Changing China Set to Shake World Economy, Again

[onionluke]

That's interesting . Are they building a pipeline ?

[LawrenceChee]

It's shipped to Fujian terminal at the moment although the new pipeline in Myanmar will be operational in early part of next year and this will allow oil and gas shipped to Myanmar port to be piped directly to Kunming

[boomerangutang]

...whilst talking out of both sides of his mouth.

When I get time I will give you first hand experience of how foreign owned firms operate in Beijing. Specifically big west pharmaceutical companies.

The Chinese economy needs the drugs to keep the ageing work force working.

The irony of The Opium Wars.

Tell us. Sounds interesting. As is known: there are many drawbacks with pharma drugs, prescribed for either physical or mental ailments. Several studies have shown that placebos work as well or sometimes even better than expensive pharma drugs - particularly for mental conditions. And then is residue of drugs and hormones, which get flushed in to waterways (from toilets, sinks, etc) - and affect other species in weird ways we'll never know. As much as I knock the Chinese for various reasons, I sincerely hope they don't get too sucked in to using pharma drugs. They're bad news (the drugs, not the people). On the other side of the coin, if using pharma somehow gets them to use less endangered species products, then that's a good trade-off.

Incidentally, pharma drugs cause more harm and deaths than all illegal drugs combined. source: Discover Magazine.

Will do when I get time.

Incidentally, what would you agree with your doctor by way of treatment if your wife had breast cancer, your child had leukemia or your father had diabetes?

Interesting question. For physical ailments, I lean to clean diet and exercise as much as possible. Pills are a last resort, if used at all. However, my blurb above was mainly addressing drugs for mental conditions. For me, they carry much potential for abuse, stemming from mis-diagnosis, eager-beaver subscribers, and often producing more negative effects than whatever symptoms (real or contrived) they were originally prescribed for.

[Publicus]

A pipeline!

The CCP-PRC is trying to contain a property market bubble of $22 trillion that is going to burst to smithereens and a couple of people here are talking about some pipeline - a pipeline in a country, Myanmar, whose government is running away from CCP-PRC influence and control.

[LawrenceChee]

A pipeline!

The CCP-PRC is trying to contain a property market bubble of $22 trillion that is going to burst to smithereens and a couple of people here are talking about some pipeline - a pipeline in a country, Myanmar, whose government is running away from CCP-PRC influence and control.

It's interesting to see things actually being built and physically being used ...where I have been there have just been dreams :-)

It's also interesting to note how Myanmar has courted western and Asian powers at different times for their convenience and playa the diplomatic card very cleverly

I don't think at this time Myanmar would be running away too far if the railway gets approved and China runs it for the next 50 years.

The jade has to go somewhere and for now it's still Asians who value jade more than the western clients.

[NeverSure]

A pipeline!

The CCP-PRC is trying to contain a property market bubble of $22 trillion that is going to burst to smithereens and a couple of people here are talking about some pipeline - a pipeline in a country, Myanmar, whose government is running away from CCP-PRC influence and control.

It's interesting to see things actually being built and physically being used ...where I have been there have just been dreams :-)

It's also interesting to note how Myanmar has courted western and Asian powers at different times for their convenience and playa the diplomatic card very cleverly

I don't think at this time Myanmar would be running away too far if the railway gets approved and China runs it for the next 50 years.

The jade has to go somewhere and for now it's still Asians who value jade more than the western clients.

Perhaps you forget that Japan and the US have agreed to build Myanmar a deep water port near Yangon, and have both bought huge tracts of land there for industrial parks? Perhaps you forget that in the deal, Japan forgave a huge debt that Myanmar owed it?

Perhaps you forget that Thailand was counting on having that deep water port much closer to Bangkok, so that the mighty industrial parks would be built in Thailand within reach of the deep water port, but Thailand got jilted?

Myanmar is much more in bed with Western countries at the moment that China is.

[Publicus]

A pipeline!

The CCP-PRC is trying to contain a property market bubble of $22 trillion that is going to burst to smithereens and a couple of people here are talking about some pipeline - a pipeline in a country, Myanmar, whose government is running away from CCP-PRC influence and control.

