Thai polls will not resolve deep divisions

[webfact]

Thai polls will not resolve deep divisions
Nirmal Ghosh
The Straits Times

Thailand's February 2 election will be more fraught than previous ones, analysts say, and will do little if anything to resolve deep and increasingly bitter political divisions in Thailand.

When the Democrat Party last boycotted elections in 2006, it did not obstruct the registration of candidates or voting at polling stations. This time, however, the self-styled People's Democratic Reform Council, in effect the street politics wing of the Democrats, has tried to obstruct the registration and said it will not allow the election to take place.

Attempts to prevent officials from holding elections or to block people from voting could be met by violence from supporters of the ruling Puea Thai party.

"This election campaign will be violent," predicted political science professor Pitch Pongsawat from Chulalongkorn University. "The question is, can the Election Commission function properly? It is very difficult to control violence at the local level."

If the election goes ahead, the Puea Thai will likely win again - like it did in 2011, when it grabbed 265 of the 500 seats in Parliament.

In terms of votes, it outstripped the opposition Democrat Party by around four million.

Enduring regional differences paint a picture of dangerous geographic polarisation.

The ruling Puea Thai party is very strong in Thailand's north-east and across the upper north, while the Democrats dominate the south.

In the lower north and Bangkok, the two are split roughly half and half, although the capital usually favours the Democrats. But winning in Bangkok, the south and part of central Thailand alone cannot deliver Parliament.

The northeast has the biggest footprint in Parliament, accounting for 126 seats. Since 2007, the area has recorded higher growth than any other region, which is likely to cement loyalty to Puea Thai.

Yet, the ruling party stands on shaky ground elsewhere. Given the Democrat Party's boycott, candidates who win in pro-Democrat areas may still end up with fewer votes than the "no vote" tally, leaving them as lame ducks.

According to Thai election laws, a candidate who wins unopposed must get a minimum number of votes to be declared a winner. If the candidate cannot hit the minimum, by-elections will be held.

A successful election will go down well with the international community, and a win for Puea Thai will give the party the renewed mandate it seeks.

But millions of mostly Bangkok-based Thais have shown that they reject the electoral system in recent weeks.

Protesters who have been marching in Bangkok see Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra as a front for her older brother Thaksin Shinawatra, whom they regard as corrupt and bent on eroding the influence of the monarchy.

Army chief Prayuth Chanocha had warned last week: "We must not look at the situation in Bangkok alone, but see what is happening in the provinces as well."

The political division runs through all tambons, or sub-districts, and "the situation could trigger a civil war", he added.

A Bangkok Post editorial on Monday said General Prayuth's remarks were "distressing... but it is unfortunately true that even when it seems things can't get worse, they can". Pitch sees the February 2 election as only a tap on the brakes as Thailand continues to slide deeper into uncharted waters.

"Everybody is pushing the situation towards extremes."


-- ANN 2013-12-25

[Chupup]

IMHO if there is an election without reform first, (however long it takes ) and PTP is re elected, within weeks the protesting will start again, then what ??

[Nibbles48]

IMHO if there is an election without reform first, (however long it takes ) and PTP is re elected, within weeks the protesting will start again, then what ??

The protests won't have to start up again. They will probably be at their peak during voting and then the whole thing will likely explode into an uncontrollable mayhem that will almost certainly end up voiding the election with another 3 Bn wasted.

Divisions are already bad enough. This election without reform first will just deepen the division to the point where a civil war could be very likely. This is the thing that the YL and PTP are totally disinterested in, it may end up being their biggest regret that they refused to listen to a massive portion of their population.

[Yunla]

To make the analogy to cooking, pre-election stuff f.ex mass-media propaganda, vote-buying, whatever, is analogous to *shopping for ingredients* and setting up the kitchen ready for your cooking process.

Post-election, is when you actually start mixing the ingredients, and cooking. The success of your recipe depends on you blending the ingredients correctly, not having too much of anything in the mix, and of you overseeing the cooking process with great care and attention.

Its actually very simple. Focusing entirely on buying ingredients and fighting about which ingredients are the most important, is missing the entire point of cooking a delicious meal. It is the post-election blending process that matters. We need more Chefs and less shoppers.

