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it's about power.

money is part of it but not all.

One usually begets the other no?

How does one buy power or strength for military buildup etc?

Or infrastructure to broaden their economy?

I do not think anyone would call a financially poor country powerful.

North Korea, maybe? At any rate, they manage to get everyones attention fairly often!

That is actually a good example.

But they also spend every penny they have/had on their military

But even with that more of an attention getter than a true power.

They may threaten the South but the reality is they would not last long

as the South has some friends.

I guess the North does too & that may be more of their perceived power.

They sure have not done well with any range testing ;)

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china doesn't offer partnership.

one way traffic.

laugh.png

If they stop buying the USA's debt which allows the USA to print more dollars you will see how

one way it could be

The Boyz in Beijing purchased the huge volume of T-Bills etc - $2.5 trillion or more now - to impress governments and ruling elites throughout Africa, SE Asia and South America in particular that Beijing possessed a lot of U.S. money, so therefore was strong and powerful. The few gains Beijing enjoyed from that self delusion never were worth it, and now are a severe detriment to them.

Specifically, the more Beijing would dump of US$ denominated instruments, the less it would have of RMB, thus driving the value of the RMB decidedly higher, which would then kill exports. A consequence would be that Beijing would need to print more RMB, which would drive an inflation of the domestic economy to the point of the Wiemar Republic.

Further, when the massive CCP-PRC housing bubble bursts, and the overloaded financial system breaks down, the Boyz in Beijing are going to have to use their FX reserves to help bail out the crashed economy. The debt to GDP ratio already is, by reliable accounts, between 200% of GDP to 221% of it. Beijing having to use all or virtually all of its FX reserves to address its crashed economy and bankrupt financial system would leave Beijing with few or no FX reserves, the same as happened in Thailand in 1997 when the Thai Baht increased by more than 100% to the USD$ (from 25:1 to 55:1. BUST!)

The Boyz aren't about to sell US Treasury instruments they possess as it would be suicide. The Boyz need all that money and they know it.

Beijing's possession of large amounts in US Treasury instruments always was a trade-off bargain for both. Beijing got a lot of US money to impress their own sheeple with, as well as other dictatorship of poor countries in the places I've identified. The US got a lot of cheap imports and helped Beijing overcome its perennial annual trade deficits with Asean and other countries of the region. The mutuality also propped up the CCP's otherwise hollow state owned and operated economy and financial system which, as any investor knows, are built on quicksand and soon to disappear.

Trillions in individual, personal savings by the PRChinese sheeple will vanish very suddenly and quickly

That huge sound we're all going to hear any time now, coming from the East, is going to be the crashing of the entire economic and financial edifice of the CCP-PRC.

Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Model

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/recognizing-end-chinese-economic-miracle#ixzz2ZuKXPkjo

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Excellent stuff Publicus.

"In the global system, there are always low-wage, high-growth countries because the advanced industrial powers' consumers want to absorb goods at low wages. Becoming a supplier of those goods is a major opportunity for, and disruptor to, those countries. No one country can replace China, but China will be replaced. The next step in this process is identifying China's successors."

Read more: Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Miracle | Stratfor

Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

Who will be the successors? What are the implications for ASEAN?

I think Indonesia will be the next China. Huge population, low wages?

What are the US and Europe planning? Maybe they aren't looking forward too clearly?

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The Boyz in Beijing purchased the huge volume of T-Bills etc - $2.5 trillion or more now - to impress governments and ruling elites throughout Africa, SE Asia and South America in particular that Beijing possessed a lot of U.S. money, so therefore was strong and powerful. The few gains Beijing enjoyed from that self delusion never were worth it, and now are a severe detriment to them.

I don't know if that is your opinion or the articles as I did not read it but, in either case I disagree

China need not impress Instead I think it is twofold as to the reason they buy UST

1- As I said before rightly or wrongly folks all over the world still see the USD as a safe bet.

Or I should say the safest of what exists. Due to military might they always assume USA would be the last man standing economically too.

Whether that badge is justified or not need not be debated. It is what it is.

Also due to the fact that the USD is the worlds reserve currency what else would China buy???

It is obviously a logical purchase.

