Dim Prospects for Peace in Southern Thailand

[webfact]

Dim Prospects for Peace in Southern Thailand
Daniel Wagner and Giorgio Cafiero

WASHINGTON: -- Since February of this year the Malaysian government has sponsored talks in Kuala Lumpur (KL) with the aim of ending the bloodshed that has plagued southern Thailand for nearly a decade. At the negotiating table are Thai government officials and the rebel group Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinate (BRN-C).

The talks have, thus far, failed to achieve their objective, as there remains a wide gap between both sides' demands. The absence of leadership or political cohesion within the insurgency raises question about which rebels are being represented in KL, and to what extent the BRN-C fully represents or can influence all entities that comprise the insurgency. Events on the ground indicate that the insurgency has entered a new phase of enhanced violence and human rights abuses that now target children. Within this context, prospects for success in KL appear dim.

Three-quarters of Thailand's population is ethnically Thai and 95% are Buddhist. Yet, in the southern provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, Satun, and Yala the majority of citizens are ethnic Malays who practice Islam. All of the provinces, except Yala, were previously governed by the Malay-Muslim sultanate of Pattani, which ceased to exist after the state of Thailand (then known as "Siam") annexed the territory over a century ago.

While under Bangkok's rule, many Muslims in southern Thailand have complained of an oppressive and corrupt political order that suppresses their ethnic, religious and linguistic identities, while subjecting them to second-class citizenship and marginalization. [read more...]

Full story: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-wagner/dim-prospects-for-peace-i_b_4323095.html

-- Huffington Post 2013-11-23

[notmyself]

There will never be peace regardless.

[lemonjelly]

para 3, line 2: : 'All of the provinces, except Yala, were previously governed by the Malay-Muslim sultanate of Pattani,'

Satun was governed by the Sultanate of Kedah, not Patani. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Siamese_Treaty_of_1909

[impulse]

There will never be peace regardless.

When someone invents a time machine and goes back to the end of WWII and undoes the damages done by the Western empires as they were crumbling away, there could be a lot of problems solved in flash points all over the world.

Hard to predict what problems would take their place, but it's also hard to imagine it being any worse in a lot of places.

Where's Mr Peabody when we need him????

Edit: Holey Moley, he's making a comeback: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0864835/

Edited November 23, 2013 by impulse

[Bender]

i am not surprised at all. When you see all the trouble in Thailand for the last few years, especially between yellow and red shirt,

it's not hard to realize that these people, i mean the whole population can not solve any problem at all.

They are just good to make the situation, any situation worst.... a decade ago it was the thai govt who decide the use of gun and bullet

against simple demonstration. They just did think it will take them a couple of days... but these south people didnt bend!

Today it's the issan people who take example ont the south people, but till now they are still soft... that might change.

[garyk]

I am in the south now. As a birder it is a fascinating place. Very hard to get comfortable here in the deep south though.

On one occasion I asked a park ranger on the Thai Malay border why so much violence. He said it went back to Taksin days. He explained what happened. Very interesting to hear there side of it.

True or not I do not know. I am politically ignorant of the facts. I was surprised to here the name Taksin? This guy made some enemy's down here.

Note on the people and landscape. The few people I have met seem to be very nice. Deep south, English is spoken some. Many radio stations on the border are English. Hat Yai and many other towns here are very Clean? Some of the beaches here are unspoiled and quite nice.

Have been a visitor in the south for the last three years now, coming each year for a month or so. The violence is not directed at foreigners. But? Kinda scary.

Intimating at first for sure. Many times I was asked why I was here and ( aren't you afraid ). Now it is a little better it feels like to me. Or maybe I am a little more used to it. I tend to visit the same places year to year and now know the people there. Makes me and them feel more at ease.

Just a few of my thoughts.

www.flickr.com/photos/avianphotos

www.birdsthatfart.com

Edited November 23, 2013 by garyk

[simple1]

@garyk. If you are interested to obtain some background a paper written by a Thai miliary officer might be of interest, it appears to be fair & reasonable. URL is:

http://www.defence.gov.au/adc/docs/Publications2012/SheddenPapers12_120306_ConflictinThailand_Nurakkate.pdf

[squarethecircle]

@garyk. If you are interested to obtain some background a paper written by a Thai miliary officer might be of interest, it appears to be fair & reasonable. URL is:

http://www.defence.gov.au/adc/docs/Publications2012/SheddenPapers12_120306_ConflictinThailand_Nurakkate.pdf

