The Baht Appreciates To Strongest Level In 7 Years

[nikster]

If the baat strengthens then exports get hurt.

Obviously.

The main question is: Why is the Baht strengthening like this? This thread posed two theories - one that Thailand simply has a strong economy and other asian currencies are going up, too. The other that whatever the reason is, it's set up for a fall (Asia Times).

While I don't know if there is going to be a "sharp correction" I do know one thing: The Thai economy is not so great. Corruption is rampant - always bad for the economy on the whole. And the government is too busy cutting deals for its cronies to actually improve the infrastructure or education system so the country can't really compete. China owns the low end thanks to wages that are way lower than here, and infrastructure or skillsto compete with, say, Korea or Japan don't exist.

Tourism is of course great and won't be affected by the exchange rate [backpackers fleeing to India because they now have to pay 20 baht for pad thai don't count]. It is affected by higher fuel costs though, flights from both US and EU seem to be quite a bit more expensive than they used to be.

I am going with the Asian Times... there is no reason for a strong Baht and therefore there will eventually be a correction. Markets and traders are more agile than 1997, so it will be faster and gentler.

[xbusman]

Currencies are bought and sold just like any other commodity such as oil, rice, or gold. If more buyers want baht than dollars, it get stronger.

Some very very big players have cashed out of their business and sold to foreigners who are required to buy vast amounts of currency to pay the bill. As soon as those extraneous factors begin to move a currency the speculators move in to see what they can capitalize on short term.

Speculators and large funds are the ultimate in herd animals though, as soon as they see a successful feeding they charge over to look for scraps. Problem is, they come without looking at the terrain, focusing only on the opportunity. As soon as one of the herd looks around and get spooked by anything (corruption, non performing loans, political instability), they will all flee in terror. Its a classic setup to a 97 meltdown. Despite the best efforts to keep speculators at bay, its obviously not successful with the huge capital equity inflows that have poured into the equities market since the Shin buyout.

Look at the factors. Few top dogs sell out creating huge demand for baht to cash their chips, the baht strengthens sending a signal for speculators and fund managers to quickly jump on the wagon and pour huge amounts of money into equities causing the baht to strengthen further. In a SE asian economy which is based about 70% on exports and tourism, a strong baht destroys the ability of the economy to make a return on investment. The first group that misses its interest payment on the equities is like firing a shot over a herd of feeding ducks, last one left is invited for dinner.

Easy to see how it all works, trying to predict where and when its going is impossible. Best I can say is that it bodes very ill. Anyone who thinks they can predict currency fluctuations or the price of oil in two years is spinning tall ones.

As a point of information, tourism is not great. It was severly down last year and the demographics have changed radically. The money coming into the country from tourism is decreasing at an alarming rate. I am very impressed by the careful and detailed analysis done by TAT but you will never see the real numbers published for a variety of reasons. Suffice to say that the income from tourism is way down and a strong baht wont bring more tourists.

[Limbo]

Thanks xbusman and others for your analysis.

A great thread and written in an understandable way.

Limbo.

[chuchok]

Currencies are bought and sold just like any other commodity such as oil, rice, or gold. If more buyers want baht than dollars, it get stronger.

Some very very big players have cashed out of their business and sold to foreigners who are required to buy vast amounts of currency to pay the bill. As soon as those extraneous factors begin to move a currency the speculators move in to see what they can capitalize on short term.

Speculators and large funds are the ultimate in herd animals though, as soon as they see a successful feeding they charge over to look for scraps. Problem is, they come without looking at the terrain, focusing only on the opportunity. As soon as one of the herd looks around and get spooked by anything (corruption, non performing loans, political instability), they will all flee in terror. Its a classic setup to a 97 meltdown. Despite the best efforts to keep speculators at bay, its obviously not successful with the huge capital equity inflows that have poured into the equities market since the Shin buyout.

