Thailand's foreign exchange reserves drop USD 1.7 billion

[webfact]

Foreign exchange reserves drop USD 1.7 billion

BANGKOK, 7 September 2013 (NNT) - The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has reported that the country’s foreign exchange reserves as of 30 August 2013 stood at 168 billion USD or 5.41 trillion baht, decreasing by 1.7 billion USD.

It has been speculated that the lower foreign exchange reserves is a result of the central bank’s currency intervention to prevent the baht from being volatile and weakening too quickly. The BoT also used foreign exchange reserves for account adjustments and loss reduction during the baht appreciation.

The central bank’s US dollar issuance has been limited due to its policy to allow the baht to fluctuate in accordance with the market mechanism.

The baht currency has a tendency to depreciate in line with other currencies in the region following the U.S.’s positive economic data and the news that the Fed is preparing to stop using quantitative easing.


-- NNT 2013-09-07

[webfact]

RESERVES
Foreign reserves at 3-year low following baht's depreciation
The Nation


The number of customers selling gold in shops is on the increase, with the goldprice confidence index having risen for a second consecutive month.

BANGKOK: -- The country's foreign reserves have dropped to a three-year low, sparked by the recent sharp depreciation of the baht, which apparently involved intervention by the Bank of Thailand.

According to BOT data, the reserves on August 30 stood at US$168.77 billion (Bt5.46 trillion) - a fall of $1.69 billion from the week before and $3.46 billion lower than in early August.

The weaker baht will exacerbate the state of the economy, as it will raise the cost of Thai energy imports in light of increasing oil prices due to the crisis in Syria, said the central bank.

"There could be an impact [on crude prices] only for the short term, as global demand depends on the world's economy," BOT Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan said yesterday.

Oil prices may not rise sharply as the global economy will likely expand at a gradual pace, and that would not lead to high demand for oil, he said.

Siam Commercial Bank, meanwhile, estimates a surge in oil prices in the short term.

The SCB Economic Intelligence Centre said the US Congress would authorise President Barack Obama to conduct a limited US military operation against Syria, which could send Brent crude up to $125 per barrel.

If the conflict were to spread and affect regional oil producers and exporters, Brent crude could jump to $150 per barrel, it said.

However, crude prices will in any case likely rise in the short term, as Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries are expected to release some of their Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease tightening global demand for oil, the centre added.

Gold price factors

The baht's depreciation and the US Federal Reserve's likely tapering of its monetary stimulus, which could prompt huge US dollar sales, have become the greatest concerns affecting gold prices, while a conflict between Syria and the US is expected only to be only a short-term factor, according to a survey this past week by the Gold Traders Association.

"If the likely war is prolonged, that could certainly affect gold prices as a result of likely rises in oil prices. Gold is an asset to manage risks against oil. In wars, investors prefer to accumulate gold," said Kamolthan Paisalvichit, director of the Gold Research Centre.

September's gold-price confidence index rose for the second consecutive month to 63.99 points, up from 53.35 in August. The three-month index rose to 67.08 points from 55.74 a month earlier, according to the centre.

Looking one month ahead, the gold price is expected to move in a range of $1,340-$1,480 an ounce, or Bt21,000-Bt22,500 per baht weight, Kamolthan said.

He suggested that investors should focus on short-term trading and maintain close monitoring, given the number of negative factors currently at play.


-- The Nation 2013-09-07

[jaidam]

Did the reserves drop by 50 billion dollars when the fortune teller's cave was found to contain less than the Khun T thought or is that farce still factored into the foreign reserves?

http://www.news24.com/xArchive/Archive/Red-faces-over-Thai-gold-hoard-20010418

Who trusts that the foreign reserves are as stated?

[Naam]

Did the reserves drop by 50 billion dollars when the fortune teller's cave was found to contain less than the Khun T thought or is that farce still factored into the foreign reserves?

http://www.news24.com/xArchive/Archive/Red-faces-over-Thai-gold-hoard-20010418

Who trusts that the foreign reserves are as stated?

if you had followed how the lion share of Thailand's foreign reserves were generated within the last five years and how they are verified by the IMF you wouldn't present ignorant assumptions.

[theblether]

Did the reserves drop by 50 billion dollars when the fortune teller's cave was found to contain less than the Khun T thought or is that farce still factored into the foreign reserves?

http://www.news24.com/xArchive/Archive/Red-faces-over-Thai-gold-hoard-20010418

Who trusts that the foreign reserves are as stated?

if you had followed how the lion share of Thailand's foreign reserves were generated within the last five years and how they are verified by the IMF you wouldn't present ignorant assumptions.

