Civil War in Thailand? Anyone else afraid?

[tim armstrong]

Corruption is an interesting word. For example is it corrupt for a Thai person to get a 5 -10% commission for introducing a new farlang to a shopkeeper ? Is it corrupt for National parks to be 100% more expensive for farlang because someone thinks we have more money ? Yes the police seem to be the masters at this game, but 'deal's are the norm throughout Asia because there are fewer enforceable regulations and most business is controlled at a local level. Many farlang including me, freely admit that our own countries are far too regulated, and overtaxed. I guess somewhere there has to be compromise.

[aveabeeror2]

My 5 years as a Ranger has prepared me for any eventuality.

Bush Ranger?

Wagga Wagga Dept. Parks. and Gardens Ranger actually.

[harryfrompattaya]

lol! they are all aware that they are getting more for their rice than they were before. and they know why!

They are also all aware that the costs of growing that rice is more expensive too and onbalance they are NOT that much better off and despite all the promises of the government and both PMs the are also NOT rich in six months.

The trouble will start in five years when the world price for rice drops 50 per cent and there is no place for the small farmer.

[AYJAYDEE]

lol! they are all aware that they are getting more for their rice than they were before. and they know why!

They are also all aware that the costs of growing that rice is more expensive too and onbalance they are NOT that much better off and despite all the promises of the government and both PMs the are also NOT rich in six months.

nonsense, our family is better off and if yours isnt they should try a new profession.

[Somtamnication]

Civil wars come in many shapes and sizes. The hostage taking of the WT Center area and Silom in 2010, I would classify that as a civil war.

The closing of two airports by the "democrats" in 2008, I would classify that as a civil war.

I do believe that a larger version of the above will arrive shortly. 'nuff said.

[thailiketoo]

Civil wars come in many shapes and sizes. The hostage taking of the WT Center area and Silom in 2010, I would classify that as a civil war.

The closing of two airports by the "democrats" in 2008, I would classify that as a civil war.

I do believe that a larger version of the above will arrive shortly. 'nuff said.

Why, "nuff said?" Are you Benard Trink?

[harryfrompattaya]

Yes the unmentionable triggers are worrying. Also, there seems to be a number of separate but related events, including the recent court ruling, the rice pledging scheme and the impact of Asean on the economy in a couple of years that will produce some big changes. Thais have avoided all out wars for a long time, but I think it's economics and the rural / urban divide that has the potential to turn nasty, not so much the political differences, as they have always been there.

The real problem is in 5 years when the world price of rice drops about 50 per cents Due to the fact the rich will be growing rice in Africa on huge farm over million acres each growing area and the farmer with under a 25,000 acres can not complete and no reason at all for the small farmer with less than 1000 acres

Edited November 21, 2013 by harryfrompattaya

[swissie]

I personally don't believe in a civil war in Thailand. Yes, there might be clashes like in BKK few years ago, those clashes might even come soon... however the majority of the people will just stay home and go on with their own business and life as it was in the past.

I think the political leaders know well that the army would step in once more - as they did so many times in the past - and tell them "you had your chance but you forgave the opportunity to do anything good for the country, so we take over again". And they will organize new elections some time down the road.

The main problem I see is that nothing will change... as long as the political parties are controlled by the same group of people and the same families over and over again, as long as the majority of politicians have their private agenda in mind and not the sake of the country and the people, what ever elected government will be in power, the "game" will go on and go on. Thailand needs new leaders and not just clones or relatives of the old ones.

Thailand needs new values.

I think it is a fundamental mistake to think that there are large numbers of Thais out there who are fundamentally different from their current leaders.

The entire society is corrupt to the core of their being, generally, of course.

Installing new leaders from the same pool of people will affect no major change.

Paully, you said it The electorate and their leaders deserve each other. CORRUPTION IS A GREAT THING, IF YOU ARE ON THE RECEIVING END !!! So, from bottom up to the very top of society everybody tries to maneuver himself into a "receiving-end" Position.

A truly serious outbreak of civil unrest will come to an immediate end, if the highest authority in Thailand orders all the involved parties "to go home and love each other". Everyone will obey.

An other poster asked: What would happen to "us"? Nobody knows. But if a truly nationalistic power should emerge, it might well be that no more Visa's or their extensions will be granted. So after 1 year, at the latest, all remaining Farangs would be on "overstay".

Cheers.

