Egypt crisis: Interim president sworn in after Morsi ousted

[iancnx]

Hmmm. Some very interesting posts and links here and a lot of information to be assimilated. History plays a huge part in what has happened here in my view.

The last thing Israel wanted on it's borders was a government formed by the Muslim Brotherhood. But of course they were elected democratically so a waiting game has inevitably unfolded. Morsi was always unlikely to succeed with his USA backed neighbours itching to have him removed at all costs. A world recession has assisted in that 'play' nicely. The bottom line is the US pays enormously for the Egyptian Military and therefore controls it. Much better to have them back close to power, under US control than allow the pro Hamas Morsi and his Brothers a chance to build another Islamist power base in the region.

The events of the past few weeks were contrived a year ago IMO. Poor Egypt. The ordinary poor Egyptians are the ones who will suffer, and you can be certain Tel Aviv will shed no tears.

[lemoncake]

Hmmm. Some very interesting posts and links here and a lot of information to be assimilated. History plays a huge part in what has happened here in my view.

The last thing Israel wanted on it's borders was a government formed by the Muslim Brotherhood. But of course they were elected democratically so a waiting game has inevitably unfolded. Morsi was always unlikely to succeed with his USA backed neighbours itching to have him removed at all costs. A world recession has assisted in that 'play' nicely. The bottom line is the US pays enormously for the Egyptian Military and therefore controls it. Much better to have them back close to power, under US control than allow the pro Hamas Morsi and his Brothers a chance to build another Islamist power base in the region.

The events of the past few weeks were contrived a year ago IMO. Poor Egypt. The ordinary poor Egyptians are the ones who will suffer, and you can be certain Tel Aviv will shed no tears.

Nice dig at attacking Israel, only Israel has nothing to do with the matter.

Who do you think are the people on the streets? Not ordinary poor??

[lemoncake]

People say a lot of things to promote their cause and to discredit the opposition. That's normal. In Egypt it's an attention getter among some to say their new leader is a Jew. The middle class that led the second revolution against the Muslim Brotherhood know the claim is baloney, perhaps even malicious.

The statement reflects more on the people making the wild accusation than on the person himself or against the persons who made the interim appointment. Extremist claims do not negate the reality of the situation or the circumstance because the middle class are middle minded politically and socioeconomically.

Extremist Islamics are fooling (and further discrediting) only themselves.

Middle class is the minority and are not the ones on the street.

This is very very simple , Morsi did not feed the brass, they removed him.

Will military use force now? Yes if they have suitable person to lead and feed.

Egyptian military does not want any conflicts with Israel or anyone else for that matter, they use to get nice 9 figure aid from US and like to keep it same

[Scott]

Unless posters are going to use a credible news source, I think we can leave the speculation about the US or Israel being behind this out of the thread. At this point, this is no more than conspiracy theory.

Stay on topic, please.

[simple1]

An analysis of the economic challenges facing any future government.

Egypt's crisis goes much deeper than the recent political chaos. With the leader of the Supreme Constitutional Court taking over the presidency at the behest of the military, the new government will likely represent a coalition of interests facing many of the same challenges that brought about Mohammed Morsi's downfall. Egypt's population has grown well beyond the means of the state to support its needs, and even a strong state will struggle to ensure sufficient supplies of basic staples, particularly fuel and wheat

Read more: Egypt: Persistent Issues Undermine Stability | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

[iancnx]

I understand your stance Scott, and I, of course, respect you wanting to stay on thread.

Please don't believe I am a spreader of conspiracy theories though. I have worked and lived in Riyadh 95-97 and Cairo 2000-2003 ..... And I consider my knowledge and crucially my experience perhaps a little more valid than a credible (western) news source ( ? ).

Afternote: Also lived and worked in Beirut, Damascus and Manama

[iancnx]

People say a lot of things to promote their cause and to discredit the opposition. That's normal. In Egypt it's an attention getter among some to say their new leader is a Jew. The middle class that led the second revolution against the Muslim Brotherhood know the claim is baloney, perhaps even malicious.