Look at the factors. Few top dogs sell out creating huge demand for baht to cash their chips, the baht strengthens sending a signal for speculators and fund managers to quickly jump on the wagon and pour huge amounts of money into equities causing the baht to strengthen further. In a SE asian economy which is based about 70% on exports and tourism, a strong baht destroys the ability of the economy to make a return on investment. The first group that misses its interest payment on the equities is like firing a shot over a herd of feeding ducks, last one left is invited for dinner.

Easy to see how it all works, trying to predict where and when its going is impossible. Best I can say is that it bodes very ill. Anyone who thinks they can predict currency fluctuations or the price of oil in two years is spinning tall ones.

As a point of information, tourism is not great. It was severly down last year and the demographics have changed radically. The money coming into the country from tourism is decreasing at an alarming rate. I am very impressed by the careful and detailed analysis done by TAT but you will never see the real numbers published for a variety of reasons. Suffice to say that the income from tourism is way down and a strong baht wont bring more tourists.

How dare you bring common sense and put forward your knowledge in laymans terms. please stop at once!

[Ricardo]

Have you NO concern, for the poor starving children & dependants, of those professionals who rely upon mumbo-jumbo and similar obscure terminology, to force investors to use them ? Jeez

[PeaceBlondie]

Maybe both or all three of you real experts in forex here can enlighten me more than the last three guys who admitted they didn't study forex much in their MS-economics courses. The last guy, however, did say that most currency valuations, in the short term, are controlled 99% by speculators. I think he meant, with some exaggeration, that the factors you'd expect to drive a currency, such as

1. Relative rates of inflation between countries

2. Stability of the government and the economy

3. Export and import ratios, current account deficits, govt. deficits, trade deficits, etc.

4. Productivity and quality of goods produced for internal and external consumption

5. Relative supply and demand for a given currency

don't drive forex rates. Speculation drives the rates in the short term.

On Caretaker Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya’s remarks that the appropriate level the baht should stay is 39 to the dollar, Mr. Chatchaval said it is an average level in the medium term rather than the short term.

He said currency exchange rates could not be determined because they are sensitive to economic conditions. It depended on the economic fundamental as well.

He added it is uncertain whether the capital that flew into the country was for short-term speculation or not.

Which is more likely to drive baht/dollar/sterling rates for the rest of 2006: economic conditions, fundamentals, or speculation?

[Ricardo]

Don't get fooled.....this is not about the Baht. vs. the Dollar or Euro.

This is about ALL fiat currencies.

They're all doomed....buy GOLD. :

You must know my wife - she always wants to buy gold too, without telling me where to find the money from. It must be so easy - to be focused only on the expenditure-side of the equation.

[Nutcracker]

So what to do? I need to bring in a pile of sterling dosh to buy a car in May/June. Bring it in now or wait?

Well I would bring it in now if you have it..... dont get stuck with legal trouble....bring it in $3,999 lumps so no Gov officials get wise to your cash infusion! Unless you want to pay tax bring in more than $10k :-)

You buyin something that smells funny???? just kiddin-

if you want to save money bring it in now :-)

Well, I brought my money in on Wed 12th April! You can thank me for the weakening observed in the baht that day and perhaps when the banks reopen after Songkran ........... Happy Songkran!

[Carmine6]

Well 38 may seem way out of range, but it was in the low 38's just last January through March. Sure it was 38.2_ or 38.3_ instead of 38.0_, so 7 years is technically correct, but pretty misleading.

One big difference from last year is the price for sugar in dollars is almost double what it was in early 2005. Depending on the source and year, Thailand ranks somewhere between 3rd and 6th in the world in sugar exports, so not all exporters are losing out. Thailand is also the number 1 exporter of rice in the world and prices are up about 20%-30% (in Chicago, so not necessarily world wide) since last year.

Sugar Price Chart

Rice Price Chart

As for other exports, Thailand may not be as cheap as China for many products, but my girlfriend's brother's factory ran overtime in the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year. I'm not sure what they make, but they had to finish it to ship to China.

I tried to book Thai Airways' non-stop flight out of Los Angeles for the end of next month, and it's sold out other than 1 day in the week I was looking at. This is in spite of substantially higher prices than last year.

