Like I Predicted, Us Dollar Is Down, Down, Down!

[helitool]

Take a look at the 3 month predictions for the Baht to Dollar on this website!

http://www.ratesfx.com/predictions/pred-thb.html

[Firefan]

It's amazing how accurate private held predictions become, after the fact. Incredible!

Well - not sure who you refer to but if you mean TRIPxCORE or me a simply search here will show that our ideas on the THB (and a bunch of other things! ) were NOT private held.

Here is a post I posted 22/7/05 (Topic: "China devalues the Yuan" but you can find many many more like it:

Quote

My view is that the THB will strengthen on this news. I fully agree with Thaiquilla that China is smart enough to make it a slow process to not kill their main markets.

It is actually a funny case of USA finally getting what it asked for and later realizing that they did not want it at all! Carefull what you wish for!

To believe that US production would EVER be able to compeed with low cost(wages Etc.) production in China - just through an adjustment of the Yuan was naive at best - instead the US and EU will now see rapid increases in costs/prices as the "Walmart effect" is being killed - as that was the main reason for the artificially low inflation nos we have seen in the Western world lately.

As for the THB it will surely strengthen - it has been kept artificially low for a loooong time in order to be able to compeed with China.

Where to put your money now? Anything based in Asian currencies really - emerging market bond funds, cash and naturally also commodities and metals. Emerging market equities are also interesting but as their main markets feel the punch of inflation they could take a hit.

I am personally overweight in Asia and underweight EU/US.

Meanwhile the inter asia markets are growing and can ensure demand continues even with a US/EU drop.

Disclaimer: I have been wrong before!

Cheers!

UNQUOTE

Edited April 29, 2006 by Firefan

[Mighty Mouse]

Where to put your money now? Anything based in Asian currencies really - emerging market bond funds, cash and naturally also commodities and metals.

Metals. Had you loaded up on metals 12 months ago you would have done well right through to today.

They are looking rather toppy right now. Hopefully just consolidating in readiness for the next up leg.

In Australia, uranium stocks have been surging for the past 18 months. Two, three, four hundred percent gain over that period. A nice ride. They are now taking a well earned breather.

I'd love to hear what you predict for the next 12 months. Do you see the bear returning to control the markets?

[Firefan]

I think it was Niels Bohr who (before Yogi Berra) said; "predictions are hard to make, especially about the future".

So instead I will just tell you that I have put my money where my mouth is and am still overweight in Asia/other developing markets/commodities - but I do also hold USA and EU/other developed countries.

You are right in saying that gold/commodities have been on a run, so I am re-balancing the portfolio - I.e. taking some of the profits of the table, and putting it into the asset classes that did less good, such as my US inflation proof bonds (TIPs) and foreign bond funds.

I also believe we will see some correction on of the higher flying asset classes (Emerging markets/commodities/REITs Etc.) but unfortunately nothing looks really cheap out there these days, so the best one can do is re-balance to ensure one is not holding TOO much of a too inflated asset class.

Clever people believe that US large caps - especially growth - (having underperformed for years) are up for a run. I am not so sure but have switched my US part from mostly value stocks to a blend.

The long term trend for commodities is however still up (despite the corrections we will see), and so it is for Asian currencies. I am just back from China and the general consencious is that the the government will continue a very slow strengthening of the Yuan, which will carry most Asian currencies with it.

The USD have its own problems as already discussed, so a prudent investor will be diversified not only asset class but also currency wise.

My 2 cents! I have been wrong before! Cheers!

[sibeymai]

anyone with a high school education in economics should be able to understand and predict that in the current circumstances the US dollar will decline. This isn't about the Thai baht, which has not appreciated significantly against regional currencies, but the US dollar has declined against most currencies world wide. Such decline has, I believe, predicted by economists well before the Iraq war simply because for too many years the US has been spending more than it earns. Until this changes the US dollar will continue to decline and with the decline so the relevance of the dollar in world trade will also decline. Less relevance in international trade as other currencies become stronger (euro, yen, yuan or even an ASEAN euro equivalent) will see the dollar's decline continue over a long period.

[opothai]

It's amazing how accurate private held predictions become, after the fact. Incredible!

Well - not sure who you refer to but if you mean TRIPxCORE or me a simply search here will show that our ideas on the THB (and a bunch of other things! ) were NOT private held.

