Are bubbles beginning to burst?

[asupeartea]

Jim Chanos at the 2013 Wine Country Conference China: The Edifice Complex

[yoshiwara]

Check out James (Jim) Chanos for frank information on China. He's been short on things China for about three years and done boat loads of due diligence.

Jim O'Neill would take a different perspective. Chanos is one position.

[churchill]

Check out James (Jim) Chanos for frank information on China. He's been short on things China for about three years and done boat loads of due diligence.

Jim O'Neill would take a different perspective. Chanos is one position.

as Mobius

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/mobius-chinas-problems-big-us-110403158.html

[goatfarmer]

The Shanghai Composite Index has been in decline for the last four years. There is no bubble there, or if there is, it is deflating at an orderly pace.

[belg]

stocks and gold - 10% in asia

only the beginning

[GreigMcallister]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

"The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined."

That's a new one to me. I'd be interested to see the source of this fact. Is it based on proven reserves?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves.. Not even close!

[dunque]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

"The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined."

That's a new one to me. I'd be interested to see the source of this fact. Is it based on proven reserves?

The CIA doesn't think so - not even in the top 10 - and dwarfed by their northern neighbours.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2244rank.html

[Mudcrab]

Thanks for the links .... My only criticism of the conclusion would be that it's based on shale oil that is newly discovered and I kind of reject the assumption that shale oil won't be found other places bringing the amount we have verses everyone else back to a more common sense number ..... it's not sensible to think America is the only place to have it just because we found it first.

I also have no idea how accurate ANY forecast of oil supply lasting is .... I have heard that if the entire Earth was filled at 2 feet below the surface it would only last 300 years , this one says 200 from one small area I don't think either of them have any clue we just keep on using it while developing replacements for some day later ..... which is fine by me

But I am happy to say I learned something from the links I did not know.

what the links don't show is the cost both economically and environmentally. Politically could be interesting too based on the experience in Australia. The fracking process is politically taboo there at the moment. its one thing having the goodies...quite another having them on the shelf for sale.

Having said that I wish the USA all the best in changing the energy balance in the world including becoming a coal exporter.

[David48]

Hmm a wise old oil guy once told me Myanmar would be a sound investment a few years back. With the way the world is going and the state of most places + New government looks like he was indeed very correct.

a correct forecast for those who believe in rebirth. what are presently, or for years to come, the possibilities of a private investor to invest in Myanmar?

Agreeing with you.

We warmly await the possibilities in the future, though for the moment, those choices are few ... if any.

[harryfrompattaya]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

I agree with you in principle, although I believe that reality is going to be much different in the US unless the current political travails do not pass with this administration. If sanity does not prevail, I fear devolution throughout the US. We are already seeing the start of this in Detroit, Chicago, LA, Oakland and surrounding areas. Should the left retain control in 2016, the tipping point will have past and the downward spiral will only accelerate. When those that vote for a living outnumber those that work for a living, the game is over.

The cities you talk about in America had a great leap this year in housing these cites are coming back. USA Number One

[cocopops]

The Shanghai Composite Index has been in decline for the last four years. There is no bubble there, or if there is, it is deflating at an orderly pace.

H-Shares as well. HSCEI down to a PE of about 8 and a trailing yield of over 4%. Of course a lot of that is due to the shares of the big Chinese banks looking obscenely cheap, and who knows how they might turn out...

Still, if one were serious about buying where sentiment is most negative, are there any stocks in the world more hated than Chinese banks and coal companies?

[winstonc]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

I agree with you in principle, although I believe that reality is going to be much different in the US unless the current political travails do not pass with this administration. If sanity does not prevail, I fear devolution throughout the US. We are already seeing the start of this in Detroit, Chicago, LA, Oakland and surrounding areas. Should the left retain control in 2016, the tipping point will have past and the downward spiral will only accelerate. When those that vote for a living outnumber those that work for a living, the game is over.

aaaah but oil wont last forever,and its not edible,and you cant drink,my truck does,buts thats about it,,,,,once all the fish in the sea has been harvested well,its i bit more downhill after that me thinks,,i would love to be wrong though

[GeorgeO]

So are we doomed or not?

Eventually ...

[poanoi]

You mean buy someone elses marks & spencer suit

[weegee]

As i have qouted previously....China will be a spent force by 2015....this info was given to me a few years ago....from a person very high up in the know in china.

I was told that china will peak in 2012, and done by 2015.....not worried if you want to take it or not, as i have retired from shares and investments....

But knowing where the info came from.....and NO, i wont be naming the person or their position in China.

[HUAHIN62]

The world economy are all linked, if China should go down in flames the rest will follow, including the phony US "recovering" economy. Lets hope the Chinese can sortout their problems for the good of the world.

[JSixpack]

You mean buy someone elses marks & spencer suit

[KRS1]

Thanks for the links .... My only criticism of the conclusion would be that it's based on shale oil that is newly discovered and I kind of reject the assumption that shale oil won't be found other places bringing the amount we have verses everyone else back to a more common sense number ..... it's not sensible to think America is the only place to have it just because we found it first.