The streets of the tourist areas may be ghost towns for all I know, but rather than there being some collusion going on among all the rich Thais, I'd say there's some pretty good reasons why it's just 1 or 2 less baht to a dollar. Now if it strengthens a bit more, then someone's got some explaining to do.

[srisatch]

One of the great troubles with trying to analyse, let alone predict, currency movements is that in addition to known variables there are a host of obscurely influential ones.

That is why the general consensus, even among the world experts is that currency forecasts are 'clear as mud'.

Asia Times article contended that the Shin sale 'underpinned' strengthening of of the baht and the rises in the stock market.Lots f ways of 'explaining' that!

I just try to keep my investments spread in the UK, US and Europe but also in Gold, Yuan, Yen and 'interesting situations'! But I cannot get away from the fact that much of my basic income comes in GBP and Euros. It is not really worth moving this around at every fluctuation-I just try to make sure that as I live here in LOS I don't have to transfer in money at disadvantageous exchange rates. On the other hand if I had 73 billion Baht I might have taken some suitcases to London and Zurich.

At the end this from Asia Times:

Violent class conflict is not impossible in Thailand, and Thaksin's divisive tactics increasingly seem to be pushing the country in that direction.

Economic blowback

Increasing political and social instability will eventually wreak havoc on Thailand's already slowing economic growth.

At least we all know that what investors hate is that scenario

Let us hope it does not come about

[xbusman]

PeaceBlondie, good questions. I dont think anyone knows the answers for sure, too many "except fors". I think those five drive currencies rates long term in reverse weight to your listing, in other words, number five is the biggest driver with number 1 the least impacting. They are also all inter related with each factor enhancing or negating other factors.

The easy way to see their relationship is to look at interest rates. In times of high inflation, interest rates skyrocket both to cool the economy and still provide a real return on capital. If goods are in high demand, interest rates rise as more factory owners chase loans to increase production.

In the end, high interest rates are what everyone chases. Everyone that is except borrowers. So when those combinations take place, and interest rates rise, money starts flowing in the direction of those increased rates and a "trend" begins to develop. The speculators live on "trends" as they have no real ability to predict. I dont think raw speculation is organized enough or powerful enough to get the ball rolling, history is littered with corpses of speculators who had the hubris to try.

The problem is, that those high interest rates have to be paid back, after all, higher rates are generally associated with higher risk. In most countries, there are all sorts of mechanisms to prevent that money from becoming a speculation frenzy, but in places such as Thailand and Brazil, that careful infrastructure and stability is sorely lacking.

So in my mind the simple answer is that obviously fundamentals are no longer driving the market, they may have started the trend but we are fast entering a purely speculative period. And realistically, for the past five years Thailand has been pretty stable despite the terrible increase in personal debt. In fact, in my opinion, Thailand is much more stable than China which I always feel is a time bomb about to go off. Its a big part of the reason I have tried to keep my business here, if China ever catches on fire there might be no stopping it. Believe me, it could.

Regarding the direction of speculation, I have a pretty good understanding of Kuhn Thaksin. As the head of government, he may be the only person in the world with detailed in depth knowledge of the Thai economy. I would guess that if he sold out, he did so at or near the top value for his investment. He got a big big big slug of baht. Now, whatever you might think, there is just not that much to buy in Thailand and he will want the maximum safe return for his money. What would you do with that money? Once you have 1000 properties in Thailand and burned through the first 100 million in baht (dont forget, your credit is sterling and interest rates have been too low so you dont pay in full, you let the banks work for you when your that big) what do you do with the rest of the Billions. Yes, thats right, you move it into the global financial community and chase returns along with other monsterously huge money. Well that game takes dollars, Euros and Yen. Now, if you also control the Central Bank that is trying to impact the exchange rate, what direction would you have them push? If I need to convert a few gazillion baht to dollars, I want that baht as high as it can go. If you think for second that he want otherwise for the "health and well being" of Thailand, you have never met a businessman like Thaksin.

I think that the baht leaving a range of 39 to 41 is driven strictly by speculation. I think that the Shin deal was big enough to drive the baht into speculation range. I think that its current strength is rooted in political/business short term goals. I think that it will take the rest of this year for things to "normalize" if we are very lucky. Its the reason I am moving my work to china for a few years. This game is too big and dangerous for my poor blood.

