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Trump’s tariffs and what they show
Liberation day is an apt name for Donald Trump's policy to impose massive new tariffs across the world. His view of the United States is of a victimized colony, taken advantage of by other countries that have robbed it of jobs, industries, and money. This week, when announcing his tariff plans, he said, "Our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for more than 50 years." Trump's acolytes, like J.D. Vance and Howard Nick, parrot this view, painting a picture of a hollowed-out country with empty factories, unemployed workers, and stagnant wages. The reality is the opposite, and it is only because it is the opposite. In other words, because of America's unrivaled economic power, Trump can even attempt his tariff policy. It is US economic heft that allows him to try to force the rest of the world to bend to his will. But Trump is using American power in such a capricious, destructive, dumb way that it will almost certainly result in a lose-lose for everyone. The real economic story of the last three decades is that the United States has surged ahead of all its major competitors. In 2008, the US economy was about the same size as the eurozone. By 2023, it was nearly twice that size. US average wages were about 20% greater than the average of the advanced industrial world in 1990. They are now around 40% higher. The average Japanese person was 50% richer than an American in 1995, in terms of GDP per capita. Today, an American is about 150% richer than a Japanese person. In fact, the poorest American state, Mississippi, has a higher per capita GDP than Britain or France or Japan. And yet, Donald Trump has been convinced that all these decades, as America has moved ahead, it is actually in steep decline. His worldview seems to have been set in the 1960s, when, in his memory, America was a great manufacturing power. Another piece of that antique worldview is an overestimation of Moscow's power, which in his mind apparently remains a towering economic player on the world stage with whom he can do many important deals. Russia, bizarrely, has been excluded from any new tariffs. The reality of America as the dominant nation in the fastest-growing and most critical spheres of the global economy today, technology and services, seems to mean nothing to him. His tariffs have been calculated using a method closer to voodoo than economics. Among many mistakes, they are based solely on US trade deficits, with countries in goods that America runs huge surpluses in services, exporting software, software, services, movies, music, lore, and banking to the world – somehow that doesn't count. More than 75% of the US economy is apparently intangible fluff. Steel is the real deal. But while America is the world's dominant power, it is not so strong that it can act this irrationally. The world economy has grown to a size and scope that it will find ways around American protectionism, which is now among the world's most egregious. Contrary to Trump's stubborn beliefs, the US was in fact already somewhat protectionist, with tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers greater than in 68 other countries. Now, with these new tariffs, American protectionism is literally off the charts, with higher rates than the Smoot-Hawley ones of 1930 that exacerbated the Great Depression. In the short run, everyone will suffer. But in the medium to long run, countries will start trading around the United States. This movement has already begun. Since Trump won in 2016, the US has abandoned virtually all efforts to expand trade, but other countries have picked up the slack. The European Union has signed eight new trade deals, and China has signed nine. As Richard Sherman notes, of the ten fastest-growing trade corridors, five have one terminus in China, only to have a terminus in the United States. Countries around the world need growth, and that means trade. China will clearly be the big winner in this new world economy, because it will position itself as the new center of trade. Add to this Trump's hostility toward America's closest allies, and you will likely see Europe, Canada, and even some of America's Asian allies find a way to work with China. Donald Trump's nostalgic worldview is rooted even further back than the 1960s. He looks fondly on the late 19th century when, as he described this week, the US had only tariffs and no income tax, and America was way stronger economically than it has ever been compared to the rest of the world. This history is nonsense. In 1900, the US was around 16% of the global economy by one measure. It is now about 26% of it. American standards of living and health are much higher today. But in acting out on his nostalgic fantasy, Donald Trump might well end up dragging America back to what it was then a poorer country dominated by oligarchs and corruption, content to swagger around in its backyard and bully its neighbors. But marginal to the great currents of global economics and politics. - Fareed Zakaria -
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What Movies or TV shows are you watching (2025)
I'm really enjoying 'The City is Ours' on the BBC. It's a gritty story revolving around an OCG family, fighting for control of the drugs scene in Liverpool. Murdering rivals and stealing each other's gear. And now there's fighting for dominance going on within the family. Gripping stuff. -
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What is your idea of superfoods?
That McDonalds is popular is a given. That they have good burgers is false. None of those listed are good burger joints. The only chains that serve decent burgers are Red Robins, Smashburger, Fatburger, Fuddruckers, In and Out and Five Guys. There are countless others that aren't part of a chain that have the best. -
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I Have Seen the End”: Uri Geller Warns Trump of Imminent Nuclear Apocalypse
I don’t think Rightwing Christians prepping for the Rapture have a finger on the big button, well not yet anyway. -
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