One prominent expat's view of our 'expert' economic forecasts

[MrWorldwide]

Most of you will know where I got this - sane discussion most welcome. His view of expats as almost exclusively barfly whoremongers is skewed, but its not hard to see where he got the ammunition for this rant.

I feel a tad uncomfortable and put off by the not insignificant number of Westerners saying they hope the Thai protests are prolonged, that major problems follow and that the Thai economy collapses in a repeat of the 1997 Asian Economic Crisis. Those making such comments - and there is no shortage of them - wish for such a disaster for two reasons. First, they want the Thai baht to crash so they get more baht for their foreign currency. Many are retirees - and such comments make me think that they retired prematurely without sufficient funds for surely if they had enough they wouldn't feel that way. Others are hoping for economic calamity as businesses would go bust, many would be out of work and there is then an expectation that stocks of girls working in the bar industry increases. I don't hear these comments from tourists at all, only from Westerners resident in Thailand - and most are older guys. It is a nonsense when Westerners resident in Thailand try to convince those around them how much they love Thailand and how it is the best place on the planet and how much they care for the country and its people - yet they want to see Thai people suffer so they have more money to spend here and more prostitutes to choose from. It really is quite shameful.

[mmh8]

I think the economist has sampled a limited population, possibly just 1 bar

[topt]

Is this the "economist" who was trying to sell his site but now seems "stuck".....

His first point is confirmed (to a certain extent) by many posts on TV. Even those who have enough will happily take more......

However I am not sure most would extend that to his second conclusion (bust businesses etc)- either because they would not make that kind of jump and or would want that to happen.

[Jingthing]

That's capitalism, baby. Man up! I'd say yes it would be deeply hypocritical to assert you have a deep love for the Thai people and at the same time wish for the country to go down the tubes. However, for expats depending on foreign currency transfers to live in Thailand to HOPE the baht weakens is another matter entirely. It would by hypocritical of a Thai to criticize that. Would they not hope for the baht to strengthen if THEY were living in another country? DUH!

The OP is really naive in another way. Yes OF COURSE a big selling point for expat retirement in Thailand is the relative lower cost of living compared to other choices such as Australia and Singapore. It's perfectly normal and hardly immoral for people to strongly consider that factor when choosing a destination country. Only the very wealthy don't!

Edited December 17, 2013 by Jingthing

[MrWorldwide]

That's capitalism, baby. Man up! I'd say yes it would be deeply hypocritical to assert you have a deep love for the Thai people and at the same time wish for the country to go down the tubes. However, for expats depending on foreign currency transfers to live in Thailand to HOPE the baht weakens is another matter entirely. It would by hypocritical of a Thai to criticize that. Would they not hope for the baht to strengthen if THEY were living in another country? DUH!

The OP is really naive in another way. Yes OF COURSE a big selling point for expat retirement in Thailand is the relative lower cost of living compared to other choices such as Australia and Singapore. It's perfectly normal and hardly immoral for people to strongly consider that factor when choosing a destination country. Only the very wealthy don't!

The OP didnt write the part in italics, but I take your point(s). The author of the quoted opnion is a prominent blogger and topt seems to know who that person is - he has lived in Thailand since the 90s, so its not a case of a weekend warrior like myself having a dig at expats. While he makes money from nightlife-specific coverage, he has covered other aspects of life in Thailand over the years - inevitably, his advertisers want the pendulum to swing back to the bars. My point is simply that TV handed him the ammunition - I cant link to the original blog entry for obvious reasons.

[i claudius]

I dont hate Thailand ,i actually like it a lot ,i was here in 97 and doubled my money ,what is wrong with wanting that? as for more bar girls ,sounds like bull---to me ,there are plenty already.

[MrWorldwide]

He's not just talking quantity, but then he's only the messenger.

[brit1984]

only a very sad psycho would really wish for a continuation of the political upheaval, economic disruption and bloodshed

if i met any such person i would inform them that the eqyptian pound has depreciated significantly over the last year or so

[isawasnake]

Average "retiree" thinking about how a major economic crisis will increase the number of bargirls? That is giving them way too much credit.

[Suradit69]

only a very sad psycho would really wish for a continuation of the political upheaval, economic disruption and bloodshed

if i met any such person i would inform them that the eqyptian pound has depreciated significantly over the last year or so

And a falling baht would mean that those imported things in the shops would be a great deal more expensive, and probably employment would rise since exports would go up and more tourists would arrive.

If you want to feel rich, move to Zimbabwe. Count the zeroes and be a Trillionaire.

[HeavyDrinker]

So who is the Economist "expert"?

Reads like typical Stickman <deleted> to me; and his expertise on life in Thailand stretches to the tits and arse of #88 in Tilac Bar.....

[johnnybgood]

As a retiree - and I know many others, we have simply circled the wagons.

Bargirls is sooo... old, who cares about P2P? Or politics?

Peace, quiet and the price of beer / food is what counts.

...yeah, and the penny drops about the i/d of the economissed quoted by the OP

[Diplomatico]

So who is the Economist "expert"?

Reads like typical Stickman <deleted> to me; and his expertise on life in Thailand stretches to the tits and arse of #88 in Tilac Bar.....

I believe you answered your own question, lol.

[MMarlow]

So who is the Economist "expert"?

Reads like typical Stickman <deleted> to me; and his expertise on life in Thailand stretches to the tits and arse of #88 in Tilac Bar.....

Of course it's Stickman but the OP is not referring to him as an expert, he's posting Stickman's view of the "expert economists" whose opinions are often quoted in the media in general (as well as here).

