Foreigners pull money out of Thai stocks and bonds

[rodroy]

What has a the photo of the tourist got to do with anything?

Endangered species!

[kotsak]

dontejo, on 14 Nov 2013 - 10:44, said:

worgeordie, on 14 Nov 2013 - 08:40, said:

Bloody foreigners,why can they not just leave their money here,

shut up,and leave us alone, we know what we are doing,most

likely what the government is thinking,even though they wont

say it.

regards Worgeordie

The government is thinking???

Most likely sinking..

[benny1616]

None of you have anything good to say about Thailand, what the hell are you doing here if it is that bad for you.

It is not easy to be in business in Thailand, I have a company that I intended to import and export but you have to have a license for every thing, you have to state what product for each export or import with fees all the time, does not happen in western country's you need your lawyer to do it most of the time as if you try your self they make it so difficult if you are not prepared to donate some good tea money. Al Capone would have been in the shit if he tried it.

yes, so is it. they living here and many of them make for shure a lot of money here but talking very bad about thailand. they have forgotten or never has learned that all the bad things was brougt to thailand from the english, us citizens and so on. now they complain that thais doing like they.did :-D before we farangs came here thais where quit different and up to now thailand still have a lot of thais wich are different, honestly, fair trading and not coruppt.

Edited November 14, 2013 by benny1616

[TTom911]

None of you have anything good to say about Thailand, what the hell are you doing here if it is that bad for you.

It is not easy to be in business in Thailand, I have a company that I intended to import and export but you have to have a license for every thing, you have to state what product for each export or import with fees all the time, does not happen in western country's you need your lawyer to do it most of the time as if you try your self they make it so difficult if you are not prepared to donate some good tea money. Al Capone would have been in the shit if he tried it.

yes, so is it. they living here and many of them make for shure a lot of money here but talking very bad about thailand. they have forgotten or never has learned that all the bad things was brougt to thailand from the english, us citizens and so on. now they complain that thais doing like they.did :-D before we farangs came here thais where quit different and up to now still thailand still have a lot of thais wich are different, honestly, fair trading and not coruppt.

ABSOLUTELY, "up to now still thailand still have a lot of thais which are different, honestly, fair trading and not corrupt"

BUT these Thai are, I am 100% certain, as cheesed off by the situation where an elite is just trying to cement a system which benefits them and stands in the way for these honest, decent and hardworking Thai and stops them from progressing as they would deserve...

[jdinasia]

Shaurene --- do you know anything about Thailand before foreigners were here?

But really folks .. your whines about Thailand have nothing to do with the SET, stocks or bonds .......

[tragickingdom]

I assume good news for the nationalists. Now they do not have to be afraid anymore that foreigners are boxing pieces of Thailand and are taking it back home.

[smileydude]

According to the World Economic Forum Competitive Index Thailand is 38th on the list due to strengths in macroeconomic environment and the size of our market. Of the 12 pillars which determine the competitiveness of each country we are weakest in the areas of higher education + training, technological readiness and Institutions.

Foreign investors are interested in maximizing profits and thus will hedge their risks.

I wouldn't read into it too much at the moment as Thailand still has good fundamentals otherwise we wouldn't be 38th on the list BUT much needs to be improved especially in the area of institutions such as the Thai government which is not instilling confidence by passing laws that foreign investors are obviously aware will not weed out the bane of corruption but actually aggravate it. Thailand's legal & administrative framework is going backwards. I wonder how much more competitiveness do we have to lose out to our neighbors before we actually wake up from our legend-in-our-own-minds superiority?

Shoot from the hip comments usually end up shooting yourself in the foot.

Edited November 14, 2013 by smileydude

[Timwin]

Thailand is about to hit the 10000 dollar per capita GDP limit. Countries get to that point simply by cheap labour and copying everything from the West but after that the economic growth gets much more difficult.

It would require more innovation, better business climate, better laws, better justice system, better policing and much less corruption. At the same time Thailand is already losing jobs to even more cheap neighboring countries so there will be soon an economic crisis here.

[techboy]

The really stupid people around here are those playing the Thai Bashing game in these forums (and elsewhere). Every communication you make on the Internet and via your mobile phone is intercepted and analysed. They know who you are and where you live and your passport number too. It's not only the NSA that's doing it. You are the real morons!

OMG!!! Passport number and where I live too???!!! This would require all the ingenuity and high tech stealth of reading my entry card. Intercepting all my email and phone conversations? Ha! Now I know why that old lady who sells flowers in the evenings is always asking me "bpai nai ma?" She is not really there to sell flowers, is she. And you- your post may be interpreted as a sign of paranoia born of guilt- Any day now they will be banging on your door.