It's interesting to see things actually being built and physically being used ...where I have been there have just been dreams :-)

It's also interesting to note how Myanmar has courted western and Asian powers at different times for their convenience and playa the diplomatic card very cleverly

I don't think at this time Myanmar would be running away too far if the railway gets approved and China runs it for the next 50 years.

The jade has to go somewhere and for now it's still Asians who value jade more than the western clients.

It's an old canard that Asians are so diplomatically savvy that they play Western governments off against one another like ping pong.

We get what we want from you guys, whether you know it or not. Sophistication is not an exclusive quality.

Neither are Asians as "mysterious" or "inscrutable" to the West as 100 years ago, The world has become radically globalized since then and the interaction continues to be both instructive to those who can learn and exciting to everyone.

The vice-versa is true but you guys don't learn well and you love to hang onto your bogusly self-satisfying, vacuous myths.

[LawrenceChee]

A pipeline!

The CCP-PRC is trying to contain a property market bubble of $22 trillion that is going to burst to smithereens and a couple of people here are talking about some pipeline - a pipeline in a country, Myanmar, whose government is running away from CCP-PRC influence and control.

It's interesting to see things actually being built and physically being used ...where I have been there have just been dreams :-)

It's also interesting to note how Myanmar has courted western and Asian powers at different times for their convenience and playa the diplomatic card very cleverly

I don't think at this time Myanmar would be running away too far if the railway gets approved and China runs it for the next 50 years.

The jade has to go somewhere and for now it's still Asians who value jade more than the western clients.

Perhaps you forget that Japan and the US have agreed to build Myanmar a deep water port near Yangon, and have both bought huge tracts of land there for industrial parks? Perhaps you forget that in the deal, Japan forgave a huge debt that Myanmar owed it?

Perhaps you forget that Thailand was counting on having that deep water port much closer to Bangkok, so that the mighty industrial parks would be built in Thailand within reach of the deep water port, but Thailand got jilted?

Myanmar is much more in bed with Western countries at the moment that China is.

Myanmar has played the smart card, got the loan pardoned and the Japanese were expecting a plump mobile contract but nope went to the Qataris and Norwegians.

Japanese did gets rights to a Nissan factory but wait Ford has already opened their first showroom ...probably construction later with Komatsu but caterpillar has been used extensively in the new projects for now.

Chinese building a railway, a new deep sea port by the Japanese.

New hotels built by the Asians ...I know people will tell me the brand likes best western, Novotel etc are western and managed but the owners from china and HK.

Those in the hotel business will know almost all international brands Marriott Hyatt Hilton and the likes don't own the building they operate in just the management contract. Fact Marriott probably owns 5 hotel buildings out of the 3500 managed by them.

Thailand got what they deserved for choosing a wrong locations and underestimating their opponents

You are right ...Myanmar didn't choose China exclusively as they have learnt diversity is the key ..smart they are !

[LawrenceChee]

A pipeline!

The CCP-PRC is trying to contain a property market bubble of $22 trillion that is going to burst to smithereens and a couple of people here are talking about some pipeline - a pipeline in a country, Myanmar, whose government is running away from CCP-PRC influence and control.

It's interesting to see things actually being built and physically being used ...where I have been there have just been dreams :-)

It's also interesting to note how Myanmar has courted western and Asian powers at different times for their convenience and playa the diplomatic card very cleverly

I don't think at this time Myanmar would be running away too far if the railway gets approved and China runs it for the next 50 years.

The jade has to go somewhere and for now it's still Asians who value jade more than the western clients.

It's an old canard that Asians are so diplomatically savvy that they play Western governments off against one another like ping pong.

We get what we want from you guys, whether you know it or not. Sophistication is not an exclusive quality.

Neither are Asians as "mysterious" or "inscrutable" to the West as 100 years ago, The world has become radically globalized since then and the interaction continues to be both instructive to those who can learn and exciting to everyone.

The vice-versa is true but you guys don't learn well and you love to hang onto your bogusly self-satisfying, vacuous myths.

Oh yes ! I remember the TV moment when you have an visibly excited Obama hugging Ms Aung at the lawn looking like a hero not understanding the visible discomfort she had as people don't hug in Myanmar ...very sophisticated indeed for the world to see :-) he must have got something we don't know about I'm sure.