Knowing Thaksins business plan, its in the paper for all to see, gives us insight on his potential future. If you were in his shoes and just got forced out of office by an angry mob, what might you do with your billions of baht to effect the economy for your successors? Yes, Machavelli was an amatuer. When the time is exactly right, he will pull the plug as hard as he can, hoping to leave them a big pile of steamy shit as their reward for usurping his pedastel. From his financial tower in Switzerland, he will repeatidly refuse to come back and straighten out the disaster his replacements "caused" but eventually he will concede and return to straighten out this mess just like he did in fixing the 97 disaster.

Whatever you think about him, he is a brilliant business man. Who wants the baht strong? Someone with gazillions of them and in a position to force it outside the range. Its like watching a train wreck in slow motion. I have not even discussed the insider minions that have been selling steel companies, another national treasure, and all the other signs of big money on the move.

When your a little ant like me, it pays to keep one eye on the elephants. Hate to be in their way when they need to move.

[srisatch]

Hi XBusman

Thats why I never go on buses!

Brilliant Businessman

Not sure I agree with that.

He seems no different from the various ‘barons’ robber and otherwise that have characterized the development of capitalism-and communism.

Perceptive, opportunistic exploitation of the prevailing codes. Thaksin realized that he could manipulate the opaque financial, bureaucratic and political nexus of Thailand in such a way that, provided a lot of other people made a lot of money, he could make more; and have his businesses heftily subsidized by ‘The Thai People’. All that has been recently happening is that the adoration of the rural poor has been secured by returning them a fraction of the money he plundered from their country!!

See some of the very well informed posts on The Nation’s Discussion Boards

One of the great differences between him and figures in the US and the UK is that he has sought explicit political power also and dispensed with philanthropy. Getty, Carnegie, Gates….what could you have achieved in Thailand today??

But your general thrust is the same as mine. Beware Speculators, Manipulators and those with more information than I have as well as the power to act on it!

[Thaible]

He seems no different from the various ‘barons’ robber and otherwise that have characterized the development of capitalism-and communism.

Perceptive, opportunistic exploitation of the prevailing codes.

Huh? How can something help both capitalism and communism at the same time? I'm glad I'm not poor and trying to rationalize stealing from rich people who rightfully earned their money.

Anyways, the baht is up because the BOT has raised interest rates at a faster rate than other countries recently. Why is this so hard to understand?

[Anon999]

Currencies and commodities move up or down due to a number of factors not least when traders have cashed in on their profits from one transaction and then have to find somewhere to put that money. They cannot sit on it for the simple reason they are traders!

For example if there has been a big increase of decrease in the value of the US$ once that trend reverses they all bail out, take their profits and run. Now they have a problem what to do with it? Search for another currency which looks as though it will give them a profit either by strengthening or weakening, they don't care what it is or which way it goes. Their only interest is PROFIT. Maybe they will be short term, a day or a week or trend following traders who will keep investing money until there is no more money left in the market, that is what causes the price (exchange rate) to move.

The one basic factor to remember is that the amount of money does not really change because for every winner there is a loser so they balance each other out in terms of profit and loss. The basis of trading is that unless there is someone wanting to sell then there can be no buyer and vice versa.

Edited April 13, 2006 by Anon999

[xbusman]

Srisatch, I respectfully disagree.

The second you try to identify an "honest" rate of return, you cast a moral judgement on the act of business. People able to acheive higher rates of return are "robber" barons. All these terms are best saved for intellectual discussions at the university or wat by people who dont play the game. When was the last time you called the bank and said, "I just feel 2.5% is too much interest on my savings account for such a safe and secure investment, can you cut it back a percent or so?" What is honest and fair? In business its clearly defined as to what is "legal" and no matter what you think, Thaksin has done everything legally. Did he cheat, probably. Will he get caught? Hasnt yet and he has a lot of people wanting to catch him.