Explain it rather than attacking then Naam.

There's this weird notion that Thailand is rich in reserves. The countries necessary infrastructure liabilities alone would wipe out every coin plus multiple billions more, that's never mind it's social liabilities.

Just look at the train service alone, and the impending total gridlock of BKK, as two examples. If you think it's bad now you ain't seen nothing yet. The country is nominally bankrupt, it's only a refusal to invest in essential spending that makes it look like it's in credit.

The tax take has to increase, and investment has to increase, or the country will go backwards. You'll know it's happening when you start seeing people walking it to work in BKK because they can't get on the MRT, and the city is a permanent car park.

That's not far away.

[Robby nz]

Did I read this right ?

Is the fall of US$1.69billion in only one week ?

Is this likely to be an ongoing thing, like another one and a half billion next week ?

[whybother]

Given that Thailand's foreign reserves are not all in $US, and that the $US as strengthened recently, wouldn't this be expected?

[worgeordie]

The most likely explanation is ,its gone in someones pocket !

just joking ,but who knows.

regards Worgeordie

[siampolee]

Slowly but surely the birds are coming home to roost. All the hallmarks of 1997 are evident, the same names are lurking in the background and the truth is non existent.

[historyprof]

Did the reserves drop by 50 billion dollars when the fortune teller's cave was found to contain less than the Khun T thought or is that farce still factored into the foreign reserves?

http://www.news24.com/xArchive/Archive/Red-faces-over-Thai-gold-hoard-20010418

Who trusts that the foreign reserves are as stated?

if you had followed how the lion share of Thailand's foreign reserves were generated within the last five years and how they are verified by the IMF you wouldn't present ignorant assumptions.

Explain it rather than attacking then Naam.

There's this weird notion that Thailand is rich in reserves.

I can see why Naam does not explain. Since Thailand has far greater foreign reserves than the UK or Australia everyone will chime in with some reason not believe the figures.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

Figures listed in millions of US Dollars.

14. Thailand 172,863 Jul 2013

21. United Kingdom 129,200 Jul 2013

36. Australia 48,068 Jun 2013

97. Laos 822 Dec 2012

[jaidam]

Did the reserves drop by 50 billion dollars when the fortune teller's cave was found to contain less than the Khun T thought or is that farce still factored into the foreign reserves?

http://www.news24.com/xArchive/Archive/Red-faces-over-Thai-gold-hoard-20010418

Who trusts that the foreign reserves are as stated?

if you had followed how the lion share of Thailand's foreign reserves were generated within the last five years and how they are verified by the IMF you wouldn't present ignorant assumptions.

Explain it rather than attacking then Naam.

There's this weird notion that Thailand is rich in reserves.

I can see why Naam does not explain. Since Thailand has far greater foreign reserves than the UK or Australia everyone will chime in with some reason not believe the figures.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

Figures listed in millions of US Dollars.

14. Thailand 172,863 Jul 2013

21. United Kingdom 129,200 Jul 2013

36. Australia 48,068 Jun 2013

97. Laos 822 Dec 2012

Well done. Now can you reconcile your "facts" with the fact that the current finance minister admits lying about official figures(ostensibly to boost morale!!!).

Naam's emotional response notwithstanding, I can see no reason whatsoever to believe a single word coming out of this governments mouth.

[historyprof]

Foreign reserve data.

https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/colist.aspx

I know everybody lies.

[Naam]

Did the reserves drop by 50 billion dollars when the fortune teller's cave was found to contain less than the Khun T thought or is that farce still factored into the foreign reserves?

http://www.news24.com/xArchive/Archive/Red-faces-over-Thai-gold-hoard-20010418

Who trusts that the foreign reserves are as stated?

if you had followed how the lion share of Thailand's foreign reserves were generated within the last five years and how they are verified by the IMF you wouldn't present ignorant assumptions.

Explain it rather than attacking then Naam.

There's this weird notion that Thailand is rich in reserves. The countries necessary infrastructure liabilities alone would wipe out every coin plus multiple billions more, that's never mind it's social liabilities.

Just look at the train service alone, and the impending total gridlock of BKK, as two examples. If you think it's bad now you ain't seen nothing yet. The country is nominally bankrupt, it's only a refusal to invest in essential spending that makes it look like it's in credit.

