Civil War in Thailand? Anyone else afraid?

[billd766]

lol! they are all aware that they are getting more for their rice than they were before. and they know why!

They are also all aware that the costs of growing that rice is more expensive too and onbalance they are NOT that much better off and despite all the promises of the government and both PMs the are also NOT rich in six months.

[Jingthing]

As a basis for comparison, the red and blue shirts in America (read Rep/Dem) are constantly at each others throats. But we don't worry much about a Civil War. Same same Thailand.

Did you miss the violent events, especially the Burning of Bangkok, that have periodically happened in Thailand in recent years?

Concern about civil war in Thailand is quite rational.

Edited November 20, 2013 by Jingthing

[krisb]

War, god god yal, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

[jmccarty]

Will take a lot more than a few hundred baht a day and free drinks and rice to get them to raise up and fight the army!

[willyumiii]

And you probably believe the civil war in the US was about slavery too!

[h90]

As a basis for comparison, the red and blue shirts in America (read Rep/Dem) are constantly at each others throats. But we don't worry much about a Civil War. Same same Thailand.

No it is not...The Democrats are a party like Rep/Dem but PTP (PPP, TRT) isn't a party. It is a movement with an owner who control them.

[willyumiii]

lol! they are all aware that they are getting more for their rice than they were before. and they know why!

Talking the talk from old Bangkok?

Or have you walked the walk in the flood and mud of Isaan?

They are not getting more up here and yes, they do know why.

Getting ripped off by millers and fat cat middle men makes the money less, if they ever get paid!

Yes, In fact, they have not even been paid yet!

There is no money to buy seed and fertilizer for the next crop until the last has been paid for.

Not being paid is getting paid far less than they were before!

Need to read your TV more often Ay! This has all been posted before.

Edited November 20, 2013 by willyumiii

[h90]

lol! they are all aware that they are getting more for their rice than they were before. and they know why!

Talking the talk from old Bangkok?

Or have you walked the walk in the flood and mud of Isaan?

They are not getting more up here and yes, they do know why.

Getting ripped off by millers and fat cat middle men makes the money less, if they ever get paid!

Yes, In fact, they have not even been paid yet!

There is no money to buy seed and fertilizer for the next crop until the last has been paid for.

Not being paid is getting paid far less than they were before!

Need to read your TV more often Ay! This has all been posted before.

But it has something good. More and more organic rice can be seen and direct marketing.

Without big leaders rice scam far less would have waken up.

[Berkshire]

As a basis for comparison, the red and blue shirts in America (read Rep/Dem) are constantly at each others throats. But we don't worry much about a Civil War. Same same Thailand.

who is we?

We American dudes.

[Berkshire]

As a basis for comparison, the red and blue shirts in America (read Rep/Dem) are constantly at each others throats. But we don't worry much about a Civil War. Same same Thailand.

Did you miss the violent events, especially the Burning of Bangkok, that have periodically happened in Thailand in recent years?

Concern about civil war in Thailand is quite rational.

Yes, demonstrations, sometimes violent, do occur. And rallies. And protests. Even military coups. But an all-out Civil War? Most Thais I know don't want to have anything to do with politics.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

What would scare me would be the army going up against red shirts in the north or north east.

Not as much as the army itself breaking up in various factions and having a go at each other.

Which is unlikely now, but won't be in the not too distant future.

[Berkshire]

As a basis for comparison, the red and blue shirts in America (read Rep/Dem) are constantly at each others throats. But we don't worry much about a Civil War. Same same Thailand.

No it is not...The Democrats are a party like Rep/Dem but PTP (PPP, TRT) isn't a party. It is a movement with an owner who control them.

You're talking semantics. The parties in power (in the US) are always fighting about something. And there are "movements" for every known cause. It's called a democracy. The Thais are practicing it. Can you imagine the common North Korean citizen protesting?

[Orac]

Will take a lot more than a few hundred baht a day and free drinks and rice to get them to raise up and fight the army!

Given that a large proportion of the army are conscripts from the North/North East I would be unsure how stable the army would be if things deteriorated significantly.

[thailiketoo]

The army has had a lot of practice. 11 successful and 9 unsuccessful coups since 1900.