[sultan2011]

The really stupid people around here are those playing the Thai Bashing game in these forums (and elsewhere). Every communication you make on the Internet and via your mobile phone is intercepted and analysed. They know who you are and where you live and your passport number too. It's not only the NSA that's doing it. You are the real morons!

I think your over exaggerating slightly, probably the only person tapping into your internet ect would be someone trying to hack into your bank account & I don't think it's a case of "thai bashing"....I would say every foreigner who is in Thailand either on holiday or residing came here with all good intent and not a bad word to say about the place...but,without going into detail they have been changed by the people they cannot be wrong for that.

[Tippaporn]

The ship is starting to sink......

Money is the only thing Thais understand. Let's hope they understand what this means.

The ship is starting to sink......

Money is the only thing Americans understand. Let's hope they understand what this means.

The ship is starting to sink......

Money is the only thing Brits understand. Let's hope they understand what this means.

The ship is starting to sink......

Money is the only thing Europeans understand. Let's hope they understand what this means.

The ship is starting to sink......

Money is the only thing (insert nationality here) understand. Let's hope they understand what this means.

Geezus, has it dawned on people yet that the whole world, rich and poor alike, is utterly, deletriously obsessed with $$฿฿¥¥££€€元元₨₨₩₩? Each country plays the game differently. Choose your personal bias and then play pretend that it's singular.

[TTom911]

Thailand is about to hit the 10000 dollar per capita GDP limit. Countries get to that point simply by cheap labour and copying everything from the West but after that the economic growth gets much more difficult.

It would require more innovation, better business climate, better laws, better justice system, better policing and much less corruption. At the same time Thailand is already losing jobs to even more cheap neighboring countries so there will be soon an economic crisis here.

YES, MAN, you hit the nail on the head... !!!

And, again, I think we have to come back to what I (and many others, I suppose) see as the CORE OF THE PROBLEM, and that is "CORRUPTION" (in all it's diverse shades of grey).

The real problem of "Corruption" is that it stifles change, adoption, progress (which would be all for the Thai people themselves to decide which direction to take). But as long as an intricate network of vested interests and "balance of power/dependency" exist, where no party of that network wants to move coz "movement" means "change", and "change" means (most likely) "loss/reduced" control (i.e. money), as long as this is not changing, all wisdom will lead nowhere. The sad thing, and the danger, is that only "very unpleasant situations" will trigger such inevitable changes for the better, rather than "timely, wise, healthy progress/change".

But then, "elites" everywhere in the world fear change, they cling on and sit on the problems as long as they possibly can. "Human nature" - but some (like the Thai) would have the chance to learn from the same mistakes which other countries did before them and try and not step into the same traps, but...

Edited November 14, 2013 by TTom911

[sgtsabai]

thaistocks, apparently you haven't bought anything or been to the market in the last few years. You should hear my wife every time she comes back from shopping, whether it be Tesco, Big C, the local markets etc. Now I've only been here 11 yrs, but I know full well that inflation has been bad. Now inflation is something I do complain about, but not near as much as my Thai wife.

I certainly don't know enough to know if the bubble that I, along with many other ex-pats and at least some Thais, perceive is finally starting to burst but I would be rather hesitant about investing right now.

A lot of the Thai bashing, and yes I am guilty at times, especially about Thai driving (well they call it driving), on here reminds me of when I was living in small communities in New Mexico and we had the influx of Californicators and Yankees come to the quiet of the country life. All they did was complain and try to change it to where they came from. Yes our roads weren't the best, one had to be responsible for keeping oneself safe at times, we cut our own firewood, grew, killed and caught most of our food, fought the snow, communication wasn't the best (no cell phones back in those days and no internet-not even when they became available in most places, some places no land line), government was corrupt-based on the "Patron system". Most of us liked the freedom we had there, not what the city dwellers brought with them. In a village meeting once I told a lady that kept complaining about "law enforcement" etc., etc. if she didn't like it there to take her yankee ass back to New York, standing applause, a big smile from the sheriff and she shut up.

All of us have freedoms here and a life style that back where we came from would be impossible. Yes we complain, but use some logic in the complaints.

[belg]

smart people that withdraw their money

as nobody knows what will happen in this banana style governement

thai investors might be pleased to see those pesky bad farang go, so they can speculate even more in the future

a bit of panic is always good to buy low and afther the storm is gone, 100%+ profits when stock goes back

[RuskiCat]

A bit of light relief

http://notthenation.com/2013/04/stock-market-correction-delights-poorest-stupidest-expats/

I was just going to write this same exact thing... But they already wrote it so much better! Brilliant, Thai visa memebers in a nutshell.

[johnlandy]

Good. Pull it all out, and let's see if Thais continue with their unfounded arrogance.

They will!!

After all they are the "master race"

Google Forbes Thailand 'the bubble is gonna burst' and will be as bad as 1997.

