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Q&A on Thai political crisis - Facts


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Q&A on Thai political crisis - Facts

BANGKOK, January 30, 2014 (AFP) - Here are key facts about Thailand's political crisis ahead of elections overshadowed by an opposition boycott and threats by anti-government protesters to besiege polling stations:


Q: What are the protests about?

Thailand has been rocked by years of often-violent demonstrations by rival protest movements.

The latest rallies, led by senior opposition figures, seek to curb the political dominance of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's older brother Thaksin, a controversial tycoon turned politician who was ousted as premier in a military coup in 2006.

The protesters want an unelected "people's council" to run the country and oversee vaguely defined reforms to tackle corruption and alleged vote buying before new elections are held in around a year to 18 months.

They say Yingluck is a puppet of her brother who controls her government from overseas, where he fled in 2008 to avoid going to jail for a corruption conviction. The rallies were triggered by a failed amnesty bill which could have allowed Thaksin to return without going to prison.

Q: Who are the competing protest groups in Thailand?

The "Red Shirts", loyal to Thaksin, and their arch rivals the royalist "Yellow Shirts" -- who are no longer active -- have dominated Thailand's street protest scene for years.

Yellow rallies have helped to eject Thaksin or his allies from power three times, while support from the Reds swept Yingluck to power in 2011 in the wake of a deadly military crackdown on their street protests that left dozens dead.

The latest opposition protesters are a mixture of former Yellow Shirts, Democrat supporters, royalists, southerners, urban middle class and other Thaksin opponents.

The Red Shirts have staged rival protests in recent weeks in support of the government and have warned the army they would not accept another coup.

Q: What are the possible scenarios?

1. Yingluck victory
Voters could come out in force in support of the embattled government, taking the steam out of the opposition protests. Even in this scenario, election officials say the results may not be known for months and there will not be enough MPs to convene parliament -- leaving the government in a caretaker role -- until by-elections are held in constituencies where protesters blocked candidate registrations.

2. Election day chaos
Protesters could block voters casting their ballots in many constituencies, throwing the election into disarray and leaving the kingdom in political limbo. The government could face a backlash from voters angry about the amnesty bill. Political deadlock could increase pressure on Yingluck to step down to make way for an interim government to oversee reforms before new polls are held at a future date.

Q: Could the army or the courts intervene?

The head of the army -- a staunch supporter of the anti-Thaksin royalist establishment -- has repeatedly refused to rule out seizing power again. But some observers see a coup as a last resort that would only happen in the event of chaos or major street violence, given the risk of an uprising by the Red Shirts.

The courts also have a record of intervening in politics, dissolving parties and banning their executives, and some experts believe another "judicial coup" is the most likely scenario.

Dozens of politicians from Yingluck's party face a possible five-year ban from politics in connection with a failed bid -- deemed unconstitutional by the courts -- to make the upper house fully elected.

Yingluck is under investigation by an anti-corruption panel for possible neglect of duty over a controversial rice subsidy scheme. If found guilty she could face impeachment.

The opposition could also ask the courts to annul the election results based on legal technicalities.

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-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-01-30

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The likely scenario that both the members of both PT and a few of the smaller parties who I spoke to believes will happen, and which explains the total lack of campaigning by ANY parties is that because the election will fail to deliver 95% result, the EC have the authority to call a new election, which they will do, and in the intervening time, the pressure will reduce. this ignores the possibility of a large number of NO votes in excess of some of the smaller party votes secured.

This is NOT a judicial coup, it is application of the constitution:

Clause 93 dictates when a house of representatives can be formed:

In the case where there occurs, during the general election, any cause resulting in the members of the House of Representatives elected from the election being ...not less than ninety-five per cent of the total number of members of the House of Representatives, such members is deemed to constitute the House of Representatives. In this case, the acquisition for the fulfillment of the total number of members of the House of Representatives shall be completed within one hundred and eighty days and the new coming members shall hold office for the remaining term of the House of Representatives.

- since it is not possible to reach this, then the house of representatives cannot be formed election will be nullified

It is possible for a new election to then be scheduled (direct quote of the constitution):

Clause 108. The King has the prerogative to dissolve the House of Representatives for a new election of members of the House....

The dissolution of the House of Representatives may be made only once under the same circumstance.