[thailiketoo]

Yes the unmentionable triggers are worrying. Also, there seems to be a number of separate but related events, including the recent court ruling, the rice pledging scheme and the impact of Asean on the economy in a couple of years that will produce some big changes. Thais have avoided all out wars for a long time, but I think it's economics and the rural / urban divide that has the potential to turn nasty, not so much the political differences, as they have always been there.

The real problem is in 5 years when the world price of rice drops about 50 per cents Due to the fact the rich will be growing rice in Africa on huge farm over million acres each growing area and the farmer with under a 25,000 acres can not complete and no reason at all for the small farmer with less than 1000 acres

You did know that American rice farms are so big that they plant with a helicopter and have been doing so for many years. The King ranch is 825,000 acres.

[MJP]

Yes the unmentionable triggers are worrying. Also, there seems to be a number of separate but related events, including the recent court ruling, the rice pledging scheme and the impact of Asean on the economy in a couple of years that will produce some big changes. Thais have avoided all out wars for a long time, but I think it's economics and the rural / urban divide that has the potential to turn nasty, not so much the political differences, as they have always been there.

The real problem is in 5 years when the world price of rice drops about 50 per cents Due to the fact the rich will be growing rice in Africa on huge farm over million acres each growing area and the farmer with under a 25,000 acres can not complete and no reason at all for the small farmer with less than 1000 acres

You did know that American rice farms are so big that they plant with a helicopter and have been doing so for many years. The King ranch is 825,000 acres.

That's a sixth of the size of Wales!!!

[thailiketoo]

Yes the unmentionable triggers are worrying. Also, there seems to be a number of separate but related events, including the recent court ruling, the rice pledging scheme and the impact of Asean on the economy in a couple of years that will produce some big changes. Thais have avoided all out wars for a long time, but I think it's economics and the rural / urban divide that has the potential to turn nasty, not so much the political differences, as they have always been there.

The real problem is in 5 years when the world price of rice drops about 50 per cents Due to the fact the rich will be growing rice in Africa on huge farm over million acres each growing area and the farmer with under a 25,000 acres can not complete and no reason at all for the small farmer with less than 1000 acres

You did know that American rice farms are so big that they plant with a helicopter and have been doing so for many years. The King ranch is 825,000 acres.

That's a sixth of the size of Wales!!!

Wales 129,413 acres King ranch 825,000 acres

[MJP]

Wales is 8,023 square miles which is 5,134,699 acres.

Anyway, it's a big rice farm!

[Scottythai]

I'm not worried at all. This is Thailand and Thais will figure out what is best or not. Even if its wrong in other peoples eyes it's not for others to decide.

[RabC]

My 5 years as a Ranger has prepared me for any eventuality.

Bush Ranger?

No Power Ranger. God spare us the survivalists.

[richard_smith237]

I was afraid enough last time when the Government decided to end the protest and sent in tanks and troops to clear the protest sites. Mayhem ensued, chaos was spreading. As protests moved towards our condo my wife and I drove out of Bangkok.

Should this mayhem spread nationwide then simply packing a bag and getting out of Bangkok is not an option. Getting on the next flight out is.

This may be an over reaction, but the 'next' one could be when 'something happens' (which we are not really allowed to discuss), then a power struggle could take place without a well respected leader to calm the masses.

I'd like to think that Thai's in general are simply too peaceful and non-confontational for there to be civil war and total mayhem, however a few days of danger and a few followup months of uncertainty are a realistic projection.

Keeping a close eye on reliable News Sources is certainly a good idea.

So to answer the Op: Am I afraid? no, not until I find myself stuck in the middle of a dangerous situation. However, I'd be daft if I didn't keep an eye open as protests develop and news breaks. For the moment, I have no concerns, for the future we'll just have to wait and see.

Edited November 21, 2013 by richard_smith237

[impulse]

And you probably believe the civil war in the US was about slavery too!

Funny that, when I was a small kid, the Civil War was all about slavery.

When I reached the "warm and fuzzy, cultural sensitive" stage of life, I learned that it was about socio-economic differences between the agrarian South and the industrial North.

When I passed that cultural sensitive phase (and had to pay my own bills), the socio-economic differences seemed to boil down to slavery, yes? or no?

But I digress.

Hopefully, the vast majority of Thais are well enough off that the consequences of a civil war are judged to be worse than the consequences of the status quo.

