As Thailand fears a drop in tourism, visitors say no worries

[webfact]

As Thailand Fears a Drop in Tourism, Visitors Say No Worries
By Nopparat Chaichalearmmongkol

BANGKOK—Political protests in Thailand have calmed slightly following an uneasy truce between demonstrators and the government on Tuesday. But fears remain that the ongoing political turmoil could reverberate throughout the economy.

Thailand’s tourism industry, a major contributor to the country’s gross domestic product, could be an obvious casualty, with news and scenes of continued street protests and the storming of government offices in Bangkok scarring away foreign travelers just when Thailand is entering peak tourism season.

As of Wednesday, the Foreign Ministry reported that 37 countries have issued travel advisories for Thailand – mostly at level 2 – “Exercise Caution.”

Still, several tourists interviewed by the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday said they found Bangkok to be safe, even when coming across demonstrations.

The British government “issued advice, saying we should avoid protest sites, which apparently we have not managed to,” said 30-year-old British national Mark Abbott, who was walking down Ratchadamnoen Avenue, the main anti-government rally site in Bangkok.

The avenue sits adjacent to the city’s famous backpacker hub, Khao San Road, which makes avoiding the rally sites somewhat difficult.

But since Mr. Abbott and his companion Kadi McLeod arrived in the Thai capital just days ago they say they’ve not found anything to worry about. [read more...]

Full story: http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/12/04/as-thailand-fears-a-drop-in-tourism-visitors-say-no-worries/

-- THE WALL STREET JOURNAL 2013-12-05

[PaullyW]

Right on cue, then. Let's see what Friday brings.

The political/social problems as defined at the moment would seem to be inextricable.

[greg71]

So approx 6% of Gdp come from tourism in Thailand is it really a big contributor as the news says?

[impulse]

So approx 6% of Gdp come from tourism in Thailand is it really a big contributor as the news says?

6% of 70 million people is over 4 million people depending on tourism for their livelihood. I know it's not that simple, and there are trickle downs, and manipulated stats.

Still, I don't like to think about what they'd do to feed their families if tourism tanked.

[PaullyW]

Many economists believe it to be significantly higher than 6 percent. Some say as high as a quarter when the sextrade is factored in.

If it was only 6 percent, do you think everyone would be crying about constantly?

[jpeg]

So approx 6% of Gdp come from tourism in Thailand is it really a big contributor as the news says?

6% of 70 million people is over 4 million people depending on tourism for their livelihood. I know it's not that simple, and there are trickle downs, and manipulated stats.

Still, I don't like to think about what they'd do to feed their families if tourism tanked.

Cracks me up with constant complaining on here re the scams/ripoffs, and here you are worried about them 'feeding their families'. How Norman Rockwell. How hypocritical. Who gives a crap. Actually working for a living would be top of my list. Bloody mass tourism

Edited December 5, 2013 by jpeg

[kingalfred]

Many travel agencies,particularly from China,are telling customers they wont have insurance cover because of the events on the streets.This is a fact as I have Chinese friends due to visit in 2 weeks and they have been offered alternative SE asian destinations. Agencies being told by their insurance underwriters that there's no coverage in Thailand is significant.

[SamMunich]

As i read it, it's mostly Chinese tourists, that are scared away by the current political development. Somehow Asians seem to be frightened to venture out into strange environments (different language, different food, etc.). They stick together in groups, whereas "Westerners" tend to be individual travellers. So the figures for Chinese tourists are going down a bit, but the rest not so much.

As for the Thais working in the tourism industry, of course there are some black sheeps,- as in any other industry as well. These people should be picked out and dealt with accordingly (criminals into the slammer, others maybe working in construction, who knows), but the rest should be appreciated for how they try to work in a way to make the experience good and memorable for tourists. And of course they can't afford to do it for free, so within the range of normal pricing nobody should complain. My complaints are only about those, that think they can charge a lot for not doing much. That is called a rip-off, isn't it?

Sam M.

[bigbamboo]

Many economists believe it to be significantly higher than 6 percent. Some say as high as a quarter when the sextrade is factored in.

If it was only 6 percent, do you think everyone would be crying about constantly?

I'd agree with that.

I believe the 6 per cent thing quote is more of a face saving thing. Thais don't want tourists to think they are too important to them or the next thing you know they'll expect to be treated like valued guests.

[Kooweerup]

Did TAT recently acquire the Wall Street Journal?

[Kooweerup]

Many travel agencies,particularly from China,are telling customers they wont have insurance cover because of the events on the streets.This is a fact as I have Chinese friends due to visit in 2 weeks and they have been offered alternative SE asian destinations. Agencies being told by their insurance underwriters that there's no coverage in Thailand is significant.