2-Secondly & more importantly the USA is probably China's biggest single country/customer of China made goods.

How will a broke customer buy goods? So China has an interest in lending their biggest customer $$$

sounds like a viscous circle to me & as other countries get stronger economically I see China reducing the amounts of

their loans. Who wouldn't do the same? If you own a bar & a drunk comes in every night to drink do you let him run up the tab for ever?

Edited by Scott
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The Boyz in Beijing purchased the huge volume of T-Bills etc - $2.5 trillion or more now - to impress governments and ruling elites throughout Africa, SE Asia and South America in particular that Beijing possessed a lot of U.S. money, so therefore was strong and powerful. The few gains Beijing enjoyed from that self delusion never were worth it, and now are a severe detriment to them.

I don't know if that is your opinion or the articles as I did not read it but,

in either case I disagree

China need not impress

Instead I think it is twofold as to the reason they buy UST

1- As I said before rightly or wrongly folks all over the world still see the USD as a safe bet.

Or I should say the safest of what exists. Due to military might they always assume USA would be the last man standing economically too.

Whether that badge is justified or not need not be debated.It is what it is.

Also due to the fact that the USD is the worlds reserve currency what else would China buy???

It is obviously a logical purchase

2-Secondly & more importantly the USA is probably China's biggest single country/customer of China made goods.

How will a broke customer buy goods? So China has an interest in lending their biggest customer $$$

sounds like a viscous circle to me & as other countries get stronger economically I see China reducing the amounts of

their loans. Who wouldn't do the same?

If you own a bar & a drunk comes in every night to drink do you let him run up the tab for ever?

I don't see any drunks in the business I own and operate.

Maybe you ought to change your line of work.

What happens when a gang of drunks, the Boyz, think and believe they can organize a national state owned and operated command economy and financial system? The drunks go broke in no time at all. And so does everyone else in the system.

The Boyz in Beijing need and want the U.S.'s Treasury instruments. They're nothing without them. The Boyz don't dare try to sell a one of the T-Bills they have. Both foreign and domestic capital are fleeing the CCP-PRC and FDI has sunk like the proverbial rock.

ha ha when the CCP-PRC economy and financial system crash, and no knows exactly when it will happen except to say soon, the U.S. will like it a lot more when it pays yields after the RMB crashes from 6.3 to more like 15 or worse. We'll be laughing all the way to the Treasury Building and to the Fed.

The Boyz already hate QE 'cause it devalues the dollar v the yuan (RMB). The more QE and the longer the US has QE, the more the Boyz lose on the Treasury instruments they hold. That drives the Boyz crazy because it makes 'em look as stupid as they in fact are, failing to take into account such possible - probable - factors as a decrease of demand in their export markets and the universally known fact that the U.S. always inflates its way out of an economic downturn. And this has been a loooong economic downturn, in both the US and Europe.

The Boyz are stuck holding the bag 'cause they don't know the basics of economics or finance. laugh.png

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I don't see any drunks in the business I own and operate.

Your a good reason TV should have a sarcasm icon

Otherwise it goes whoosh over your head wink.png

Anyway don't know what I was thinking in answering one of your posts.

I should already have known opinions not allowed.

Will remember next time wink.png

Carry on

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I don't see any drunks in the business I own and operate.

Your a good reason TV should have a sarcasm icon

Otherwise it goes whoosh over your head wink.png

Anyway don't know what I was thinking in answering one of your posts.

I should already have known opinions not allowed.

Will remember next time wink.png

Carry on

Fact v opinion have existed throughout the world for a long time.

The CCP-PRC systems of command and corrupt economics and finance will crash very soon - that's not in dispute.

That the U.S. and the CCP-PRC mutually benefit from Beijing's massive purchase of U.S. Treasury instruments is not in dispute either. Which benefits more can be argued.

My opinion that the 21st century fascism with Chinese characteristics that exists in the CCP-PRC is negative in the extreme can be argued.

That the Boyz would not stage a massive sell off of U.S. Treasury instruments is not in dispute either, given the fact it would be suicidal. But then both individual persons and entire countries committing suicide have in fact occurred. Whether the Boyz would commit this kind of suicide can be argued, but I wouldn't waste my time in such an argument because I have high confidence they would not.