The east is not mysterious at all although i "blame" the Irish and the fine writers who conjure the Far East as exotic ...a little disappointing when they realized we fart, eat and sleep like everyone else...granted we do eat more rice ...I agree with you the world has for more globalize do and the net has cleared a lot of the mysteries of travel and culture

Happy Sunday !

[Publicus]

A pipeline!

The CCP-PRC is trying to contain a property market bubble of $22 trillion that is going to burst to smithereens and a couple of people here are talking about some pipeline - a pipeline in a country, Myanmar, whose government is running away from CCP-PRC influence and control.

It's interesting to see things actually being built and physically being used ...where I have been there have just been dreams :-)

It's also interesting to note how Myanmar has courted western and Asian powers at different times for their convenience and playa the diplomatic card very cleverly

I don't think at this time Myanmar would be running away too far if the railway gets approved and China runs it for the next 50 years.

The jade has to go somewhere and for now it's still Asians who value jade more than the western clients.

It's an old canard that Asians are so diplomatically savvy that they play Western governments off against one another like ping pong.

We get what we want from you guys, whether you know it or not. Sophistication is not an exclusive quality.

Neither are Asians as "mysterious" or "inscrutable" to the West as 100 years ago, The world has become radically globalized since then and the interaction continues to be both instructive to those who can learn and exciting to everyone.

The vice-versa is true but you guys don't learn well and you love to hang onto your bogusly self-satisfying, vacuous myths.

Oh yes ! I remember the TV moment when you have an visibly excited Obama hugging Ms Aung at the lawn looking like a hero not understanding the visible discomfort she had as people don't hug in Myanmar ...very sophisticated indeed for the world to see :-) he must have got something we don't know about I'm sure.

The east is not mysterious at all although i "blame" the Irish and the fine writers who conjure the Far East as exotic ...a little disappointing when they realized we fart, eat and sleep like everyone else...granted we do eat more rice ...I agree with you the world has for more globalize do and the net has cleared a lot of the mysteries of travel and culture

Happy Sunday !

The hug was agreed beforehand to the benefit of Prez Obama, who pried Burma open and reconnected it to the US by initiating two Saffron Revolutions that caused the military regime to capitulate and to move away from the influence and control of the CCP-PRC.

The State Department and US scholars, institutions and a succession of Americans for more than 100 years experience in Burma and in SE Asia know the local, i.e., national, customs and mores of the people of a given country.

We know, for example, that in Thailand you don't show the soles of your feet to anyone, or don't touch anyone with your foot - and so much else. Any US expat in Thailand knows that and every foreign service professional at the US Embassy knows that, up to the Ambassador. US-Thai relations began in 1833.

You're missing al lot here because sophistication is not the property of only Old World peoples or of any one particular ancient ethnicity that thinks it's hot stuff.

The US now has veto rights in Myanmar over CCP-PRC state corporations doing businesses there. And much to the misery of Beijing, a half dozen human rights groups are moving into Myanmar to take the lead in conditions there, which is always bad news for Beijing.

Already US corporations and individuals are investing in the state owned Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise, so Beijing can have its pipeline but is going to have to pay big bucks to its owners to get the oil. Beijing can have its railway connection but is going to have to pay through the nose for it and comply with tight regulation and limitations. Beijing is going to have to comply with strict requirements pertaining to labor, environment, taxes.

Have you hugged anyone today?

[boomerangutang]

Part of China's many-tiered economic plans is to develop as much influence and commercial interaction with SE Asia as possible. Key to doing this is getting top-notch infrastructure built: highways, rails, ports, pipelines, etc. The 2.2 trillion baht eagerly sought by the Shinawatre gov't is a key component. 90% of that is earmarked for a speedo train going north/south (eventually to/from China).

