This from today's Daily Telegraph:

Turkey first of Fed Taper victims as political crisis scares investors

The Turkish lira has tumbled to a record low amid a deepening political crisis in Ankara, the first emerging market domino to wobble as the US Federal Reserve starts to wind down global dollar stimulus.

The currency has weakened by 6pc against the euro over the last two days, culminating a 25pc fall this year. Foreign funds have cut holdings of Turkish debt by a quarter since the May.

Turkey has gone from star performer to 'sick man' of the emerging market block as the Fed begins to taper bond purchases, a move that threatens to set off a further rotation of funds back into US dollar assets...

If I read this correctly, only Thailand and Venezuela are in worse shape.

The Daily Telegraph also says (today):

Pound will be 'safe haven' currency of 2014, says Citigroup

Citigroup head of macro research says pound could even climb to $1.80 against the dollar by the end of 2014 if strong run of UK economic data continues...

I don't know if I am allowed to post links.

I'm a historian, not an economist, but I would welcome comment and opinion from those who understand these matters.

Edited December 28, 201312 yr by dru2

What does this have to do with the Baht?

We haven't got any political crisis in Bangkok!

Just rumours to keep the tourists away.

What does this have to do with the Baht?

We haven't got any political crisis in Bangkok!

Just rumours to keep the tourists away.

Could Moderators consider a" dislike"/not like post for silly comments like these. At present you only have a 'Like' tick.

I don't know if I am allowed to post links.

An historian who doesn't know how to reference sources??

Forum rule 22) Not to post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles).

From another thread we find the "fair use" policy explained:

Opening post has been edited as per fair use policy. It is generally accepted, but not written into law, that quoting the first two or three sentences of an article and giving a link to the source is considered “fair use” and not a violation of copyright. As there is no supporting link, it is now closed.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/692539-two-thais-having-a-subdued-start-to-the-new-year/

Edited December 29, 201312 yr by Suradit69

What does this have to do with the Baht?

We haven't got any political crisis in Bangkok!

Just rumours to keep the tourists away.

Could Moderators consider a" dislike"/not like post for silly comments like these. At present you only have a 'Like' tick.

Good idea Toot Jai

I don't know if I am allowed to post links.

An historian who doesn't know how to reference sources??

Forum rule 22) Not to post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles).

From another thread we find the "fair use" policy explained:

Opening post has been edited as per fair use policy. It is generally accepted, but not written into law, that quoting the first two or three sentences of an article and giving a link to the source is considered “fair use” and not a violation of copyright. As there is no supporting link, it is now closed.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/692539-two-thais-having-a-subdued-start-to-the-new-year/

Sorry about that.

Turkish Lira (and Thai economic performance) link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10539706/Turkey-first-of-Fed-Taper-victims-as-political-crisis-scares-investors.html

Sterling safe haven? link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/10539579/Pound-will-be-safe-haven-currency-of-2014-says-Citigroup.html

Now perhaps some constructive comments?

Edited December 29, 201312 yr by dru2

I used to be in the forex game ten years ago and I use the word 'game' advisedly. Predictions are two a penny and as often as not that is also about what they are worth but I would concur with the Citigroup outlook projection for sterling. The signs are there that it could be a good year for the pound in 2014 although for obvious reasons predicting the baht exchange rate is more problematic. The damage has already been done in terms of international confidence in Thailand governance and US tapering will serve to weaken the baht and other Asian currencies regardless but nowadays such anomalies (including flakey Thai politics!) are usually factored in and that that in turn reduces the likelihood of the big swings of old.

So unless Thailand goes into meltdown I would bet my ha'penny on an exchange rate settling close to where we are now....... say 55......as a budget figure for the forseeable future.

But of course I might be wrong!

Hot money flows in, then flows out. Pretty much like the tides

Hugh Jarse, on 28 Dec 2013 - 23:37, said:

Costas2008, on 28 Dec 2013 - 12:45, said:

What does this have to do with the Baht?

We haven't got any political crisis in Bangkok!

Just rumours to keep the tourists away.

Could Moderators consider a" dislike"/not like post for silly comments like these. At present you only have a 'Like' tick.

Not all people are born equal.

There are the stupid one's ........like me ........that post silly comments.

And the clever one's....... like you........to post ingenious comments.

I used to be in the forex game ten years ago and I use the word 'game' advisedly. Predictions are two a penny and as often as not that is also about what they are worth but I would concur with the Citigroup outlook projection for sterling. The signs are there that it could be a good year for the pound in 2014 although for obvious reasons predicting the baht exchange rate is more problematic. The damage has already been done in terms of international confidence in Thailand governance and US tapering will serve to weaken the baht and other Asian currencies regardless but nowadays such anomalies (including flakey Thai politics!) are usually factored in and that that in turn reduces the likelihood of the big swings of old.

So unless Thailand goes into meltdown I would bet my ha'penny on an exchange rate settling close to where we are now....... say 55......as a budget figure for the forseeable future.

But of course I might be wrong!

IMHO the damage to the Thai baht is not all baked in.

lets see what happens on Sunday...

The Uk economy seems to be on an upward trend and is forecast to the number 1 in Europe by 2030, yes I know its a long way off but the trend is good and jolly lucky we did not get involved in that Euro thing which Germany is going to have to bale out.

Looks like the UK£ is seen as a safe haven for the foreseeable future and that should see a steady rise against the baht esp if the daft politicians keep up their strange version of democracy, thinking of number 1 and not the country. We must not forget that Thailand is taught it is number1 in the world and most never venture outside of the border to check this out, as far as the ordinary Thai is concerned everything in the country is ticketyboo, the exchange rate is a meaningless amount to them, fine I am expecting to be getting slighty better orf each time I visit the Bank, at the very least until the end of 2014 and a happy new year to you all, it looks pretty good at them moment.