Remnants of war

[cpofc]

Points taken and understood cpofc. Thank you for the guidance. it may be overdramatising and impertinent, but I can't help feeling a little bit like Sir Winston might have felt in the 1930s.

Very happy to be proven entirely wrong in the long run.

20th Century warfare is my pet subject, since my first living memory actually, particulary WW2, but since I retired I have been putting in a lot of time studying them all. recently I have been getting into the history of the Boer War - England's Vietnam.

I spent a lot of my life (the first half of it) at Sea (in company with USN Battle Groups too!), which gave me a lot of time to read everything I could get my hands on, since then I have amassed an amazing collection of 100s of video documentaries since the invention of the VCR. Now I have them all on hard drive.

The only thing I regret about relocating to Thailand is that I had to leave my vast personal library at home in Aust.

[cpofc]

Earlier I said.......

Unlike the Chinese, who had the opportunity to learn and take advantage of the technological advances offered by the British during the Industrial Revolution, but arrogantly dismissed it, the Japanese saw the steel hulled fire breathing ships of the US navy and decided they wanted a bit of that.

Forgive me if I rush through vast swathes of history here............please also forgive me if I use a very broad brush.

A primary fault in the Chinese psyche is the actual name of the country........China, which means the " Middle Kingdom ".

The Chinese genuinely believed ( still do in many cases ) that their country is the centre of the World. This attitude engendered another level of arrogance from the Imperial rulers of that country that set off a chain reaction which is still reverberating to this day.

In the late 1790's King George sent an emissary to China to discuss trade issues. At that time China was exporting vast amounts of fine arts, porcelains, silks and the like to Europe and the UK. The balance of payments between Europe and China was way out of kilter, so the simple question to be asked of the Chinese was, would you like to buy some stuff from us?

The emissary was denied an audience with the Emperor for two years as he battled through ridiculous protocol demands and resistance from the Royal Court. When he was eventually granted the audience The Emperor contemptuously dismissed him out of hand with the words " you have nothing we need ".

This caused a furious reaction within the British court and government, and put China down as a non cooperative power. The Brits had no intention of mounting any kind of military operation against China, that was never on the cards, they just wanted to trade.

There are two things at play here, one that the British members are likely not aware of. That being that at the time of this meeting Britain was in a state of daily dread about the situation in France, the Revolution had caused shock waves throughout Europe and the idea of the Revolution spreading to the UK caused widespread alarm, and there was a realization that Britain was unprepared for war with Revolutionary France. Combat in a far away place was far from British minds, the Homeland was under threat again.

However if you had ever to prepare a list of the " Worst decisions in history ", the decision by China to dismiss Britain would come very close to the list. History shows that the Industrial Revolution changed the World, and instead of China getting access to all of these innovations on friendly terms, instead of using their vast wealth to invest in the infrastructure of the country, they were left behind.

The Brits were determined to open the Chinese market, and they hit the jackpot when they started to export Opium into the country. The British were in effect the biggest drug dealers in World history, and a vast amount of the GDP of the UK came from selling drugs to China. The Chinese Emperor ( another one ) wasn't very content at this trade and banned it. Hence the Opium Wars, as the Brits were still irritated at the Chinese arrogance, and they were taking too much money out of the country to allow the Emperors edict to stand.

The Opium Wars were a catastrophe for the Chinese psyche, here a foreign power had wandered in and humiliated them, and they didn't have the weaponry to repel the " invaders ".

Instead of being a proud and independent modern country, they were being picked apart by Britain and the rest of the Western powers, including the US, who were helping themselves to the riches of the country. So the word is............

Humiliation.

We've discussed here already that the attack by the US on Japan in 1855 started an Imperial ball rolling in that country, China for years had been the dominant power in the East, and now they were effectively in the position of being a servant state. The Chinese watched as the Western powers chipped away at their nation, Hong Kong was ceded to the British, the Russians had their eye on Manchuria, the Japanese had their eye on becoming the dominant Imperial power in the East, and the Chinese could do nothing about it.

Humiliating.

Especially as Japan had always been subservient to China.

The eventual invasion of the Chinese mainland, The Rape of Nanking ...... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanking_Massacre and many other deprivations caused a deep seated hatred of all things foreign. That deep seated hatred is still prevalent today. You would be astounded at the level of visceral hatred of the West prevalent in the Chinese education system.

This mindset came to play all because the Emperor wouldn't trade. History would have been far different otherwise. The question asked though was what effect does it have today.

