Wondering about ASEAN

[Issangeorge]

Like in any free trade agreement the Rich get Richer and the general populations of the countries tend to close the gap between them. Since Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are at the top their general population will probably become poorer and since Burma, Laos, and Cambodia are at the bottom, their general population will become richer. Of course the men who proposed the agreement no matter what country they are from are all the very rich of their country, so they will all do well.

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[Yooyung]

An interesting range of opinions but...

I don't get what happens to Filipino teachers in this whole deal. At the moment they have to do the whole work permit thing just like I do. In the future they could just stay here without a visa, not even needing to do border runs. There are already a fair number here that work without a permit. Schools could have a field day being able to employ them without all the immigration hassles. Infact, there could be so many that supply and demand could push wages down for them....ok, now I am getting ahead of myself.

[Issangeorge]

You can be sure there will be some sort of reporting mechanism. Look at the permanent residents, if I'm not mistaken they still have to report once a year and they still need a work permit.

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[Salapoo]

Imagine a Thai boss being told that he has to pay a Cambodian peasant the legal Thai minimum wage, then doing it.

Will never, ever happen. The freedom of movement and employment will not even begin to touch those without sought after qualifications.

Though on an offshoot, I'd like to know who will be checking these qualifications and how. I remember being in Israel 13 years and a local employer telling me of the influx of Russian jews being allowed entry based n being Doctors etc, then getting here and not knowing how to hold a stethoscope.

[Yooyung]

Imagine a Thai boss being told that he has to pay a Cambodian peasant the legal Thai minimum wage, then doing it.

Will never, ever happen. The freedom of movement and employment will not even begin to touch those without sought after qualifications.

Though on an offshoot, I'd like to know who will be checking these qualifications and how. I remember being in Israel 13 years and a local employer telling me of the influx of Russian jews being allowed entry based n being Doctors etc, then getting here and not knowing how to hold a stethoscope.

Ok, fair point but since when do Thais ALWAYS do things the 'official' way? I can imagine a Thai boss rubbing his hands together at the thought of having a load of Cambodian workers at his disposal that don't require ANY visa at all to stay in Thailand long term. Qualifications are all very well but the law of supply and demand is a more powerful gauge of how employers might choose to focus their radars.

[Trembly]

That's a possibility however there are issues afoot regarding international monetary transfers and the like. These guys often need to deal with compliant banks as if they start firing multiple millions and more into Western supervised banks it will raise money laundering flags everywhere. So for some on the edge flowing capital into the West is not easy.

Don't be amazed to see ( or hear of ) sack full's of currency crossing the border, I reckon that supposedly impoverished nation of Laos will be sitting on a staggering amount of Thai baht. The natural home for that will be Thailand, and Thai property in particular.

Asians will always take the attitude that property is a good bet in the long run. So I reckon they'll accept the political risk here and go for it.

There was a spending surge before the EC went to the Euro as people had to get rid of the old cash denominations, it's not directly related but I expect a surge of black money into Thailand, along with hot speculative money. In fact, one begets the other, when this market opens.

The first beneficiaries will be the Hi-So's as usual, they'll go on a spending splurge. They'll be firing corrupt money all over the place and putting the properties into family and company names to keep the cash out of the hands of their home governments.

There's a river of money coming this way, and that will cause waves in the property markets.

That's assuming that property-ownership is even on the table for non-Thais.

The process of AEC harmonisation was designed to be gradual right from the very start. The inauguration should see a 15% mutual breakdown of tariffs, progressing on and on gradually through the legal systems, tax systems, social insurance etc until they reach the mutually agreed limit of 85% economic and legal harmonisation. There will be a remaining 15% of the economy, such as that which surrounds the defence industry, that will be off limits to each other by mutual agreement. The aim, I believe, is to have achieved a full 85% harmonisation by 2030 (you may wish to look that up as my memory is a bit fuzzy on that date).

The matter of foreign property ownership is a thorny one for a number of ASEAN member nations; as such I expect the matter to take quite a while to reach the negotiating table, let alone clear it.

[theblether]

An interesting range of opinions but...