Here is a post I posted 22/7/05 (Topic: "China devalues the Yuan" but you can find many many more like it:

Quote

My view is that the THB will strengthen on this news. I fully agree with Thaiquilla that China is smart enough to make it a slow process to not kill their main markets.

It is actually a funny case of USA finally getting what it asked for and later realizing that they did not want it at all! Carefull what you wish for!

To believe that US production would EVER be able to compeed with low cost(wages Etc.) production in China - just through an adjustment of the Yuan was naive at best - instead the US and EU will now see rapid increases in costs/prices as the "Walmart effect" is being killed - as that was the main reason for the artificially low inflation nos we have seen in the Western world lately.

As for the THB it will surely strengthen - it has been kept artificially low for a loooong time in order to be able to compeed with China.

Where to put your money now? Anything based in Asian currencies really - emerging market bond funds, cash and naturally also commodities and metals. Emerging market equities are also interesting but as their main markets feel the punch of inflation they could take a hit.

I am personally overweight in Asia and underweight EU/US.

Meanwhile the inter asia markets are growing and can ensure demand continues even with a US/EU drop.

Disclaimer: I have been wrong before!

Cheers!

UNQUOTE

whilst i agree with you on the points raised,

personally i think with the yuan strengthening and the us dollar weak, at the moment there is little effect on the global markets, but by the end of the year you will see the chinese economy slow on exports along with the rest of asia [ whom rely on the hoover of the world to suck up all the over produced goods ], when this happens you will see a very quick reversal on currencies. whilst the dollar weak, good for american business and overseas exports it will not take long for the us to pay down thier debt cheaply. and when the us stop importing so many consumables because of the price diferentials get ready for a correction in asia.

the thai baht cannot get much stronger otherwise inflation will kill the economy as the wage structure in thailand can not take a high baht and inflation, fishing trawlers not working, building materials doubled in one year, and with this kind of thing going on in los this will stop the economy in its tracks.

thailand rely heavily on agricultural exports as they have been cost effective, but with a high export cost from produce any country can supply the market will come under pressure.

[tomyamg00ng]

The dollar decline or crisis is nothing new. Its only becoming more talked about as the issues surronding it become more acute.

Infact the wheels have been set in motion you could say since 1973 with the break down of Bretton Woods agreement. The gold standard was abandoned. Now there remains no mechanism to control imbalances in exchange rates. The responsibility was left to the free markt.

However, the problem is that America importants 70% of its goods. The reason for this is that with very low wages in countries in emerging markets goods are much cheaper to produce than in america. Wages averaging 4 dollars a day or less and cheap land prices, for new factories and HQ,s is the only reason the goods are made in these countries.

This means that america uses dollars to pay for these products and goods. However the emerging market countries don t dont exchange the dollars into their own currencies. Why? The reason they dont ,is that if they did this then their currencies would appreciate,meaning the exports would become expensive. These countries because they export led growth countries also have account surpluses. SO what to do with all this dollar surplus?

Instead of investing directly in their own economies and equity markets they invest in the US markets. They know the US has highly advanced, less risk adverse markets,or at least this is the perception. To cater to this notion The US have created all sorts of debt instruments. Issuing bonds,derivatives. This has been the cause of the current acount deficit. To stop the deficit growing anymore America has to attract investment of 1 million dollars a minute.

The american people and the rest of the world have never been so much in debt. Americans have taken huge amounts of capital out against the mortgages on their homes, and are living beyond there means.

The real fear is that when america stops spending and going into debt as it will have to,this will harm the export driven emerging market countries. The large amounts of credit allocation and loans by banks will non-perform and banks will start calling in the debt. Inturn these countries will no longer be able to finance the current account deficit. The global economy will be left without a definite growth engine as the emerging markets dont have near enough domestic demand. This in thoery would lead to a global recession, with deflationary pressures in the emerging market countries. The country that depends most on the Us for growth is china. When demand drops because the Us consumer is forced to stop spending the demand for imported goods will drop dramatically. This inturn will effect the other asian countries who rely on china for growth.

One way or another the only way that these massive disequilibriums can be solved is with a very big decline and devaluation of the dollar.

