,” the rice mills who she and other poor farmers around

the country complain are swindling “the little guy.” The government promises farmers 15,000 baht per ton, but few sellers actually get that, as millers

pocket the difference and kick back some of that to government officials and politicians...http://www.pattayamail.com/localnews/pattaya-area-farmers-ok-with-chaos-in-thai-rice-market-17555

Ammar Siamwalla, honorary economist at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), said the rice pledging scheme was "pro-rich and anti-poor", with high pledging prices raising the cost of living for the entire public............ According to the TDRI, 63% of the funds spent on the pledging programme went to merchants and millers, with the rest going to farmers. Only 5% of funds spent went to poor farmers. http://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/Int%20news/News_2012/int_news_080812-1.html

Many poor farmers said the fact that they have to rent plantation areas from landowners and other rich people had paved the way for those people, as well as foreign investors who have purchased Thai farmland, to hire them to grow rice on their land and reap the benefits from the government’s high-subsidy price policy.

Firstly, this new agency is being created as a result of recent complains by Thai farmers that foreign investors hold major stakes in businesses planting rice which is a protected activity under the Foreign Business Act.

However, this is irrelevant, all Thais will be stuck with the potential 600 billion baht bill for this corrupt scam.

Edited June 7, 2013 by waza

[chiangmaikelly]

Once again this deliberate mis-speak is trotted out by the newspapers as a "fact" which originated with the current government.

The FARMERS are NOT getting the high prices.

It is the MIDDLEMEN who are being paid high prices for the rice they are buying at lower prices, often on phoney excuses (sorry but your rice is not the highest quality Mr. rice farmer, we can't pay you the official price for that rice), which the MIDDLEMEN then resell to the government as prime quality high-grade rice at the official rice.

And why is this being done .... or more importantly allowed ..... by the government?

Because the people buying the rice and re-selling it to the government are supporters of the government, and the government is buying their support with tax revenue buying the middleman's rice at inflated prices.

Tax fraud is illegal, a illegality is a sin ....... therefore could you not call an illegality done with tax revenues a

Tax Sin.

I think the farmers are gettng the money, perhaps a bit late but getting it. The only place I have read that they are not getting the money is on Thai Visa. Do you have any links to news stories that the farmers are not getting the money.

Don't forget that the majority of rice farm owners are not poor and a goodly percentage are not Thai but front companies for Foreign investors, some of whom were personally brought to Thailand by Thaksin to inspect the rice paddys.

Angry Farmers, Unsold Rice: Thai Intervention Near Crisis? www.cnbc.com/id/100598755

You are providing links that I can't discuss because the source is the Bangkok post.

But this one, "http://www.cnbc.com/id/100598755" Pretty much proves that the farmers are getting the money.

From your link,

I've had to wait for two months," said Prasert Chamsopa, 66, a farmer in the rice-growing province of Suphan Buri who had sold 35 tons of paddy to the government.

In early March, a senior official at Thailand's Commerce Ministry tested the water by suggesting the government could stop paying the high price for rice. The reaction in the countryside was immediate and angry: the Thai Farmers Association threatened to bring thousands of farmers to Bangkok to protest against the move.

The Commerce Ministry official said the government might also consider stopping buying 18 varieties of fast-growing rice of lower quality, which farmers have used to squeeze in more crops to cash in on the intervention scheme.