A Suthep dilemma: what if the govt plays soft?

[EricBerg]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

Hmm, so far they have been relatively restrained. Yingluck has played her cards rather well thus far and I cant see a coup happening. If the Police pullback and let them go for their lives in blowing whistles who cares. If anyone is going to provoke violence it will I imagine come from the PDRC, if this occurs then the Army (and mark my words) will get involved and stop the protestors. There are bigger players then whom we think are involved here. The Army must protect the Police if violence is started by the PDRC, thus avoiding a coup. Suthep is the guy going down a dead end street and remember this post if what I have stated is not correct. Thailand cannot afford another coup and nor will it happen if the reds maintain their distance. I think the government will be as soft as possible to negate any coup and keep the generals out of the picture. Yingluck and her advisors have seen this all play out before, doesnt it seem ironic that the reds are not in town.... speak up anyone....

In large lines I agree with you. But the country is going bankrupt in a high pace. The Dubai guy is still pilling the strings. And he is hated much. There is no transparancy in f.i. the rice sales. Suthep has good contacts with high army brass. Things very well may have been arranged already. If the rice scheme stops with a coup it instantly saves a few billion usd per year. The restraint the police have shown so far will change. And then there already have been shootings by (probably) red shirts. When big masses are on the move things almost always escalate.

[KimoMax]

Seems to me the 2006 Coup was not proceded by any serious violence.

They kicked Thaksin out while he was in New York.

It was nicknamed by many as "The Bloodless Coup".

If recent history of the Military's involvement in Thai Politics says anything; It says they will not stand behind the present Government and conduct a Coup on this Government's behalf.

People on this Forum need to look at the "Bigger/Huge Picture of Thailand in general" to see what this power struggle is really about. The Thai's know.

It is not about Sutthep. He is just a Rebel Rouser and a Mouthpice to achieve the end means of expelling the Shin Clan and Cronies from Power Forever.

It there is a Coup; The Protesters basically get a Independent (albeit) Military that takes Control and Reform

Edoted fr grammer and the last sentence added

Edited January 9, 2014 by KimoMax

[Scamper]

The writer of this article poses some very interesting scenarios, but includes one terribly stark factual error. The writer asserts that even though the new parliament will be shy of the 95 % necessary to convene, that it could still somehow convene. This is completely false, and perhaps not surprising that the writer does not clue us into the details of this extraordinary extra-constitutional reasoning. The constitution states quite categorically that parliament must sit within 30 days after the election has taken place, provided there are at least 95 % of the seats filled. If there are only 95 % of the seats filled, the remaining 5 % must be filled within the following 180 days. As there will be 28 seats unfilled - three more than is constitutionally permitted - this parliament cannot by any means possible under the constitution convene. There is simply no way around it. Having said that, as this article is focused on the end game, as it were, it is worth noting that an election that is deemed invalid will put the administration in considerable peril regardless as to what happens on the streets or not. And a vacuum in power may indeed lead to a peaceful assumption of transitional power through the military to establish a bridge in such a constitutional crisis. In many ways, this seems the most plausible outcome. In terms of the tactics the administration will pursue on the streets, there can be little doubt if the last two and a half years are any indication - that it will likely pull out all the stops. The Yingluck administration may be many things, but one thing they are not is inconsistent with the exercise of power.

[EricBerg]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

Hmm, so far they have been relatively restrained. Yingluck has played her cards rather well thus far and I cant see a coup happening. If the Police pullback and let them go for their lives in blowing whistles who cares. If anyone is going to provoke violence it will I imagine come from the PDRC, if this occurs then the Army (and mark my words) will get involved and stop the protestors. There are bigger players then whom we think are involved here. The Army must protect the Police if violence is started by the PDRC, thus avoiding a coup. Suthep is the guy going down a dead end street and remember this post if what I have stated is not correct. Thailand cannot afford another coup and nor will it happen if the reds maintain their distance. I think the government will be as soft as possible to negate any coup and keep the generals out of the picture. Yingluck and her advisors have seen this all play out before, doesnt it seem ironic that the reds are not in town.... speak up anyone....

the last 3 letters of your name says it all

Insulting each other when speaking out different opinions is what we do not need at all. It's part of the problem in Thailand and it makes reconciliation only more difficult.

[JohnP1752]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

LOTS of complete bs here. You must be an avid reader of Voice Of Thaksin.....

Thats funny, where did you find that? I assume you think nothing will happen then.

[Old Man River]

The writer of this article poses some very interesting scenarios, but includes one terribly stark factual error. The writer asserts that even though the new parliament will be shy of the 95 % necessary to convene, that it could still somehow convene. This is completely false, and perhaps not surprising that the writer does not clue us into the details of this extraordinary extra-constitutional reasoning. The constitution states quite categorically that parliament must sit within 30 days after the election has taken place, provided there are at least 95 % of the seats filled. If there are only 95 % of the seats filled, the remaining 5 % must be filled within the following 180 days. As there will be 28 seats unfilled - three more than is constitutionally permitted - this parliament cannot by any means possible under the constitution convene. There is simply no way around it. Having said that, as this article is focused on the end game, as it were, it is worth noting that an election that is deemed invalid will put the administration in considerable peril regardless as to what happens on the streets or not. And a vacuum in power may indeed lead to a peaceful assumption of transitional power through the military to establish a bridge in such a constitutional crisis. In many ways, this seems the most plausible outcome. In terms of the tactics the administration will pursue on the streets, there can be little doubt if the last two and a half years are any indication - that it will likely pull out all the stops. The Yingluck administration may be many things, but one thing they are not is inconsistent with the exercise of power.