[CaptHaddock]

Well the Constitutional Court took a step in the direction of civil war today. Funny that so far I only see reportage of the Court's decision in the foreign press.

[Water Buffalo]

I'm not too concerned. Hopefully i will be in Isaan before it kicks off and will feel sorry for those in more involved places.

But if a full scale civil war does break out, what do you think they will do with us?

[Thai at Heart]

What would scare me would be the army going up against red shirts in the north or north east.

Not as much as the army itself breaking up in various factions and having a go at each other.

Which is unlikely now, but won't be in the not too distant future.

If the army wants a coup, there is no way they won't be able to enforce it upcountry, without force.

[roamer]

What would scare me would be the army going up against red shirts in the north or north east.

Not as much as the army itself breaking up in various factions and having a go at each other.

Which is unlikely now, but won't be in the not too distant future.

Agreed, much more of a possibility. A military promotion system that relies on political patronage, and other forces behind the scenes, is much more of a danger. Bear in mind though that the divisions within the military are even more likely to come to the fore during any civil conflict.

[thailiketoo]

Good think one can't sail boats down Sukhumvit.

[tim armstrong]

Yes the unmentionable triggers are worrying. Also, there seems to be a number of separate but related events, including the recent court ruling, the rice pledging scheme and the impact of Asean on the economy in a couple of years that will produce some big changes. Thais have avoided all out wars for a long time, but I think it's economics and the rural / urban divide that has the potential to turn nasty, not so much the political differences, as they have always been there.

[wolf5370]

I wouldn't worry about it, the current situation is almost over, the Shinawatra regime is losing power - they are already getting desperate by resorting to extreme measures to oppress the opposition. Eventually, if the Shinawatras don't leave politics peacefully then there will be another bloodless coup d'etat but no civil war. They might have money but their real power comes from the people who are increasingly being disillusioned by their deceit.

Contrary to popular opinion the reds aren't directly driven by support money, I'm sure it helps but their cause is valid - Isaan has been milked dry since the Phibun regime in order to fund the growth of Bangkok - money which then filtered into the BKK economy leaving Isaan in poverty. This will need to be rectified before Thailand sees any long term peace but the Shinawatra regime was never going to help them.

There will be more elites taking advantage of their plight to strengthen their cause but over time, the older, generations are being replaced by the educated youth - they won't be as easily manipulated and in time will run for politics themselves. Only then will Thailand be truly prepared for democracy.

Nope! their power comes from the growing economic power of the northern provinces who are demanding a share of the political power to match. the bangkok elites are refusing to share and they will continue to lose elections as a result. It may not be the Shinawatras that benefit but it sure wont be the Abhisits and their Bangkok supporters.

I think this is a good reply to a good post. Personally I agree somewhat with both. I think (hope perhaps) that there will by some form of "metanoia" in the Red camp, with the more astute breaking away on policy and finding an educated and aware leader from their midst (like Abhisit could have been if he had had the power behind him and was not controlled by the Bkk/sino elite). Dropping the "free Thaksin" side of things in preference to the change-is-needed side of the camp. This could have the masses where the Dems will never in the current (and continuing) environment.

Change is definitely needed to avoid a continuation in troubles - PTP/Red leadership may well have shot themselves with their own ordinance by making the provinces more politically awake - as they have seen this will also show those both in their own camp (Red anti-Amnesty protestors) and in other provincial areas (such as the rubber farmers), all taking to the streets.

I think civil war is extremely unlikely, major clashes is more likely, but not very likely I think. Not now at least; as said there is perhaps a wavering of conviction and less chance of mass violence than there was (unless such is paid for of course).

I strongly believe PTP made a major error placing their eggs in that one basket with respect to the amnesty and bringing home big brother. This mistake has disillusioned many in their own camp (again this is a belief only - don't ask for links). This could be good for the Reds in the long run though - and may make a "proper" political wing for them. It could cause a political coup, overthrowing the old guard. Lots of 'coulds', but the only way I can see of change actually happening, as opposed to a continual repeat of anarchy/protests, short term governments, and coups.

