Election Day In Thailand

[george]

Thai Rak Thai candidate in Bangkok's Constituency 6 "beaten" by "no-vote" votes

The early vote counting in Bangkok's Constituency 6 showed that most voters cast "no-vote" instead of casting votes for Thai Rak Thai candidate Danupol Punnakan.

At 22:50 pm when the votes have been counted by 21 per cent, 11,457 voters cast "not vote" votes while 5,090 voters voted for Danupol.

--The Nation 2006-04-02

[sriracha john]

No, just something else you mixed up, Orion...

Edited April 2, 2006 by sriracha john

[hammered]

No votes are doing better than anyone expected. This will be a headache for TRT.

[Plus]

From the election law

http://www.ect.go.th/english/laws/organiclawelection.html

Section 74. In any constituency, if on the election day, there is one candidate standing for an election on a constituency basis and such candidate receives votes at least twenty percent of the total number of electors in that constituency, the Election Commission shall announce such candidate to be the person elected.

In the case where one remaining candidate, standing for an election under paragraph one, receives votes of less than twenty percent of the total number of electors in that constituency, the Election Commission shall hold a new election in such costituency.

>>>>>>>>>>>>

I have been wrong.

[sriracha john]

Election Monitor Centre received 296 complaints of poll fraud

BANGKOK, April 2 (TNA) – The Election Monitor Centre received a total of 296 complaints about electoral fraud during the voting hours of between 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. Sunday.

[Orion76]

Thanks for the clarification Plus

john, double yawn

Edited April 2, 2006 by Orion76

[hammered]

An additional problem may well be that candidates who receive less votes than "no vote" but who are duly elected may be seen as unworthy reps. A look at the latest ABAC pol would also support his idea

[jdinasia]

we could go around in circles ... but really I am sure in UNCONTESTED areas it must be 20% of eligible voters for a winner

ooops plus caught it ... thanks for the confirmation Plus

Edited April 2, 2006 by jdinasia

[Plus]

70% of Bangkokians thing that those TRT candidates who lose to "no vote" shouldn't become MPs.

Legally, of course, they have won, yet here's the old "legitimacy" issue. 70% is a lot. Hardly any question gets 70% support in polls.

[lung]

just see the first results on tv..

but i can't follow... mai khao tshai

[Digger]

Let me see if I have got this right

Assuming a hyperthetical consistutency of knakonknowwhere we have a 100,000 registered voters.

Working on a typical turnout, we are at around 75%, meaning 75,000 votes cast.

With only the TRT candidate, he must win 20,001 votes (20%) to be declared the winner.

So in terms of actual votes, that would mean in general terms 20,000 divided in the 75,000 votes cast or 26% (given that the turnout is only 75%)

[mittheimp]

Let me see if I have got this right

Assuming a hyperthetical consistutency of knakonknowwhere we have a 100,000 registered voters.

Working on a typical turnout, we are at around 75%, meaning 75,000 votes cast.

With only the TRT candidate, he must win 20,001 votes (20%) to be declared the winner.

So in terms of actual votes, that would mean in general terms 20,000 divided in the 75,000 votes cast or 26% (given that the turnout is only 75%)

i am sure its based on turn out - otherwise why bother to vote for 'no one'?

[hammered]

Let me see if I have got this right

Assuming a hyperthetical consistutency of knakonknowwhere we have a 100,000 registered voters.

Working on a typical turnout, we are at around 75%, meaning 75,000 votes cast.

With only the TRT candidate, he must win 20,001 votes (20%) to be declared the winner.

So in terms of actual votes, that would mean in general terms 20,000 divided in the 75,000 votes cast or 26% (given that the turnout is only 75%)

But an additional problem is he gets 26% and none of the above gets 35%. He stil wins and yet faces a legitimacy problem

[jdinasia]

Let me see if I have got this right

Assuming a hyperthetical consistutency of knakonknowwhere we have a 100,000 registered voters.

Working on a typical turnout, we are at around 75%, meaning 75,000 votes cast.

With only the TRT candidate, he must win 20,001 votes (20%) to be declared the winner.

So in terms of actual votes, that would mean in general terms 20,000 divided in the 75,000 votes cast or 26% (given that the turnout is only 75%)

i am sure its based on turn out - otherwise why bother to vote for 'no one'?