[kdvsn]

he ratios of the prices of Bershire's A & B shares is still almost exactly 30:1, just as it was at the time that the B shares were first created. For all practical purposes, a "B" share is no different than owning 1/30th of an "A" share. You wouldn't have lost out had you made the conversion to A shares, you would just have gained the option of cashing out your shares in $2900 increments instead of $88,000 increments.

True enough the variant in monetary terms was and is near equal. Yet, at the time of conversion, the real issue at the shareholder meeting was voting rights.

B shares, I am almost positive, carry only 1/200th voting right as compared to an A share. You, if your one of those very rare small share investor, like myself, are essentially 2nd class in the decision process where voting counts if you own the class B.

However, factually, most if not all, issues voted on are never close as it is truly a closed end country club essentially.

Though I seldom go, it, in the blow and go, wheel and deal days of my youth, was still a good place for a small potato like me to hobnob with those that that really influence the economy and politics as I sat outbound and isolated with those few little share holders of my 1st class but overwhemingly low class investment status.

I'm not sure about the voting right but what you say sounds plausible. I wound't have thought that would bother most investors though because the usual reason to buy Berkshire shares is cash in on Warren Buffet's investment talents, not to try to tell Warren Buffet how to run the enterprise.

But even when holding the B shares they still send you tickets to the annual meeting in Omaha. I held the B shares at one point but never when out to that meeting despite receiving tickets in the mail each year, though it it sounded sort of interesting as Buffet groupies seem to describe the Annual Meeting as thier Woodstock and Graceland all rolled into one. At one time those tickets used to even get scalped on eBay.

Edited April 30, 2006 by kdvsn

[LivinLOS]

The crash is coming (dollar / real estate / fiat currency / you name it)..

Made many posts over the last 2 years on this subject here that all have played out nicely..

Made bigish (300k Euro) bets on silver at high sixs late last year.. Made 800k bets on gold and leveraged with gold equity etc.. Laughed at harmonica shorting oil and long dollar.. Called uranium.. Called Moly.. Took large bets on Palladium at 275 and sub 2 months later 350.. Put close to a 7 figure usd nestegg into the retirement fund last year.

The commodity bull is just getting going.. Years of steam in this.. Not worrying about the daily movements.. Look back in a few years and smile..

The real problems are coming closer.. Deficits do matter.. Real estate crashes will hurt more then stock crashes.. Interest rates at 15% and a crashing dollar cause much pain for those not hedged or prepared.

[TRIPxCORE]

Laughed at harmonica shorting oil and long dollar

The real problems are coming closer.. Deficits do matter.. Real estate crashes will hurt more then stock crashes.. Interest rates at 15% and a crashing dollar cause much pain for those not hedged or prepared.

Harmonica! I almost forgot about him. Where did he go? I used to debate him all the time on the direction of USD.

Quite smart of you to say deficits do matter. That is an absolute fact and a very good point which I have tried to make many times. When the sh*t hits the fan in the U.S., it's going to hurt like he*l to the people that weren't prepared.

[LaoPo]

Laughed at harmonica shorting oil and long dollar

The real problems are coming closer.. Deficits do matter.. Real estate crashes will hurt more then stock crashes.. Interest rates at 15% and a crashing dollar cause much pain for those not hedged or prepared.

Harmonica! I almost forgot about him. Where did he go? I used to debate him all the time on the direction of USD.

Quite smart of you to say deficits do matter. That is an absolute fact and a very good point which I have tried to make many times. When the sh*t hits the fan in the U.S., it's going to hurt like he*l to the people that weren't prepared.

Harmonica:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?ac...sult_type=posts

Long time ago since he posted...october 22nd 2005....but he popped in a few days ago to see if we're doing OK:

"Last Active 2006-04-29 14:05:03"

LaoPo

Edited May 1, 2006 by LaoPo

[LivinLOS]

Laughed at harmonica shorting oil and long dollar

The real problems are coming closer.. Deficits do matter.. Real estate crashes will hurt more then stock crashes.. Interest rates at 15% and a crashing dollar cause much pain for those not hedged or prepared.

Harmonica! I almost forgot about him. Where did he go? I used to debate him all the time on the direction of USD.

Quite smart of you to say deficits do matter. That is an absolute fact and a very good point which I have tried to make many times. When the sh*t hits the fan in the U.S., it's going to hurt like he*l to the people that weren't prepared.

I hadnt forgot him as he made a point of trying to miss quote me or quote out of context while many will remember his selective memory issues..

