Who is Playing Games with the Baht

[Gonzo the Face]

WHAT Already ????? Who is playing games with the baht. The country is about ready to explode with political problems and shutdown and the baht is getting stronger ????? Me tinks Manipulation by somebody. Hard to see money and or investors coming to Thailand at this time

[Naam]

shit happens Gonzo. currencies rise and fall

[Skint]

Nothing wrong, I got a good rate last week at super rich. Speculation won't give you that big change your waiting for.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[SheungWan]

It must be me, because I decided to change some money on Sunday instead of Monday.

[Nowhereman60]

I like to know where those idiots are who projected that the baht would fall. They are very silent now. Never trust a online FX.

[ourmanflint]

I'm guessing it's easy money for some if you know how to play the game. The baht really should be in freefall but it is actually gaining, all the money will be made as it slides though.

[elgordo38]

I am a Canadian and our dollar is tanking vs the American buck. Our country is in much better financial shape than theirs soo I go with the manipulation theory

[SheungWan]

I am a Canadian and our dollar is tanking vs the American buck. Our country is in much better financial shape than theirs soo I go with the manipulation theory

It beats understanding.

[Briggsy]

Thailand recorded a Current Account surplus of 2294.13 USD Million in November of 2013. The benchmark interest rate in Thailand is at 2.25 percent.

What supporting reasons do you have for a falling Baht? Please compare the current account deficits in US and UK with Thailand's surplus and the very low interest rates in UK, US, Europe compared with Thailand.

[tingtong]

I like to know where those idiots are who projected that the baht would fall. They are very silent now. Never trust a online FX.

and arent the THB falling?

was 3 months ago better or worse the rate?

1 yr ago?

a price wont move in one direction everyday, just because that what you would prefer...

me for one, are happier with this year's rate, than last year's!

[SantiSuk]

The FX market is a gaming market almost by definition. Hardly surprising that people are playing games in it

[Suradit69]

Things have turned out to be fairly peaceful, which gave the baht a lift, but the exchange rate takes two currencies to calculate so there are other factors than just the Thai political situation to consider.

And, actually, I've heard comments from several people on CNBC saying that the political situation is not a major concern for longer term investing.

When prices (of currencies, stocks, bonds, gold, whatever) go against you, that's blamed on manipulation, but when prices work to your advantage, that's expert investing on your part.

The Canadian currency fell because rising unemployment numbers meant the Bank of Canada will not be raising rates any time soon.

[paz]

Manipulation on major tradeable instrument is almost impossible On spot currencies, it requires either the constant, public intervention of a central bank, or the almost crazy courage of a genious like George Soros in the '80s.

The Baht is not the exception.

[BudRight]

Buy the rumor sell the news.

[MrWorldwide]

Conspiracy thread #21421 - and the year isnt even a month old ....

Having only recently opened a demo FX trading account, I'm in no position to comment on the extent to which fundamentals and sentiment override the will of the technical analysts, but you dont have to look at too many charts to see that there is definitely a 'self-fulfilling prophecy' element to the currency markets. In short, if enough people 'believe' that the indicators are telling them that a given currency is oversold, that's a signal to buy that currency : simple as that. Obviously, if the country is in flames and warlords run the capital, you just dont trade in that currency, but the last time I checked Thailand was still exporting all manner of goodies and - at the time of writing - Yingluck's head isnt on a pike outside Victory Monument. Even economists work from data that is (at best) 3 months old : do the math if it makes you happier.

I highly recommend opening a demo FX account and watching a few vids on trading - even if it bores you witless, you'll soon realise that most traders only want to know about news on the Fed or a major player like Germany, and the rest is technical analysis of past trends in an attempt to predict the probability of a long/short 'coin toss' being correct. Apologies to those who know more about the market than I do, but that's how I see it as this point in time.

[A1Str8]

Nobody is playing. It keeps going down.

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Lancelot]

The baht is most likely over sold and investors/speculators have stepped in to buy at a discount.

[GBK]

The Central bank is buying to support the Baht. Simple.