Please dont get me wrong, I am not saying what he did was right. Thats not relevant. What I am saying is that what he did in business was brilliant. Controlling people, politics, laws, and markets to make masses of money. Nothing that hasnt been done every day for thousands of years by all sorts of people in all sorts of cultures. In fact when I read your post, you describe him this way

Perceptive, opportunistic exploitation of the prevailing codes. Thaksin realized that he could manipulate the opaque financial, bureaucratic and political nexus of Thailand in such a way that, provided a lot of other people made a lot of money, he could make more; and have his businesses heftily subsidized by ‘The Thai People’. All that has been recently happening is that the adoration of the rural poor has been secured by returning them a fraction of the money he plundered from their country!!

Looks like the definition of a business genius to me.

Make no mistake about it, he has become a giant in a small pond through being just a little smarter than everyone else. Regards his stature amongst other giants of business, your right, he has a differant MOI than those we might be familiar with in Western society. I submit to you that this is more a product of his Asian nature than the lack of any altruistic paint we want to rub on people like Bill Gates or Andrew Carnegie.

The act of business is in its purest form the ability to maximize profits on an investment within the legal framework. We keep score with little tick marks on Bank statements and earnings reports. Currently, I know exactly what my score is today and I am about 1/1000000 as successful as Khun Thaksin. I think I play reasonably well, I know by his score he is brilliant. Now, being a giant in a small pond does not translate into being a giant in a giant pond. He is about to enter the major leagues, but I personally bet he can hold his own. In that game though, shenanigans will take you to jail instead of the next big thing. Just ask Ken Lay.

A discussion of Thaksin is somewhat inappropriate here other than the fact that the big money is cashing out which has to have some effect on the exchange rate. Underestimating them, their vision, or their intentions is a dangerous thing to do, especially with such a proven track record. I would prefer to learn that I am wrong about their intentions, more than their abilities. Has Thaksin bought anything with his gazillion bahts like Issarn or Laos? Has he invested in opening an aircraft manufacturer in Rayong or perhaps developing a rocket program to set satellites for IpStar? If he has, I have not heard about it, in fact, I have not heard of a single thing, not even a noodle cart on Thong Lor. That money is like the sword of Damacles, hanging over everyones head. He headed to London today, just a vacation like his last jaunt in Singapore in January? Men like him dont take vacation, they dont even understand the concept.

As things twist out of shape in the normal order it gets more and more interesting. Its not fair of me to post like this, history is so easy to see, the future so obscure. Lets hope for the best and plan for the worst.

[Johpa]

Srisatch, I respectfully disagree.

The second you try to identify an "honest" rate of return, you cast a moral judgement on the act of business. ....

I believe it was Marlon Brando in The Godfather who noted it was just business. You can only bury your head in the sand so far in proclaiming business as being independent of morals before society takes a vengence upon such beliefs, often after this false non-morality in the business world causes hardships such as hunger and the next thing you know people are marching in the streets declaring "Il n'ya pas du pain" and some Duchess responds "let them eat cake" to which the choral response from the street becomes "off with their heads" and the elite, and the far more vulnerable wannabes in the upper middle class, can't quite figure out what went wrong because it was "just business."

We have swung over the past many decades from a banality of evil to the current evil of banality, especially corporate banality. Me fears the pendulum will begin to swing back to the equally loathsome direction.

[xbusman]

Save the moral compass for churches and governments. Thats their job and what they get paid to do. Business has to operate within the morals of society as legislated. I am not saying operating without morals, just no more and no less as dictated by society within a level playing field.

If you take a minute to read the statement, I am talking about moral judgements on the act of business, not business that act with morals. Those are entirely two seperate issues.

Is it immoral to get a 100% return on your investment? Over ten minutes or ten years? Who cares really. Its not a moral issue.

The key issue here is not a question of "is Thaksin a moral man, acting in an ethical way" the question was is Thaksin a brilliant businessman. My contention is that if he operated under Thai law legally according to the ethics required by Thai society as legislated, he has been vastly successful and therefore a brilliant business man.