Because voting is compulsory in Thailand ... fail to vote and lose certain rights (and telling people to not vote at all is against the law!

Edited April 2, 2006 by jdinasia

[hammered]

Let me see if I have got this right

Assuming a hyperthetical consistutency of knakonknowwhere we have a 100,000 registered voters.

Working on a typical turnout, we are at around 75%, meaning 75,000 votes cast.

With only the TRT candidate, he must win 20,001 votes (20%) to be declared the winner.

So in terms of actual votes, that would mean in general terms 20,000 divided in the 75,000 votes cast or 26% (given that the turnout is only 75%)

i am sure its based on turn out - otherwise why bother to vote for 'no one'?

Because voting is compulsory in Thailand ... fail to vote and lose certain rights

The rights you lose are nothing. The ability to be an MP and the ability to sign a recall. Many do not go home to vote.

[Plus]

"No vote" is to tell TRT to shove Thaksin up their asses.

Lots of people see the elections as TRT vs. NO VOTE, but in terms of 20% it really doesn't matter if people ticked no vote or didn't show up at all.

Sondhi didn't vote, for example.

That just confirms that he has no political aspirations.

[hammered]

"No vote" is to tell TRT to shove Thaksin up their asses.

Lots of people see the elections as TRT vs. NO VOTE, but in terms of 20% it really doesn't matter if people ticked no vote or didn't show up at all.

Sondhi didn't vote, for example.

That just confirms that he has no political aspirations.

That TRT could not get 50% plus in many constuencies will hurt them. No note plus spoiled the peer is ading up to lot of votes in this election.

[jdinasia]

Let me see if I have got this right

Assuming a hyperthetical consistutency of knakonknowwhere we have a 100,000 registered voters.

Working on a typical turnout, we are at around 75%, meaning 75,000 votes cast.

With only the TRT candidate, he must win 20,001 votes (20%) to be declared the winner.

So in terms of actual votes, that would mean in general terms 20,000 divided in the 75,000 votes cast or 26% (given that the turnout is only 75%)

i am sure its based on turn out - otherwise why bother to vote for 'no one'?

Because voting is compulsory in Thailand ... fail to vote and lose certain rights

The rights you lose are nothing. The ability to be an MP and the ability to sign a recall. Many do not go home to vote.

I didn't say they were major reasons for most people ... but voting is compulsory none-the-less ... which is why the law is worded the way it is

anyways ... Plus found and cited the relevant law already ... it is 20% of the total eligible voters in a given constituency to win a seat unopposed.

Edited April 2, 2006 by jdinasia

[lung]

fresh from the NATION

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---------------------

A belligerent Thaksin had vowed not to return to office if the "no votes" plus votes for smaller parties beat pro-Thai Rak Thai votes nationwide. According to the sources, the exit polls conducted by the party showed that Thai Rak Thai's 19 million votes in the last election could plunge to 15 million this time.

"The leaders are still shocked and the party's mood is tense," said a party source. "They had expected a high turnout of 'no votes' but never thought it would be this high."

Among Thai Rak Thai Bangkok candidates facing humiliation by "no votes" are Pongpisut Jintasopon (Constituency 7), Sita Tiwari (Constituency 8) and Pimon Srivikorn (Constituency 18).

There is also concern that even in the Thai Rak Thai strongholds of the North and Northeast, large numbers of "no votes" in inner city areas will embarrass the party.

With no exit polls, officials did not expect a full picture of the returns until some time today.

---------------

then sleeping first ... and wait....

[hammered]

fresh from the NATION

------------------------

---------------------

A belligerent Thaksin had vowed not to return to office if the "no votes" plus votes for smaller parties beat pro-Thai Rak Thai votes nationwide. According to the sources, the exit polls conducted by the party showed that Thai Rak Thai's 19 million votes in the last election could plunge to 15 million this time.

"The leaders are still shocked and the party's mood is tense," said a party source. "They had expected a high turnout of 'no votes' but never thought it would be this high."

Among Thai Rak Thai Bangkok candidates facing humiliation by "no votes" are Pongpisut Jintasopon (Constituency 7), Sita Tiwari (Constituency 8) and Pimon Srivikorn (Constituency 18).

