Are bubbles beginning to burst?

[daiwill60]

Mmm, Could not help read this on the Beeb website and wonder what would happen if Asia's biggest economy was to go Tits Up, what would happen to the rest of it's associates??

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23026947

China stocks crumble on credit Tightening fears?????

[infinity11]

I have few doubts we have already witnessed the beginnings and i don't even follow very closely.

The usa markets topped off, japan already way off, gold and silver tumbling hard, credit bubbles, endless printing of money, bond bubble bursting, syria, if doesn't end up really bad i would be surprised and i hope i am surprised.

[MrRealDeal]

No because it's not really a bubble.

What you are seeing is a long awaited correction that statistically should move down 6 percent more however since everyone knows that it may very well be over by Wednesday

I bought Japan Market calls out to 2015 today and am waiting for my next order to fill but no one wants to let me buy it at my price because i'm a cheap Charlie in the market right now !

Edited June 24, 2013 by MrRealDeal

[crazygreg44]

If I was to know the outcome, I would be millionaire next to my stock investments.

All i can see , it's sign showing to get out of China's inventory . . they are loosing credibility.

[NeverSure]

Mmm, Could not help read this on the Beeb website and wonder what would happen if Asia's biggest economy was to go Tits Up, what would happen to the rest of it's associates??

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-23026947

China stocks crumble on credit Tightening fears?????

China is in for a hard landing. It's unbelievable debt, corruption and shadow banking system are going to bring it down. It has lost 15% of its heavy manufacturing jobs, and its claim to growth is based only on its crazy real estate building of those huge ghost cities. Link It will take other, smaller SE Asian economies with it.

[lovetotravel]

Mmm, Could not help read this on the Beeb website and wonder what would happen if Asia's biggest economy was to go Tits Up, what would happen to the rest of it's associates??

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-23026947

China stocks crumble on credit Tightening fears?????

China is in for a hard landing. It's unbelievable debt, corruption and shadow banking system are going to bring it down. It has lost 15% of its heavy manufacturing jobs, and its claim to growth is based only on its crazy real estate building of those huge ghost cities. Link It will take other, smaller SE Asian economies with it.

Isn't Australia's woes tied to the slowing Chinese economy? Perhaps even Brazil?

[MrRealDeal]

Mmm, Could not help read this on the Beeb website and wonder what would happen if Asia's biggest economy was to go Tits Up, what would happen to the rest of it's associates??

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-23026947

China stocks crumble on credit Tightening fears?????

China is in for a hard landing. It's unbelievable debt, corruption and shadow banking system are going to bring it down. It has lost 15% of its heavy manufacturing jobs, and its claim to growth is based only on its crazy real estate building of those huge ghost cities. Link It will take other, smaller SE Asian economies with it.

Isn't Australia's woes tied to the slowing Chinese economy? Perhaps even Brazil?

They could use that as an excuse I suppose ..... I prefer to live by the saying that my success doesn't depend on another's failure and another's failure is not an excuse for my lack of success.

[MrWorldwide]

I have few doubts we have already witnessed the beginnings and i don't even follow very closely.

The usa markets topped off, japan already way off, gold and silver tumbling hard, credit bubbles, endless printing of money, bond bubble bursting, syria, if doesn't end up really bad i would be surprised and i hope i am surprised.

Right, so having admitted that you are basically clueless, you are prepared to go along with the sheep who get their rocks off predicting the end of the world ? How about we get on with our lives and leave the dire predictions to the likes of Donald Trump. China's demise as an economic superpower has been predicted for years - by many of the same people who initially predicted that they would never *be* an economic superpower. Go figure.

[Loptr]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

[Scottythai]

Hmm a wise old oil guy once told me Myanmar would be a sound investment a few years back. With the way the world is going and the state of most places + New government looks like he was indeed very correct.

[NeverSure]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

[MrRealDeal]

Well MrWorldwide I am disappointed only because I am was hoping for 100 percent agreement that the world and markets will end soon ! ..... My final order for 2015 above the money calls on the Japan index filled before close and I will expect a 14 percent profit in the morning when I wake up not doom and gloom ! EWJ Jan 17 2105 11 Call .... bought for 1.12 avg price ...... sell order for 1.27 market open in case I feel like sleeping in , otherwise it's 1.34 ! lol

Don't blame people for expecting the worst ..... after all if the end is coming isn't that the perfect reason to not bother accomplishing anything ?

Yeah I know before someone tells me ..... You expect the end of the world to come soon but are really accomplishing a lot and how could I possible assume that people who think the end of the world is coming are not especially productive or happy .... because it's true that's why.

[Loptr]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

I agree with you in principle, although I believe that reality is going to be much different in the US unless the current political travails do not pass with this administration. If sanity does not prevail, I fear devolution throughout the US. We are already seeing the start of this in Detroit, Chicago, LA, Oakland and surrounding areas. Should the left retain control in 2016, the tipping point will have past and the downward spiral will only accelerate. When those that vote for a living outnumber those that work for a living, the game is over.

