Thai Baht Rose To Its Highest Level In A Year

[nokia]

Thai baht firms on hopes of end to political crisis

Tue Apr 4, 2006 9:12 PM ET

The Thai baht rose to its highest level in a year on Wednesday after Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra offered on Tuesday to step down to defuse a long-running political crisis.

Dealers said that although an end to the political turmoil was not yet guaranteed, Thaksin's offer to resign was positive for local markets in the short term.

The baht strengthened as far as 38.35 per dollar, its strongest level since March 2005, and up more than half a percent from levels traded late in Asia on Tuesday.

"Thaksin announced last night that he would step down and this suggests things could settle down a bit and that is good for the baht," said a trader in Bangkok.

"But we still have to wait and see what happens, as he is still holding the position of prim minister."

[Maigo6]

USD1 USD : 1 : 37.09 Baht

USD5 USD : 5-20 : 37.47 Baht

USD50 USD : 50-100 : 37.92 Baht

GBP United Kingdom : 66.03 Baht

These rates are from Bangkok Banks website, currency exchange rates.....

Less than 38 Baht to the Dollar!!

Edited April 5, 2006 by Maigo6

[nokia]

A year back, many tourist-related business(guesthouse,hotels,tourist agencies) displayed both US$/Thai baht prices based on (US$1=40b). I wonder are these guesthouses still quoting US$10/400b, US$20/800b for convenience's sake and losing out on the difference???

[britmaveric]

38.2909 THB currently

[meadish_sweetball]

40 is a nice round number. So is 50 and 60, come to think of it.

[samran]

Actually Meadish, given that I earn it, I'd prefer if the baht was 30, 25, 20 to the US dollar!!

[britmaveric]

38.1633 THB today

[rainman]

37.84 today.

me not happy.

[britmaveric]

37.84 today.

me not happy.

38.1961 THB actually

[rainman]

where are you getting that from? i always check:

http://www.bbl.co.th/Bangkok+Bank/Web+Serv...es/FX+Rates.htm

now its at 37.70

[stevehaigh]

where are you getting that from? i always check:

http://www.bbl.co.th/Bangkok+Bank/Web+Serv...es/FX+Rates.htm

now its at 37.70

http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/table.html says 38.23 now.

i think the big question is where is it going from here?

http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph120.html

like more people on this board i suspect, i would like to get more bhat for my dollar, not the other way round.

[rainman]

i was looking at the cash rates, wire transfer rates are slightly better. i think it'll run downways off the graph soon (<- its not meant to be funny)

[britmaveric]

Thai Military Bank gives the best rates.

[Neeranam]

Where are the "experts" here who said the baht was going to go up to 50 by the end of last year?

[britmaveric]

End of 2006?

[rainman]

Where are the "experts" here who said the baht was going to go up to 50 by the end of last year?

broke?

[Misty]

Brings to mind one of Peter Lynch's Golden Rules of Investing:

"Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market."

(from his book, Beating the Street )

To that one might add--No one can predict the future direction of currencies.

Working for a couple of investment banks over the years, I've never seen a currency analyst get it right. They often have very plausible arguments behind their predictions, but either their timing is off, or something totally unforeseen sideswipes their predictions.

The best strategy, IMHO, is to be prepared for a movement either way. I.e., make sure your future income and future expenses are matched in the same currency.

[Gary A]

This is the rate I get when I wire transfer from the US.

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?...from=USD&to=THB

It is now 38.215 and the other link is 37.70 for 50 and 100 dollar bills.

[lovethailandlongtime]

This is the rate I get when I wire transfer from the US.

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?...from=USD&to=THB

It is now 38.215 and the other link is 37.70 for 50 and 100 dollar bills.

£1...V....THB 66.615

This is the pound at rock bottom!!!!!

Can it get any worse???

[TRIPxCORE]

Where are the "experts" here who said the baht was going to go up to 50 by the end of last year?

Exactly! Its nice to be right.

[Steve2UK]

This is the rate I get when I wire transfer from the US.

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?...from=USD&to=THB

It is now 38.215 and the other link is 37.70 for 50 and 100 dollar bills.

£1...V....THB 66.615

This is the pound at rock bottom!!!!!

Can it get any worse???

IMO - yes. Well, as we know - opinions are like a**holes......... everybody's got one (including all economists). Enough to say that I'm budgeting to allow myself to manage on £1 = THB60 in the next few years. Anything better than that I'll be regarding as a bonus.