Right, China watched the USSR bankrupt itself in an arms race with the US. They realized that geographically and socio-economically, entering into an arms race with the West would be a waste of time and resources. So here's what the Chinese policy is now,

They will own the West, the Chinese central bank ( s ) are now rolling throughout the World buying up government debt, we are all aware that the US is deeply indebted to China. That situation is only likely to get worse. To make it even worse for the West, the balance of payments situation has returned. These figures are already skewed as China is a vast importer of commodities, which are then turned round and re-exported as manufactured goods. ( again, broadly ).

Chinese domestic consumption is low, the savings level is high, hence giving the banks access to even more cash to buy Western debt. Even though there is a demand for high end Western manufactured goods it's like snowfall on a summers day. The Chinese are already attempting to create their own luxury brands, and that which the can't create, they will copy.

I have sat in the company of a shareholder in a major component manufacturer that supplies HTC who told me that they couldn't care less about copyright issues. By the time they go through the convoluted court process they will already have a market share. He thinks we in the West are clowns for getting upset about it, he thinks it's a great business model The West innovates, China steals.

Oh, and they don't mind banning Western companies such as Google and Facebook. They create carbon copies, dominate the home market, look to expand and cheekily, list on the New York stock exchange where Western investors pour money into ant-competitive black holes. The Chinese think it's hysterical. Their protectionist policies have worked well for them, It's recently been announced that Ali Baba is now the largest e-commerce platform in the World, bigger than eBay and Amazon. You ever heard of Ali Baba? You will soon, it will be all over the West like a rash, promoting Chinese products.

China is determined to return to it's previous pre-eminent position of being the centre of the World, they are determined to avenge two centuries of humiliation, and their weapon of choice is financial warfare.

That's the true cost of Chinese goods, and within a few of years China will be the Worlds biggest economy, a few years after that it will dwarf the US economy, then we will become the servant states. Go back and watch the last minute of the David Starkey clip I posted earlier when he says it's already absurd to think that the West can pressure China.

This dominant role may be benign but I doubt it, they will most likely assert all of their territorial claims. You'll know it's all over when Taiwan cheerfully ( through gritted teeth ) announces that it's going back into Confederation with China. I give that about 30 years.

This new China will have a massive affect on Thailand, you will see a new surge of Chinese investment and domination of the local economy. You would need to be blind to not see it happening already.

The Chinese won't stop until they have avenged their humiliation. The only real "hope" for the West would be for India to get off it's knees and counter China. That country is so corrupt though that it's not likely to happen.

All this because an arrogant man dismissed the idea of free trade two centuries ago. History is compelling.

from the forward of John Gordon Davis' book "The Years Of The Hungry Tiger"

http://www.gunplot.net/main/content/boxer-rebellion-china-1900-01

Sums it up fairly well.

One movie I refuse to keep in my collection is '55 Days At Peking' - what a load of rubbish!

[boosta]

In the late 1790's King George sent an emissary to China to discuss trade issues. At that time China was exporting vast amounts of fine arts, porcelains, silks and the like to Europe and the UK. The balance of payments between Europe and China was way out of kilter, so the simple question to be asked of the Chinese was, would you like to buy some stuff from us?

Curious about the imbalance of trade thing as a pretext for the opium trade.

I can't imagine the British trading companies were able to pay for their Chinese goods with paper instruments, they must have been trading things of real value for them?

The Brits were determined to open the Chinese market, and they hit the jackpot when they started to export Opium into the country. The British were in effect the biggest drug dealers in World history, and a vast amount of the GDP of the UK came from selling drugs to China.

And the historical ties through their intelligence agencies and banking/financial networks from that time are still in place in Singapore and Hong Kong, lots of ethnic-Chinese wealth in this part of the world came/comes from money laundering of the drug trade.

The US TLAs using drug-running to finance their illegal activities tie into the same networks, still opium/heroin this part of the world, cocaine/crack in South America same old same old imperialist techniques.

They will own the West, the Chinese central bank ( s ) are now rolling throughout the World buying up government debt, we are all aware that the US is deeply indebted to China.

They've also been buying up gold - physical metal, not the scam-paper stuff, not to mention being a top primary producer of the stuff themselves. Only recently have our own central banks started doing the same, playing catch-up after they'd tried to convince the world it's irrelevant to a sound currency.