Our dialogue is so very productive.

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Well from what I've seen in China this mix of Communism and rampant materialism makes for a very disordered society.

My personal evaluation is it is toxic. Socially, environmentally and financial.

I hope John Simpson is right when he predicts democratically elected govmt is about 7-10 years away.

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Excellent stuff Publicus.

"In the global system, there are always low-wage, high-growth countries because the advanced industrial powers' consumers want to absorb goods at low wages. Becoming a supplier of those goods is a major opportunity for, and disruptor to, those countries. No one country can replace China, but China will be replaced. The next step in this process is identifying China's successors."

Read more: Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Miracle | Stratfor

Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

Who will be the successors? What are the implications for ASEAN?

I think Indonesia will be the next China. Huge population, low wages?

What are the US and Europe planning? Maybe they aren't looking forward too clearly?

Two of the Post China-16 low-wage high production countries are more developed in this respect than the others - Vietnam and Indonesia. In both countries the shift to low wage apparel and shoe etc production has been occurring for several years. It's agreed that even though Vietnam and Indonesia have relatively more sophisticated economies than, say, Laos and Myanmar, the two can still be considered PC-16 members. Laos and Myanmar are on the investor's list.

Some other PC-16 candidates are in Sub-Saharan Africa: Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. There are also the Philippines, Sri Lanka. Bangladesh.

There are some countries in Latin America: Peru, the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Mexico. Mexico is considered only because the area in central-southern Mexico is large, populous and still relatively underdeveloped. This area of Mexico includes the states of Campeche, Veracruz, Chiapas and Yucatan, where the type of low-end development meets the PC-16 criteria. And, beneficially, it's considered that Mexico's ability to develop its low-wage regions does not face the multitude of challenges the CCP-PRC faces in doing the same with its interior as Beijing had done in its cities along the East coast. Bye-bye CCP-PRC.

Nothing is guaranteed concerning these countries as, in their aggregate, the successor countries to the CCP-PRC's effectively deceased economic model. But some undoubtedly will be successor countries. Myanmar's elites have made radical changes because they clearly have it in mind to be a successor country to the PRChina, and to distance themselves internationally from Beijing.

Indonesia has a small industrial base, so it could seem to be a perfect Post-PRChina candidate successor. However, the ruling elites of Indonesia are high caliber people who are seriously considering passing through this phase of development, aiming straight out instead to become a service economy. The question is how much importing of industrial products can Indonesia sustain. (The government is conducting a successful public campaign to significantly decrease rice consumption in favor of "brain food," which I take as a powerful sign of progress there.) Indonesia's thousand islands pose even worse challenges in this respect than Beijing has concerning developing its interior. So Indonesia might want to 'go for broke' and head straight to a service economy.

All these countries add up to a billion population but, unlike in the CCP-PRC, they can be put to work in smaller groups by their respective national governments and ruling elites. The CCP-PRC, even after 30 consecutive years of breakneck development, still has 700,000,000 people living on less than USD $5 a day.

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Excellent stuff Publicus.

"In the global system, there are always low-wage, high-growth countries because the advanced industrial powers' consumers want to absorb goods at low wages. Becoming a supplier of those goods is a major opportunity for, and disruptor to, those countries. No one country can replace China, but China will be replaced. The next step in this process is identifying China's successors."

Read more: Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Miracle | Stratfor

Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

Who will be the successors? What are the implications for ASEAN?

I think Indonesia will be the next China. Huge population, low wages?

What are the US and Europe planning? Maybe they aren't looking forward too clearly?

Concerning your last point, investors in the US and in Europe already are salivating over the 16 so-called Post China-16 (an approximate number of candidate countries). It's the new reality that a good number of countries of the global economy are ready to succeed the CCP-PRC as the source of low wage high productivity manufacturing. It's simply the number of countries taken as a whole, and which ones in particular.

Foreign capital has been fleeing the CCP-PRC for the past three years especially, as wages there increase. US and European investors and corporations will continue to do some business in the CCP-PRC, but only because the time is ripe to do business on our terms.