Oil 15 USD per barrel.. Dollar super strong.. Those were his trend calls.. He did seem like an OK trader and some of his timing calls for trades were good but he had a opposite view of long term trends than I have.. If you have the general trend right then market timing gets a lot less important.

My best this month.. NXG 20k shares at 2.50 about 3 weeks ago 4:15 this morning.. Nice 30k USD return in a couple of weeks.. Will go a lot further.. PE is 13 on declared reserves, they have more according to research.. PE is nearer 8 or so for a Gold and copper producer !!

[LivinLOS]

Just dug out his last posts.. Was shorting gold at 475 or so..

[TRIPxCORE]

Just dug out his last posts.. Was shorting gold at 475 or so..

What a mistake that was!!!!!!!!

[meowchawpnom]

I'm looking into Everbank's foreign currency accounts. I see that they charge 0.75% to convert a currency, so if you convert dollars to a foreign currency, then back to dollars, that's 1.5%. Is that a fair fee or is it rather high? Are there any alternatives to Everbank, aside from online trading brokers that seem to have (much lower) 3 pip spreads?

[sleepyjohn]

I'm looking into Everbank's foreign currency accounts. I see that they charge 0.75% to convert a currency, so if you convert dollars to a foreign currency, then back to dollars, that's 1.5%. Is that a fair fee or is it rather high? Are there any alternatives to Everbank, aside from online trading brokers that seem to have (much lower) 3 pip spreads?

Yes interactive brokers have a 2 pip spread now.

A top rank bank will negotiate the spread charged. My banker recently said he'd do it for me for 5 pips because he knows i have IB account, and probably wants me to leave my money with him. This may be exceptional. What counts is what you do witht he cash after it's changed. IB rates and my banks rates for money market are pretty fair, but you would want better if it was for long term.

If someone tried to charge me 1.5% round trip I would kick him.

[meowchawpnom]

I'm looking into Everbank's foreign currency accounts. I see that they charge 0.75% to convert a currency, so if you convert dollars to a foreign currency, then back to dollars, that's 1.5%. Is that a fair fee or is it rather high? Are there any alternatives to Everbank, aside from online trading brokers that seem to have (much lower) 3 pip spreads?

Yes interactive brokers have a 2 pip spread now.

A top rank bank will negotiate the spread charged. My banker recently said he'd do it for me for 5 pips because he knows i have IB account, and probably wants me to leave my money with him. This may be exceptional. What counts is what you do witht he cash after it's changed. IB rates and my banks rates for money market are pretty fair, but you would want better if it was for long term.

If someone tried to charge me 1.5% round trip I would kick him.

Well, that is what Everbank charges. Do you think it's a ripoff? What do most banks charge for converting currency?

Unfortunately, Everbank is the only show in town in the US if you want a foreign currency account. Okay, maybe HSBC in Singapore and other foreign banks offer them too. What rates do they charge for conversion?

Of course, I don't know any bank that offers Chinese Renminbi and Indian Rupee accounts except Everbank.

[sleepyjohn]

Well, that is what Everbank charges. Do you think it's a ripoff? What do most banks charge for converting currency?

If they are changing a major pair yes I would still kick them.

For 100,000$ it would cost them less than $20 to do the round trip transaction if they used an outside broker. Of course they have to provide a gateway.

It's up to you if giving them $1480 gross for a few minutes work is OK.

As for minors like the rupee sorry I can't help you.

Thought about an ETF in $ that benefits from a foreign currency rise? Might be easier and cheaper for you.

[TRIPxCORE]

Well, well. To all the naysayers that kept opposing my opinion of the USD depreciating (BritMav ), how are you feeling after hearing this news?

IRAN: EURO TO REPLACE DOLLAR AS OIL CURRENCY

Tehran, 5 May (AKI) - In July Iran will ditch the dollar in favour of the euro as the currency in which it will accept payments for its oil and natural gas exports, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Friday. The switch, first mooted months ago, was expected but Ahmadinejad's decision comes just as Washington is stepping up pressure on other United Nations Security Council members to act against Tehran for flouting agreements taken with the UN's nuclear watchdog.

Ahmadinejad's announcement, made in Baku, Azerbaijan where the Iranian leader is attending a regional economics conference, appears aimed at weakening the United States' resolve to seek sanctions against Iran if it does not comply with the UN International Agency for Atomic Energy's demands.