Just arrived back for my 2nd trip this year, love the place. Picked up my tickets from my agent in Melbourne, Aust 8 days ago and was warned of the impending trouble in Bangkok. I was told if I knowingly put myself in a situation around these demonstrations then my travel insurance may be void.

No problem for me as I am staying with friends in Chiangmai.

When I flew over with Thai the plane was full but most appeared to be Indian Passengers so I don't know if they were heading to Thailand or will just be transiting through to India

[marcusd]

So approx 6% of Gdp come from tourism in Thailand is it really a big contributor as the news says?

That may be so. And I have read other reports stating 10% of GDP is rom Tourism. Lets look at this rationally though.

Hotels

Restaurants

Tours

Drivers

taxis

Tuk Tuks

Shops

Street stalls etc

ANd more I havent listed RELY on tourists and this is where the BULK of the Thai people earn their daily income. So 6% I woul state is too low a figure. if Thailand lost half its tourists then i would say from what I see here daily, is that Thailand would falter BADLY and end up in a worse state.... on the actual people level not just car companies etc level.

[impulse]

So approx 6% of Gdp come from tourism in Thailand is it really a big contributor as the news says?

6% of 70 million people is over 4 million people depending on tourism for their livelihood. I know it's not that simple, and there are trickle downs, and manipulated stats.

Still, I don't like to think about what they'd do to feed their families if tourism tanked.

Cracks me up with constant complaining on here re the scams/ripoffs, and here you are worried about them 'feeding their families'. How Norman Rockwell. How hypocritical. Who gives a crap. Actually working for a living would be top of my list. Bloody mass tourism

Not quite so altruistic as that.

Most of today's scams are largely "voluntary" or can at least be avoided by staying away from jet skis, tuk-tuks, girly bars, buckets of mystery libations and dodgy taxis.

Throw another 4 million people out of work, and the crime may become less focused and you and I may find our homes burgled "to feed their families". Or we may find ourselves mugged on the street, or kidnapped for ransom, or... or...

[cocopops]

So approx 6% of Gdp come from tourism in Thailand is it really a big contributor as the news says?

I'm no economist, but I think even 6% (and sometimes they say closer to 10) in a volatile sector is quite a lot. Consider that if it drops by half you have just lost 3% (or 5%) overall of GDP. That alone can change a pretty good year into a recession, even before you consider the flow-on effects...

In the US, 2009 was something like -3.5%. And apparently this is something of a disaster compared to the boom years in 2006/2007, which were each around +3%. A 6.5% swing.

So, based on the extensive and clearly well-informed analysis above , I think it's significant.

[upena]

And, another round of protests beginning tomorrow

[Benmart]

So approx 6% of Gdp come from tourism in Thailand is it really a big contributor as the news says?

6% of 70 million people is over 4 million people depending on tourism for their livelihood. I know it's not that simple, and there are trickle downs, and manipulated stats.

Still, I don't like to think about what they'd do to feed their families if tourism tanked.

Cracks me up with constant complaining on here re the scams/ripoffs, and here you are worried about them 'feeding their families'. How Norman Rockwell. How hypocritical. Who gives a crap. Actually working for a living would be top of my list. Bloody mass tourism

I see that someone has stepped forward with such insight, witticism and mastery of the English language.

Easy Does It.

[jomcondo]

When I flew over with Thai the plane was full but most appeared to be Indian Passengers so I don't know if they were heading to Thailand or will just be transiting through to India

The tell tell sign of that is Did u see them get off the plane in bkk?

[lemoncake]

A letter received from Agoda the other day

Dear Valued Thailand Hotel Partner

It has been reported that current events in Bangkok have had an unfortunate decrease in tourist arrivals into Thailand during this peak season. We have been through similar situations in the past and together we have worked to bring back bookings for Thailand.

At Agoda, we will make all efforts to help you re-fill any canceled or lost business as a result of the current situation.

So before all the regular posters start to claim it only some hotel, or bad business owner.

Or Claim that TAT figures are correct. Do keep in mind Agoda has about 700 hotels in Pattaya alone, 10 times that Thailand wide

[Thai at Heart]

Many economists believe it to be significantly higher than 6 percent. Some say as high as a quarter when the sextrade is factored in.

If it was only 6 percent, do you think everyone would be crying about constantly?

It's more than 6% purely because of the black economy. But then total GDP is probably higher due to the black economy.

At the end of it, it represents huge capital investment and employs millions of marginally well educated people. It's important.

[GAZZPA]

So approx 6% of Gdp come from tourism in Thailand is it really a big contributor as the news says?

it must be more then 6%. they claim 25 million people visit Thailand which itself has a population of just 70 million. i am guessing that all of them will be spending a lot more the the average Thai during their stay. I cannot see how it can possibly be as low as 6%.