There is also concern that even in the Thai Rak Thai strongholds of the North and Northeast, large numbers of "no votes" in inner city areas will embarrass the party.

With no exit polls, officials did not expect a full picture of the returns until some time today.

---------------

then sleeping first ... and wait....

In the north homeleand of TRT the best they are doing is 2:1. This is amazing.

[sriracha john]

the first half of that article is also interesting...

'No vote' stuns PM

Early results show Thaksin losing huge support in the capital

- Rattled leader avoids press, plans emergency meeting with senior Thai Rak Thai members this afternoon

- Ruling party insiders fear result could give new momentum to PAD

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra abruptly cancelled a planned evening press conference and

refused to leave his home last night, apparently rattled by a staggeringly high number of "abstain" votes in an election he portrayed as a virtual national referendum on his beleaguered leadership.

Early counts showed the ruling Thai Rak Thai Party losing its grip on Bangkok, the hotbed of anti-government protests for more than three months. Abstain votes in many constituencies in the capital outnumbered votes for Thai Rak Thai candidates, who ran in a virtual one-horse race because the opposition bloc had boycotted the election.

But the question of legitimacy will not be limited to Bangkok. The Democrat-dominated South also gave Thai Rak Thai a big snub. Many "winning" Thai Rak Thai candidates in the South stand to be disqualified because the law stipulates that candidates who have no competition must win at least 20 per cent of support from eligible voters in their constituencies. This raises the highly contentious issue of whether an "incomplete" House of Representatives can convene and elect the next prime minister.

Thai Rak Thai sources said party leaders were rocked by informal exit poll results showing that the number of abstain votes, called "no votes" by the anti-Thaksin movement, would be much higher than expected. "Everyone is bewildered," said a party insider. "Many targets have not been reached. Now the biggest worry is Bangkok."

At press time, many of Thai Rak Thai's Bangkok candidates were trailing the "no vote" numbers in their constituencies. It appears that anti-Thaksin sentiment is particularly strong in inner Bangkok, but he remains fairly popular in the suburbs. But even though many Thai Rak Thai candidates will beat the "no votes", the party is afraid that the poll results will give new momentum to the campaign by the People's Alliance for Democracy to oust its leader.

[hammered]

the first half of that article is also interesting...

'No vote' stuns PM

Early results show Thaksin losing huge support in the capital

- Rattled leader avoids press, plans emergency meeting with senior Thai Rak Thai members this afternoon

- Ruling party insiders fear result could give new momentum to PAD

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra abruptly cancelled a planned evening press conference and

refused to leave his home last night, apparently rattled by a staggeringly high number of "abstain" votes in an election he portrayed as a virtual national referendum on his beleaguered leadership.

Early counts showed the ruling Thai Rak Thai Party losing its grip on Bangkok, the hotbed of anti-government protests for more than three months. Abstain votes in many constituencies in the capital outnumbered votes for Thai Rak Thai candidates, who ran in a virtual one-horse race because the opposition bloc had boycotted the election.

But the question of legitimacy will not be limited to Bangkok. The Democrat-dominated South also gave Thai Rak Thai a big snub. Many "winning" Thai Rak Thai candidates in the South stand to be disqualified because the law stipulates that candidates who have no competition must win at least 20 per cent of support from eligible voters in their constituencies. This raises the highly contentious issue of whether an "incomplete" House of Representatives can convene and elect the next prime minister.

Thai Rak Thai sources said party leaders were rocked by informal exit poll results showing that the number of abstain votes, called "no votes" by the anti-Thaksin movement, would be much higher than expected. "Everyone is bewildered," said a party insider. "Many targets have not been reached. Now the biggest worry is Bangkok."

At press time, many of Thai Rak Thai's Bangkok candidates were trailing the "no vote" numbers in their constituencies. It appears that anti-Thaksin sentiment is particularly strong in inner Bangkok, but he remains fairly popular in the suburbs. But even though many Thai Rak Thai candidates will beat the "no votes", the party is afraid that the poll results will give new momentum to the campaign by the People's Alliance for Democracy to oust its leader.