[MJP]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcC_iEHiFZs

[Showbags]

Yes the unmentionable triggers are worrying. Also, there seems to be a number of separate but related events, including the recent court ruling, the rice pledging scheme and the impact of Asean on the economy in a couple of years that will produce some big changes. Thais have avoided all out wars for a long time, but I think it's economics and the rural / urban divide that has the potential to turn nasty, not so much the political differences, as they have always been there.

Yes, but the means of ease of communication has not been around like it has now and available to the most remote and isolated corners of the country.

Also the somewhat educated and more worldy university and school graduates are all popping up now that they have grown and left school...for sure many can think for themselves now more so than before....it all affects change.

[Swiss1960]

I personally don't believe in a civil war in Thailand. Yes, there might be clashes like in BKK few years ago, those clashes might even come soon... however the majority of the people will just stay home and go on with their own business and life as it was in the past.

I think the political leaders know well that the army would step in once more - as they did so many times in the past - and tell them "you had your chance but you forgave the opportunity to do anything good for the country, so we take over again". And they will organize new elections some time down the road.

The main problem I see is that nothing will change... as long as the political parties are controlled by the same group of people and the same families over and over again, as long as the majority of politicians have their private agenda in mind and not the sake of the country and the people, what ever elected government will be in power, the "game" will go on and go on. Thailand needs new leaders and not just clones or relatives of the old ones.

[PaullyW]

I personally don't believe in a civil war in Thailand. Yes, there might be clashes like in BKK few years ago, those clashes might even come soon... however the majority of the people will just stay home and go on with their own business and life as it was in the past.

 

I think the political leaders know well that the army would step in once more - as they did so many times in the past - and tell them "you had your chance but you forgave the opportunity to do anything good for the country, so we take over again". And they will organize new elections some time down the road.

 

The main problem I see is that nothing will change... as long as the political parties are controlled by the same group of people and the same families over and over again, as long as the majority of politicians have their private agenda in mind and not the sake of the country and the people, what ever elected government will be in power, the "game" will go on and go on. Thailand needs new leaders and not just clones or relatives of the old ones.

Thailand needs new values.

I think it is a fundamental mistake to think that there are large numbers of Thais out there who are fundamentally different from their current leaders.

The entire society is corrupt to the core of their being, generally, of course.

Installing new leaders from the same pool of people will affect no major change.

[thailiketoo]

I personally don't believe in a civil war in Thailand. Yes, there might be clashes like in BKK few years ago, those clashes might even come soon... however the majority of the people will just stay home and go on with their own business and life as it was in the past.

I think the political leaders know well that the army would step in once more - as they did so many times in the past - and tell them "you had your chance but you forgave the opportunity to do anything good for the country, so we take over again". And they will organize new elections some time down the road.

The main problem I see is that nothing will change... as long as the political parties are controlled by the same group of people and the same families over and over again, as long as the majority of politicians have their private agenda in mind and not the sake of the country and the people, what ever elected government will be in power, the "game" will go on and go on. Thailand needs new leaders and not just clones or relatives of the old ones.

Thailand needs new values.

I think it is a fundamental mistake to think that there are large numbers of Thais out there who are fundamentally different from their current leaders.

The entire society is corrupt to the core of their being, generally, of course.

Installing new leaders from the same pool of people will affect no major change.

"The entire society is corrupt to the core of their being?" What a guttersnipe trash mouthed falsehood. And you wonder why people don't like Farangs?

[PaullyW]

To the previous post, have you not read or heard about the many surveys conducted across Thailand that document an average of upwards of 70 percent of Thais who believe various forms of corruption are OK so long as they benefit in some way?

That's just one example.

For those of us who work here, in certain professions, these types of realisations are quite important and telling.

[thailiketoo]

To the previous post, have you not read or heard about the many surveys conducted across Thailand that document an average of upwards of 70 percent of Thais who believe various forms of corruption are OK so long as they benefit in some way?

That's just one example.

For those of us who work here, in certain professions, these types of realisations are quite important and telling.

I work here and have for 10 years and on and off for many years before that. I have also worked in Chicago and Saigon and I watch the mayor of Toronto on TV. You need to do a bit of clean up work at home before you start shooting off your mouth about Thailand.

[aveabeeror2]

My 5 years as a Ranger has prepared me for any eventuality.

[thailiketoo]

My 5 years as a Ranger has prepared me for any eventuality.

Bush Ranger?