The statement reflects more on the people making the wild accusation than on the person himself or against the persons who made the interim appointment. Extremist claims do not negate the reality of the situation or the circumstance because the middle class are middle minded politically and socioeconomically.

Extremist Islamics are fooling (and further discrediting) only themselves.

Middle class is the minority and are not the ones on the street.

This is very very simple , Morsi did not feed the brass, they removed him.

Will military use force now? Yes if they have suitable person to lead and feed.

Egyptian military does not want any conflicts with Israel or anyone else for that matter, they use to get nice 9 figure aid from US and like to keep it same

This and your other post above is in my view contradictory. Happy to participate in a separate thread.

[iancnx]

Try this

http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/egypts-waning-influence

And this

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-07/egypt-s-crisis-was-no-military-coup-ambassador-to-u-s-says.html

And this

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/06/world/middleeast/egypt-crisis-finds-washington-ambivalent-and-aloof.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Edited July 8, 2013 by iancnx

[lemoncake]

I understand your stance Scott, and I, of course, respect you wanting to stay on thread.

Please don't believe I am a spreader of conspiracy theories though. I have worked and lived in Riyadh 95-97 and Cairo 2000-2003 ..... And I consider my knowledge and crucially my experience perhaps a little more valid than a credible (western) news source ( ? ).

Afternote: Also lived and worked in Beirut, Damascus and Manama

May be you have spent little too long to start believing that not only you know more than anyone else but also that Israel and US are the ones to blame for everything and anything

[iancnx]

I understand your stance Scott, and I, of course, respect you wanting to stay on thread.

Please don't believe I am a spreader of conspiracy theories though. I have worked and lived in Riyadh 95-97 and Cairo 2000-2003 ..... And I consider my knowledge and crucially my experience perhaps a little more valid than a credible (western) news source ( ? ).

Afternote: Also lived and worked in Beirut, Damascus and Manama

May be you have spent little too long to start believing that not only you know more than anyone else but also that Israel and US are the ones to blame for everything and anything

This particular post was for the moderator. I am happy to contribute to a thread on your chosen subject based on my experiences.

[Scott]

We have lived and worked in some of the same places, by the way, Iancnx. However, in order to keep a thread on topic, we need to exercise care in our posts. North Africa and the Middle East is an enigmatic place. At this point in time, though, we will stick to a more factual approach to our posts.

[lemoncake]

Just as i said earlier, now Muslim Brotherhood is calling an uprising against the army.So the History does repeat itself, it will take another dictator with force to stabilize the country or it will fall into civil war,funny enough also the view of Russian President

Edited July 8, 2013 by lemoncake

[Publicus]

I would think Egypt's frustration has less to do with the style of government and more to do with their dire economic situation. They are desperate to get economy back on track, get jobs and correct stag inflation. I doubt any of this would have happened had economy been on track and people were not hurting.

The problem is coup was an impatient response to correct the heart of the matter, but will only make the matter worse. If they could have held another year, got IMF funds and etc., they had the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel.

Now, they run risk of disintegrating much like a Syria as their economy is now completely screwed and an entirely new desperation will be felt say 30 days out when central bank is insolvent due to money being converted and moved.

Oh and the economy was screwed before Morsi took over. Completely screwed so removing him fixed zero from an economic perspective because he still had a chance to get IMF funds and provide foreign investors some level of comfort. He would have eventually made the tough decisions on subsidies.

Yes, some believe that the problem was economics, but at the very same time many supported breaking gas deal with Israel.

Even more supported breaking ties with Israel. The significance of that is that Israel was one of major trading partners, not to mention gas lines to Jordan run through Israel.

Also keep in mind the General who led the coup is the very same man who Morsi appointed.

Morsi also tried to pass law to have absolute power, which would have worked if he was smarter to sweeten the army by following Russian example.

Increase salary for military and police and they would never remove you, Putin did just that and managed to take even stronger hold of power.