[GBK]

But it will cost them in the end.

[chiang mai]

The Central bank is buying to support the Baht. Simple.

Please supply proof this is the case and then explain why it will cost them in the end.

[GBK]

As I am not privy to the central bank's machinations I cannot help you, but there is no other logical explanation. International investors are unlikely to be net buyers of the Baht at this time, in fact they would be shorting it if anything.

As for costing them, this is a dual effect, that of depleting the bank's foreign reserves, thus further weakening the Baht and the subsequent effect of inflation, as the cost of imports rise.

[yimlitnoy]

Nobody is playing games, the Baht has just hit a long term support: http://www.asiachart.com/thai.html. There is more to it than simply say Thailand has some trouble then the Baht will go down, this is simplistic...

[recycler]

What's happening in BKK is not affecting too many exports and money coming in trough the regular channels. Actually the Thai economy is doing fine, better than many western economies, the US included, so a rising Baht is no surprise.

[SheungWan]

As I am not privy to the central bank's machinations I cannot help you, but there is no other logical explanation. International investors are unlikely to be net buyers of the Baht at this time, in fact they would be shorting it if anything.

Making an effort to read the previous contributions would have helped, but good job you didn't let that stop the conspiracy nostrums.

[SheungWan]

What's happening in BKK is not affecting too many exports and money coming in trough the regular channels. Actually the Thai economy is doing fine, better than many western economies, the US included, so a rising Baht is no surprise.

You might have trouble marrying that up with the 20% drop since last April.

[chiang mai]

As I am not privy to the central bank's machinations I cannot help you, but there is no other logical explanation. International investors are unlikely to be net buyers of the Baht at this time, in fact they would be shorting it if anything.

You could look here next week and check:

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=94&language=ENG

They did seem to intervene last week but there's a week delay in their report.

Finally, THB is a more or less closed currency hence it's near impossible for international investors to manipulate it.

[recycler]

What's happening in BKK is not affecting too many exports and money coming in trough the regular channels. Actually the Thai economy is doing fine, better than many western economies, the US included, so a rising Baht is no surprise.

You might have trouble marrying that up with the 20% drop since last April.

20% drop in what?

Exports of all kinds of industrial and agricultural products have years of growth ahead based on current investments. Just drive around the industrial areas and you'll be stunned by the size of the plants that are under construction and those that are brand new and just starting up.

The challenge will be in keeping investors faith in the near future, but you have to realize that Thailand has always been in some political turmoil and it never seemed to have significant effect on investments.

The major threats are Thailand's labor productivity and increasing cost, if productivity is not increasing when the wages and all prices are going up we are loosing our advantages on the surrounding countries.

[SheungWan]

What's happening in BKK is not affecting too many exports and money coming in trough the regular channels. Actually the Thai economy is doing fine, better than many western economies, the US included, so a rising Baht is no surprise.

You might have trouble marrying that up with the 20% drop since last April.

20% drop in what?

Exports of all kinds of industrial and agricultural products have years of growth ahead based on current investments. Just drive around the industrial areas and you'll be stunned by the size of the plants that are under construction and those that are brand new and just starting up.

The challenge will be in keeping investors faith in the near future, but you have to realize that Thailand has always been in some political turmoil and it never seemed to have significant effect on investments.

The major threats are Thailand's labor productivity and increasing cost, if productivity is not increasing when the wages and all prices are going up we are loosing our advantages on the surrounding countries.

THBGBP Please keep up.

[chiang mai]

To reinforce the above point that underlying business is booming:

There's a piece in the Bangkok Post online that talks about NPL's and how the banks are increasing their loss reserves. Before NS gets too excited on this point it's worth noting that whilst the reserves are indeed increasing, it is estimated that as a result, profit from the nine banks will be down 9% quarter-on-quarter but up 50% year-on-year. Overall NPL's remain under 3%.

[DrTuner]

Current turmoil plus a bit of clashes have been priced in already. For a sudden decline you need a coup or some such.