Some companies in the EU and the US already have begun inspecting factories and factory housing for fitness, safety, standards of work and of living etc. The CCP is enormously put out by it but knows it has to put up with it or the companies will leave to enjoy the benefits of starting over again in a PC-16 country. The naturally ornery Chinese know they have to temper their demands for control and to untangle their complicated processes to do business there.

Consumers in the EU and N America won't notice any difference as prices will stay low and quality won't be any worse for it. The only major change will be the "Made in" label imbedded into the product, e.g., Made in Myanmar; Made in Uganda; Made in Dominican Republic. We lose nothing.

Bye-bye "Made in China" and bye-bye to the CCP-PRC.

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Well from what I've seen in China this mix of Communism and rampant materialism makes for a very disordered society.

My personal evaluation is it is toxic. Socially, environmentally and financial.

I hope John Simpson is right when he predicts democratically elected govmt is about 7-10 years away.

Not a chance.

Too much chaos and too many divisions after the economy goes bust and the financial sector goes bankrupt, coming soon - very soon. All the PRChinese are going to lose their life savings, their homes, their jobs - everything.

Jump straight back to the tumult of Mao's daze, do not pass Go and pay dearly.

The Maoists already are blaming the "reformers" such as Xi Jinping and PM Li Keqiang while the reformers are blaming the Maoists. Both are blaming the Western democracies.

Of the 7-member Standing Committee which rules the CCP-PRC, Xi and Li are the only reformers. Four are Maoists and the other one goes with the prevailing winds. Xi and Li have been set up very neatly. Remember when Xi disappeared for a week late last year, before he became president? He was trying to get out of the job.

The PLA is divided between the reformers and the Maoists, which might suggest actual civil conflict again.

No, no prayer of democracy in China. Not foreseeably, that's for sure.

Just yesterday I asked a university Junior what the Chinese people are going to do hit-the-fan.gif.pagespeed.ce.6UelFDbFNJ. .

His answer was one word: "watch."

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You seem to have all the answers Pub.

PS. university junior dissidents may watch. The nouveau riche Chinese operating in the university of life may not.

True, while most Chinese will suffer in silence, there still will be a lot of 'em that will string up their CCP leaders in their localities and provinces. There's a lot of chaos and losses coming so a lot of PRChinese are going to be angry, furious. They will go after the CCPs with meat cleavers.

The CCP spends more on internal security forces than on the military. So the key is whether the security forces remain loyal to the regime. And how the army chooses up sides.

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Chinese Hackers Have A Weapon Of Mass Destruction That No One Is Talking About

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/mandiant-china-hackers-wmd-no-one-mentions-2013-2#ixzz2ayJuB5Q1

Exploiting the aging U.S. electrical grid, in a cyber-military strike, has been a growing concern of planners in the U.S. Government

A Department of Homeland Security official told the WSJ in 2010 that network inspections had "found software tools left behind that could be used to destroy infrastructure components," following hacks from Russia and China.

champ.jpg

Russia and China of course denied the reports.

"It's like (improvised explosive devices) in Iraq. Bomb makers have certain signatures, and looking at a bomb, you can tell who and where that signature comes from," said David Lacquement, a cyber security expert with Science Applications International Corporation, and formerly the Army general in charge of operations for U.S. Cyber Command.

"These (cyber capabilities) are not in the realm of make believe, they are reality," said Lacquement.

The Northeast Blackout of 2003 was the result of a "software glitch" — essentially a bug in the system — that sent a 3,500 MW power surge out into the grid. Synchronizing many of those together, along several power hubs down the East Coast, would initially cause untold damage.

A 2010 report out of North American Electric Reliability Program listed 'cyber attacks' right along with nuclear explosions as a massive threat to existing structures.

From the report:

"The physical damage of certain system components (e.g. extra-high-voltage transformers) on a large scale, as could be effected by any of these threats, could result in prolonged outages as procurement cycles for these components range from months to years."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/mandiant-china-hackers-wmd-no-one-mentions-2013-2#ixzz2ayJPCDvV

The Pentagon however is planning weather control warfare to begin to be effective by 2020 and to be fully operational by 2025. With advances in technology and meteorology however, full weather warfare control likely will be in effect by 2020.