The EC also has the right to call a new election at any/all polling stations and this is the likely reason why there will be a new election (because large parts of the country are denied the chance to vote both in their constituency and also for the popular vote, far in excess of 5%, also because the state of emergency and other factors have contrived to deny certain parties the ability to campaign, etc etc) - it is murky whether you can apply this to all seats, but likely that this clause would be used to 'encourage' PT to accept a new election since until every constituency has the chance to vote, you cannot know what the result is:

Clause 236

(6) to order a new election or a new voting at a referendum to be held in any or all polling stations when there occurs convincing evidence that the election or the voting at a referendum in that or those polling stations has not proceeded in an honest and fair manner;

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The likely scenario that both the members of both PT and a few of the smaller parties who I spoke to believes will happen, and which explains the total lack of campaigning by ANY parties is that because the election will fail to deliver 95% result, the EC have the authority to call a new election, which they will do, and in the intervening time, the pressure will reduce. this ignores the possibility of a large number of NO votes in excess of some of the smaller party votes secured.

This is NOT a judicial coup, it is application of the constitution:

Clause 93 dictates when a house of representatives can be formed:

In the case where there occurs, during the general election, any cause resulting in the members of the House of Representatives elected from the election being ...not less than ninety-five per cent of the total number of members of the House of Representatives, such members is deemed to constitute the House of Representatives. In this case, the acquisition for the fulfillment of the total number of members of the House of Representatives shall be completed within one hundred and eighty days and the new coming members shall hold office for the remaining term of the House of Representatives.

- since it is not possible to reach this, then the house of representatives cannot be formed election will be nullified

It is possible for a new election to then be scheduled (direct quote of the constitution):

Clause 108. The King has the prerogative to dissolve the House of Representatives for a new election of members of the House....

The dissolution of the House of Representatives may be made only once under the same circumstance.

The EC also has the right to call a new election at any/all polling stations and this is the likely reason why there will be a new election (because large parts of the country are denied the chance to vote both in their constituency and also for the popular vote, far in excess of 5%, also because the state of emergency and other factors have contrived to deny certain parties the ability to campaign, etc etc) - it is murky whether you can apply this to all seats, but likely that this clause would be used to 'encourage' PT to accept a new election since until every constituency has the chance to vote, you cannot know what the result is:

Clause 236

(6) to order a new election or a new voting at a referendum to be held in any or all polling stations when there occurs convincing evidence that the election or the voting at a referendum in that or those polling stations has not proceeded in an honest and fair manner;

Yes, all very likely, but if the Suthepistas disrupt future elections too - whether just by-elections or a full national re-election - then the phrase "The dissolution of the House of Representatives may be made only once under the same circumstance." becomes important as the same process cannot be used a 2nd or 3rd time.

I think this is why Anek, in another topic, says the whole political crash may not be over for 3 to 6 months - being the time it would take for all re-election scenarios to be processed as per the constitution.

This also gives time for other legal proceedings to start to kick in.

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Well to answer your question/comments:

1. members of the house of representatives are required to conduct themselves in certain ways; there is a possibility that in attempting to change the constitution (and also for various other things like cheating in votes etc) they have engaged in conduct which has consequences by attempting to change the mode provided in the 2007 Constitution using their majority in the house to force it through

Section 68. No person shall exercise the rights and liberties prescribed in the Constitution to ..... acquire the power to rule the country by any means which is not in accordance with the modes provided in this Constitution.

In the case where a person or a political party has committed the act under paragraph one, the person knowing of such act shall have the right to request the Prosecutor General to investigate its facts and submit a motion to the Constitutional Court for ordering cessation of such act without, however, prejudice to the institution of a criminal action against such person.

In the case where the Constitutional Court makes a decision compelling the political party to cease to commit the act under paragraph two, the Constitutional Court may order the dissolution of such political party.

2. the current protesters are, like the red shirts, almost like a two heads, one beast animal, although the gap between the protesters this time and the Dems is even wider; in my office, for instance, almost everyone attends the protests and donates and most strongly dislike the Shinawatra family (this company has direct dealings with the family and so is privy to more information than the average person); however less than 50% are Dem voters, they simply dislike the current administration (as do many of the 6m people who fund PT's popularist policies) - since the protesters are not a political party, then dissolution does not apply - this is incidentally why many Dem politicians resigned so they could not be accused of preaching while also being governed by house of representative codes of conduct - it is also how the red shirts operate - they can say whatever they want in their rallies (even that they will not listen to the courts, then say that's speaking as a red shirt, not as PT - both major parties play this game all the time