The Chinese and Indians were very happy when the Fed caused the escalating paper-gold price to crash recently, still physical shortages at the lower prices this part of the world reflected in higher premiums between the London theoretical spot price and actual prices for the physical metal in retail quantities. Link and another

They won't even need to take any direct action to trigger a disaster either, all they have to do is to stop buying our debt, if the Fed has to pick up the slack by printing ever more fake/fiat notes that will accelerate a collapse in western currencies and financial markets.

If/when the house of cards propping up the USD finally comes crashing down, mostly likely the pound and Euro at the same time, the Chinese will be in a very good position to pick up the pieces.

" you have nothing we need "

I think this statement is much more true today than it ever was, most of the drivers of western economies now are purely artificial ponzi scheme stuff, if (when) the world economy scales back to only producing things people actually need, we're in big trouble.

Edited June 22, 2013 by boosta

[theblether]

Points taken and understood cpofc. Thank you for the guidance. it may be overdramatising and impertinent, but I can't help feeling a little bit like Sir Winston might have felt in the 1930s.

Very happy to be proven entirely wrong in the long run.

20th Century warfare is my pet subject, since my first living memory actually, particulary WW2, but since I retired I have been putting in a lot of time studying them all. recently I have been getting into the history of the Boer War - England's Vietnam.

I spent a lot of my life (the first half of it) at Sea (in company with USN Battle Groups too!), which gave me a lot of time to read everything I could get my hands on, since then I have amassed an amazing collection of 100s of video documentaries since the invention of the VCR. Now I have them all on hard drive.

The only thing I regret about relocating to Thailand is that I had to leave my vast personal library at home in Aust.

Tsk tsk cpofc, England hasn't been an entity capable of declaring war since 1707, England is merely an administrative area within the United Kingdom.

Don't tell the English that though, it drives them mad.

@Boosta, the disagreement was all about the imbalance in trade, the currency exported to China was silver.

@Simple1, I've been studying this issue recently, I was discussing it last night with a Scottish author and political activist that's flown to CM to visit me. Give me a few minutes and I'll respond.

Edited June 22, 2013 by theblether

[SinglePot]

TB

I have tried to send you a PM. System says you can't receive. Anyway round it?

I want to share some information with you.

Regards

SP

[SinglePot]

Points taken and understood cpofc. Thank you for the guidance. it may be overdramatising and impertinent, but I can't help feeling a little bit like Sir Winston might have felt in the 1930s.

Very happy to be proven entirely wrong in the long run.

20th Century warfare is my pet subject, since my first living memory actually, particulary WW2, but since I retired I have been putting in a lot of time studying them all. recently I have been getting into the history of the Boer War - England's Vietnam.

I spent a lot of my life (the first half of it) at Sea (in company with USN Battle Groups too!), which gave me a lot of time to read everything I could get my hands on, since then I have amassed an amazing collection of 100s of video documentaries since the invention of the VCR. Now I have them all on hard drive.

The only thing I regret about relocating to Thailand is that I had to leave my vast personal library at home in Aust.

Fascinating. Thanks again for steerage.

[theblether]

TB

I have tried to send you a PM. System says you can't receive. Anyway round it?

I want to share some information with you.

Regards

SP

Go ahead and send it now SP.

Edited June 22, 2013 by theblether

[PattayaPhom]

I thought the US had a King till the war of independence. Correct me if I am wrong

[SinglePot]

TB

I have tried to send you a PM. System says you can't receive. Anyway round it?

I want to share some information with you.

Regards

SP

Go ahead and send it now SP.

Sent now.

[theblether]

@simple1, that's an excellent report and in my opinion describes exactly what I think is happening, ( get me eh? ). There's some issues within it that I'd like to address but it's going to take me ages, so I'll do it tomorrow if you don't mind.

I'm going out to watch the British Lions hammer the Australians at rugby, see you later.

[I Like Thai]

In the late 1790's King George sent an emissary to China to discuss trade issues. At that time China was exporting vast amounts of fine arts, porcelains, silks and the like to Europe and the UK. The balance of payments between Europe and China was way out of kilter, so the simple question to be asked of the Chinese was, would you like to buy some stuff from us?

The emissary was denied an audience with the Emperor for two years as he battled through ridiculous protocol demands and resistance from the Royal Court. When he was eventually granted the audience The Emperor contemptuously dismissed him out of hand with the words " you have nothing we need ".

This caused a furious reaction within the British court and government, and put China down as a non cooperative power. The Brits had no intention of mounting any kind of military operation against China, that was never on the cards, they just wanted to trade.

The Brits were determined to open the Chinese market, and they hit the jackpot when they started to export Opium into the country.

All this because an arrogant man dismissed the idea of free trade two centuries ago. History is compelling.

