AGING POPULATION
Plan now for ageing population, NESDB director urges
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The director of the National Economic and Social Development Board has urged state agencies to draw up a family-development plan that anticipates a highly dependent population after 2040, as academics expect Thailand to have a workforce insufficient to support the rate of consumption as the number of elderly people rises.

Speaking at a workshop on "Household Savings and Change in Population Structure" yesterday, Kosit Panpiemras said that by 2040, a quarter of Thailand's population could be over 65 years old.

The country's birth rate is dropping. That means there will be fewer working-age people in the future, affecting long-term economic expansion, said Kosit, who is also Bangkok Bank chairman.

By 2040, it is estimated that the average age of Thai males will be 75.3 years, while the female average is predicted at 81.9 years.

Thai state agencies should consider promoting sufficient savings to support life after retirement, he said, noting that changes in Japan's population structure later caused economic problems.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said that an economy that is boosted by fiscal and monetary policies does not sustain like one with manufacturing productivity, population structural planning and savings, he said.

"We have to change our mindset. We have to raise awareness of quality family planning, what the government and families should do. It's not only investment or infrastructure development," he said.

Mattana Pananiramai, a member of the National Committee for the Elderly, said that as people got older, their saving capacity declined.

If the average income per worker and rates of consumption remain the same, a rise in savings capacity needs increases in labour productivity.

At present, Thai elders depend on their children, while government assistance is insufficient.

Based on a study, Thai people's average lifetime income in 2009 was lower than their average lifetime consumption expenses. However, that consumption deficit was slight, given the higher number of working-age people.

But by 2040, the number of elderly people is projected to be more than the number of working-age people, so the consumption deficit is expected to widen significantly.

Nawaporn Wiriyanupong, a representative of the Ministry of Finance, said that based on these data, the government raised its budget for assisting the elderly from Bt10.63 billion in 2007 to Bt53.61 billion in 2012.

A rise in the number of elderly people could undermine fiscal stability, she said.


-- The Nation 2013-08-10

They haven't managed to get 20 mn people out of small hold farming yet.

Just make sure that driving laws remain unenforced, people continue to eat high amounts of sugar and smoke tobacco, and antibiotics are prescribed for every ailment... less than 10% will survive to see 65. Problem solved

I'm sure Chalerm or other of the PTP geniuses could come up with a "Thai Life Visa"for those over 70. Simply put, those "putow" unable to maintain a bank balance of B800,000 will be given an Advance to Go on their next incarnation (aka compulsory euthanasia).

I suppose they'd have to do 90 day address notification to save them hiding out in the jungle.

Apologies for confusion - I used genii as a plural for genius (radius, radii) when in fact it the plural for genie (as in a bottle). Worse still, it the name of a Thai band.

Edited August 10, 201312 yr by OzMick

"By 2040, it is estimated that the average age of Thai males will be 75.3 years, while the female average is predicted at 81.9 years."

No wonder the bar girls are starting to look so much older!

Plan ? How do you do that? Thailand knows!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ssh.

The problem that is happening all round the world, everyone is talking about it and then leaving it for the next incumbents to deal with it, so long as number 1 is provided for eh?

Until Thailand turns into a nation of savers from spenders this is not going to happen, families will have to shoulder the burden like they always have.

On my estate in almost every road there are 3 or 4 houses where there is little sign of life but I can see the big aircon's sitting idle, gardens turning back to nature and fancy SS gates. When they were bought they were fitted out with everything required, no waiting until they could afford it and dont forget the new car/pickup to go with the other two! Within 2 years the world has crashed and they never saw it coming. With this ort of rash financial behaviour how on earth can things change?

I hasten to add, this is Thailand and they are not alone its happening in many other countries as well. All of our education systems seem to be missing a subject.

Plan ? How do you do that? Thailand knows!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ssh.

The problem that is happening all round the world, everyone is talking about it and then leaving it for the next incumbents to deal with it, so long as number 1 is provided for eh?

Until Thailand turns into a nation of savers from spenders this is not going to happen, families will have to shoulder the burden like they always have.

On my estate in almost every road there are 3 or 4 houses where there is little sign of life but I can see the big aircon's sitting idle, gardens turning back to nature and fancy SS gates. When they were bought they were fitted out with everything required, no waiting until they could afford it and dont forget the new car/pickup to go with the other two! Within 2 years the world has crashed and they never saw it coming. With this ort of rash financial behaviour how on earth can things change?