Anyway, shouldn't be long before the mods close this as Stickman has the copyright on the content that was quoted.

[MrWorldwide]

MMarlow is correct. probably on all counts.

[brit1984]

who is "stickman"?

[MrWorldwide]

He's a Bangkok-based blogger - board rules prohibit me from linking to his site.

[Naam]

the rant applies bloody well to many postings in Thaivisa which are clearly based on a combination of frustration, quite often even plain hatred and wet dreams wishful thinking that Thailand's economy and its currency will fall into an abyss.

period to which my claim applies... since i joined Thaivisa more than seven years ago.

[canuckoverseas]

only a very sad psycho would really wish for a continuation of the political upheaval, economic disruption and bloodshed

if i met any such person i would inform them that the eqyptian pound has depreciated significantly over the last year or so

I'm an expat in egypt. A country facing a similar situation as Thailand. Egypt depends upon tourism and FDI, yet much of that has collapsed since the revolution ( now two at last count), tourism has collapsed by 80%, unemployment close to 20%, currency depreciated around 15%, inflation around 20%). So things are bad, but the political process is moving forward, and there is the promise of economic growth returning next year.

I would add, hoping for economic collapse is quite separate than hoping for a change in the politics or a reduction in hypocrisy and institutional corruption - both of which are in no short supply in Thailand or Egypt. State sponsored violence and propaganda are enduring issues found in all emerging economies to various degrees.

To deny these issues exist or need reform is the height of hypocrisy and mendacity, and I would place the quoted blogger in the first post in that category--- though as mentioned, he does have his advertisers who pay his bills to please.

Edited December 18, 2013 by canuckoverseas

[brit1984]

He's a Bangkok-based blogger - board rules prohibit me from linking to his site.

found his website in google already - hardly a "prominent expat" - more like a pathetic sexpat

[MrWorldwide]

He's a Bangkok-based blogger - board rules prohibit me from linking to his site.

found his website in google already - hardly a "prominent expat" - more like a pathetic sexpat

Read more - he claims never to have been with a working girl. Never.

Granted, it's a stretch that anyone would make a living covering bars and not partake, but that's his claim.

[Thighlander]

He's a Bangkok-based blogger - board rules prohibit me from linking to his site.

found his website in google already - hardly a "prominent expat" - more like a pathetic sexpat

Read more - he claims never to have been with a working girl. Never.

Granted, it's a stretch that anyone would make a living covering bars and not partake, but that's his claim.

maybe you should ask him about working boys.

[MrWorldwide]

_{And maybe we could concentrate on the message, not the man.}

Edited December 19, 2013 by MrWorldwide

[djhotsox]

I feel a tad uncomfortable and put off by the not insignificant number of Westerners saying......blah blah blah ..... Those making such comments - and there is no shortage of them .....blah blah blah... Many are retirees - and such comments make me think blah blah blah.. Others are blah blah blah I don't hear these comments from tourists at all, only from Westerners resident in Thailand - and most are older guys. It is a nonsense when Westerners resident in Thailand try to convince those around them blah blah blah....It really is quite shameful I write this drivel.

Well OP, we must run in different circles because NONE of my "Western" friends have said anything of the sort......birds of a feather.

[Naam]

I feel a tad uncomfortable and put off by the not insignificant number of Westerners saying......blah blah blah ..... Those making such comments - and there is no shortage of them .....blah blah blah... Many are retirees - and such comments make me think blah blah blah.. Others are blah blah blah I don't hear these comments from tourists at all, only from Westerners resident in Thailand - and most are older guys. It is a nonsense when Westerners resident in Thailand try to convince those around them blah blah blah....It really is quite shameful I write this drivel.

Well OP, we must run in different circles because NONE of my "Western" friends have said anything of the sort......birds of a feather.

a newbie like you has of course no idea how often these remarks were made in this forum.

[HeavyDrinker]

I'd wager there are a fair few ''pension brides'' wishing the same thing too and the allowance for the sick buffaloes was how it was 15 years ago....

[brit1984]

He's a Bangkok-based blogger - board rules prohibit me from linking to his site.

found his website in google already - hardly a "prominent expat" - more like a pathetic sexpat

Read more - he claims never to have been with a working girl. Never.

Granted, it's a stretch that anyone would make a living covering bars and not partake, but that's his claim.

maybe it's that old yank who used to post on here - kerry something - he claimed to be a world famous expert on hookers

then one day he said his (non-hooker) girlfriend was reading his posts and transformed his online persona into a saint

if those adsense banner ads on his website are how he earns a living, he's probably still saving up for his first soapy massage

[MrWorldwide]

Stickman makes no secret of the fact that he is proud Kiwi, but this thread isnt about Stickman - its about the opinion he expressed. Back to you.

[brit1984]

whoever he is his, he must be demented to take such bizarre opinions (as outlined in the OP) seriously

but not as demented as anyone who actually thinks / says such things

[FiftyTwo]

He's a Bangkok-based blogger - board rules prohibit me from linking to his site.

found his website in google already - hardly a "prominent expat" - more like a pathetic sexpat

Read more - he claims never to have been with a working girl. Never.

Granted, it's a stretch that anyone would make a living covering bars and not partake, but that's his claim.

He's a born again monger, years ago his site was very different.

He partook, he saw the light and married the elusive "educated BK hi-so", she betrayed him and became like all the others, who initially seemed different, but in the end were exactly the same.

His site is now a general bitter rant against everyone, while he scrapes a living trying to earn enough to survive in Thailand (he is/was also a school teacher not qualified to teach in his home country).

Edited December 19, 2013 by FiftyTwo