[Gary A]

If it follows the past two year history it will be back to 40 by mid May. We can only hope so. If it continues to go up all next week it will be following the same pattern. Would I bet on that ? NOPE!

[rainman]

If it follows the past two year history it will be back to 40 by mid May. We can only hope so. If it continues to go up all next week it will be following the same pattern. Would I bet on that ? NOPE!

i heard from a reliable source that the USD will get better against the THB before the end of this month ...dont quote me on that in a few weeks though.

[Prakanong2005]

This is the rate I get when I wire transfer from the US.

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?...from=USD&to=THB

It is now 38.215 and the other link is 37.70 for 50 and 100 dollar bills.

£1...V....THB 66.615

This is the pound at rock bottom!!!!!

Can it get any worse???

Obviously a newby and notlongtime

Its been a lot lower than that since the crash of 97.

Looking at the interbank rate on www.oanda.con it seems to exceed 66THB from after circa Feb 2002 with Oct 2003 being a little lower.

After the peaks of late 97 and 98 it seemed to settle to high 50's and low 60's for a few years till 2002

Edited April 9, 2006 by Prakanong2005

[Golden Nugget]

Elsewhere in the region, the Thai baht had the biggest weekly gain in three months on speculation Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's resignation will ease political turmoil.

Thaksin April 4 said he would quit amid daily protest rallies and a political standoff that crippled his government and forced him to call early elections. The baht is up 7.6 percent in 2006 and on Friday reached the highest in more than five years.

"Investors are happy and relieved that months of protests look likely to come to an end," said Catherine Tan, a senior currency analyst at Forecast Ltd. in Singapore. "We've had euphoria after Thaksin stepped down. That's helped the baht."

Thailand's currency gained 1.8 percent to finish the week at 38.13 per dollar, after touching 38.11 on Friday, the strongest since May 2000. It may gain to 35 by the end of the year, said Tan.

Protest groups had been holding rallies demanding Thaksin leave office after his family in January scooped a tax-free $1.9 billion from selling their stake in Bangkok-based telecommunications group Shin Corp.

Thaksin said he'll stay on until a new prime minister is chosen and will retain his leadership of the Thai Rak Thai party.

Thailand's central bank will probably raise its key interest rate for the 12th time in 20 months April 10, according to seven of eight economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The Bank of Thailand will increase its 14-day bond repurchase rate by a quarter-point to 4.75 percent, according to the survey.

What will it be when I retire? 30? Back to 25? Thanks alot Georgey Boy. You knucklehead!

[rainman]

Thailand's currency gained 1.8 percent to finish the week at 38.13 per dollar, after touching 38.11 on Friday, the strongest since May 2000. It may gain to 35 by the end of the year, said Tan.

looking to get rid of the remaining tourists that weren't already scared by the bombs in the south, tsunami and street protests, huh?

[LaoPo]

"Investors are happy and relieved that months of protests look likely to come to an end," said Catherine Tan, a senior currency analyst at Forecast Ltd. in Singapore. "We've had euphoria after Thaksin stepped down. That's helped the baht."

Investors happy....?? Really?

Relieved......Really?

I think that (big) investors are scared to death what's coming up in Thailand...since nobody knows what's next. The (economical and political) unrest is far from over yet; it just started.

The higher interest rates the closer the day comes for a devaluation....

Read this:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HC30Ae04.html

for rates:

http://www.ratesfx.com/predictions/pred-thb.html

LaoPo

Edited April 11, 2006 by LaoPo

[nokia]

Rising baht hurting traders

Strong currency may start cutting into competitiveness

Rice traders have suffered from the recent strengthening of the baht, and exporters in other fields are expecting poorer performance if the Thai currency keeps escalating against the US dollar, making Thai products more expensive for global buyers.

They now fear that Thailand might not achieve its export income target, set at US$130 billion (Bt4.96 trillion) based on an exchange rate of Bt40 to the dollar, while some products, particularly shrimp and rice, could lose their No-1 position in the world market.

Thai Shrimp Association president Somsak Paneetatyasai said the stronger baht would directly reduce the country's export competitiveness, because exporters must quote higher prices.

"The government has undertaken a managed-float currency for years, which leads to export difficulties whenever there is a stronger baht," he said.