I don't get what happens to Filipino teachers in this whole deal. At the moment they have to do the whole work permit thing just like I do. In the future they could just stay here without a visa, not even needing to do border runs. There are already a fair number here that work without a permit. Schools could have a field day being able to employ them without all the immigration hassles. Infact, there could be so many that supply and demand could push wages down for them....ok, now I am getting ahead of myself.

You'll see a greater rush to remove farangs from position. There's no job security in that trade at the best of times and as soon as the Thai schools suss the new reality then there will be a mass withdrawal of jobs offered to farangs in that market.

Oh, and you can be sure the Pinoys will be queueing up to tell them.

......................................................

This was never going to be a scheme that was going to assist the Thai working class, it's all about big money and big business. My Thai pals are convinced it's going to cause mass unemployment as one put it

"It's hard enough to get our young off CandyCrush already , they're going to get a shock when they eventually go looking for a job and the Cambodians have got them all".

[Salapoo]

That's a possibility however there are issues afoot regarding international monetary transfers and the like. These guys often need to deal with compliant banks as if they start firing multiple millions and more into Western supervised banks it will raise money laundering flags everywhere. So for some on the edge flowing capital into the West is not easy.

Don't be amazed to see ( or hear of ) sack full's of currency crossing the border, I reckon that supposedly impoverished nation of Laos will be sitting on a staggering amount of Thai baht. The natural home for that will be Thailand, and Thai property in particular.

Asians will always take the attitude that property is a good bet in the long run. So I reckon they'll accept the political risk here and go for it.

There was a spending surge before the EC went to the Euro as people had to get rid of the old cash denominations, it's not directly related but I expect a surge of black money into Thailand, along with hot speculative money. In fact, one begets the other, when this market opens.

The first beneficiaries will be the Hi-So's as usual, they'll go on a spending splurge. They'll be firing corrupt money all over the place and putting the properties into family and company names to keep the cash out of the hands of their home governments.

There's a river of money coming this way, and that will cause waves in the property markets.

That's assuming that property-ownership is even on the table for non-Thais.

The process of AEC harmonisation was designed to be gradual right from the very start. The inauguration should see a 15% mutual breakdown of tariffs, progressing on and on gradually through the legal systems, tax systems, social insurance etc until they reach the mutually agreed limit of 85% economic and legal harmonisation. There will be a remaining 15% of the economy, such as that which surrounds the defence industry, that will be off limits to each other by mutual agreement. The aim, I believe, is to have achieved a full 85% harmonisation by 2030 (you may wish to look that up as my memory is a bit fuzzy on that date).

The matter of foreign property ownership is a thorny one for a number of ASEAN member nations; as such I expect the matter to take quite a while to reach the negotiating table, let alone clear it.

"That's assuming that property-ownership is even on the table for non-Thais."

There is no issue with property ownership now. You or anyother non-Thai have no problems owning property here 100% in your name.

The issues come when people don't make it a separate legal entity to the land on which it is standing.

Interestingly I remember one point I heard about a year ago. That ASEAN states plan to have common business ownership laws for non-ASEAN's that allows them to own more than 50% of a company. The knock on for Thailand would be that a company can own land, so if one Westerner owns 51%+ of a Thai listed company, and that co. owns Thai land, it is effectively owned by the Westerner.

But rest assured if something like that is ever passed it will certainly include clauses that land cannot be owned by a co. that is 51%+ owned by a non-Thai.

Bless their little socks.

[Trembly]

That's a possibility however there are issues afoot regarding international monetary transfers and the like. These guys often need to deal with compliant banks as if they start firing multiple millions and more into Western supervised banks it will raise money laundering flags everywhere. So for some on the edge flowing capital into the West is not easy.

Don't be amazed to see ( or hear of ) sack full's of currency crossing the border, I reckon that supposedly impoverished nation of Laos will be sitting on a staggering amount of Thai baht. The natural home for that will be Thailand, and Thai property in particular.

Asians will always take the attitude that property is a good bet in the long run. So I reckon they'll accept the political risk here and go for it.