Very good topic and article The Blether, but maybe your simplistic view on China's refusal to trade with England (East India trading company) has more to it than just the arrogance of an Emperor. The opium trade had started well before the trade delegation came to China in the late 1790's

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars

Following the Battle of Plassey in 1757, in which Britain annexed Bengal to its empire, the British East India Company pursued a monopoly on production and export of Indian opium. The monopoly began in earnest in 1773, as the British Governor-General of Bengal abolished the opium syndicate at Patna. For the next fifty years opium trade would be the key to the East India Company's hold on the subcontinent.

Considering that importation of opium into China had been virtually banned by Chinese law, the East India Company established an elaborate trading scheme partially relying on legal markets, and partially leveraging illicit ones. British merchants carrying no opium would buy tea in Canton on credit, and would balance their debts by selling opium at auction in Calcutta. From there, the opium would reach the Chinese coast hidden aboard British ships then smuggled into China by native merchants. In 1797 the company further tightened its grip on the opium trade by enforcing direct trade between opium farmers and the British, and ending the role of Bengali purchasing agents. British exports of opium to China grew from an estimated 15 tons in 1730 to 75 tons in 1773. The product was shipped in over two thousand chests, each containing 140 pounds (64 kg) of opium.^[21]

Meanwhile, negotiations with the Qianlong Emperor to ease the trading ban carried on, coming to a head in 1793 under Earl George Macartney. Such discussions were unsuccessful.^[22]

In 1799, the Qing Empire reinstated their ban on opium imports. The Empire issued the following decree in 1810:

Opium has a harm. Opium is a poison, undermining our good customs and morality. Its use is prohibited by law. Now the commoner, Yang, dares to bring it into theForbidden City. Indeed, he flouts the law! However, recently the purchasers, eaters, and consumers of opium have become numerous. Deceitful merchants buy and sell it to gain profit. The customs house at the Ch'ung-wen Gate was originally set up to supervise the collection of imports (it had no responsibility with regard to opium smuggling). If we confine our search for opium to the seaports, we fear the search will not be sufficiently thorough. We should also order the general commandant of the police and police- censors at the five gates to prohibit opium and to search for it at all gates. If they capture any violators, they should immediately punish them and should destroy the opium at once. As to Kwangtung and Fukien, the provinces from which opium comes, we order their viceroys, governors, and superintendents of the maritime customs to conduct a thorough search for opium, and cut off its supply. They should in no ways consider this order a dead letter and allow opium to be smuggled out!^[23]

The decree had little effect. The Qing government, seated in Beijing in the north of China, was unable to halt opium smuggling in the southern provinces. A porous Chinese border and rampant local demand only encouraged the all-too eager East India Company, which had its monopoly on opium trade recognised by the British government, which itself wanted silver. By the 1820s China was importing 900 tons of Bengali opium annually.

Edited June 22, 2013 by I Like Thai

[SinglePot]

Maybe that's the problem. Opium withdrawal.

A more relaxed China might be a good thing possibly.

[I Like Thai]

@simple1, that's an excellent report and in my opinion describes exactly what I think is happening, ( get me eh? ). There's some issues within it that I'd like to address but it's going to take me ages, so I'll do it tomorrow if you don't mind.

I'm going out to watch the British Lions hammer the Australians at rugby, see you later.

Considering there are no Scottish players, it might be more apt to call them the Welsh, English and Irish lions.

British and Irish Lions team

Leigh Halfpenny (Wales); Alex Cuthbert (Wales), Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland), Jonathan Davies (Wales), George North (Wales); Jonny Sexton (Ireland), Mike Phillips (Wales); Alex Corbisiero (England), Tom Youngs (England), Adam Jones (Wales), Alun-Wyn Jones (Wales), Paul O'Connell (Ireland), Tom Croft (England), Sam Warburton (Wales, capt), Jamie Heaslip (Ireland).

Replacements: Richard Hibbard (Wales), Mako Vunipola (England), Dan Cole (England), Geoff Parling (England), Dan Lydiate (Wales), Ben Youngs (England), Owen Farrell (England), Sean Maitland (Ireland).

[metisdead]

I think this is getting off topic, Middle East references have been removed.

General topics is for general interest topics related to Thailand only. China's refusal to trade with England is not related to Thailand nor is the discussion of British and Australians in rugby.

Quote

England hasn't been an entity capable of declaring war since 1707, England is merely an administrative area within the United Kingdom

Is certainly not Thailand related.

Topic is now closed.