Thai talk: In a volatile landscape, you can't always decide the path

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THAI TALK
In a volatile landscape, you can't always decide the path
Suthichai Yoon

BANGKOK: -- The House of Representatives returns to its business on August 1, when the country's political temperature is expected to soar.

Pessimists suggest that a new round of political turmoil is just around the corner. Optimists say we will see just the normal tug-of-war.

What will really determine whether a new crisis is in the offing is the government's ability to set its priorities right, based on what it considers where the real public interest lies.

The critical issue is whether the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the red shirts can come to an agreement as to what constitute the most important pieces of legislation to be pushed through Parliament next month.

Red-shirt leaders want the proposed amnesty bills, or several versions of an amnesty proposal, to be passed first. The government's MPs think it's more important to pass the 2014 budget bill first, so that the flow of funds to run the country won't be disrupted. It's no secret that opposition to the amnesty bill is intense, and submitting it as the first order of business in Parliament would be tantamount to putting the cart before the horse.

That's not all. There is also another controversial bill empowering the Finance Ministry to borrow Bt2.2 trillion for infrastructure projects - and this will come under severe critical scrutiny in the House.

In addition, a potentially explosive bill seeking Bt350 billion for water-management schemes to prevent more disastrous flooding is also waiting in the wings. Any slight mishandling of this bill - which has already been delayed by the Administrative Court for its lack of plans to ensure public participation in the decision-making process - could spark a political confrontation by itself.

It has been suggested that ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra is pushing for the amnesty bill to be moved up from the bottom of the agenda. He is hoping the bill would speed his return home if certain provisions of the proposed law can be interpreted a certain way.

But out of the blue came a leaked audio clip that is purported to contain his conversation with a senior military officer, the content of which has effectively killed any hope of his negotiation for a quick return to the country.

The game plan has apparently been rewritten to suit the fast-changing political scenarios. Ensuring the government's stability appears to have become the top priority. That means passing the budget bill and the Bt2.2-trillion infrastructure bill must now become the first items on the House agenda, along with the anti-flood plan, which will go a long way to help keep the ruling political engine humming.

Ramming through the amnesty proposal has suddenly become too risky, especially in the face of the ongoing controversy over the calamitous rice price-pledging scheme, for which no solution is in sight. The gargantuan infrastructure and water projects aren't going to be plain sailing either. In fact, any one of these schemes that require huge loans outside of the normal budgetary process could push the government into a corner.

Ironically, the fact that Pheu Thai - with 256 seats in the House, and 40-odd more from coalition partners - can pass any bill, any time, doesn't guarantee political stability. The ongoing rice-scheme scandal is a classic example of a majority in Parliament being meaningless when public trust is lost and the credibility of the powers-that-be has been undermined through mismanagement. A crisis of confidence among members of the public on any vital issue could mean the beginning of the end for the government, no matter how many votes it is able to muster in the House.

Hence the widely held belief that a not-so-secret "weapon" is being readied by the ruling party - in case disaster should strike once Parliament reconvenes - to deal with a host of highly volatile scenarios. And that's to dissolve Parliament and call a new election, should push come to shove.

What was considered a remote possibility only a few months ago has now become a not-unlikely scenario.


-- The Nation 2013-07-25

[ramrod711]

The ongoing rice-scheme scandal is a classic example of a majority in Parliament being meaningless when public trust is lost and the credibility of the powers-that-be has been undermined through mismanagement. A crisis of confidence among members of the public on any vital issue could mean the beginning of the end for the government, no matter how many votes it is able to muster in the House.

Hence the widely held belief that a not-so-secret "weapon" is being readied by the ruling party - in case disaster should strike once Parliament reconvenes - to deal with a host of highly volatile scenarios. And that's to dissolve Parliament and call a new election, should push come to shove.

I believe that now is the time for Abhisit to step aside, with the PTP in tatters, a different Democratic party leader may be able to lure disatisfied PTP voters. My choice would be Korn, he seems to be reasonable and intelligent.

[noitom]

They're ramming, gaming, calculating, submitting and so much more. These Thais. They are working so hard to look like they are working. Everyone knows what it is all about.

[chainarong]

As the government administration of a beautiful country ,they should be ashamed to call themselves a political party, their self serving attitude ,not one can be trusted to handled the truth or the accounts of Thailand, so , why bother with them at all , one can only wounder what Thai's think, to have such a lowly turn out of talent to lead their country.