Edited June 24, 2013 by Loptr

[canman]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

"The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined."

That's a new one to me. I'd be interested to see the source of this fact. Is it based on proven reserves?

[kikoman]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

I agree with you in principle, although I believe that reality is going to be much different in the US unless the current political travails do not pass with this administration. If sanity does not prevail, I fear devolution throughout the US. We are already seeing the start of this in Detroit, Chicago, LA, Oakland and surrounding areas. Should the left retain control in 2016, the tipping point will have past and the downward spiral will only accelerate. When those that vote for a living outnumber those that work for a living, the game is over.

This poster is not well informed about the current state of US politics, and which party is responsible for the current economic problems in the US.

The current problems began with Reagan with his "No new taxes" continued with Bush Sr. and on to Bush Jr. they did not raise taxes but they also failed to cut spending and the growth of the US debt came about with the Right-wing control of US politics. These presidents involved America in 3 pro-long land wars, and borrowing 3 Trillion dollars from China to pay for these wars.

The US could not fight 20 years of wars and spending on the greatest military in the world to act as the policeman of the world, without raising its revenue to cover that increased spending.

The US needs to concentrate on its own problems and let the world handle theirs:

Cheers:

[Naam]

Hmm a wise old oil guy once told me Myanmar would be a sound investment a few years back. With the way the world is going and the state of most places + New government looks like he was indeed very correct.

a correct forecast for those who believe in rebirth. what are presently, or for years to come, the possibilities of a private investor to invest in Myanmar?

[yoshiwara]

All the guys predicting the end of the world and apocalyptic headlines are trying to flog you gold. Trailing dogsh*t all over their shoes.

[MrRealDeal]

The problem with the end of the world is the end of the beginning of the end always comes before the actual end, postponing it once again for the next decade !

[lovetotravel]

I agree with you in principle, although I believe that reality is going to be much different in the US unless the current political travails do not pass with this administration. If sanity does not prevail, I fear devolution throughout the US. We are already seeing the start of this in Detroit, Chicago, LA, Oakland and surrounding areas. Should the left retain control in 2016, the tipping point will have past and the downward spiral will only accelerate. When those that vote for a living outnumber those that work for a living, the game is over.

Considering how the US has come back from the greatest recession since "the big one", I think they'll be OK. The cities you mention all have had problems before and got through them. My family is from Detroit. You think it's bad now, you should have been there in the 60's and 70's. Detroit had a corrupt mayor which has caused many of their current problems. Car makers are doing great and the city is being revitalized.

Everybody was proclaiming the demise of California with it's huge debt. Guess what? They're now trying to figure out what to do with a huge surplus:

http://www.businessinsider.com/california-confronts-budget-surplus-2013-5

[NeverSure]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

"The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined."

That's a new one to me. I'd be interested to see the source of this fact. Is it based on proven reserves?

The General Accounting office is a non-partisan branch of the US government which reports to congress.

The US probably has more like three times as much oil as all of the rest of the world combined. This is just reporting on one spot that has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

Link

Link

Energy Independence

[MrRealDeal]

Honestly their is no point in even trying to convince an end of the world person of anything except the one thing they will ALWAYS believe ....... it will be worse than today sooner than everyone thinks and much worse than last time ..... ooops that's 2 things

[canman]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

"The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined."

That's a new one to me. I'd be interested to see the source of this fact. Is it based on proven reserves?

The General Accounting office is a non-partisan branch of the US government which reports to congress.

The US probably has more like three times as much oil as all of the rest of the world combined. This is just reporting on one spot that has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

Link

Link

Energy Independence

I hadn't realised there was that much shale oil recoverable. I wonder just how accurate those estimated recovery rates are and at what cost

[MrRealDeal]

Thanks for the links .... My only criticism of the conclusion would be that it's based on shale oil that is newly discovered and I kind of reject the assumption that shale oil won't be found other places bringing the amount we have verses everyone else back to a more common sense number ..... it's not sensible to think America is the only place to have it just because we found it first.

I also have no idea how accurate ANY forecast of oil supply lasting is .... I have heard that if the entire Earth was filled at 2 feet below the surface it would only last 300 years , this one says 200 from one small area I don't think either of them have any clue we just keep on using it while developing replacements for some day later ..... which is fine by me

But I am happy to say I learned something from the links I did not know.

Edited June 25, 2013 by MrRealDeal

[i claudius]

So are we doomed or not?

[yoshiwara]

So are we doomed or not?

In 100 years you will be dead but your gold will still buy you a Marks and Spencer suit.

[NeverSure]

"The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined."

That's a new one to me. I'd be interested to see the source of this fact. Is it based on proven reserves?

The General Accounting office is a non-partisan branch of the US government which reports to congress.