And nobody is mentioning Petchaburi, Chonburi, Rayong, Nakon Pathom, Samut Sakon, Khorat, Nakon Sawan al provinces in which TRT underperformed. The whole debate still focuses on the only anti-TRT constituencies being in BKK or the south.

[mittheimp]

I hope the nation article is true - but they are not always totally impartial!

[sriracha john]

Senior citizen crime wave grips election day:

Police grab grannies over polling booth confusion in which papers are damaged

Two elderly women were arrested after mistakenly destroying their ballot papers at polling booths yesterday.

In Ayutthaya, Pranom Hiranmas, 72, said she had marked her papers incorrectly and destroyed them without realising that she was breaking the law.

After questioning, the police concluded it was a mistake and Pranom was temporarily released while prosecutors consider whether to send the case to court.

"I have always voted but I really didn't know that destroying the papers broke the law," Pranom said.

Duang Boonrak, 81, in Surat Thani's Thung Luang sub-district, was arrested after leaving a

booth with damaged papers.

The provincial EC director Chusak Eakphet concluded that Duang had not intended to violate the law but had accidentally damaged the papers while trying to fold them.

Later, an administrative officer arranged Duang's bail.

- TN

[Sandstone Art]

Those 'NO VOTES' are slaps on that fat square face

Time for him to start packing ..... head to the airport before it is too late dear TOXIN !

[sriracha john]

Any word, number-wise, on invalidated ballots? eg. marked incorrectly and thus not allowed to be counted?

[sushiman]

Good morning folks,

Any idea how many No-Votes will be ending up on the table?

20-40%? rather 40%, to optimistic?

Or is it a silly question, and to early to ask for?

I wonder. But anyhow so far what I'm reading now, is real encouraging slap in the face, for these

"Snap-Erections".

[sushiman]

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Post-election, Thaksin's grand exit and entry strategies

Yesterday's snap poll, by any measure, could easily have been called a joke had it not cost taxpayers an inordinately high Bt2 billion-plus and left the country nervous about the likely consequences in the days and weeks to come.

Now it seems to be a blessing in disguise because of the high "no-vote" turnout (which required no palms to be greased or money to change hands) that could hasten the demise of the embattled caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thaksin, who defied incredible pressures to string out his political bargaining until the ballots could be cast, may still be taking some pleasure from the election. By weathering the storm, he has now been officially "laundered" by this bizarre, mostly uncontested election.

At time of writing, Thaksin's candidates have won big in constituencies in the North and Northeast regions as expected. But the unexpectedly high number of "no votes" in Bangkok, the central region and 56 districts in the southern provinces have shaken Thaksin's and Thai Rak Thai's legitimacy. In this election, there are 276 single-candidate constituencies, and it must be remembered that they ("they" all being Thai Rak Thai members) require 20 per cent of the votes. If history is any guide, and with the logistic problems this time around, including the use of rubber stamps and sloppiness in setting up polling booths, it could all end up rather messy.

Perhaps the saddest thing has been the Election Commission's passive attitude to protecting the public interest. The EC refused to look into a petition by university professors and lecturers about Thaksin's breaches of electoral law. As such, electoral malpractice will be rampant and not be reported or taken up for serious investigation. In fact, some cases from the previous election have yet to be properly investigated.

Judging from his comments and overall stance last night, Thaksin is now likely to take what is known in local parlance as ven vak - a political break. He has not made clear if this recess would remove him from the premiership or politics generally. Of course his decision depends on the final vote tally, which will be known tomorrow. Then, Thaksin's true colours should be revealed.

Long before yesterday's poll, Thai Rak Thai Party insiders predicted their party would win about 20 million votes, one million more than their record in last year's election. After all, party canvassers, village heads and those who have benefited from the government's cash give-away schemes are very much in control in key positions throughout the country, except in the southern provinces. The initial outcome of yesterday's vote clearly reflected this strong link.

With the outcome of yesterday's vote, Thaksin will still think he has won the game of political brinkmanship, despite the big "no vote" turnout. He sees the vote, especially in rural areas, as a national referendum on his leadership. In a day or two, he has to make a big decision in which he has two options. The first is a grand exit strategy: he simply does what he has pledged all along and steps down as premier to let another party leader take the helm. In this case, it could be Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak. To impress the public, he could ask for an audience with His Majesty the King to decline the premiership. This would ease the current political tension and Thaksin could watch the political reforms from the sidelines. It would be the most graceful way for him to exit Thai politics temporarily.