There was a spending surge before the EC went to the Euro as people had to get rid of the old cash denominations, it's not directly related but I expect a surge of black money into Thailand, along with hot speculative money. In fact, one begets the other, when this market opens.

The first beneficiaries will be the Hi-So's as usual, they'll go on a spending splurge. They'll be firing corrupt money all over the place and putting the properties into family and company names to keep the cash out of the hands of their home governments.

There's a river of money coming this way, and that will cause waves in the property markets.

That's assuming that property-ownership is even on the table for non-Thais.

The process of AEC harmonisation was designed to be gradual right from the very start. The inauguration should see a 15% mutual breakdown of tariffs, progressing on and on gradually through the legal systems, tax systems, social insurance etc until they reach the mutually agreed limit of 85% economic and legal harmonisation. There will be a remaining 15% of the economy, such as that which surrounds the defence industry, that will be off limits to each other by mutual agreement. The aim, I believe, is to have achieved a full 85% harmonisation by 2030 (you may wish to look that up as my memory is a bit fuzzy on that date).

The matter of foreign property ownership is a thorny one for a number of ASEAN member nations; as such I expect the matter to take quite a while to reach the negotiating table, let alone clear it.

"That's assuming that property-ownership is even on the table for non-Thais."

There is no issue with property ownership now. You or anyother non-Thai have no problems owning property here 100% in your name.

The issues come when people don't make it a separate legal entity to the land on which it is standing.

Interestingly I remember one point I heard about a year ago. That ASEAN states plan to have common business ownership laws for non-ASEAN's that allows them to own more than 50% of a company. The knock on for Thailand would be that a company can own land, so if one Westerner owns 51%+ of a Thai listed company, and that co. owns Thai land, it is effectively owned by the Westerner.

But rest assured if something like that is ever passed it will certainly include clauses that land cannot be owned by a co. that is 51%+ owned by a non-Thai.

Bless their little socks.

Sorry, by property I meant the land that it is on as well. Thailand is not unique among ASEAN in it's stance.

[scorecard]

It is my understanding, and I'm no expert , but only professionals will be able work freely across borders.

I think this may have a negative impact on western foreigners, we will be even lower on the totem.

Certainly Thailand's dismal English skills will be a detriment, Thais may well find themselves the servants and minimum waged labor force of ASEAN

I wonder really how much of EAC Tailand will adhere to. It may well just ignore what doesn't benefit it.

Ok, but with people being able to stay indefinitely with no visa restrictions surely the temptation will be there to hire more Vietnamese/Burmese or whatever to do more manual labour etc. I understand that 'officially' only certain professions are included but supply and demand, free market economics and all that....I am certainly no expert either, just very interested.

Yes, in the AEC protocols now agreed / signed by all AEC countries, there are fixed categories of work / certain professions where all citizens of all AEC countries can easily move across countries, but obviously this is not all workers. And the said rules / regulations apply in a standard approach for all countries. If not then of course AEC would not even exist.

Would supply and demand mean that the rules and regulations (meaning the paragraph just above) are just ignored? Somehow I doubt it because all countries will be under quite strong pressure from the other AEC member countries to specifically follow the overall policies, rules and regulations.

If one country decides they will 'change' or 'ignore' the policies, regulations etc., then they need to beware that another country doesn't say, 'but you ignored the policies & regulations about XXX so we are now ignoring the policies and regulations about YYY'. If this happens AEC will fall apart very quickly.

Further, IMHO Singapore (just one example) which is very strong on following / totally respecting policies / laws etc., will very quickly speak up / demand action if another member is breaking the AEC policies, etc.

Hire more Vietnamese workers. Hire more Myanmar workers.

May not be that simple. I recently heard a discussion saying that there are many well qualified people from Myanmar who could not in the past get jobs at home so they ended up working as labourers in Thailand. Could well be that the fast and big foreign investment from Europe etc etc., will create good positions for these folks and they will go home.

A little longer term it could be that wages etc., for labour / semi-skilled workers in companies in Myanmar are attractive enough that lots of the Myanmar labourers now in Thailand also go home (after all many of them end up paying out lots of 'tea money' to corrupt Thai officials which of course seriously erodes any income advantage they might have in terms of the wages they receive in Thailand. Travel backwards and forwards also of course erodes their income.