Correct (inmo), add to it that now the NACC needs to decide whether to ban 300 plus politicians, many of who have registered, separate from those mentioned above, and it may be impossible for the PTP to have the required number of registered politicians to be elected.

What is not known is whether the Acting parliament will continue indefinitely, and if so, how will they be able to make their previously promised payments based on their populist policies? The rice farmers are still working and have bills to pay.

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[Cricketnut]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

The army is there to protect the people. So you really think that they will hand over their weapons to civilians and attack the Police. Oh my goodness how long have you been in Thailand? Ok, let's wait and see. "Here you are young nong, just pull the pin and throw this grenade"...... Dear dear dear. Someone needs to start taking there Prozac again...

[JohnP1752]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

The army is there to protect the people. So you really think that they will hand over their weapons to civilians and attack the Police. Oh my goodness how long have you been in Thailand? Ok, let's wait and see. "Here you are young nong, just pull the pin and throw this grenade"...... Dear dear dear. Someone needs to start taking there Prozac again... alt=coffee1.gif pagespeed_url_hash=2220208811 width=32 height=24>

Its your choice to attend the demo for the people

[spidermike007]

I do not know if the government can afford to play it soft. there is too much to lose. You cannot let a crowd of hooligans take over the capital city. Look what happened when Abhisit played it soft. It lasted 7 weeks, shut down the capital, and caused irreparable harm to Thailand's standing in the world. Will they allow that to happen again? Since more than likely most of the demonstrators are getting paid, or out to have a good time, all Yingluck has to do is shut them down, once they try to shut down any major intersection, airport, highway, public transport, or ministry. Shut them down. Do whatever it takes, as quickly as possible. If the protestors are jailed, and their families are fined an exceptionally large amount of money, the thinking will change fast. They are in this for a good time, and a big social event, not for prison or big fines. Make a statement, and do it quickly, is how the government should approach this. Take away the power of the goombah leading these protests.

[indyuk]

A Suthep dilemma: what if the govt plays soft?
ATTAYUTH BOOTSRIPOOM
THE NATION

Congratulation the second constructive analysis today. Can't fault a word that Attayuth has written.

[Ulic]

Personally I would just deploy traffic police with orders to pull out if things turn violent. Let Suthep

hold his "peaceful" demonstration and if they riot hold him personally responsible. It's his "peaceful demonstration"

[gbswales]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

I don't know where you get the "reds are in a dead end street" - if they follow the governments lead and avoid disrupting things then who in the long term will be seen as the bad guys - the ones who disrupted things. I am really worried because Suthep NEEDS violent clashes in order to get the army involved and I wonder who will provide those clashes if the police and the red shirts do not. I suspect we will see some unidentifiable people causing the first violence.

It is time in my view for Thailand to swallow it's pride and accept that it does not at the moment have the internal resources to solve the crisis and invite some international mediation. In Britain we waited far too long to involve third parties in Northern Ireland - if they had been brought in before the violence escalated again then the resolution would have been much quicker I believe.

If this continues happening every few years, as it inevitably will, then the country will one day divide into civil war and that could mean a divided army as well. Whether they like it or not when that happens there will be outside interference - if only supplying one side or the other, or both. Better I believe to invite external help NOW rather than wait for it to happen

[Thait Spot]

With all the court cases against the PTP shenanigans in parliament, the protest may yet be nipped in the bud by banning the PTP cabinet

[Boxclever]

What the military should do behind the scenes is tell Suthep to go home as he is leading the country down a road to nowhere and putting the military in an incredibly difficult situation, and tell TS/YS they have 6 months to sort their shit out asap, run the country openly and transparently, cut down and prosecute corruption and generally run the country in a proper responsible way or they will come in behind the scenes or out in the open and cull them, their associates etc out of politics for good. Take it or leave it choice.

Now here's a good all round solution!

[diehard60]

After the 15th the farmers will be back, so if the government okays it soft he can wait/

Dont think they are not getting paid. They are buying new tractors and combines (they are not cheap) Maybe they are not being paid as fast as they like but they are being paid.

[Fullstop]

"Oh no! They might not play!...Think, think think." Suthep can see "BIG LOSS OF FACE" on the horizon. Thais get crazy and do crazy things when that happens. This is getting good.

Where's my popcorn?

[gerry1011]

Personally I would just deploy traffic police with orders to pull out if things turn violent. Let Suthep

hold his "peaceful" demonstration and if they riot hold him personally responsible. It's his "peaceful demonstration"

They did it this way at the Rajamangala stadium, where the police did not show up at the time the "students" were shooting everyone...