But of course these cretins will tell you 'mai mii pan haa' and put their heads back in the sand

[jdinasia]

But this is a & exaggerated if not outright nonsense news headline, I mean where are these global investors going to instead? The indebted no growth West, at similar valuation matrixes but then with very little or no dividends? Or washed out gold? Or 0-1% returns on US$, itself a currency with a questionable future. Thai listed companies overall have very little debt and clean balance sheets. Their earnings growth rates are double it not triple those of the developed countries and corporate income taxes here have just been cut 1/3 over the past 2 years. So profit margins are on the up, overall.

Political squabbling and commotion is the norm here for decades and does not affect much or for long, as is shown in the long past. The just past events if anything are positive as they show the masses won't put up with pardon's for past ill behavior. Ha its a buying opportunity, watch and see and learn.

They are going back to the US which has historically high stock markets and corporate profits.

(I still have some investments there, but have bought almost nothing there in the last 10 years, Thailand makes more sense for me now)

[phitsanulokjohn]

Is this the start of the bubble going pop?Hope so.

[EyesWideOpen]

A bit of light relief

http://notthenation.com/2013/04/stock-market-correction-delights-poorest-stupidest-expats/

I was just going to write this same exact thing... But they already wrote it so much better! Brilliant, Thai visa memebers in a nutshell.

The process of commentary on the actions of Thailand by TV members is really very simple. It is

called the balcony view of the world. Meaning we are sitting up in the balcony, and on stage

is the odd behavior of the Thai government. We cannot effect what is going on, but

we certainly can comment on it if something happens that is especially bizarre. If the goings on

happening on the stage get really wild, and the theater looks like it may burn down, then it is

time to leave the building. In simplistic terms, this is also called freedom of speech......

Ok let me make it more clear for you. If a Thai person lived in America, and he complained about high taxes

or some other aspect of the government he did not like, and an American told the Thai guy

he should fly back to Thailand if he did not like America, the Thai guy would think the American

guy was nuts. And that is about how I feel about the posters advocating that anyone who comments

negatively about Thailand should get a on a jet and go home.......

Regarding Thailand going down in flames, just have to wait and see. It happened in 1997, and

and can happen again. I personally hope it does not. But with Moodys and the IMF giving

warnings to Thailand, that is certainly something to be concerned about.

Edited November 14, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[TTom911]

The process of commentary on the actions of Thailand by TV members is really very simple. It is

called the balcony view of the world. Meaning we are sitting up in the balcony, and on stage

is the odd behavior of the Thai government. We cannot effect what is going on, but

we certainly can comment on it if something happens that is especially bizarre. If the goings on

happening on the stage get really wild, and the theater looks like it may burn down, then it is

time to leave the building. In simplistic terms, this is also called freedom of speech......

Ok let me make it more clear for you. If a Thai person lived in America, and he complained about high taxes

or some other aspect of the government he did not like, and an American told the Thai guy

he should fly back to Thailand if he did not like America, the Thai guy would think the American

guy was nuts. And that is about how I feel about the posters advocating that anyone who comments

negatively about Thailand should get a on a jet and go home.......

So, what's your point?

Sure, admitted, there is always the element that "the local defends his turf against the outsider/foreigner" (whether it is American, Thai or any other nationality or even ethnic group). Admitted, accepted, that how people are all over the world.

But I disagree that what is raised here on TV is aiming "to bash Thailand". Beside every countryman's desire to defends one's country position there are also FACTS ! And the fact can support "the local" or maybe "the foreigner".

Many short statements here may look as "bashing Thai(land)" but the background of those comments are in most cases, I believe, are based on very real experiences, pointing at the real, fundamental problems here (how many times was "corruption" mentioned). Everyone likes "good news" more than "bad news", but shooting the messenger isn't gonna help... Disregarding those comments as pure "negativity" and it's authors as "moaning morons" is simply ignoring the core of the problem for which the Thai themselves, in particular the young, might pay a high price down the line, if they don't try harder and more successfully to get their house in order - for THEMSELVES first, and for us, the farangs, as far second line beneficiaries...

Edited November 14, 2013 by TTom911

[Firefan]

I just checked the YTD return of the SET here: http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/marketsummary.do?language=en&country=US

(scroll a bit down to the right). It's up about 1% year to date yesterday (up another 1% as I type this).

That is actually quite a bit better than most emerging markets - and I must admit that I find the Thai stock market incredibly resilient when comes to what goes on politically and financially in Thailand and internationally. Even with natural disasters, political turmoil, coups and civil "war" the markets bounce a bit around - but it seems that "everybody" now knows that the internal squabbles in Thailand is just that - nobody wants to see a total meltdown - so the markets act accordingly - seeing dips as buying opportunities.