Additionally, the facing border towns of Tachilek (Burma) and Mae Sai (Thailand) are each building foot thick concrete hwys stretching N/S. They connect with a newly constructed bridge. Part of that hwy, which was in good condition further south, was ripped up and a similar foot-thick concrete hwy was put in its place. All the hwy construction north and south of the border has identical specs, including 15 mm re-bar spaced at 1 ft. It's a no-brainer to see that the specs are dictated by Beijing. The money spent on these projects is from the respective countries' borrowing (from Chinese banks?), but the main beneficiaries will be Chinese commercial interests. Prez Eisenhower, during the 1950's, oversaw turbo-charged construction of the Interstate Hwy System in the US which, he said, was mainly for defense purposes. Could movement of military gear be an added factor re; the frantic construction of infrastructure that China wants to see throughout SE Asia?

Already, nearly all large corps and nearly all politicians in Thailand are Chinese-Thai. I can foresee a future when SE countries will segue to individually becoming something like "Autonomous Region of ________" beholden to Beijing. Though, by that time, Beijing may not be China's capital, as it may be covered in Gobi sand.

Edited October 6, 2013 by boomerangutang

[Scott]

It would seem that whoever is correct -- whether China's economy continues to gather steam and move forward, or crashes and burns -- it is going to shake the world economic scene.

[Publicus]

Part of China's many-tiered economic plans is to develop as much influence and commercial interaction with SE Asia as possible. Key to doing this is getting top-notch infrastructure built: highways, rails, ports, pipelines, etc. The 2.2 trillion baht eagerly sought by the Shinawatre gov't is a key component. 90% of that is earmarked for a speedo train going north/south (eventually to/from China).

Additionally, the facing border towns of Tachilek (Burma) and Mae Sai (Thailand) are each building foot thick concrete hwys stretching N/S. They connect with a newly constructed bridge. Part of that hwy, which was in good condition further south, was ripped up and a similar foot-thick concrete hwy was put in its place. All the hwy construction north and south of the border has identical specs, including 15 mm re-bar spaced at 1 ft. It's a no-brainer to see that the specs are dictated by Beijing. The money spent on these projects is from the respective countries' borrowing (from Chinese banks?), but the main beneficiaries will be Chinese commercial interests. Prez Eisenhower, during the 1950's, oversaw turbo-charged construction of the Interstate Hwy System in the US which, he said, was mainly for defense purposes. Could movement of military gear be an added factor re; the frantic construction of infrastructure that China wants to see throughout SE Asia?

Already, nearly all large corps and nearly all politicians in Thailand are Chinese-Thai. I can foresee a future when SE countries will segue to individually becoming something like "Autonomous Region of ________" beholden to Beijing. Though, by that time, Beijing may not be China's capital, as it may be covered in Gobi sand.

Let's keep perspective here, because the CCP-PRC isn't going anyplace.

The property market bubble alone is $22 trillion - yes, I said trillion. And we know bubbles never end well. And that's not all.

Bank and financial credit is completely out of hand.

Local government debt is wildly out of control.

The shadow banking system in the CCP-PRC operates independently of Beijing's fiscal or monetary policies, except to meet the consequent demands of borrowers who are individual, institutional, local governments especially.

There's an economic and financial crash coming - you can bank on it. It in fact is going to be a depression. The People of the People's Republic are going to go after the CCP with a meat axe. The chaos will keep the Chinese busy among themselves for many years to come.

All these CCP-PRC projects we're talking about throughout SE Asia are radioactive to market oriented investors and will be a bust to the governments involved in them.

There's no future to the CCP-PRC, only chaos. China's been in chaos for 150 years now and it's not getting any better. The CCP and its outmoded ideas and massive corruption are nothing more than an extension of the reason for this chaos. The Chinese elites keep making the wrong decisions and choices. They are dense and they are slow to catch the drift of history.

[Publicus]

It would seem that whoever is correct -- whether China's economy continues to gather steam and move forward, or crashes and burns -- it is going to shake the world economic scene.

The world will well survive the crash.

Capital will move in great amounts to India where it's much easier to improve the government and thus the economy, finance, society.

[SinglePot]

From a link provided by L Chee.

"China's government is faced with a $1 trillion healthcare bill by 2020, according to a report by consultants McKinsey, and is keen to cut the prices of medicines while at the same time trying to provide universal access to healthcare.