There are also fairly large numbers of Myanmar people in Thailand because of past political scenarios pushed they to flee personal political oppression in Myanmar. Perhaps as Miss Sue Key pushes for equality / stopping of such oppressions these people will also then just go home.

AEC may well also put a lot of pressure on Thailand to stop the serious mass abuses of Myanmar people in the fishing industry (just one example, and there are of course other countries in the same situation) and force Thailand to ensure these people are paid appropriately and their human rights respected.

Vietnam. Well I can assure you that Vietnam will retain some of it's communist / socialist ideals for a long time to come (I have taught a number of MBA courses in English in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Mien City, many of the students (especially in Hanoi) are still very communist but they attend MBA programs because UN development aid funds are tied to specific education development , etc.). They talk openly about equal opportunity / sharing the wealth for all. In Ho Chi Mien City a bit different; there are many dynamic business folks who embrace capitalism but often are also very socialist.

Perhaps this means that the income gap (as Vietnam develops more) will not be as big as Thailand (just an example) and therefore Vietnamese people staying at home.

[scorecard]

It is my understanding, and I'm no expert , but only professionals will be able work freely across borders.

I think this may have a negative impact on western foreigners, we will be even lower on the totem.

Certainly Thailand's dismal English skills will be a detriment, Thais may well find themselves the servants and minimum waged labor force of ASEAN

I wonder really how much of EAC Tailand will adhere to. It may well just ignore what doesn't benefit it.

Ok, but with people being able to stay indefinitely with no visa restrictions surely the temptation will be there to hire more Vietnamese/Burmese or whatever to do more manual labour etc. I understand that 'officially' only certain professions are included but supply and demand, free market economics and all that....I am certainly no expert either, just very interested.

Yes, in the AEC protocols now agreed / signed by all AEC countries, there are fixed categories of work / certain professions where all citizens of all AEC countries can easily move across countries, but obviously this is not all workers. And the said rules / regulations apply in a standard approach for all countries. If not then of course AEC would not even exist.

Would supply and demand mean that the rules and regulations (meaning the paragraph just above) are just ignored? Somehow I doubt it because all countries will be under quite strong pressure from the other AEC member countries to specifically follow the overall policies, rules and regulations.

If one country decides they will 'change' or 'ignore' the policies, regulations etc., then they need to beware that another country doesn't say, 'but you ignored the policies & regulations about XXX so we are now ignoring the policies and regulations about YYY'. If this happens AEC will fall apart very quickly.

Further, IMHO Singapore (just one example) which is very strong on following / totally respecting policies / laws etc., will very quickly speak up / demand action if another member is breaking the AEC policies, etc.

Hire more Vietnamese workers. Hire more Myanmar workers.

May not be that simple. I recently heard a discussion saying that there are many well qualified people from Myanmar who could not in the past get jobs at home so they ended up working as labourers in Thailand. Could well be that the fast and big foreign investment from Europe etc etc., will create good positions for these folks and they will go home.

A little longer term it could be that wages etc., for labour / semi-skilled workers in companies in Myanmar are attractive enough that lots of the Myanmar labourers now in Thailand also go home (after all many of them end up paying out lots of 'tea money' to corrupt Thai officials which of course seriously erodes any income advantage they might have in terms of the wages they receive in Thailand. Travel backwards and forwards also of course erodes their income.

There are also fairly large numbers of Myanmar people in Thailand because of past political scenarios pushed they to flee personal political oppression in Myanmar. Perhaps as Miss Sue Key pushes for equality / stopping of such oppressions these people will also then just go home.

AEC may well also put a lot of pressure on Thailand to stop the serious mass abuses of Myanmar people in the fishing industry (just one example, and there are of course other countries in the same situation) and force Thailand to ensure these people are paid appropriately and their human rights respected.