The US probably has more like three times as much oil as all of the rest of the world combined. This is just reporting on one spot that has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

Link

Link

Energy Independence

I hadn't realised there was that much shale oil recoverable. I wonder just how accurate those estimated recovery rates are and at what cost

Thanks for the links .... My only criticism of the conclusion would be that it's based on shale oil that is newly discovered and I kind of reject the assumption that shale oil won't be found other places bringing the amount we have verses everyone else back to a more common sense number ..... it's not sensible to think America is the only place to have it just because we found it first.

I also have no idea how accurate ANY forecast of oil supply lasting is .... I have heard that if the entire Earth was filled at 2 feet below the surface it would only last 300 years , this one says 200 from one small area I don't think either of them have any clue we just keep on using it while developing replacements for some day later ..... which is fine by me

But I am happy to say I learned something from the links I did not know.

The estimates are very accurate. There are naysayers about shale oil, but Canada is the largest supplier of oil to the US and they are getting it from shale, right across the border from N. Dakota which is also exploding in extracting oil from shale. They are also doing it in Texas. This is why the US's oil production is up 20% this year. There not only is no recession in N. Dakota, but people are making $15 an hour working at McDonald's because of a labor shortage.

I remind that this statement is about only one location along the Rockie Mountains. It has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined. There are many other places with lots of oil that aren't being touched including offshore and Alaska.

The US has already drilled a 100 year supply of natural gas which could be used to power vehicles but that leaves a problem. Gasoline is a byproduct of oil and is cracked from a barrel of oil so that the real value of the oil can be used for butyl tires, medicines, fertilizers, plastics, paints, paving materials and on and on. So the gasoline actually needs to be used.

The US is huge and has vast timber stands, minerals including rare earth minerals, vast farm lands, water, 88,000 miles of salt water shoreline, and it's too soon to hold its wake. It also practically owns technology, and Silicon Valley never knew there was a recession. If the internet shut down in the US it would shut down worldwide in hours. Look around the room. Look at the technology. China may make it, but again, they are picking at the bones.

China is communist and must feed 1.3 billion people, and doesn't create but rather builds for those who do create, supplying cheap labor.

Who would you rather bet on?

[dave111223]

If the internet shut down in the US it would shut down worldwide in hours.

No

[MrRealDeal]

It's impossible to determine how much oil we will be using or need in 150 years ..... don't be absurd.

You forgot to mention coal another thing we have your basic almost endless supply of

People commute each day from my town in Montana to the Balkin fields I know all about ND and that area. And while 15 per hour would be good if not for the fields the prices went up so the workers standard of living is about the same so it's not as great as it might seem. It's fine for some and not so great for others of course, mostly the old and the poor just like always. but the labor shortage is so serious ..... and this is TRUE I swear on a bible ..... I know 2 bars that would rather keep bartenders who are stealing on the payroll because they can't find a replacement ! ..... One actually raised the drink prices to cover the stealing, I'm not kidding even though it's funny and absurd.

I'm all for economic development but I can tell you that it certainly changes a small town in a boom .... everything from murders not seen in 30 years to drugs to people doubling and tripling rents sending older people on their way that have and expected to live there until they died creating small town friction between what used to be old friends. Some people selling their homes for 3 times the value and moving on others trying to build them and sell them before it's to late. You would expect the small places like bars and eateries to be packed but I guess people are to tired to party and they are actually slightly slower than before. The water and sewer is now to small to service the town but the town doesn't have the money to make a new facility so the sewer gets run off into the Yellowstone river more than the Law allows until it gets fixed and upgraded, the whole thing is pretty crazy ..... I am on a few month vacation here and got called up as a Jury member for a murder trial ! .... I would go on but you get the idea.

I lived in Alaska during the pipeline boom but the difference was that no one really lost out as the town just seemed to expand naturally or perhaps just had better planning I don't know ..... but this place is just a freaking zoo run by 3 old dudes like 85 who have no clue as to anything really except the last 80 years of how it used to be. Dickenson and Bismark in ND are pretty much the same kind of zoo but 10 times the size before it started.

Another strange thing is that it's not especially noticeable , You flush the toilet and it works , you don't see the old people moving on just hear about it , the roads are busier but not so much , if you just took a casual look you would have no idea of the problems or changes that go on, on a daily basis it would just look like a normal small town with 3 stop lights no big deal.

[asupeartea]

Check out James (Jim) Chanos for frank information on China. He's been short on things China for about three years and done boat loads of due diligence.

[Gomyway]

Let's be happy that everything in USA is fine or is it maybe not like it should look?

Quote: Washington has succeeded in getting Japan and the EU to print yen and euros in order to eliminate the likelihood of flight to other large currency alternatives to the dollar. Smaller countries have also had to print in order to protect their export markets.

Look at the word 'Smaller countries' and remember what had to happen here about the interest and the Baht: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/06/20/the-rational-market-myth-paul-craig-roberts/