That has made pharmaceutical companies vulnerable, said James Zimmerman, managing partner of law firm Sheppard Mullin Richter & Hampton and a former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

"My take is that the PRC government is targeting the industry given that cost-effective health care for the masses is a critical current policy objective for China's aging population, and the government's legitimacy is at risk if it fails to deliver on its promise of affordable and accessible health care," Zimmerman said."

Yep.

[SinglePot]

Btw: Aung San Suu Kyi's late husband was a westerner. He presumably knew the rules of engagement.

Personally, I would prefer a hug from Obama than a smile from Jinping.

Especially if I had spent 15 years under house arrest by a dictatorship.

PS: my wife is Asian, so I am not talking out of my a***.

Happy Sunday.

[SinglePot]

Anybody fancy lychees for dessert?

Edited October 6, 2013 by SinglePot

[LawrenceChee]

It would seem that whoever is correct -- whether China's economy continues to gather steam and move forward, or crashes and burns -- it is going to shake the world economic scene.

The world will well survive the crash.

Capital will move in great amounts to India where it's much easier to improve the government and thus the economy, finance, society.

Hahahahah really ! I hoped you have worked in projects in India to quantify that statement.

No offense but India is so far off the radar that the level of corruption makes the Chinese looks like amateur

Wish u luck there mate :-) if you invested your money there.

[LawrenceChee]

From a link provided by L Chee.

"China's government is faced with a $1 trillion healthcare bill by 2020, according to a report by consultants McKinsey, and is keen to cut the prices of medicines while at the same time trying to provide universal access to healthcare.

That has made pharmaceutical companies vulnerable, said James Zimmerman, managing partner of law firm Sheppard Mullin Richter & Hampton and a former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

"My take is that the PRC government is targeting the industry given that cost-effective health care for the masses is a critical current policy objective for China's aging population, and the government's legitimacy is at risk if it fails to deliver on its promise of affordable and accessible health care," Zimmerman said."

Yep.

Looking at the examples so far in developed countries ..this is indeed a valid concern as no one seem to be able to achieve that yet in providing affordable healthcare ...maybe Taksin 30 baht clinics is the closest and there are still critics.

[SinglePot]

It would seem that whoever is correct -- whether China's economy continues to gather steam and move forward, or crashes and burns -- it is going to shake the world economic scene.

The world will well survive the crash.

Capital will move in great amounts to India where it's much easier to improve the government and thus the economy, finance, society.

Hahahahah really ! I hoped you have worked in projects in India to quantify that statement.

No offense but India is so far off the radar that the level of corruption makes the Chinese looks like amateur

Wish u luck there mate :-) if you invested your money there.

Bash India.

[SinglePot]

From a link provided by L Chee.

"China's government is faced with a $1 trillion healthcare bill by 2020, according to a report by consultants McKinsey, and is keen to cut the prices of medicines while at the same time trying to provide universal access to healthcare.

That has made pharmaceutical companies vulnerable, said James Zimmerman, managing partner of law firm Sheppard Mullin Richter & Hampton and a former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

"My take is that the PRC government is targeting the industry given that cost-effective health care for the masses is a critical current policy objective for China's aging population, and the government's legitimacy is at risk if it fails to deliver on its promise of affordable and accessible health care," Zimmerman said."

Yep.

Looking at the examples so far in developed countries ..this is indeed a valid concern as no one seem to be able to achieve that yet in providing affordable healthcare ...maybe Taksin 30 baht clinics is the closest and there are still critics.

Bash Thailand.

[Publicus]

It would seem that whoever is correct -- whether China's economy continues to gather steam and move forward, or crashes and burns -- it is going to shake the world economic scene.

The world will well survive the crash.

Capital will move in great amounts to India where it's much easier to improve the government and thus the economy, finance, society.

Hahahahah really ! I hoped you have worked in projects in India to quantify that statement.

No offense but India is so far off the radar that the level of corruption makes the Chinese looks like amateur

Wish u luck there mate :-) if you invested your money there.

India has a lot of challenges which a central part of the challenge of moving on to India.

Indians are democratic, one can work with them, unlike the dictators in Beijing and throughout the CCP-PRC. The government is responsive to the people. There is a free press to help expose and reduce corruption. Bureaucrats will have to become competent, responsive.