Remember that the Duchess was government, not business. Governments are not required to produce, only wield power. By nature, they are currupt, banal and evil, doing evil things that create starvation and pain. A discussion of Thaksin the politician might take an entirely different bend, but rest assured that he is indeed a brilliant business man.

[Johpa]

A discussion of Thaksin the politician might take an entirely different bend, but rest assured that he is indeed a brilliant business man.

Only in the same manner that some would argue that Hitler was a brilliant leader of men.

[lukamar]

some would argue that Hitler was a brilliant leader of men.

Actually if you listen to some of his (Hitler's) speeches he was a brilliant orator, But his politics were way off center and he was a nutcase.

[JimsKnight]

So what to do? I need to bring in a pile of sterling dosh to buy a car in May/June. Bring it in now or wait?

Well I would bring it in now if you have it..... dont get stuck with legal trouble....bring it in $3,999 lumps so no Gov officials get wise to your cash infusion! Unless you want to pay tax bring in more than $10k :-)

You buyin something that smells funny???? just kiddin-

if you want to save money bring it in now :-)

What the <deleted> are you talking about. I have been having my salary banked in Thailand for more than three years ($20,000/mth) and have never had to pay a tical in tax.

If every one believed everything that some people write here on the forum there would have to be a lot of dumb arse folks around.

Never mind the tax what about 20,000 K per month! Jeez! What the <deleted> are you doing for that kind of coin!? President of the Stock Exchange?

[taxexile]

just want to say thanks to all those who have contributed to this informative and fascinating thread.

[bonello]

good reading

[Ricardo]

He seems no different from the various ‘barons’ robber and otherwise that have characterized the development of capitalism-and communism.

Perceptive, opportunistic exploitation of the prevailing codes.

Huh? How can something help both capitalism and communism at the same time?

By being a good example of a "wicked capitalist", it acts as a "How To" for aspiring wicked capitalists, and an "I Told You So" to the commos. Personally I hope there is also, somewhere in-between, a category for socially-enlightened believers in the power of market-forces.

I'm glad I'm not poor and trying to rationalize stealing from rich people who rightfully earned their money.

Anyways, the baht is up because the BOT has raised interest rates at a faster rate than other countries recently. Why is this so hard to understand?

Agreed - but why does the BOT want to deter exports & tourists in this way ? Ignorance or some devious strategy ?

[srisatch]

Just a few things to keep us going!!

1. I don't think I suggested honesty was an issue. Anyway what is it?

2. It is not at all clear to me, from what I have read, whether what Mr. T did was 'Within the Law'

Unfortunately the whole point in LOS is that the 'Laws' are unclear. Lots of people, even recently in other places, see Enron/Worldphone etc. have tried to sail close to the wind, but come unstuck.

At the moment Mr. T has 'got away' with it: therefore he is brillant?? Were the Thai judicial process to pursue and convict him, he would be a brilliant criminal?

The legacy of most people who achieve and exercise power is often in the mist--some good, some bad.

3. Here there is a lot of talk about 'business'! I thought that one of the points was that, if you entered pubic office, you set aside your business interests in favour of the electorate. I cannot see how you can be a brilliant businessman because you exploit your political position!

[robint]

So what to do? I need to bring in a pile of sterling dosh to buy a car in May/June. Bring it in now or wait?

Well I would bring it in now if you have it..... dont get stuck with legal trouble....bring it in $3,999 lumps so no Gov officials get wise to your cash infusion! Unless you want to pay tax bring in more than $10k :-)

You buyin something that smells funny???? just kiddin-

if you want to save money bring it in now :-)

hi

sorry to be unaware but would you please explain this cash limit thing about bringing money into the country, does it apply to all currencies not just the $us

[robint]

Oh armchair economists

one thing economics teaches you about the economy is NOTHING.

As a pseudo science it has been discredited some 20 years ago. The value of money and its rate against other currencies is all about confidence and nothing much more. Heads it goers up, tails it comes down. Often about as logical as flipping a coin. But seriously let me give you an instance of the underlying picture.