In Egypt, you have many who want a secular state, but just as many who want Sharia state. Neither are willing to compromise,

Some have already called the appointed PM to be a Jew, so i do not see Egypt moving anywhere forward.

With the latest developments this morning I would say it now looks incredibly bleak. If the Moslem brotherhood's version of events is true and they opened fire on people only praying after their freely elected president has been ousted there is no hope for a peaceful solution.

The BBC's Wyre Davies: "There are real concerns the country is descending into civil war"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23222546

The army and their strange allies, Egyptian democrats who need Egypt to rebuild an economy, need calm peace and stability to accomplish their purposes.

The Muslim Brotherhood was removed for incompetence in developing the economy and for fortifying the few and fragile institutions of Egyptian government with members of the Brotherhood. Morsi's government was strictly and exclusively a Brotherhood affair and fraternity.

Now that the Brotherhood for every good reason has been removed, it is they who have grievances - grievances that date back decades. The Brotherhood needs to upset the new order, the new stability, the new peace. The Brotherhood always have been the initiators of their agenda and are now the revenge seekers who actually believe they can regain control of the government - no matter the cost to Egypt.

It's in the interests of the Brotherhood to create disorder, chaos, insurrection while the army and middle and lower socioeconomic groups need stability and an unmolested focus on developing the country, with the economy being number one.

Anytime I'm now hearing or seeing disorder, shooting, bombings, dead or bloodied bodies, I think of how this is in the immediate interests of the Muslim Brotherhood to have this occurring and of how it intentionally harms the interim government and the mass of the secular population who need peace, stability, order.

The Muslim Brotherhood has one immediate and longer term objective - regain state power by any means. Peace, order, stability is the Muslim Brotherhood's worst enemy at this time and going forward.

[iancnx]

Just as i said earlier, now Muslim Brotherhood is calling an uprising against the army.So the History does repeat itself, it will take another dictator with force to stabilize the country or it will fall into civil war,funny enough also the view of Russian President

Sent you a PM...... Looking forwards to the thread, especially if there is a Russian President in there somewhere?

[lemoncake]

Just as i said earlier, now Muslim Brotherhood is calling an uprising against the army.So the History does repeat itself, it will take another dictator with force to stabilize the country or it will fall into civil war,funny enough also the view of Russian President

Sent you a PM...... Looking forwards to the thread, especially if there is a Russian President in there somewhere?

Yes, first you need to learn some basic manners, then you can do simple Google search

[iancnx]

Just as i said earlier, now Muslim Brotherhood is calling an uprising against the army.So the History does repeat itself, it will take another dictator with force to stabilize the country or it will fall into civil war,funny enough also the view of Russian President

Sent you a PM...... Looking forwards to the thread, especially if there is a Russian President in there somewhere?

Yes, first you need to learn some basic manners, then you can do simple Google search

PM was courteous. Bad mannered definitely not. Start the alternative thread!

[snarky66]

Well things are heating up as the body count rises.

[lemoncake]

Well things are heating up as the body count rises.

Just as expected

[lemoncake]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeDm2PrNV1I#at=108

[iancnx]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeDm2PrNV1I#at=108

Excellent link. What an incredibly intelligent young 12 year old.

So what is your opinion of what he says Lemoncake?

[lemoncake]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeDm2PrNV1I#at=108

Excellent link. What an incredibly intelligent young 12 year old.

So what is your opinion of what he says Lemoncake?

I already expressed my opinion many times, did you need help understanding it?

[iancnx]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeDm2PrNV1I#at=108

Excellent link. What an incredibly intelligent young 12 year old.

So what is your opinion of what he says Lemoncake?

I already expressed my opinion many times, did you need help understanding it?

I genuinely am trying to understand. Earlier in this thread you advocate that Mubarak was not so bad and you favour the return of a moderate dictatorship. Hmmmm not sure if any dictator could be perceived as moderate in my books.

One thing for certain is that the little boy in your video link would vehemently disagree with you. So I am confused as to your apparent support of his arguments? A couple of other posters on this thread seemingly don't understand your less than cohesive points of view. ?