Or he could stay on as an elected politician, citing his mandate, and serve in some other powerful position, such as House Speaker. This scenario is highly unlikely now, but he could defer his decision and come back later on. Thaksin has coveted this post for a long time because, apart from the premier, only the speaker can make or break political initiatives. He knows he can use the position to manipulate Thai politics as he sees fit. In this scenario, the centre of political gravity will shift from Government House to Parliament. He believes he has the money and political clout to achieve these objectives.

When General Prem Tinsulanonda, president of the Privy Council, cast his advance vote last week, he sent a strong signal that the ballot would definitely be held. It was equally clear that the call by the coalition of civic organisations, various professional and intellectual groups and the Democrat Party for direct royal intervention in the political turmoil would for the time being remain just "an expression of common desire".

Interestingly, this historic appeal did not come about by itself. A series of books on the nature of royal power, written by a former bureaucrat who was also a Thai Rak Thai leader, were a big hit when released early last year, generating debate in a society which used to treat any royal subject as taboo.

The debate on royal power gained much currency and it gradually entered the realm of public consciousness that royal power would prevail and come to the rescue when the country faces a political crisis. It has been a source of hope, almost wishful thinking, among Thais who disdain Thaksin's lack of accountability and transparency. For example, the Supreme Administrative Court's ruling against the privatisation of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand was very damaging to Thaksin, who pushed hard for the plan. But he refused to take responsibility and dismissed the flaws in the plan as technical errors.

This sentiment eventually led a cross-section of civil society, including businessmen and professional groups, to change tactics shortly before the election and, instead of asking for people to boycott or cast "no vote" ballots, make a united call for a royally bestowed prime minister.

Immediately after Prem's appearance at the ballot booth, university professors and intellectuals switched strategy to call for the "no vote" option. The focus then shifted to the prime minister himself, but it was a bit too late.

However, Thaksin's opponents still hope to use the high "no vote" ballots as grounds to pressure him to stay away from politics for good, along with more street protests, of course.

Furthermore, the political situation in days to come will be volatile because of voting irregularities in various areas. The EC will be under close scrutiny again. Of course, the authorities will not be able to respond to public calls in time for investigations into vote rigging, which could lead to higher turnouts at the rallies planned on April 7 and 8. For its part, Thai Rak Thai wants to hold the inaugural Parliament session as soon as possible to make official their continued reign.

However, there could be rumblings and possible clashes when the People's Alliance for Democracy returns to Government House later this week. The confrontation could be more aggressive, without the illusions or restraint the protesters had in previous face-offs.

Kavi Chongkittavorn

Source - Nation 03April2006 www.nationmultimedia.com Thailands English Newspaper of the Year! (my opinion)

[cmcarrent]

Watching The Nation News online at the moment.

Based on the Live-Update on the news, the percentage of Votes calculated islandwide so far, the number of votes for TRT, the number of votes for Opposition Party (if Exist), did a rough calculation myself, the number of "Not Vote" votes is between the range of 40%-60% of the total votes at the moment.

By the way, many TRT Candidates still haven't made it through 20% eligible voters in a given constituency to win a seat unopposed.

[sushiman]

Watching The Nation News online at the moment.

Based on the Live-Update on the news, the percentage of Votes calculated islandwide so far, the number of votes for TRT, the number of votes for Opposition Party (if Exist), did a rough calculation myself, the number of "Not Vote" votes is between the range of 40%-60% of the total votes at the moment.

By the way, many TRT Candidates still haven't made it through 20% eligible voters in a given constituency to win a seat unopposed.

40-60% "No Votes", wow ..... holy cow, what a good result, better than I expected.

Guess we can cheer tomorrow for sure (than ones who have reason to cheer) when we have more counts finished. I guess whatever the result will be (40-60%) time to pack his bags, and go finally for some real holidays on the British Virgin Islands, maybe he can finally think about some stock listing with a new company for NASDAQ as planned before

thanks for your update!

... rather pleased off to dodo..... great day for democracy I believe

Cheers