[Suradit69]

The British government “issued advice, saying we should avoid protest sites, which apparently we have not managed to,” said 30-year-old British national Mark Abbott, who was walking down Ratchadamnoen Avenue, the main anti-government rally site in Bangkok.

The avenue sits adjacent to the city’s famous backpacker hub, Khao San Road, which makes avoiding the rally sites somewhat difficult.

But since Mr. Abbott and his companion Kadi McLeod arrived in the Thai capital just days ago they say they’ve not found anything to worry about. [read more...]

Odd because this would have been a great opportunity for all the protestors (and others using their presence for cover) to demonstrate how much they all hate foreigners. They do ALL hate farang, right? At least that would seem to be the case if all the "US VERSUS THEM" theorists on Thai Visa were right about how no one in Thailand wanted farang here.

[Suradit69]

Many travel agencies,particularly from China,are telling customers they wont have insurance cover because of the events on the streets.This is a fact as I have Chinese friends due to visit in 2 weeks and they have been offered alternative SE asian destinations. Agencies being told by their insurance underwriters that there's no coverage in Thailand is significant.

Interesting point about insurance ... for residents of Thailand who have their cars insured. Isn't there generally a clause that voids the insurance cover if the damage takes place during war, insurrection and civil disturbances?

Definition of 'War Exclusion Clause'

A clause in an insurance policy that specifically excludes coverage for acts of war such as invasion, insurrection, revolution, military coup and terrorism. A war exclusion clause in an insurance contract refers to protection for an insurer who will not be obligated to pay for losses caused by war-related events. Insurance companies commonly exclude coverage perils that they cannot afford to pay claims on.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/war-exclusion-clause.asp

[Ulic]

The only economists that I have seen saying the tourist + sex trade GDP contribution is over 9% is right here on Thai Visa.

This is still huge but if we are going to start quoting 25+ % when including the sex tourism why stop there. 60%-70% sounds

even better. So lets use that.

[Bender]

The only economists that I have seen saying the tourist + sex trade GDP contribution is over 9% is right here on Thai Visa.

This is still huge but if we are going to start quoting 25+ % when including the sex tourism why stop there. 60%-70% sounds

even better. So lets use that.

Maybe they did include this huge number of shameless farang, decade after decade, did and still do marry trashy bargirl. And buy them house, car...

That a lot of money you know.

[englishoak]

The only economists that I have seen saying the tourist + sex trade GDP contribution is over 9% is right here on Thai Visa.

This is still huge but if we are going to start quoting 25+ % when including the sex tourism why stop there. 60%-70% sounds

even better. So lets use that.

You do know about 80% of the sex trade countrywide caters for Purely The Thais and not tourists as people would have you believe right ?

[aTomsLife]

The only economists that I have seen saying the tourist + sex trade GDP contribution is over 9% is right here on Thai Visa.

This is still huge but if we are going to start quoting 25+ % when including the sex tourism why stop there. 60%-70% sounds

even better. So lets use that.

Well, to get a rough estimate, let's make a simple equation: (figures in U.S. dollars)

20 million tourists

10 nights (average stay)

$100 per day, reported per person (i.e, money spent at business that pay taxes).

Total: $20,000,000,000 (20 billion)

______________________________________

Reported GDP (2012) - $365,600,000,000 (365 billion-600 million)

________________________________________________________

Total / Reported GDP = 5.5%

These are of course only the figures reported to the government. If we double the figures, given that tuk-tuk drivers, shop owners, bargirls, etc., probably aren't reporting income to the government, 11% of GDP now becomes our crude estimate.

One might argue that, because of its black market economy,Thailand's GDP is actually higher than the above quoted figure for 2012; so, even if a lot of money from tourism is unaccounted for, the percentages balance out in the end. I would disagree with that argument, though. Because unlike Thailand's local black market economies, which recycle existing baht amongst Thais, tourism creates additional wealth out of thin air, as people must convert their home currencies into baht.

All that said, if I was a betting man, I'd wager that tourism directly accounts for 10% of GDP.

But what about indirectly?

For example, what percentage of the the construction industry is fueled by tourism?

What percentage of foreign investment occurs because of both the real and perceived stabilizing effect tourism has on a society?

Please have a look at the following report: http://www2.unwto.org/agora/indirect-impact-tourism-economic-analysis

http://dtxtq4w60xqpw.cloudfront.net/sites/all/files/111020-rapport_vellas_en.pdf

If we consider all the industries that grow indirectly from tourism, but aren't included in TAT's figures, even 10% of GDP becomes a comically conservative estimate.

[GAZZPA]

The only economists that I have seen saying the tourist + sex trade GDP contribution is over 9% is right here on Thai Visa.

This is still huge but if we are going to start quoting 25+ % when including the sex tourism why stop there. 60%-70% sounds

even better. So lets use that.