[noitom]

The polls don't resolve the divisions, the reform will do that. Let's get those Thai headlines straight.

[cup-O-coffee]

"Thai polls"? I have heard of Thai Chinese, but not "Thai polls". Are the "polls" getting citizenship now? What the...?

Oh bother.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everyone! (where's my Santa smiley?)

[Scamper]

Despite one's political affiliation, this election will not solve the deep divisions in this country - and in fact, will strengthen them. Yingluck has promised reform to bring the country together after the election, but she - and others - seem to have forgotten that she promised exactly the same thing before the 2011 election. Once elected, she - and Phue Thai - did indeed push reform. The problem was - it was reform clearly intended to benefit Thaksin, and not the people of Thailand, and not towards the healing of divisions and creating a unity through diversity and cooperation in all sectors of society. The amnesty bill will go down as one of the greatest blunders in recent Thai history. And it has erased any credibility that Yingluck may have gained from an increasingly sceptical public. So is it any surprise that the Thai people do not believe her now ? Reform that is truly inclusive of all the parts of Thailand will never be accomplished by this Thaksin-led administration. If this election takes place - which I strongly doubt - it will have proved nothing. Yes, Phue Thai will have swept every seat in the country, including Bangkok and the entire South. But the divisions existing on the ground will belie the hollowness and incongruity of that " victory ". And true reform will be relegated to an whims of a government that has proved it is hopelessly centered on the consolidation of its power.

[bigbamboo]

I think PT would win an election if held now but I doubt the margin of votes between the two parties would be as high as four million. There are a lot of disaffected Thais out there who are still wondering why they still aren't rich yet as promised.

This would have been the situation before Suthep's campaign. Now it's difficult to read whether he has scared or emboldened the people, especially those in the middle ground, and whether they will vote for a new broom or stick with old dirty one they know.

[mudscrubber]

Despite one's political affiliation, this election will not solve the deep divisions in this country - and in fact, will strengthen them. Yingluck has promised reform to bring the country together after the election, but she - and others - seem to have forgotten that she promised exactly the same thing before the 2011 election. Once elected, she - and Phue Thai - did indeed push reform. The problem was - it was reform clearly intended to benefit Thaksin, and not the people of Thailand, and not towards the healing of divisions and creating a unity through diversity and cooperation in all sectors of society. The amnesty bill will go down as one of the greatest blunders in recent Thai history. And it has erased any credibility that Yingluck may have gained from an increasingly sceptical public. So is it any surprise that the Thai people do not believe her now ? Reform that is truly inclusive of all the parts of Thailand will never be accomplished by this Thaksin-led administration. If this election takes place - which I strongly doubt - it will have proved nothing. Yes, Phue Thai will have swept every seat in the country, including Bangkok and the entire South. But the divisions existing on the ground will belie the hollowness and incongruity of that " victory ". And true reform will be relegated to an whims of a government that has proved it is hopelessly centered on the consolidation of its power.

Actually, the major blunder in this affair was committed by the yellow shirts. As you apparently don't recall, the amnesty bill was very unpopular with a very large faction of the red shirts. There was lots of turmoil inside the pheua thai party. Instead of taking advantage of this division, the yellow shirts reminded the red shirts of who their real enemy was by striving for the dissolution of the government. Had they let the red shirts stew in their internal strife, they might have melted down. And the yellow shirts really had no good reason to complain. The system worked. The semi-democratic Senate shot the amnesy bill down.

And this call for "unity and cooperation in all sectors of society" is transparently blatant nonsense. In what country does this sort of utopia exist? The only ones that lay claim to such a happy condition are invariably ruthless dictatorships. And who are these selfless individuals in Thailand pushing for this? Not people notable for their affection for social justice. As for the "hollowness" of a red shirt victory, why so? Every independent poll shows that the red shirts will enjoy a crushing victory even if the election were fully contested. And everybody knows this.

I did read elsewhere in some particularly silly posting, that an uncontested election would lack "international legitimacy" or some such meaningless phrase. Certainly dictatorships don't care what kind of elections Thailand has. And the Western democracies have turned a distinctly cold shoulder to the yellow shirts. So much so that the red shirts have actually volunteered to defend the American embassy from threats by the yellow shirts.