Vietnam. Well I can assure you that Vietnam will retain some of it's communist / socialist ideals for a long time to come (I have taught a number of MBA courses in English in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Mien City, many of the students (especially in Hanoi) are still very communist but they attend MBA programs because UN development aid funds are tied to specific education development , etc.). They talk openly about equal opportunity / sharing the wealth for all. In Ho Chi Mien City a bit different; there are many dynamic business folks who embrace capitalism but often are also very socialist.

Perhaps this means that the income gap (as Vietnam develops more) will not be as big as Thailand (just an example) and therefore Vietnamese people staying at home.

[pinfold]

It is my understanding, and I'm no expert , but only professionals will be able work freely across borders.

I think this may have a negative impact on western foreigners, we will be even lower on the totem.

Certainly Thailand's dismal English skills will be a detriment, Thais may well find themselves the servants and minimum waged labor force of ASEAN

I wonder really how much of EAC Tailand will adhere to. It may well just ignore what doesn't benefit it.

Ok, but with people being able to stay indefinitely with no visa restrictions surely the temptation will be there to hire more Vietnamese/Burmese or whatever to do more manual labour etc. I understand that 'officially' only certain professions are included but supply and demand, free market economics and all that....I am certainly no expert either, just very interested.

Yes, in the AEC protocols now agreed / signed by all AEC countries, there are fixed categories of work / certain professions where all citizens of all AEC countries can easily move across countries, but obviously this is not all workers. And the said rules / regulations apply in a standard approach for all countries. If not then of course AEC would not even exist.

Would supply and demand mean that the rules and regulations (meaning the paragraph just above) are just ignored? Somehow I doubt it because all countries will be under quite strong pressure from the other AEC member countries to specifically follow the overall policies, rules and regulations.

If one country decides they will 'change' or 'ignore' the policies, regulations etc., then they need to beware that another country doesn't say, 'but you ignored the policies & regulations about XXX so we are now ignoring the policies and regulations about YYY'. If this happens AEC will fall apart very quickly.

Further, IMHO Singapore (just one example) which is very strong on following / totally respecting policies / laws etc., will very quickly speak up / demand action if another member is breaking the AEC policies, etc.

Hire more Vietnamese workers. Hire more Myanmar workers.

May not be that simple. I recently heard a discussion saying that there are many well qualified people from Myanmar who could not in the past get jobs at home so they ended up working as labourers in Thailand. Could well be that the fast and big foreign investment from Europe etc etc., will create good positions for these folks and they will go home.

A little longer term it could be that wages etc., for labour / semi-skilled workers in companies in Myanmar are attractive enough that lots of the Myanmar labourers now in Thailand also go home (after all many of them end up paying out lots of 'tea money' to corrupt Thai officials which of course seriously erodes any income advantage they might have in terms of the wages they receive in Thailand. Travel backwards and forwards also of course erodes their income.

There are also fairly large numbers of Myanmar people in Thailand because of past political scenarios pushed they to flee personal political oppression in Myanmar. Perhaps as Miss Sue Key pushes for equality / stopping of such oppressions these people will also then just go home.

AEC may well also put a lot of pressure on Thailand to stop the serious mass abuses of Myanmar people in the fishing industry (just one example, and there are of course other countries in the same situation) and force Thailand to ensure these people are paid appropriately and their human rights respected.

Vietnam. Well I can assure you that Vietnam will retain some of it's communist / socialist ideals for a long time to come (I have taught a number of MBA courses in English in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Mien City, many of the students (especially in Hanoi) are still very communist but they attend MBA programs because UN development aid funds are tied to specific education development , etc.). They talk openly about equal opportunity / sharing the wealth for all. In Ho Chi Mien City a bit different; there are many dynamic business folks who embrace capitalism but often are also very socialist.

Perhaps this means that the income gap (as Vietnam develops more) will not be as big as Thailand (just an example) and therefore Vietnamese people staying at home.

To be generous on the due date it all is supposed to take effect Ill give it 5 minutes before it all falls apart. Thailand will head for another military coup,...after all the generals/colonels/whoever are only protecting their own backs

[CaptHaddock]

This post is nonsense. What would China have to do with the integration of ASEAN? China is not a member. The capital controls on the Chinese yuan will remain in place for the time being. When they do change, if ever, it will be a decision of the Chinese government, not ASEAN.