The outflows of foreign investments is probably a question of lowering risk for when/if the tapering will come - emerging markets need new big loans for development much more than developed (EU/USA/Japan Etc.) needs them -so risk is taken off the table and money have moved especially to USA (up 20%+ YTD) - which also reduces currency risk for USD based investors/funds.

I am personally waiting for a good time to get into the Thai market again - so a drop down towards the 1000-1100ish for the SET would fit me nicely , I just do not see that happening.

Cheers!

[johnopolo]

I know someone running an Australian Forex Investment Program. Minimum $50,000 U.S.D.

(He says it has been returning 10-20% monthly for the past 3+ years)

I asked him about the U.S.D. collapsing, etc...he said, "In Forex, the more volatile the market, the better the returns."

(They use some advanced software that check 400 indicators simultaneously 24 hours a day and although there is some risk, there is a stop loss in place)

"He says it has been returning 10-20% monthly for the past 3+ years".

Hahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha .......

No doubt some of the rocket scientists posting on these forums will bite.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha ........

[SuwadeeS]

I hope the world will wake up and withdraw all the investment.

Thais with their unfounded arrogance and fashism, need a lesson.

[Benmart]

Good. Pull it all out, and let's see if Thais continue with their unfounded arrogance.

I think it's more than mere arrogance. The fiscal strategies that the BOT and the current regime have embarked on are fret with negative consequences. Added to the political strife, the overall outlook is bleak.

While it may be good news for expats should the Baht suffer even further, the losers will be the average Thais, many of whom are living on the edge of a very high credit cliff.

[Benmart]

Is this the start of the bubble going pop?Hope so.

It read well until "Hope so". I try to refrain for wishing evil on others. Not only is it the right thing to do, but it may keep me from having to explain "why" later on. Then again, it takes believing in more than just myself and my existence here on the Big Blue Marble.

[nahkit]

There was an interesting article last week posted by somebody that had a link to Forbes magazine. The title of the post was something like the bubble bursting. Fascinating reading.

Apologies to the kind poster whose name I have forgotten.

If you can find it, it shows so much statistical information to back up the hypothesis put forward and opinion. It also gave opinions of three Thai businessmen caught up in the 1997 debacle. For expats with currency coming in it pointed the way forward for exchange rates and really pulled the rug from under Yingluck's populist policies.

Is this the article you refer to?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/

[ajs500]

It is not just the foreigners that are pulling their investment out of Thailand.

My Thai father in law has also done the same. Especially his millions he put into government bonds. He fears the government banks holding his money will go bust.

This sort of thing makes me happy I've always been boracic.

[thailiketoo]

Good. Pull it all out, and let's see if Thais continue with their unfounded arrogance.

You must have mistyped. I'm sure you meant Western people not Thais.

Today

Set index 1,420.56 15.79 1.12% UP

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SET:IND

Edited November 14, 2013 by thailiketoo

[Beetlejuice]

Isn’t this rather a case of hysteria?

The tell tale signs that all is not well, are if large foreign companies begin pulling out of Thailand on mass. Also consider what happened during the great recession of the late 1990s, all the Thai banks remained intact. And also consider what happened during the coup when Thaksin was ousted, The Government was at it`s most unstable for decades and still the country managed to hold it`s self-together, plus all the disputes there have been in the last 10 years.

This present situation is just a load of hot air blowing in the wind and I cannot see these disputes escalating into a full-scale civil war, especially now we are in the Asien community, Thailand will never allow this to happen, it has too much to lose.

This is not just wishful thinking. Trust me on this one.

[thailiketoo]

I just checked the YTD return of the SET here: http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/marketsummary.do?language=en&country=US

(scroll a bit down to the right). It's up about 1% year to date yesterday (up another 1% as I type this).

That is actually quite a bit better than most emerging markets - and I must admit that I find the Thai stock market incredibly resilient when comes to what goes on politically and financially in Thailand and internationally. Even with natural disasters, political turmoil, coups and civil "war" the markets bounce a bit around - but it seems that "everybody" now knows that the internal squabbles in Thailand is just that - nobody wants to see a total meltdown - so the markets act accordingly - seeing dips as buying opportunities.

The outflows of foreign investments is probably a question of lowering risk for when/if the tapering will come - emerging markets need new big loans for development much more than developed (EU/USA/Japan Etc.) needs them -so risk is taken off the table and money have moved especially to USA (up 20%+ YTD) - which also reduces currency risk for USD based investors/funds.

I am personally waiting for a good time to get into the Thai market again - so a drop down towards the 1000-1100ish for the SET would fit me nicely , I just do not see that happening.

Cheers!

SET Index 100 Year To Date: +4.88 1-Year: +14.19% 52-Week Range: 1,260.08 - 1,649.77

Edited November 14, 2013 by thailiketoo