The tax take has to increase, and investment has to increase, or the country will go backwards. You'll know it's happening when you start seeing people walking it to work in BKK because they can't get on the MRT, and the city is a permanent car park.

That's not far away.

i posted at least a dozen times concerning a country's reserves and i am sick and tired doing it over and over gain because people are too lazy to do any homework but come up with utmost ignorant assumptions.

your

"There's this weird notion that Thailand is rich in reserves. The countries necessary infrastructure liabilities alone would wipe out every coin plus multiple billions more, that's never mind it's social liabilities."

is as ignorant as it can be when used in context with reserves.

every participant in Thaivisa has internet and therefore access to hundreds of sources which explain "reserves". start doing a wee bit of homework instead of baseless bitching and presenting ridiculous assumptions.

[Naam]

Given that Thailand's foreign reserves are not all in $US, and that the $US as strengthened recently, wouldn't this be expected?

USD has strengthened vs. Thai Baht and and a bunch of other Asian and Emerging countries currencies. Thailand's reserves do not contain any of the above-mentioned currencies, i.e. the value measured in USD does not change with that strengthening and of course it would not change with a weakening USD.

[Naam]

Foreign reserve data.

https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/colist.aspx

I know everybody lies.

true! the truth and nothing but the truth can only be derived from the postings of the resident eggsburts. looking at the hundreds (or more) postings and dozens of threads during the last six years i get the impression that retired Farangs in Thailand who do not own/run a business hope and daily pray

"Dear God, please let Thailand's economy and the Thai Baht go down the drain that my <insert currency> will buy as many Baht as in <insert year>."

and the hard core of the above-mentioned group is presenting since six years "evidence" that the downturn has already started.

an excellent example is the thread "Thai Economic Crash" which was started in january 2009 - read, weep or burst with laughter! other similar threads exist and all threads contain the mantra "any time from now... not later than <insert number of months>"

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/237598-thai-economic-crash/

[tomross46]

Creative accounting. This data is from which set of books, and whom has control of the books?

[blazes]

Yields on US Treasuries have risen substantially in the last three months. The corrupt banking institutions of Wall St and the City of London (not forgetting Frankfurt and Tokyo) have made their billions in the last four years by borrowing money in the US at rates ranging from zero to 0.25. Borrow a billion dollars from the Fed at 0.25% and then invest it in Thailand at 3%, and if your name is Goldman Sachs or whoever you are well ahead of the game.

But why invest your billion in Thailand (Indonesia, Vietnam etc etc) at 3% when you can get 3% on US Treasuries, which are supposedly a much "safer" investment? That is why money is draining away from the "Emerging Markets".

[Thai at Heart]

Did the reserves drop by 50 billion dollars when the fortune teller's cave was found to contain less than the Khun T thought or is that farce still factored into the foreign reserves?

http://www.news24.com/xArchive/Archive/Red-faces-over-Thai-gold-hoard-20010418

Who trusts that the foreign reserves are as stated?

if you had followed how the lion share of Thailand's foreign reserves were generated within the last five years and how they are verified by the IMF you wouldn't present ignorant assumptions.

Explain it rather than attacking then Naam.

There's this weird notion that Thailand is rich in reserves.

I can see why Naam does not explain. Since Thailand has far greater foreign reserves than the UK or Australia everyone will chime in with some reason not believe the figures.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

Figures listed in millions of US Dollars.

14. Thailand 172,863 Jul 2013

21. United Kingdom 129,200 Jul 2013

36. Australia 48,068 Jun 2013

97. Laos 822 Dec 2012

Well done. Now can you reconcile your "facts" with the fact that the current finance minister admits lying about official figures(ostensibly to boost morale!!!).

Naam's emotional response notwithstanding, I can see no reason whatsoever to believe a single word coming out of this governments mouth.

Considering that these numbers are retorted to and analysed by the IMF I think this is one number that can be trusted. Thank God that the central bank reports these not the finance ministry.

[Naam]

Yields on US Treasuries have risen substantially in the last three months. The corrupt banking institutions of Wall St and the City of London (not forgetting Frankfurt and Tokyo) have made their billions in the last four years by borrowing money in the US at rates ranging from zero to 0.25. Borrow a billion dollars from the Fed at 0.25% and then invest it in Thailand at 3%, and if your name is Goldman Sachs or whoever you are well ahead of the game.