Some observers beleive the Iranian move could deal a severe blow the the American currency as many central banks from oil importing nations could choose to stock up their currency reserves with euros rather than dollars.

Dollar slides on jobs figures

The dollar took another battering on the currency markets yesterday after worse than expected figures from the US Commerce Department showing that far fewer jobs were created last month than forecast.

Employers hired an extra 138,000 workers in April, according to non-farm payrolls data — far fewer than the figure of at least 200,000 anticipated by Wall Street. The resulting dollar losses drove the euro up to $1.2765, while the pound hit $1.8595, its highest level in a year.

I revel in my correctness!

Edited May 6, 2006 by TRIPxCORE

[LaoPo]

Well, well. To all the naysayers that kept opposing my opinion of the USD depreciating (BritMav ), how are you feeling after hearing this news?

IRAN: EURO TO REPLACE DOLLAR AS OIL CURRENCY

I wasn't a 'naysayer' Trip ; saw it coming for months.

I'm happy with a strong Euro....BUT...it will have serious consequences for the entire world.

1st, I doubt if the Iranian decision has to do with economical reasons rather than political.

2nd, For countries outside the 'Euro' it will hurt like h_ll and this example will have followers (from Iran) no doubt, like Venezuela for instance.

3rd, Countries like China who depend on Oil-imports but have huge reserves in US $ (Trillions !) it will hurt dramatically. But it will even hurt more for those countries that are in debt...

The consequences are not to foreseen but if it continues I fear a worldwide crises.

If the Oil producing countries would do the change from $ to Euro gradually (or partly) it would be better, but I fear that in this case a few (oil producing) countries will put a knife to the throats of the Western world. ...and..thus...the chances of Western (read: American) intervention comes closer and closer.

We should NOT forget:

Iran is NOT Iraq!!!!!

LaoPo

[kdvsn]

I'm looking into Everbank's foreign currency accounts. I see that they charge 0.75% to convert a currency, so if you convert dollars to a foreign currency, then back to dollars, that's 1.5%. Is that a fair fee or is it rather high? Are there any alternatives to Everbank, aside from online trading brokers that seem to have (much lower) 3 pip spreads?

Everbank is also generally paying you about 1% per year less than the bank CD rates that you'd get when CDs are purchased from a bank in the currency's home country. I have some money with Everbank anyway, mostly because it's a convenient way for a US resident to park cash in an currency other than the USD. Other alterntaives for conservative money that I'm aware of are an exchange traded fund with symbol FXE that tracks the value of 100 Euro and pays dividends of about 2% (making it some ways similar to being a Euro denomiated money market fund) and a mutual fund with symbol PSAFX which is essentially an ultra short term foreign bond fund with the added twist that it keeps something like 20% of its assests in gold and gold mining stocks.

Edited May 6, 2006 by kdvsn

[stranger_in_the_alps]

Well, well. To all the naysayers that kept opposing my opinion of the USD depreciating (BritMav ), how are you feeling after hearing this news?

IRAN: EURO TO REPLACE DOLLAR AS OIL CURRENCY

I wasn't a 'naysayer' Trip ; saw it coming for months.

I'm happy with a strong Euro....BUT...it will have serious consequences for the entire world.

1st, I doubt if the Iranian decision has to do with economical reasons rather than political.

2nd, For countries outside the 'Euro' it will hurt like h_ll and this example will have followers (from Iran) no doubt, like Venezuela for instance.

3rd, Countries like China who depend on Oil-imports but have huge reserves in US $ (Trillions !) it will hurt dramatically. But it will even hurt more for those countries that are in debt...

The consequences are not to foreseen but if it continues I fear a worldwide crises.

If the Oil producing countries would do the change from $ to Euro gradually (or partly) it would be better, but I fear that in this case a few (oil producing) countries will put a knife to the throats of the Western world. ...and..thus...the chances of Western (read: American) intervention comes closer and closer.

We should NOT forget:

Iran is NOT Iraq!!!!!

LaoPo

We will see massive bloodshed shortly. The "spice" must flow.