Also note that the area has been more-or-less at a state of war with Siam for 500 years. It was well-known as a colony with pirating threats (like the other side of the Malaysian peninsula). Now (and the Thai military officer doesn't seem to comprehend this) there is a new factor that has come with the emergence of more fanatical strains of Islam. It doesn't matter that they don't have any concrete connections with groups in S Asia and the Middle East (though Thai police arrested a number of Pakistanis on suspicion of terrorist links in Yala in 2010). A good start on how this plays out in Malaysia and S Thailand can be found:

http://archive.freemalaysiatoday.com/fmt-english/opinion/comment/10322-malay-muslims-and-the-perfect-religion-syndrome

It helps you understand why people in the south might protest against war in Syria (as was reported in this forum a few months ago) but not against ethnic cleansing in their own backyard.

[simple1]

@garyk. If you are interested to obtain some background a paper written by a Thai miliary officer might be of interest, it appears to be fair & reasonable. URL is:

http://www.defence.gov.au/adc/docs/Publications2012/SheddenPapers12_120306_ConflictinThailand_Nurakkate.pdf

Also note that the area has been more-or-less at a state of war with Siam for 500 years. It was well-known as a colony with pirating threats (like the other side of the Malaysian peninsula). Now (and the Thai military officer doesn't seem to comprehend this) there is a new factor that has come with the emergence of more fanatical strains of Islam. It doesn't matter that they don't have any concrete connections with groups in S Asia and the Middle East (though Thai police arrested a number of Pakistanis on suspicion of terrorist links in Yala in 2010). A good start on how this plays out in Malaysia and S Thailand can be found:

http://archive.freemalaysiatoday.com/fmt-english/opinion/comment/10322-malay-muslims-and-the-perfect-religion-syndrome

It helps you understand why people in the south might protest against war in Syria (as was reported in this forum a few months ago) but not against ethnic cleansing in their own backyard.

Interesting read on your link & the Muslim author's counter to Islamic extremist ideology.

The majority of the killing in the deep South is Muslim upon Muslim. I guess a large number would be gang & business dispute related. There are also killings of local Muslims leaders who are calling for peace and cessation of the insurgent murder/terror campaigns; would make you somewhat reticent to speak out....

[h90]

I am in the south now. As a birder it is a fascinating place. Very hard to get comfortable here in the deep south though.

On one occasion I asked a park ranger on the Thai Malay border why so much violence. He said it went back to Taksin days. He explained what happened. Very interesting to hear there side of it.

True or not I do not know. I am politically ignorant of the facts. I was surprised to here the name Taksin? This guy made some enemy's down here.

Note on the people and landscape. The few people I have met seem to be very nice. Deep south, English is spoken some. Many radio stations on the border are English. Hat Yai and many other towns here are very Clean? Some of the beaches here are unspoiled and quite nice.

Have been a visitor in the south for the last three years now, coming each year for a month or so. The violence is not directed at foreigners. But? Kinda scary.

Intimating at first for sure. Many times I was asked why I was here and ( aren't you afraid ). Now it is a little better it feels like to me. Or maybe I am a little more used to it. I tend to visit the same places year to year and now know the people there. Makes me and them feel more at ease.

Just a few of my thoughts.

www.flickr.com/photos/avianphotos

www.birdsthatfart.com

yes it is well known that Thaksin made that almost forgotten fading away conflict big. And now there is no way back. Under Surayud there were some minor improvements but he told that it will many years to build trust. Well than Thaksin (his cronies) came to power again.

[Siripon]

Amazingly Yingluck is in charge of security in the deep South. I wonder what achievements and progress she will mention in the censure grilling coming up in 2 days

[build6]

I am in the south now. As a birder it is a fascinating place. Very hard to get comfortable here in the deep south though.

On one occasion I asked a park ranger on the Thai Malay border why so much violence. He said it went back to Taksin days. He explained what happened. Very interesting to hear there side of it.

True or not I do not know. I am politically ignorant of the facts. I was surprised to here the name Taksin? This guy made some enemy's down here.

way back during the coup that kicked Mr. T out of Thailand (or rather prevented him from coming back), one of the given reasons for it was his handling of the southern insurgency, that his attitude/lack of concern towards the south escalated matters to a point where there may be no turning back.

If the escalation of violence in the south can truly be laid at the feet of Thaksin then he absolutely does not deserve to return. There's truly horrific things going on down there and the thing that galls is it really didn't have to be like this.