The baht strengthened to a six-and-a half-year high, briefly touching Bt37.98 to the yesterday morning. Exporters, however, prefer an exchange rate of Bt40 to the dollar, because a weak baht would help them offset extra costs resulting from steep fuel prices and higher interest rates. They say a strong baht would make products from rival countries more attractive.

Thailand is now the world's biggest shrimp-exporting country, with an average of 300,000 tonnes per year going to major export markets like the US, the EU and Japan. It also exports about 7.5 million tonnes of rice annually.

Export income is now the main engine driving the Thai economy. Without the burgeoning growth in the export account, Thailand could have recorded larger trade- and current-account deficits.

"If our exports are worth $1 million, each Bt1 increase to the dollar will result in a loss of Bt1 million," said Thienchai Mahasiri, president of the Thai Garment Manufacturers' Association. However, he said most members of his association had prepared for the situation by buying currency-hedging contracts. He said the association has targeted export growth this year of 8 per cent, to Bt145 billion. However, the strengthening baht may decrease growth.

Thienchai said the worst-case scenario was the baht's appreciation causing export income to fall 10 per cent this year.

Sumeth Laomoraphorn, president of leading rice exporter CP Intertrade, said the stronger baht would hurt all exporters.

"We have to accept that export growth this year will not be as good as expected. We didn't expect this problem," he said.

Currently, buyers are turning rice from Vietnam, India, China and Pakistan instead of from Thailand, because of Thailand's rising price.

Sumeth said that since the government had done nothing to prevent the baht from strengthening further, all that exporters could do now was try hard to promote Thai rice brands.

He said the Thai Rice Exporters' Association had targeted exports of 7.5 million to 8 million tonnes of rice this year. However, they might revise this figure downwards, if the baht continues to rise.

Sompong Kitireanglarp, president of rice exporter Ponglarb Co Ltd, said the stronger baht had decreased exporters' revenues, although they had received very low margins from their exports. He said he had lost Bt450 for each tonne of rice.

The Export and Import Bank of Thailand predicts the baht will strengthen further, reaching Bt37.50 to the dollar.

Sompong said the company's export target of 200,000 tonnes might drop to 150,000 tonnes. He urged the government to stabilise the exchange rate before the impact intensified.

Rut Subniran, chairman of the executive board of Pathum Thani Rice Mill and Granary Plc, said that at the exchange rate of Bt38 to the dollar, exporters were now facing trouble, because they had not prepared for such an appreciation.

Thai Frozen Food Association president Poj Aramwattananont said the association would conduct a meeting soon after the end of Songkran, to help exporters find a way to solve the problem.

The association has targeted export growth of 15 per cent this year, to $2 billion, but it may revise that figure after the meeting.

Pornchai Chuenchomlada, president of Thai Gem and Jewellery Traders' Association, said if the baht did not strengthen further for more a month, jewellery exporters could achieve their set targets. But if it kept strengthening, say to Bt37, they would face big problems.

"Our trading partners might then shift their orders to rival countries," he said.

Achara Pongvutitham,Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation

Tue, April 11, 2006 : Last updated 9:41 am

[Ricardo]

£1...V....THB 66.615

This is the pound at rock bottom!!!!!

Can it get any worse???

You BET it can !

US interest-rates are now higher than UK ones, trying to prop-up their deficits, which is never a good sign , for the pound.

Also all that lovely North Sea Oil, which has been helping our balance-of-payments for the past 20 years, is running-out, or at least starting-to, so that the UK is now a net-importer of oil once again.

You could say that I'm quite bearish on Sterling, I've emigrated but not yet got quite the last of my money out, so like every other Brit I'm hurting now.

BUT this can't be good for Thai inbound-tourism or exports, so sometime the BOT may stop raising interest-rates, and making things even worse. I hope.

Until then it's belt-tightening time.

[opothai]

just had an in depth report sent to me and it does not bode well for sterling or the dollar.

in short look to the monetory situations and markets back in 1970- 1973

high cost of energy, shortage of oil due to cost , gold at 800 per ounce the us printing money like confetie, and the biggest worry of all INFLATION.

and in 1972 the indexes dropped by up to 70%

we are now entering the exact same scenario as back then all we need now for a bit of confirmation is the house prices in the us and uk to fall and peoples debt and commitments will stop spending and domestic growth will stop.

this of course is a report and it could be wrong, but looking between the lines i thought it worth mentioning.

source MONEY WEEK april 2006

if you ownn houses, american shares the dollar and interests in china, they suggest taking a step back for the moment.