[meowchawpnom]

I'm looking into Everbank's foreign currency accounts. I see that they charge 0.75% to convert a currency, so if you convert dollars to a foreign currency, then back to dollars, that's 1.5%. Is that a fair fee or is it rather high? Are there any alternatives to Everbank, aside from online trading brokers that seem to have (much lower) 3 pip spreads?

Everbank is also generally paying you about 1% per year less than the bank CD rates that you'd get when CDs are purchased from a bank in the currency's home country.

Well, actually I think they're shafting you even more than that, according to some of my research. The problem is, and please correct me if I'm wrong, that it appears to be very difficult for a nonresident foreigner to open a savings account at a bank that's not in your home country. At least that seems to be the case in a few countries I'm researching, such as India.

[LaoPo]

British Pound - Thai Baht

71.80 Baht to the BP good news for you Brits!

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm

and (friday's):

http://www.ratesfx.com/predictions/pred-thb.html

LaoPo

Edited May 14, 2006 by LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Weaker dollar hits world markets

European stock markets fell sharply on Friday.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4767049.stm

LaoPo

[britmaveric]

1.00 USD = 37.9702 THB

Upward trend is back - as I predicted - hate being right!

[Tony Montana]

Lets face it the US$ is doomed,trade deficit is massive a very expensive war,what happens when the Chinese start changing there reserves from US$ to gold & Euro's etc.Also a huge housing bubble ready to pop.

You may think I'm nuts but we are witnessing the last days of the worlds superpower,just like the Romans,Greeks & not so long ago the British Empire everything has to come to an end.

[tc101]

Congratulations on your accurate prediction. However, keep in mind that if anyone could accurately predict the future values of currencies they would be very rich. Some of the best financial minds on earth are constantly trying to make these predictions, and half the time they are wrong. If you made a good guess and invested some money on that guess then I congratulate you, but don't count on your ability to be correct on a regular basis.

Since I do not know the future direction of currency valuations, I believe in diversifying. As other posters have pointed out, Everbank may not be the best way to do this. I buy stock and bond mutual funds that invest in all the world markets and get currency diversification that way.

Edited May 14, 2006 by tc101

[Tony Montana]

Congratulations on your accurate prediction. However, keep in mind that if anyone could accurately predict the future values of currencies they would be very rich. Some of the best financial minds on earth are constantly trying to make these predictions, and half the time they are wrong. If you made a good guess and invested some money on that guess then I congratulate you, but don't count on your ability to be correct on a regular basis.

Since I do not know the future direction of currency valuations, I believe in diversifying. As other posters have pointed out, Everbank may not be the best way to do this. I buy stock and bond mutual funds that invest in all the world markets and get currency diversification that way.

I agree predicting currency futures is one of the hardest proffesions,but the time frame & coorporate greed are not in their favour.I'm no forex guru,but the subject is the current US$ & certain cicumstances dont seem to favour it,just my observation,I think I would be going short or implacing putts when the US$ is concerned.If I was a gambling man I would be ploughing it into gold rather then the US$.

[Carmine6]

Let me see if I understand this. Falling dollar foretells the doom of the US?

Not quite in my opinion. Really it is the only way to start fixing the trade deficit, which many people seem to think is the fault of the government. It's actually just due to people making normal purchases every day. And a weak dollar is the only way to get the Chinese to move faster in letting the currency float. Diplomatic dicussions won't have nearly the effect as them continuing to face higher oil, steel, and other raw materials prices.

The US wants China to let their currency float and strengthen. While this would raise prices for American consumers, it makes US goods (and everyone else's) more competitive internationally. It would also let other developing countries compete more fairly.

But China says no, they're taking their time getting there. China has been keeping their currency tied to the dollar by buying US bonds which probably yield about 4% on average. Now that the dollar has fallen, those bonds are worth a whole lot less. Maybe 10% on the exchange relative to other currencies, and much more on what they could sell the bonds for since the rates are now above 5%.

So the Chinese have taken a huge hit by trying to keep their currency tied to the dollar. Not only are the bonds they own worth a lot less, but the price of steel, copper, oil, concrete and everything else is a lot higher. That's going to be true as long as they try to tie the currency to the dollar and the dollar falls.

US exports of goods and services hit a record for March and also a record for exports to China. And the trade deficit fell in both February and March. Somehow the media doesn't seem to care about those stats or the sub-5% unemployment rate.

I don't know where the exchange rate is headed, but I'm hardly worried about the US.