But why invest your billion in Thailand (Indonesia, Vietnam etc etc) at 3% when you can get 3% on US Treasuries, which are supposedly a much "safer" investment? That is why money is draining away from the "Emerging Markets".

completely incorrect assumption! you can only borrow USD at low rates short time and invest in short UST maturities which do not yield 3% but 0.02% thereby generating a negative yield. the same applies to longer UST maturities (10Y USTyielding presently 2.93%) because a considerable loss is generated by lower bond prices.

by the way Indonesia's and Viet Nam's currencies yielded much more than 3% but their currencies lost vs. USD = zero sum game respectively loss; short term money denominated in Thai Baht never yielded 3% during the last few years.

and the reason why a lot of hot money is leaving Thailand is quite clear. Thai Baht has lost e.g. vs. USD an annualised 28% !

[blazes]

Yields on US Treasuries have risen substantially in the last three months. The corrupt banking institutions of Wall St and the City of London (not forgetting Frankfurt and Tokyo) have made their billions in the last four years by borrowing money in the US at rates ranging from zero to 0.25. Borrow a billion dollars from the Fed at 0.25% and then invest it in Thailand at 3%, and if your name is Goldman Sachs or whoever you are well ahead of the game.

But why invest your billion in Thailand (Indonesia, Vietnam etc etc) at 3% when you can get 3% on US Treasuries, which are supposedly a much "safer" investment? That is why money is draining away from the "Emerging Markets".

completely incorrect assumption! you can only borrow USD at low rates short time and invest in short UST maturities which do not yield 3% but 0.02% thereby generating a negative yield. the same applies to longer UST maturities (10Y USTyielding presently 2.93%) because a considerable loss is generated by lower bond prices.

by the way Indonesia's and Viet Nam's currencies yielded much more than 3% but their currencies lost vs. USD = zero sum game respectively loss; short term money denominated in Thai Baht never yielded 3% during the last few years.

and the reason why a lot of hot money is leaving Thailand is quite clear. Thai Baht has lost e.g. vs. USD an annualised 28% !

Sounds like you've never heard of the "carry trade".

[BlackJack]

Did the reserves drop by 50 billion dollars when the fortune teller's cave was found to contain less than the Khun T thought or is that farce still factored into the foreign reserves?

http://www.news24.com/xArchive/Archive/Red-faces-over-Thai-gold-hoard-20010418

Who trusts that the foreign reserves are as stated?

if you had followed how the lion share of Thailand's foreign reserves were generated within the last five years and how they are verified by the IMF you wouldn't present ignorant assumptions.

Explain it rather than attacking then Naam.

There's this weird notion that Thailand is rich in reserves.

I can see why Naam does not explain. Since Thailand has far greater foreign reserves than the UK or Australia everyone will chime in with some reason not believe the figures.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

Figures listed in millions of US Dollars.

14. Thailand 172,863 Jul 2013

21. United Kingdom 129,200 Jul 2013

36. Australia 48,068 Jun 2013

97. Laos 822 Dec 2012

Australia has over 1.2 trillion dollars sitting in super funds - read government - so better up date figures

[BlackJack]

Foreign reserve data.

https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/colist.aspx

I know everybody lies. alt=cheesy.gif>

true! the truth and nothing but the truth can only be derived from the postings of the resident eggsburts. looking at the hundreds (or more) postings and dozens of threads during the last six years i get the impression that retired Farangs in Thailand who do not own/run a business hope and daily pray

"Dear God, please let Thailand's economy and the Thai Baht go down the drain that my <insert currency> will buy as many Baht as in <insert year>."

and the hard core of the above-mentioned group is presenting since six years "evidence" that the downturn has already started.

an excellent example is the thread "Thai Economic Crash" which was started in january 2009 - read, weep or burst with laughter! other similar threads exist and all threads contain the mantra "any time from now... not later than <insert number of months>"

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/237598-thai-economic-crash/

i think its this year as it has a 13 in it

better still the doom will start Sept 13 2013 as there are 2 13's in it

OMG thats next Friday

[Naam]

Yields on US Treasuries have risen substantially in the last three months. The corrupt banking institutions of Wall St and the City of London (not forgetting Frankfurt and Tokyo) have made their billions in the last four years by borrowing money in the US at rates ranging from zero to 0.25. Borrow a billion dollars from the Fed at 0.25% and then invest it in Thailand at 3%, and if your name is Goldman Sachs or whoever you are well ahead of the game.