[simple1]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeDm2PrNV1I#at=108

A great link and outstanding commentary by the interviewee, shame those in power did not subscribe to the same thought processes

[lemoncake]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeDm2PrNV1I#at=108

Excellent link. What an incredibly intelligent young 12 year old.

So what is your opinion of what he says Lemoncake?

I already expressed my opinion many times, did you need help understanding it?

I genuinely am trying to understand. Earlier in this thread you advocate that Mubarak was not so bad and you favour the return of a moderate dictatorship. Hmmmm not sure if any dictator could be perceived as moderate in my books.

One thing for certain is that the little boy in your video link would vehemently disagree with you. So I am confused as to your apparent support of his arguments? A couple of other posters on this thread seemingly don't understand your less than cohesive points of view. ?

Ok, i will try again and slow.

The only way the region works is when its under the dictatorship, because otherwise it breaks out into a mess that we see now.

Yes i believe Mubarack was good for Egypt, you have witnessed what happened to a freely elected president and all the rest

[antfish]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeDm2PrNV1I#at=108

They should have ask him what he thinks about that the military now shots at people and kill them just because they protest against the coup and the overthrow of an elected government.

or what he thinks about of using underage kids in propaganda.

[Scott]

The video link is not working, at least not at this time.

Let's please keep the discussion civil.

[iancnx]

Ok, i will try again and slow.

The only way the region works is when its under the dictatorship, because otherwise it breaks out into a mess that we see now.

Yes i believe Mubarack was good for Egypt, you have witnessed what happened to a freely elected president and all the rest

So you don't support the little boy who will tell you all about Mubarak's Egypt. Mubarak was removed for very good reason. So why did you post the you tube link?

As for dictatorship. Of course, free thinking people and those who have learnt histories lessons know very well that a dictatorship does not work for the oppressed. Domestic supporters (usually a minority) of a dictatorship are the ones who profit from the misery of their oppressed brothers and sisters, and international sponsors of dictatorship are the ones that profit in dollars and cents.

As I intimated earlier on in the thread, there is a lot more to this than meets the eye. The geopolitical factors including the undisputed struggle within Islam all have a hand in the Egyptian debacle which extends back to Suez and beyond.

The little boy in the video wants change with a new constitution for the Egyptian people that takes care of the Egyptian people without being undermined by international actors or islamist fundamentalists.

[lemoncake]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeDm2PrNV1I#at=108

They should have ask him what he thinks about that the military now shots at people and kill them just because they protest against the coup and the overthrow of an elected government.

or what he thinks about of using underage kids in propaganda.

Why do not you contact the reporter and express your thoughts on what they should ask

[lemoncake]

Ok, i will try again and slow.

The only way the region works is when its under the dictatorship, because otherwise it breaks out into a mess that we see now.

Yes i believe Mubarack was good for Egypt, you have witnessed what happened to a freely elected president and all the rest

So you don't support the little boy who will tell you all about Mubarak's Egypt. Mubarak was removed for very good reason. So why did you post the you tube link?

As for dictatorship. Of course, free thinking people and those who have learnt histories lessons know very well that a dictatorship does not work for the oppressed. Domestic supporters (usually a minority) of a dictatorship are the ones who profit from the misery of their oppressed brothers and sisters, and international sponsors of dictatorship are the ones that profit in dollars and cents.

As I intimated earlier on in the thread, there is a lot more to this than meets the eye. The geopolitical factors including the undisputed struggle within Islam all have a hand in the Egyptian debacle which extends back to Suez and beyond.

The little boy in the video wants change with a new constitution for the Egyptian people that takes care of the Egyptian people without being undermined by international actors or islamist fundamentalists.

I posted the link for people like you to watch and then come to their own conclusions.

[lemoncake]

The video link is not working, at least not at this time.

Let's please keep the discussion civil.

Try again, it works here for me

Link again http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeDm2PrNV1I#at=108

Edited July 9, 2013 by lemoncake