I just answered a topic on the news thread related to CM, and ASEAN.......I've snipped it a little bit for this......

.................................................................

I think the majority of the population have heard of it, and have heard that it's coming down the road in 2015, but they don't understand or realize the implications. My ex did, as did her friends, but she was a business graduate and the majority of her friends were involved in business.

It will make a difference, of that there is no doubt. The money men will make a killing, and you'll see a flow of hot money pouring into the country causing hyper property inflation and the like.

You can be sure that there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese business people alone that will look to divest money out of the Chinese economy, and they will be looking at places like CM and thinking, cheap, cheap, cheap.

Those of us with experience in China know that the Chinese are always, I mean always, looking over their back. They rely entirely upon guanxi for advancement and protection, and if the guanxi shudders, it's a personal earthquake to them.

This is why there's an out flux of Chinese looking to secure overseas citizenship then returning to China to continue with their business. They're protecting themselves from upheaval. I personally know people that are doing exactly that.

Taking China out of the equation, you will see a river of money pouring in from the Hi-So's from Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the like too. They too will be looking to divest their wealth out of their home economies for the same reasons as the Chinese. We all know a lot of this money is ill gotten, the best thing to do with it is to legitimize it elsewhere.

This ASEAN structure is a Hi-So structure, you will be shocked at the affect it's going to have. BKK is already at London prices in many areas, I don't anticipate that in CM but there will be another surge in property costs and development, and that's why I said, but land elsewhere, hold just now, and cash in and move when the city gets over developed for you. Get one step ahead of the game.

CM in 10 years will be an entirely different place from today. I predict a Nimman belt around the moat and surrounding areas. Demolition and rebuild will be the order of the day, especially as so many buildings are coming to the end of their lives anyway due to the shocking build quality. When they get rebuilt, a nice little bill will be presented to us all.

Anyone that was here 10 or 15 years ago only will be looking on with dismay already, we will be the same people in 10 to 15 years time bemoaning losing what makes CM what it is today.

........................................................................................

Right, there seems to be a mind set among many people that the Thais will find some way out if their obligations. personally I think it's a serious Hi-So enrichment move for all Asia and it will go ahead.

[ChrisB87]

Imagine a Thai boss being told that he has to pay a Cambodian peasant the legal Thai minimum wage, then doing it.

Will never, ever happen. The freedom of movement and employment will not even begin to touch those without sought after qualifications.

Though on an offshoot, I'd like to know who will be checking these qualifications and how. I remember being in Israel 13 years and a local employer telling me of the influx of Russian jews being allowed entry based n being Doctors etc, then getting here and not knowing how to hold a stethoscope.

Small businesses probably won't pay Cambodians the Thai legal minimum wage, but big companies (like ItalThai) already are. Most Thais (in BKK at least) don't and wouldn't work for 300 baht per day.

[Salapoo]

Imagine a Thai boss being told that he has to pay a Cambodian peasant the legal Thai minimum wage, then doing it.

Will never, ever happen. The freedom of movement and employment will not even begin to touch those without sought after qualifications.

Though on an offshoot, I'd like to know who will be checking these qualifications and how. I remember being in Israel 13 years and a local employer telling me of the influx of Russian jews being allowed entry based n being Doctors etc, then getting here and not knowing how to hold a stethoscope.

Small businesses probably won't pay Cambodians the Thai legal minimum wage, but big companies (like ItalThai) already are.

Yes, it was a joke.

Most Thais (in BKK at least) don't and wouldn't work for 300 baht per day.

I would say that's probably incorrect. Most Thais educated to M6 probably would starting out. Almost all those educated to M3 probably would.

It would be interesting to see the nationwide statistics on education, I would guess that around 40% of the population isn't educated to M6 with around an extra 30% of the population not educated to M3. Leaving around 30% of the pop. educated to tertiary level, which actually sounds a bit high. I would guess around 15% have tertiary education.

Though seeing the statistics on unemployment (0% nationwide) seeing them probably wouldn't correlate much to the reality.