Then Suthep complained because the police was not there to protect his yellow thugs...

Funny

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[FLHR]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

I can agree on your last sentence; but the 1st one???? Holy crap!!! You think the army's going to issue an M16 with a few topped off magazines to anyone with a whistle?

[fab4]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

LOTS of complete bs here. You must be an avid reader of Voice Of Thaksin.....

I doubt it, the magazine was shut down by abhisits government in 2011.

[gerry1011]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

LOTS of complete bs here. You must be an avid reader of Voice Of Thaksin.....

I doubt it, the magazine was shut down by abhisits government in 2011.

Together with hundreds of radio stations.

Abhisit, the champion of freedom of expression

Sent from my HTC One using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[EricBerg]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

I don't know where you get the "reds are in a dead end street" - if they follow the governments lead and avoid disrupting things then who in the long term will be seen as the bad guys - the ones who disrupted things. I am really worried because Suthep NEEDS violent clashes in order to get the army involved and I wonder who will provide those clashes if the police and the red shirts do not. I suspect we will see some unidentifiable people causing the first violence.

It is time in my view for Thailand to swallow it's pride and accept that it does not at the moment have the internal resources to solve the crisis and invite some international mediation. In Britain we waited far too long to involve third parties in Northern Ireland - if they had been brought in before the violence escalated again then the resolution would have been much quicker I believe.

If this continues happening every few years, as it inevitably will, then the country will one day divide into civil war and that could mean a divided army as well. Whether they like it or not when that happens there will be outside interference - if only supplying one side or the other, or both. Better I believe to invite external help NOW rather than wait for it to happen

The rice scheme and the trillions for infrastructure, in particular a highspeed railway to China are too much for Thai economy to bear. How will the railway generate money for Thailand? Selling tickets? No way that will pay for it. The rice is bought well above international market prices. The speculation plan from the Dubai guy failed... The gap Thailand created was filled by rice from Vietnam and India. The Thaksin plan of the world rice price going up and proved wrong. Thailand no longer is the world's number one rice exporter. The country is going broke.

The government lacks vision to tackle this specific problem. In other sectors there has been done nothing to improve things. Number 3 in traffic deaths, lousy English, failing or non existing tablets. Number two in teen pregnancies and so on. As long as the farmers up north get far too much for the rice they will keep voting red. And red will keep feeding them money with international debt. That's why the reds are in a dead end street. They are ruining Thailand. How could the Dubai guy more than triple his money during the red government? I would love to see/hear what is done with the rice in the warehouses.Who are selling to whom and for what prices?

Comparison of Thailand with Ulster is nonsense. Different settings all together and different problems.

[fish fingers]

and the country and many businesses rely so heavily on tourism, ironically most of these are protest stronghold's. If the government implement a further tourist tax (the previous one is built into the ticket tax) it will drive more tourism to cambodia and vietnam.

My feeling is that energy prices are going to jump massively too.

[tx22cb]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

LOTS of complete bs here. You must be an avid reader of Voice Of Thaksin.....

I doubt it, the magazine was shut down by abhisits government in 2011.

Together with hundreds of radio stations.

Abhisit, the champion of freedom of expression

Sent from my HTC One using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I would be willing to bet that it was not Abhisit's foot throttling the media - it was more likely that of the old-school hardliners in his party. videlicet his deputy, Mr Suthep.

[icare999]

PTP and the reds are just too smart for Suthep and his backers. They desperately want the reds to come out and engage in street riots to give the army a target and an excuse. All the reds have to do now is sit tight and let Suthep turn Bangkok against him with his childish antics. You can already see that the wind has gone from Sutheps sails and he's floundering around trying to keep his campaign alive. Roll on the election and the restoration of an elected government.

reds smart PTP decipful lying manipulative and not giving a shit about thailand yes so smart for themselves maybe but given BS and nonsense coming from their mouths sorry hardly intelligent but I guess any crook can be smart

[Trouble]

I think "playing it soft" on the part of the PTP is the only chance they have as stated in the OP. They do not want violence and the military involved. Let Suthep run out of steam. Additionally I don't think that the Military wants to get into the fray either. Don't forget that the military is also a corrupt mechanism in the mix and they have their various enterprises to protect. As has been pointed out previously there maybe divisions in loyalties within the military which would upset the apple cart if it were necessary for them to intervene. I think the military prefers to work in the background rather than bringing attention to themselves. The military could be in a no win situation if they have to get involved unless there is a complete breakdown and things turn violent.

One additional point is that whatever happens the rice pledging scheme needs to come to an end. It is really unsustainable in the long run. The farmers must be paid no matter who comes out on top or there could be mass protests in the north that make the Bangkok protests look feeble. My take is that they are not going to be cheated out of their money so the government red or yellow is on the hook.

It will be interesting to see how big the turnout will be on Monday and how long Suthep can sustain his attempt at "shutting down" Bangkok. Certainly another interesting time in Thai politics.