Well, to get a rough estimate, let's make a simple equation: (figures in U.S. dollars)

20 million tourists

10 nights (average stay)

$100 per day, reported per person (i.e, money spent at business that pay taxes).

Total: $20,000,000,000 (20 billion)

______________________________________

Reported GDP (2012) - $365,600,000,000 (365 billion-600 million)

________________________________________________________

Total / Reported GDP = 5.5%

These are of course only the figures reported to the government. If we double the figures, given that tuk-tuk drivers, shop owners, bargirls, etc., probably aren't reporting income to the government, 11% of GDP now becomes our crude estimate.

One might argue that, because of its black market economy,Thailand's GDP is actually higher than the above quoted figure for 2012; so, even if a lot of money from tourism is unaccounted for, the percentages balance out in the end. I would disagree with that argument, though. Because unlike Thailand's local black market economies, which recycle existing baht amongst Thais, tourism creates additional wealth out of thin air, as people must convert their home currencies into baht.

All that said, if I was a betting man, I'd wager that tourism directly accounts for 10% of GDP.

But what about indirectly?

For example, what percentage of the the construction industry is fueled by tourism?

What percentage of foreign investment occurs because of both the real and perceived stabilizing effect tourism has on a society?

Please have a look at the following report: http://www2.unwto.org/agora/indirect-impact-tourism-economic-analysis

http://dtxtq4w60xqpw.cloudfront.net/sites/all/files/111020-rapport_vellas_en.pdf

If we consider all the industries that grow indirectly from tourism, but aren't included in TAT's figures, even 10% of GDP becomes a comically conservative estimate.

Completely agree with you, your calculations may be a bit crude but they are a good way to have a quick check. I dont really know but I would sit on your side of the fence and go with 10% plus simply because of the differences I see during the tourist season with the masses walking around.

[aTomsLife]

The only economists that I have seen saying the tourist + sex trade GDP contribution is over 9% is right here on Thai Visa.

This is still huge but if we are going to start quoting 25+ % when including the sex tourism why stop there. 60%-70% sounds

even better. So lets use that.

Well, to get a rough estimate, let's make a simple equation: (figures in U.S. dollars)

20 million tourists

10 nights (average stay)

$100 per day, reported per person (i.e, money spent at business that pay taxes).

Total: $20,000,000,000 (20 billion)

______________________________________

Reported GDP (2012) - $365,600,000,000 (365 billion-600 million)

________________________________________________________

Total / Reported GDP = 5.5%

These are of course only the figures reported to the government. If we double the figures, given that tuk-tuk drivers, shop owners, bargirls, etc., probably aren't reporting income to the government, 11% of GDP now becomes our crude estimate.

One might argue that, because of its black market economy,Thailand's GDP is actually higher than the above quoted figure for 2012; so, even if a lot of money from tourism is unaccounted for, the percentages balance out in the end. I would disagree with that argument, though. Because unlike Thailand's local black market economies, which recycle existing baht amongst Thais, tourism creates additional wealth out of thin air, as people must convert their home currencies into baht.

All that said, if I was a betting man, I'd wager that tourism directly accounts for 10% of GDP.

But what about indirectly?

For example, what percentage of the the construction industry is fueled by tourism?

What percentage of foreign investment occurs because of both the real and perceived stabilizing effect tourism has on a society?

Please have a look at the following report: http://www2.unwto.org/agora/indirect-impact-tourism-economic-analysis

http://dtxtq4w60xqpw.cloudfront.net/sites/all/files/111020-rapport_vellas_en.pdf

If we consider all the industries that grow indirectly from tourism, but aren't included in TAT's figures, even 10% of GDP becomes a comically conservative estimate.

Completely agree with you, your calculations may be a bit crude but they are a good way to have a quick check. I dont really know but I would sit on your side of the fence and go with 10% plus simply because of the differences I see during the tourist season with the masses walking around.

Thanks. What's your estimate when counting indirect variables, such as construction, foreign investment, public works?

I would wager that over 25% of the Thai economy is impacted by tourism on one level or another.

[Benmart]

The only economists that I have seen saying the tourist + sex trade GDP contribution is over 9% is right here on Thai Visa.

This is still huge but if we are going to start quoting 25+ % when including the sex tourism why stop there. 60%-70% sounds

even better. So lets use that.

Maybe they did include this huge number of shameless farang, decade after decade, did and still do marry trashy bargirl. And buy them house, car...

That a lot of money you know.

How "huge" is this number of shameless Farang? Is it more or less than the "huge" number of shameless, trashy, Thai bargirls that get involved in the relationship?

I don't know all the Farangs or Thai women involved in these relationships and I would hesitate calling them trashy, shameless, bargirl, etc. Each situation involves different people and the circumstances are as individual as the participants.