But why invest your billion in Thailand (Indonesia, Vietnam etc etc) at 3% when you can get 3% on US Treasuries, which are supposedly a much "safer" investment? That is why money is draining away from the "Emerging Markets".

completely incorrect assumption! you can only borrow USD at low rates short time and invest in short UST maturities which do not yield 3% but 0.02% thereby generating a negative yield. the same applies to longer UST maturities (10Y USTyielding presently 2.93%) because a considerable loss is generated by lower bond prices.

by the way Indonesia's and Viet Nam's currencies yielded much more than 3% but their currencies lost vs. USD = zero sum game respectively loss; short term money denominated in Thai Baht never yielded 3% during the last few years.

and the reason why a lot of hot money is leaving Thailand is quite clear. Thai Baht has lost e.g. vs. USD an annualised 28% !

Sounds like you've never heard of the "carry trade".

for many years (1978-1996) my middle name was "carry trade". the lion share of my net worth which was not generated by work but by investment which was based on carry trade.

but your argument "carry trade" has no basis. whether using "carry" (interest rate differential) or any other investment using currency#1 to invest in currency#2 to gain because of the yield difference contains the risk of currency fluctuation which can wipe out an annual yield in a matter of a few trading days, under certain circumstances within hours.

sounds like you should get acquainted with the definition and the details of "carry trade". short time THB cash never yielded during the last couple of years in excess of 1%, e.g. using USD @0.25% generated a difference of 0.75% and that per annum the bid/ask spreads of buying/selling any currency, which compress the difference, not even taken into consideration. we have seen fluctuations of 1% (and more) within hours.

Edited September 7, 2013 by Naam

[Naam]

Foreign reserve data.

https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/colist.aspx

I know everybody lies. alt=cheesy.gif>

true! the truth and nothing but the truth can only be derived from the postings of the resident eggsburts. looking at the hundreds (or more) postings and dozens of threads during the last six years i get the impression that retired Farangs in Thailand who do not own/run a business hope and daily pray

"Dear God, please let Thailand's economy and the Thai Baht go down the drain that my <insert currency> will buy as many Baht as in <insert year>."

and the hard core of the above-mentioned group is presenting since six years "evidence" that the downturn has already started.

an excellent example is the thread "Thai Economic Crash" which was started in january 2009 - read, weep or burst with laughter! other similar threads exist and all threads contain the mantra "any time from now... not later than <insert number of months>"

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/237598-thai-economic-crash/

i think its this year as it has a 13 in it

better still the doom will start Sept 13 2013 as there are 2 13's in it

OMG thats next Friday

and yesterday i saw a black cat crossing the street in front of me

[bunnaag]

Foreign reserve data.

https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/colist.aspx

I know everybody lies. alt=cheesy.gif>

true! the truth and nothing but the truth can only be derived from the postings of the resident eggsburts. looking at the hundreds (or more) postings and dozens of threads during the last six years i get the impression that retired Farangs in Thailand who do not own/run a business hope and daily pray

"Dear God, please let Thailand's economy and the Thai Baht go down the drain that my <insert currency> will buy as many Baht as in <insert year>."

and the hard core of the above-mentioned group is presenting since six years "evidence" that the downturn has already started.

an excellent example is the thread "Thai Economic Crash" which was started in january 2009 - read, weep or burst with laughter! other similar threads exist and all threads contain the mantra "any time from now... not later than <insert number of months>"

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/237598-thai-economic-crash/

i think its this year as it has a 13 in it

better still the doom will start Sept 13 2013 as there are 2 13's in it

OMG thats next Friday

and yesterday i saw a black cat crossing the street in front of me

did the clome from the left side?

[Naam]

true! the truth and nothing but the truth can only be derived from the postings of the resident eggsburts. looking at the hundreds (or more) postings and dozens of threads during the last six years i get the impression that retired Farangs in Thailand who do not own/run a business hope and daily pray

"Dear God, please let Thailand's economy and the Thai Baht go down the drain that my <insert currency> will buy as many Baht as in <insert year>."

and the hard core of the above-mentioned group is presenting since six years "evidence" that the downturn has already started.

an excellent example is the thread "Thai Economic Crash" which was started in january 2009 - read, weep or burst with laughter! other similar threads exist and all threads contain the mantra "any time from now... not later than <insert number of months>"

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/237598-thai-economic-crash/

i think its this year as it has a 13 in it

better still the doom will start Sept 13 2013 as there are 2 13's in it

OMG thats next Friday

and yesterday i saw a black cat crossing the street in front of me

did the clome from the left side?

yes, it clame from the left side. is that bad or good?