I hasten to add, this is Thailand and they are not alone its happening in many other countries as well. All of our education systems seem to be missing a subject.

They haven't even remotely got towards the level of social benefits of other countries. In the end they need better trained people, to make higher value goods to move the growth of the country forward.

Unfortunately, they have become a nation of assemblers not innovators, so, moving up the economic ladder is going to get harder and harder. The population will fall, wages will rise, but what do they make?

Pickups yes, some electronics yes. But why do they make these things? Because they had low labour rates. education, education and more education is the only way, and they are only 30 years behind on that.

Why? Because the uber rich in Thailand still need a huge amount of 300 a day workers to clean chickens and shrimps.

Edited August 10, 201312 yr by Thai at Heart

some rural thai villages only have old people ,but one or two house have young ladies with old western husbands ,seems quite good ,ever been OAP home in the west ,great life in thailand

youthanasia or is it Youth-in-asia.... comes to mind.. and who would miss them ?

Why plan now when you can have another catastrophe later? Besides, think of all the press someone will get making absurd statements later on about how they will fix the problem in 30 - 90 days.

Just make sure that driving laws remain unenforced, people continue to eat high amounts of sugar and smoke tobacco, and antibiotics are prescribed for every ailment... less than 10% will survive to see 65. Problem solved

With improving health care, they will survive, but they will have a lot of health problems and this will be a further drain on society.

If there is going to be an aged population, it's a good idea to have a healthy group that can either be productive or at least not require a huge amount of assistance from the public sector.

Like every country the Government has a plan......they want you all to die as soon as possible once you are not working and putting anything in the pot !

plan will be: every farang pensionner will have to pay everything for all his thai relatives and extended family (including kwai off course)

problem closed and this way, the gov saves lots of money, so they can pocket it or waiste in other scams (rice, water, whatever)

Just make sure that driving laws remain unenforced, people continue to eat high amounts of sugar and smoke tobacco, and antibiotics are prescribed for every ailment... less than 10% will survive to see 65. Problem solved

With improving health care, they will survive, but they will have a lot of health problems and this will be a further drain on society.

If there is going to be an aged population, it's a good idea to have a healthy group that can either be productive or at least not require a huge amount of assistance from the public sector.

...... bla, bla bla ... with a contradiction within 2 sentences:

getting older --> more health problems; being older --> a "healthy group or ..." ?????

Working until dying (Thai male ~75.3 years average in 2040).. So I would like to ask you - do you accept the same for yourself?

Plan ? How do you do that? Thailand knows!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ssh.

The problem that is happening all round the world, everyone is talking about it and then leaving it for the next incumbents to deal with it, so long as number 1 is provided for eh?....

nong38 has put this question to the Thais - knowing that they are not able and the rich class doesn't want it. Your contradictory answer is .... Thais should work until dying. Problem solved

There is another aspect for the aging population. Social care, the only solution for a state with some reasonable politics.

Besides working until dying you recommend that the older people should not require a huge amount of assistance from the public sector.

What about the private sector?

All rich people and all (big) companies aren't successful because only one capable man or lady does the job allone. They depend on a good staff and all the workers. That's the reason they should share their win and wealth earned by the working staff. This includes reasonable welfare for the time after retiring. Why should the Apple workers in Foxconn and in Taiwan not have a future share on Apple's profits, to name only one example?

The same for Thailand. Why shoudn't the Thai Toyota, Tesco Lotus workers have their deserved share for their future? It's called a reasonable pension.

Another problem that seems to be out of your range of vision. Even if the minimum wage is payed nowadays (~9.000 THB monthly at best) how much would you like to save for your future with a wife and 2 children in a rented room? As a huge number of Thais only have this small earning there is no satang left for savings. If mama has a job too, there is no time and environment for children - a vicious circle.

Now to the public sector.

The state has a duty to take care for it's people. Specially in the rural areas the working people get their daily wages. That's all. The employers don't ask and don't take care for their future. The already small amount of money is needed for the daily life sometimes including the parents or relatives. It's very hard to get a job in the small cities and villages.

Tell me, how this poor people should be able to save some money for their future?

Tell me, how the old parents or relatives can get a job when even the young people don't find any job?

I think it is justified that the state support this old people. 500 Baht a month (and now a little bit more as far as I know) when over 60 years old. Many of them live in huts where you wouldn't like your dog to stay.

Scott, would you like to be in he same situation? Maybe you change your mind.

Edited August 11, 201312 yr by puck2