We recently purchase a 20 ton 10 wheel truck on finance. %0% down and the rest over 4 years. Unfortunately I wasn t able to be in the country while the deal was being struck and had to leave the arrangements to my partner bless her :-()

The interest rate was quoteed as per custom at 10 % pa. They calculate your repayments as loan plus 40% divided by 48 months. Thats what you have to repay. If any of you know about APR the annual percentage rate then you will realise that this amounts to an APR of around 17% per annum, more than my credit card. Further more we cannot redeem the loan early without having to repay all of the 40% interest as well as the priciple. WHAT A RIP OFF

and of course the simple thais havent caught on to this at all and dont realise how much they are really paying.

Fortunately we are only in for 100k no big deal but an expensive lesson. never do this again.

But my point is that all kinds of commercial loans are like this in the LOS unless you have a bent bank manager. The banks can be worse in this respect. How can small businesses succeed against this kind of rapaciousness. So I am pointing to underlying confidence. It simply isnt there for those in the know. They want the fast buck now, quickly for another crash is just around the corner, especially if Mr T really does get trashed. What ever you might think of him, he kept the economy bustling and had the confidence of businesses. The alternative opposition would likely be just another set of completely unrully thieves and bandits and the poor would go back on the back burner like before. All the development funds would dry up just like the droughts in the NE. I know I live there and listen to local bigwigs.

I daresay I'll get flamed for saying this, but IMHO the devil you know blah blah. The press has been very quick to condemn Mr T but they seem to forget what he has done and I can see the effects directly on my own community up here.

but then life's not fair is it.

[Noel]

So what to do? I need to bring in a pile of sterling dosh to buy a car in May/June. Bring it in now or wait?

Well I would bring it in now if you have it..... dont get stuck with legal trouble....bring it in $3,999 lumps so no Gov officials get wise to your cash infusion! Unless you want to pay tax bring in more than $10k :-)

You buyin something that smells funny???? just kiddin-

if you want to save money bring it in now :-)

hi

sorry to be unaware but would you please explain this cash limit thing about bringing money into the country, does it apply to all currencies not just the $us

I would suggest that you ignore the advice and claims of 'forestcall'.

The saying: 'Can't see the wood for the trees' springs to mind, amongst several far more unkind (but punishingly accurate) ones...

[boppia]

I don't get it. People think 38 is going to make them choose a different place to do there business. How on earth did Thailand survive when it was 25 to the dollar? This stuff is wacky.

Seems these topics keep coming back and still I am in the dark with it all. If I get it now, I'm sure to forget it. I do believe that governments like lots of confusion in doing things because confusion = jobs. I gotta get away from the world. I just want things to be simple and work. I don't like the idea of chasing my dinero as it bounces around the room.

[usatrader]

I don't get it. People think 38 is going to make them choose a different place to do there business. How on earth did Thailand survive when it was 25 to the dollar? This stuff is wacky.

It is and was merely a matter of simple math involving inflation, historical differences as to local prices and currency conversion variances effected by numerous factors some internal some external.

Such as;

Yearly averages

Year---USD--------Pound---------Per 100Yen---Euro

1990---25.60938---45.708156------17.7449-------0

1991---25.54163---45.040347------18.9456-------0

1992---25.41097---44.868549------20.0763-------0

1993---25.33259---38.013264------22.8707-------0

1994---25.16079---38.531800------24.6517-------0

1995---24.92139---39.333752------26.6634-------0

1996---25.35869---39.580694------23.3256-------0

1997---31.07215---50.928796------25.6024-------0

1998---41.26234---68.335851------31.5838-------0

1999---37.84815---61.233366------33.4380-------40.33389

2000---40.18415---60.737796------37.2694-------37.01164

2001---44.49109---64.062237------36.6500-------39.84622

2002---43.01076----64.484783------34.3299-------40.5232

2003---41.54426---67.916268------35.8492-------47.02851

2004---39.1765---72.441658------36.8200-------48.80614

2005---40.142---72.224033------35.7418-------49.10525

4/13---38.06----66.7154----------32.1398-------46.0793

[bonello]

usatrader

where did you get this list from ?

brillant