Applying Weather-modification to U.S. Military Operations

http://csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch15.pdf

US Aerospace Forces can “own the weather” by capitalizing on emerging technologies and focusing development of those technologies to war-fighting applications.

Such a capability offers the war fighter tools to shape the battlespace in ways never before possible. It provides opportunities to impact operations across the full spectrum of conflict and is pertinent to all possible futures.

A high-risk, high-reward endeavor, weather-modification offers a dilemma not unlike the splitting of the atom. While some segments of society will always be reluctant to examine controversial issues such as weather-modification, the tremendous military capabilities that could result from this field are ignored at our own peril.

*Edited for fair Use*

Edited by Scott
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When Chinese economy goes flaccid, which I believe it will, thems that can, will escape either to HK or places further afield. Some are already doing so. Economic weakness will probably widen the rifts of simmering problems, such as anger with greedy officials, and land grabs, etc. - likely to spark upheaval. My private hope, is; upheaval in China, will enable Tibet to slip back to being a sovereign state.

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Henry Kissinger has become soft in the head about the present CCP-PRC. Bo is only minimally a reconstructed Maoist. That's Bo's problem with the current regime of reformers. Kissinger is nostalgic about his old days of 40 years ago dealing directly with Mao and Mao's personality cult, which Bo Xilai has in spades.

Why Do Some Chinese Still Love Bo Xilai?

http://thediplomat.com/china-power/why-do-some-chinese-still-like-bo-xilai/

According to official Chinese sources, Bo Xilai will soon be prosecuted on charges of bribery, embezzlement, and abuse of power. For some ordinary Chinese, however, Bo is considered a victim of a political conspiracy. Many are still sympathetic to the alleged embezzler, and only rarely in China’s history has a single accused individual caused such disruption for the country.

China14.jpg

Why are so many Chinese people still so fond of Bo, all the allegations notwithstanding? It’s an intriguing question

Bo got things done. He pursued a lot of initiatives that ordinary Chinese found praiseworthy. In addition to establishing Dalian City’s image as an exciting city to live in, which many amusedly consider no great accomplishment given how boring Chinese cities are, Bo is best-known for his “Red Culture” movement and crackdown on crime during his more recent time as head of Chongqing City.

Bo made Chongqing safer, and his Maoist-style campaigns won support from segments of the community. Officials in other provinces went to Chongqing to learn from its experience, and many copied it. Even Henry Kissinger, considered an old friend of the Chinese people, also visited Chongqing, where he publicly praised the campaign.

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The Frightening Reality About How Easily Hackers Could Shut Down The US

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/hackers-could-shut-down-the-us-2013-8#ixzz2bHeO09TX

Steve Stone, principle cyber threat intelligence analyst for Mandiant, the company that outed China's hacking unit to The New York Times told Business Insider that every Chinese hack for espionage includes the potential for kinetic actions — that is actual destruction of property.

“Typically we're talking about external attacks. An entity or individual from the outside uses a custom piece of code to break into cyber security systems,” explained Stone. “Once you’re a valid user, you're gaining all the capabilities a valid user can do.”

Right now, China's hackers are only intent on stealing information, Stone explained. They burrow into a network, increase their permissions, become a “valid user,” and then steal trade secrets.

chineee.jpg

YouTube/NTDTV

A Chinese hacking unit was exposed by Mandiant just this year.

That “valid user” can also increase or decrease water pressure, or make it look like water pressure has decreased, prompting an operator to try and increase it

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/hackers-could-shut-down-the-us-2013-8#ixzz2bHS26LMY

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Many people praise China for their ability to produce western goods fast and cheap.

Call it counterfeiting or infringement of intellectual property rights or whatever you want.

Western cyber age technology is just the same.

China doesn't want to look backward, does it?

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The CCP reformers talk a good game but when Mao's well fed grandson recently became the youngest general in the history of the PLA, they revealed themselves to be completely disinterested in actual and systemic reform. The hereditary advancement of Mao's grandson, who makes Kim Jong Un seem slim and trim, is seen by ordinary PRChinese as just another offense in an endless stream of corruption and special privilege.

Corruption and environmental pollution are the top concerns of PRChinese who criticize the government and its state owned and operated corporations. Environmental concerns are the more recent concern. Corruption and privilege, long and by far and away, have been the consistent passion of the PRChinese against the CCP.