Clearly the author of this posting is either sadly gullbile or blatantly disengenuous.

[chainarong]

The problem lies directly with Thaskin Shinawatra he was the one who started the ball rolling by jumping bail and fleeing to the UK after the Beijing Olympics and till this matter is resolved, you are pissing into the wind with reform, the further this go's on the worse the hatred and bitterness will get, so that there is so much hate that the Shinawatra family could become a pox on the landscape of Thailand and they have no- other to thank than Thaskin, the political divide is suffocating Thailand and will increase as more people learn to understand what the PTP and Thaskin Shinawatra really mean to Thailand..

[Nickymaster]

Despite one's political affiliation, this election will not solve the deep divisions in this country - and in fact, will strengthen them. Yingluck has promised reform to bring the country together after the election, but she - and others - seem to have forgotten that she promised exactly the same thing before the 2011 election. Once elected, she - and Phue Thai - did indeed push reform. The problem was - it was reform clearly intended to benefit Thaksin, and not the people of Thailand, and not towards the healing of divisions and creating a unity through diversity and cooperation in all sectors of society. The amnesty bill will go down as one of the greatest blunders in recent Thai history. And it has erased any credibility that Yingluck may have gained from an increasingly sceptical public. So is it any surprise that the Thai people do not believe her now ? Reform that is truly inclusive of all the parts of Thailand will never be accomplished by this Thaksin-led administration. If this election takes place - which I strongly doubt - it will have proved nothing. Yes, Phue Thai will have swept every seat in the country, including Bangkok and the entire South. But the divisions existing on the ground will belie the hollowness and incongruity of that " victory ". And true reform will be relegated to an whims of a government that has proved it is hopelessly centered on the consolidation of its power.

Actually, the major blunder in this affair was committed by the yellow shirts. As you apparently don't recall, the amnesty bill was very unpopular with a very large faction of the red shirts. There was lots of turmoil inside the pheua thai party. Instead of taking advantage of this division, the yellow shirts reminded the red shirts of who their real enemy was by striving for the dissolution of the government. Had they let the red shirts stew in their internal strife, they might have melted down. And the yellow shirts really had no good reason to complain. The system worked. The semi-democratic Senate shot the amnesy bill down.

And this call for "unity and cooperation in all sectors of society" is transparently blatant nonsense. In what country does this sort of utopia exist? The only ones that lay claim to such a happy condition are invariably ruthless dictatorships. And who are these selfless individuals in Thailand pushing for this? Not people notable for their affection for social justice. As for the "hollowness" of a red shirt victory, why so? Every independent poll shows that the red shirts will enjoy a crushing victory even if the election were fully contested. And everybody knows this.

I did read elsewhere in some particularly silly posting, that an uncontested election would lack "international legitimacy" or some such meaningless phrase. Certainly dictatorships don't care what kind of elections Thailand has. And the Western democracies have turned a distinctly cold shoulder to the yellow shirts. So much so that the red shirts have actually volunteered to defend the American embassy from threats by the yellow shirts.

Clearly the author of this posting is either sadly gullbile or blatantly disengenuous.

If you look carefully at the right bottom of the image you see a few people wearing yellow shirts. Are you talking about them?

And remember, once a Red shirt always a Red shirt. The Red shirt leaders will make sure the gullible will never vote for anybody their leader doesn't like.

[expat888]

It seems Thais are always just lying in wait for another rebellion. They will never get it right the first time because common sense doesn't exist. Emotional, self centered, and oblivous.

[Bpuumike]

As always, I say enter Kh. Chuwit, but according to today's reports he's not even been allowed to register.

There can only be one outcome to this sorry mess.

[Bpuumike]

The problem lies directly with Thaskin Shinawatra he was the one who started the ball rolling by jumping bail and fleeing to the UK after the Beijing Olympics and till this matter is resolved, you are pissing into the wind with reform, the further this go's on the worse the hatred and bitterness will get, so that there is so much hate that the Shinawatra family could become a pox on the landscape of Thailand and they have no- other to thank than Thaskin, the political divide is suffocating Thailand and will increase as more people learn to understand what the PTP and Thaskin Shinawatra really mean to Thailand..

Quite agree.