I also have no idea how accurate ANY forecast of oil supply lasting is .... I have heard that if the entire Earth was filled at 2 feet below the surface it would only last 300 years , this one says 200 from one small area I don't think either of them have any clue we just keep on using it while developing replacements for some day later ..... which is fine by me

But I am happy to say I learned something from the links I did not know.

We use to shoot oil shale for target practice in Texas before we even knew what it was.

We just knew that it shattered fabulously into pieces when hit with a 7.62

[PCA]

was just about to saying basically the same.

[Tywais]

Posts with messed up quotes removed and replies

[MrRealDeal]

He removed those posts for me .... Yoshi I didn't make that post .... he forgot or didn't see your post I guess but that quote about china gold ect was pasted in my box not written by me and I think it's a lot of nonsense just like everyone else which is probably why he posted it under my name because he knew I would disagree with it

[hawker9000]

Just as the bubble bursting in the US caused ripples around the world, we are heading for a perfect storm.

China's economy is built on smoke and mirrors.

The US economy is not in recovery, no matter what the pundits say.

The EU's problems have not been resolved and they are living on borrowed time.

When it all comes down, there will be no place to hide. With the exception of living in a society / culture with a subsistence economy built on agriculture. Philippines, Vietnam and to a degree, Thailand.

Here is how China has been able to keep their GDP up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

I agree fully with you on all but one point. Please don't sell the US short. When you look at someone's balance sheet, you can't just look at liabilities. You also have to look at assets. The US has two things in its favor. One is its vast size and natural resources, and the other is its technology.

China is picking up the scraps of what the West invented. Yes it makes the IPad and Nike shoes, but Apple and Nike make the real money. China isn't an inventor. It is a copier. Western countries are making big money from what China manufactures. China's debt, and its shadow banking debt are staggering.

The US is increasing its oil production by 20% this year. By 2017 it will be oil independent. In less than ten years it will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. This is without touching any of the oil that's off shore, or in Alaska. And, the US has 88,000 miles of shoreline, much of it containing oil. The US has more oil than all of the rest of the world combined.

As for a safe haven in the perfect storm, I'd rather be in rural US where there is vast farmland and where people are already fairly self sufficient than to be in a SE Asian country which might become very unstable including perhaps another coup in Thailand or elsewhere.

Thailand is another country which picks up the scraps of what others invented. It manufactures, but mostly for other countries. There isn't much profit in it for Thailand. It's the inventors and the innovators who are making the money.

I agree with you in principle, although I believe that reality is going to be much different in the US unless the current political travails do not pass with this administration. If sanity does not prevail, I fear devolution throughout the US. We are already seeing the start of this in Detroit, Chicago, LA, Oakland and surrounding areas. Should the left retain control in 2016, the tipping point will have past and the downward spiral will only accelerate. When those that vote for a living outnumber those that work for a living, the game is over.

RE the left retaining control in 2016, it hardly matters. The US is already done. And 'following Europe into the abyss. It's all "baked in" at this point. Not even a true conservative in the White House (as unlikely as that is from now on - those who vote for a living DO now outnumber those who work for a living) could change the course already set.

[NCC1701A]

I always wonder why people start taking about the end of the world when the economy starts to fall apart. It is not the end of the world. It was not the end of the world in 1929. Back then, the economy collapsed which ultimately led to a world war with 50 million dead. Life goes on for students of history. I do wonder what life will be like in Thailand after, sorry, if the DOW goes to 4200. Maybe the poor farmers will be OK as long as the Thai government lets them keep some of their crops for personal consumption. No more tourism. No more modern consumerism for maybe ten years? Would not want to be in Bangkok. Maybe in a compound up north. Anyway over the next ten years we will see this play out as the FED fights to retain control over the world. Some of this you get to watch on television, some will be right outside your door.

[David48]

.

So where do you guys store your wealth in there turbulent times?

.

[Naam]

As i have qouted previously....China will be a spent force by 2015....this info was given to me a few years ago....from a person very high up in the know in china.

I was told that china will peak in 2012, and done by 2015.....not worried if you want to take it or not, as i have retired from shares and investments....

But knowing where the info came from.....and NO, i wont be naming the person or their position in China.

[MrRealDeal]

As i have qouted previously....China will be a spent force by 2015....this info was given to me a few years ago....from a person very high up in the know in china.

I was told that china will peak in 2012, and done by 2015.....not worried if you want to take it or not, as i have retired from shares and investments....

But knowing where the info came from.....and NO, i wont be naming the person or their position in China.

[yoshiwara]

.

So where do you guys store your wealth in there turbulent times?

.

I know someone who does. Stores it in his security box on the wall. All the banks are going to collapse and so it is necessary you see. All these guys live in Thailand now apparently. Impeccable analysis and a girlfriend to match. Edited June 26, 2013 by yoshiwara

[Netizen]

So are we doomed or not?

In 100 years you will be dead but your gold will still buy you a Marks and Spencer suit.

All the doomsayers can vie to be the richest man in the graveyard with gold hemorrhoids.

[BlackJack]

All the guys predicting the end of the world and apocalyptic headlines are trying to flog you gold. Trailing dogsh*t all over their shoes.

wheres the dont like button?

[yoshiwara]

All the guys predicting the end of the world and apocalyptic headlines are trying to flog you gold. Trailing dogsh*t all over their shoes.

wheres the dont like button?

On the sole of your shoes probably.