Everything about India will have to improve in efficiency, so it will improve.

Further Western influences in India will only be positive and the Indians responsive.

The Chinese and the Indians really don't like each other, which is why you laugh and are so dismissive.

I'm going to enjoy your crash.

[SinglePot]

Since this thread is about the Chinese economy and everybody seems to be agreed that property is a big part of it.

"Property is theft"

Seems like a bit of dissonance going on in the Mao-Marxist CCP.

Edited October 6, 2013 by SinglePot

[SinglePot]

From a link provided by L Chee.

"China's government is faced with a $1 trillion healthcare bill by 2020, according to a report by consultants McKinsey, and is keen to cut the prices of medicines while at the same time trying to provide universal access to healthcare.

That has made pharmaceutical companies vulnerable, said James Zimmerman, managing partner of law firm Sheppard Mullin Richter & Hampton and a former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

"My take is that the PRC government is targeting the industry given that cost-effective health care for the masses is a critical current policy objective for China's aging population, and the government's legitimacy is at risk if it fails to deliver on its promise of affordable and accessible health care," Zimmerman said."

Yep.

Looking at the examples so far in developed countries ..this is indeed a valid concern as no one seem to be able to achieve that yet in providing affordable healthcare ...maybe Taksin 30 baht clinics is the closest and there are still critics.

I (and family) have been on the receiving end of hospital services in both Thailand and the PRC.

PRC hospital is a very interesting experience.

Where do You go?

[folium]

It would seem that whoever is correct -- whether China's economy continues to gather steam and move forward, or crashes and burns -- it is going to shake the world economic scene.

The world will well survive the crash.

Capital will move in great amounts to India where it's much easier to improve the government and thus the economy, finance, society.

I fear your optimism about India may be somewhat overstated.

India should be an obvious alternative to China in every respect but the current financial tribulations highlight the major issues it faces.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21584010-why-india-particularly-vulnerable-turbulence-rattling-emerging

Since independence much of the recent history of India, particularly on the economic side has been one of missed opportunities and the squandering of opportunities.

If India gets its act together it could be a serious rival to China but it is far from that position today, notwithstanding the issues that go with the PRC.

[SinglePot]

My bet is Indonesia will become the new China. Low labour costs and a big work force.

While we wait, as the OP suggests, for China's economy to become consumption and services lead.

China's greatest strength is its ability to manufacture at low cost.

So.

Interesting.

[SinglePot]

BTW. I wouldn't trust them with my dog in a PRC hospital.

Blokey doing a wai.

[Publicus]

It would seem that whoever is correct -- whether China's economy continues to gather steam and move forward, or crashes and burns -- it is going to shake the world economic scene.

The world will well survive the crash.

Capital will move in great amounts to India where it's much easier to improve the government and thus the economy, finance, society.

I fear your optimism about India may be somewhat overstated.

India should be an obvious alternative to China in every respect but the current financial tribulations highlight the major issues it faces.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21584010-why-india-particularly-vulnerable-turbulence-rattling-emerging

Since independence much of the recent history of India, particularly on the economic side has been one of missed opportunities and the squandering of opportunities.

If India gets its act together it could be a serious rival to China but it is far from that position today, notwithstanding the issues that go with the PRC.

India would be a challenge, yes, everyone knows this. It's chaos over there, as everyone knows. Everyone knows India is hugely chaotic.

I'm not optimistic, I'm realistic. Everyone knows India needs a hellovalot of straightening out over some considerable period of time.

But it's a democracy and Indians are people one can work with. There's a lot more English in India than there is in the CCP-PRC.

And when the CCP-PRC goes into the tank, as it surely will, there's no other equivalent alternative for foreign capital. It has to go to India - certainly the vast amount of it. Foreign capital will have to go to India. It's not a matter of optimism. It's a matter of reality.

Everyone knows India is a huge project. Everyone knows this.

Everyone.

[Publicus]

BTW. I wouldn't trust them with my dog in a PRC hospital.

Blokey doing a wai.

Quacks.

[Scott]

A troll post has been deleted. Stay on topic.