In the article below we see that the hopes of the PRChinese sheeple that the new leadership that took control this year would at least mitigate the CCP's massive and endemic corruption are increasingly unlikely to be realized. Indeed, likely never.

The more things in the CCP-PRC change, the more they remain the same.

Ex-top official says China's Xi not serious in tackling graft

http://news.yahoo.com/ex-top-official-says-chinas-xi-not-serious-070616948.html

Chinese President Xi Jinping is not serious about fighting corruption and is more intent on maintaining his position than curing the country's "sickness", the most senior reformist official jailed during the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre said on Friday.

Bao Tong, the most trusted aide to purged reformist Communist Party chief Zhao Ziyang, characterized the new president as no different from Mao Zedong - the leader who led China into the chaos of the Cultural Revolution.

It was Bao's harshest criticism to date of Xi, who many liberals and intellectuals are hoping will emerge as a reformer, like his father, Xi Zhongxun, a liberal-minded former vice premier.

"I can only see one thing: he has continued suppression," Bao, 80, told Reuters in his apartment in Beijing.

"Besides that, I can't see what else he wants to do. So I think he probably just wants to do one thing: to maintain his stability, maintain his position."

Edited by Publicus
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"China sacks top economic official Liu Tienan"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-23628085

"Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for a crackdown on corruption, vowing to tackle it from the powerful "tigers" at the top to the "flies" at the bottom of the Communist Party."

Well at least he appears to understand the concept.

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"China sacks top economic official Liu Tienan"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-23628085

"Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for a crackdown on corruption, vowing to tackle it from the powerful "tigers" at the top to the "flies" at the bottom of the Communist Party."

Well at least he appears to understand the concept.

Power politics.

It's like Bo Xilai - he's too powerful for the rest of the leadership. Bo was going to lead a coup next year. Now he's charged with ------- corruption.

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an excerpt from one of the 'source' links Publicus mentioned in an earlier post (yes, some of us actually do find and read those articles).

"The major shift in the international order will be the decline of China's role in the region. China's ability to project military power in Asia has been substantially overestimated. Its geography limits its ability to project power in Eurasia, an endeavor that would require logistics far beyond China's capacity. Its naval capacity is still limited compared with the United States. The idea that it will compensate for internal economic problems by genuine (as opposed to rhetorical) military action is therefore unlikely. China has a genuine internal security problem that will suck the military, which remains a domestic security force, into actions of little value."
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One of the biggest ironies in the Snowden thing, is the US doesn't abuse internet snooping near as much as the Chinese do. Both the Chinese Premier and Obama know it, but it was the US which got its pants split (by Snowden's antics), and that's why the Chinese head honcho is grinning in the photo.

Frankly I couldn't care less which one does more or less snooping . . . the quantity is irrelevant.

China is not our ally and doesn't need to be required to be liked nor trusted - publicus has explained in his thousands of anti-China posts why not - and he is quite right most of the time.

The US, however, is our ally and lives by higher principles, self-imposed principles, being the 'leader of the free world'.

The pox on both of them for this.

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2016 is the consensus year.

With an enormous housing bubble and bank credit in a freeze and crisis, these are only two of the bubbles ready to burst after 30 wild years of corruption, the wrong idea to begin with of how and on what principles to organized an economy, society, political system.

China has a lot to learn and it must needs be that the Chinese have to learn it the hard way. Pity they're not the brightest bulbs on the planet. Pity them.

China and Party Will Collapse by 2016, Says Hong Kong Media

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/232752-china-and-party-will-collapse-by-2016-says-hong-kong-media/

The Chinese Communist Party will collapse in three stages in the next three years and its reign will come to an end by 2016, according to the Hong Kong magazine Frontline, which focuses on Chinese politics.

According to Frontline, the first to go will be China’s economy, in 2014; in 2015 the “political structure” of the Party will be destroyed; and in 2016, the entire society will fall apart, the article says, citing historical precedents. With a big enough trigger, the collapse could arrive earlier, it said.

Economists are seeing a reverse in global capital flows—money is moving out of China—which may trigger financial upheaval, Frontline said.

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