[DrTuner]

Que sera sera. But I'll be getting the hell out of Dodge when they start, that's for sure.

[TheSpade]

Some one back home asked me if I'd seen any of the protests in Bangkok. I asked them what protests.

Haven't seen a thing and haven't seen anything on the news (BBC World) either which I watch daily.

Guessing it's not worth worrying about.

[plachon]

I wouldn't worry about it, the current situation is almost over, the Shinawatra regime is losing power - they are already getting desperate by resorting to extreme measures to oppress the opposition. Eventually, if the Shinawatras don't leave politics peacefully then there will be another bloodless coup d'etat but no civil war. They might have money but their real power comes from the people who are increasingly being disillusioned by their deceit.

Contrary to popular opinion the reds aren't directly driven by support money, I'm sure it helps but their cause is valid - Isaan has been milked dry since the Phibun regime in order to fund the growth of Bangkok - money which then filtered into the BKK economy leaving Isaan in poverty. This will need to be rectified before Thailand sees any long term peace but the Shinawatra regime was never going to help them.

There will be more elites taking advantage of their plight to strengthen their cause but over time, the older, generations are being replaced by the educated youth - they won't be as easily manipulated and in time will run for politics themselves. Only then will Thailand be truly prepared for democracy.

Nope! their power comes from the growing economic power of the northern provinces who are demanding a share of the political power to match. the bangkok elites are refusing to share and they will continue to lose elections as a result. It may not be the Shinawatras that benefit but it sure wont be the Abhisits and their Bangkok supporters.

I think this is a good reply to a good post. Personally I agree somewhat with both. I think (hope perhaps) that there will by some form of "metanoia" in the Red camp, with the more astute breaking away on policy and finding an educated and aware leader from their midst (like Abhisit could have been if he had had the power behind him and was not controlled by the Bkk/sino elite). Dropping the "free Thaksin" side of things in preference to the change-is-needed side of the camp. This could have the masses where the Dems will never in the current (and continuing) environment.

Change is definitely needed to avoid a continuation in troubles - PTP/Red leadership may well have shot themselves with their own ordinance by making the provinces more politically awake - as they have seen this will also show those both in their own camp (Red anti-Amnesty protestors) and in other provincial areas (such as the rubber farmers), all taking to the streets.

I think civil war is extremely unlikely, major clashes is more likely, but not very likely I think. Not now at least; as said there is perhaps a wavering of conviction and less chance of mass violence than there was (unless such is paid for of course).

I strongly believe PTP made a major error placing their eggs in that one basket with respect to the amnesty and bringing home big brother. This mistake has disillusioned many in their own camp (again this is a belief only - don't ask for links). This could be good for the Reds in the long run though - and may make a "proper" political wing for them. It could cause a political coup, overthrowing the old guard. Lots of 'coulds', but the only way I can see of change actually happening, as opposed to a continual repeat of anarchy/protests, short term governments, and coups.

I basically agree with you Wolfie. Civil war, as it is normally understood is extremely unlikely, but greatly increased levels of political violence (a la Chile in 70s or Zimbabwe over last 20 years) are quite likely under the present conditions of intense factionalisation. What Thailand hasn't seen are high rates of political assassination, but with the personalisation of politics (look at Suthep's and Chalerm's name calling and the growing hate-mongering on both sides of the divide) to a level rarely seen in the past, then I think it is probably only a matter of time before things kick off in a less than genteel manner. When that happens, there is always the possibility of a degeneration into tit for tat killings, which would be very ugly indeed and be a disaster for the international image of the country. But civil war.......no, not unless things slide out of control in the scrabble for power after the inevitable event no one likes to seriously talk/think about......

[MJP]

Topic related and associated with Plachons post above, specifically the last sentence. Anyone with kids here have any emergency plans drawn up if things do go, well . . . wrong here?

It's something me and my Swedish neighbour were talking about only yesterday. An emergency exit plan.

[zydeco]

A civil war would require planning, coordination, and execution--for both sides.

[MAJIC]

Yawn.. up here in Isaan we will just watch it on TV if it happens

Haha. You think if the army comes in, those up in isaan won't fight them up country? Burn down a few city halls and the rest.

The biggest potential Areas that could blow up is isaan

I don't know all of Isaan, but the guys around here just stoically accept whatever is thrown at them. They are not really conscious of what the fat cats are doing down there in Bangkok.

So what role are the official Red Villages taking? and how are they being used?

[impulse]

A civil war would require planning, coordination, and execution--for both sides.

I would respectfully disagree.

I suspect most civil wars begin pretty much on the spur of the moment, when some trigger is tripped. And most of the planning starts right after things get out of control.

Except for the "planning" that happens after the fact- for the history books.

[MJP]

A civil war would require planning, coordination, and execution--for both sides.

I would respectfully disagree.

I suspect most civil wars begin pretty much on the spur of the moment, when some trigger is tripped. And most of the planning starts right after things get out of control.

Except for the "planning" that happens after the fact- for the history books.

This is it.

Look at how the horror in Syria started. Protests led to confrontation led to conflict . . . ultimately leading to some of the worst atrocities the World has seen since Rwanda or Bosnia.

[PaullyW]

Well, I also wrote "generally, of course". What is meant is that the attitude towards corruption is pervasive. Whether a person thinks it is negative is their personal choice. Obviously, the Thais don't think it's negative to have such an attitude towards corruption. It seems you think corruption is a negative thing?

[whybother]

Yes this could get nasty. Whatever your political viewpoint, this present Government was democratically elected (as was her brother's before that) and anyone who wishes that they are replaced, should wait until their current term is over and then campaign for the election.

That didn't stop a near civil war when the protesters (with their armed militia) came out against an elected government in 2010.

[willyumiii]

I for one find the corruption in Thailand rather refreshing.

Here, it is known, out int he open and expected.

Corruption exist in every government on earth

In most countries it is pretty well hidden and denied.

I know it gets much bigger than traffic violations, but for example....

Here, I am comfortable knowing that giving the police 200 baht will allow me to continue driving without a license for another day.

In my home country, slipping the officer a $50 bill, may get me off, or may get me locked up!

Up to him!

I like knowing where I stand!

Thank you Thailand!

[PaullyW]

I for one find the corruption in Thailand rather refreshing.

Here, it is known, out int he open and expected.

Corruption exist in every government on earth

In most countries it is pretty well hidden and denied.

I know it gets much bigger than traffic violations, but for example....

Here, I am comfortable knowing that giving the police 200 baht will allow me to continue driving without a license for another day.

In my home country, slipping the officer a $50 bill, may get me off, or may get me locked up!

Up to him!

I like knowing where I stand!

Thank you Thailand!

In Chicago we used to put a $50 behind the drivers license in a wallet. If the cop took the wallet you were home free if he told you to take your license out of the wallet you were going to get a ticket.

But, I doubt highly that your experience was/is the norm across most or all of the US. I doubt ad well that average us citizens would suggest that they think it is OK. Meaning, even if the type of corruption were prevalent, most of the people would acknowledge that is wrong or at least detrimental to society and be looking for ways to eliminate or improve it.

You see, it is about the attitude and desire or lack thereof to change that plagues the Thais. Of course it is human nature to be imperfect, so all of us have anecdotal experiences with various forms of corruption in countries around the world. But, many of our societies are generally against it and don't accept it as inevitable and fight against it.

The Thais, on the other hand, are apathetic or have just given in entirely, unwilling to acknowledge that it hurts Thai society.

So, in this case it is the degree that posters often discuss. Of course there is similar corruption in most any country (where there are humans), but the degree is not always similar and the attitude towards it is not always similar.

It truly is one of the fundamental differences between countries with a more evolved sense of right and wrong and intellectual development and those like Thailand. Thailand is (and some posters here are) 'if I can benefit, I don't care'. Totally selfish. But it's their choice and no doubt they could not care less about my opinion. The point is that the attitude results in a place and a 'society' like.... Thailand.

Edited November 22, 2013 by PaullyW

[Scottythai]

Your argument gets worse as this topic goes on. I see you are truly blinded with Thainess. As I said Thailand will figure out its own problems for good or bad it will be done. You trying to compare Thailand to other country makes you look a bit dull or blinded by your love for here. I am happy that you are happy but you might want to stop comparing these things you are not doing well.

[thailiketoo]

Your argument gets worse as this topic goes on. I see you are truly blinded with Thainess. As I said Thailand will figure out its own problems for good or bad it will be done. You trying to compare Thailand to other country makes you look a bit dull or blinded by your love for here. I am happy that you are happy but you might want to stop comparing these things you are not doing well.

You might want to debate my argument instead of snide remarks about me.