3. I am not sure whether I can speak to your statement what Suthep does or doesn't want "Suthep doesn't want any one man, one, vote election and will do his utmost to prevent one" - ignoring that no country has the one person one vote plan anyhow (there are various people without the right to vote) I believe this to be true under the current money politics system he and many others see no point in holding elections without first reform - he is not saying he wants a dicatatorship, rather he wants reform before election and he has stated a timeline on it of 18 months which is actually within the original 4 year term of PT. Note that PT agree in concept to the reform, in fact they campaigned in 2011 on that basis among other things; the difference is PT want to be the ones driving it; given the amnesty bill fiasco, the attempts to control the DSI to push charges against Suthep/Aphisit to make them agree to Thaksin's amnesty, etc there are many do not trust PT in the slightest that they are sincere in wanting any real reform and supported by the huge ragtag group of scumbags who are part of PT - incidentally many also feel the same way about Suthep!

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While I agree with the anti-governmenters' goal ... to nix Yinluck and the Taksin gang ... I very much disagree with their method. Forcibly replacing free elections with an "appointed council" is not democracy ... far from it. In a true democracy the anti-government people would campaign to educate and win-over the Taksin lovers ... and if they can't, so be it. That's the price of a free and democratic process. Sometimes you win, sometimes you don't.

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"The "Red Shirts", loyal to Thaksin, and their arch rivals the royalist "Yellow Shirts" This is a supposedly-balanced presentation of yellow propaganda. Are the Reds just loyal to Thaksin or are they interested in voting for parties that adopt policies that benefit the poor of Issan? Are the people of Issan not royalist?

Isn't the key point to be recognised that Suthep has refused to negotiate and is calling for people to block democracy at the polling stations?

Who does Suthep benefit? The Bangkok Elite.

I guess as the red shirts are not prepared to set up a political party that is ready to promote Issan and Thailand we all know the answer to that question

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"The "Red Shirts", loyal to Thaksin, and their arch rivals the royalist "Yellow Shirts" This is a supposedly-balanced presentation of yellow propaganda. Are the Reds just loyal to Thaksin or are they interested in voting for parties that adopt policies that benefit the poor of Issan? Are the people of Issan not royalist?

Isn't the key point to be recognised that Suthep has refused to negotiate and is calling for people to block democracy at the polling stations?

Who does Suthep benefit? The Bangkok Elite.

................and who does Thaksin Shinawatra benefit....................Thaksin Shinawatra!! I prefer Suthep the lesser of two evils where HE is concerned!

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Isnt it amazing and only in the Land of Smiles? Well, there wont be much smiling on Sunday and possibly Saturday, lives will be lost and for what??? Suthep and Co and you can through the Democrats in there as well, if only they had the balls to participate Thailand may not be in this horrible situation. Bunch of political cowards who have failed their supporters, and their country. Period....

You reap what you sow and the DEMS AND PDRC are sowing nothing but division and hate, in my humble opinion.

You are perfectly correct................IT IS....................a VERY humble opinion!!

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Didn't the Royalist yellow shirts have a fair crack of the whip to mould Thailand's history the past 100 years?

Sending their children to learn in the west, did they not learn anything from the history lessons?

Relegating the poor to a substandard education.

The yellow shirts have never wanted a population of citizens capable of critical thinking.

They don't want educated well informed voters.
They want workers.
Now the internet is in Thailand the people are becoming self educated.
All Thais can read about there countrys true history.
Why the yellow shirts educated their children abroad.
Why red shirt children were not afforded the same education.

The red shirts all ways win.

All that remains to be seen, is by how much and for how long.

The red shirts had a very substantial win in China, Vietnam Lao, Burma and Cambodia

And yet the Thai Royalist yellow shirts have paid no heed to what happened to all their neighbours, due to keeping the people so down trodden.

I have lived with the Thais for 19 years.

They are not well known for there negotiating skills or compromising.

It grieves me to say it,but long term, I see both sides slugging it out with weapons, assassinations and little compassion, for years!

I'm applying for my daughters UK passport as we speak.

The red shirts had a very substantial win in China, Vietnam Lao, Burma and Cambodia

REALLY???????????? all these coiuntries have unelected criminal fugitives running them?? Maybe democracy backed by a sound law system would be a better option for them as well then!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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While I agree with the anti-governmenters' goal ... to nix Yinluck and the Taksin gang ... I very much disagree with their method. Forcibly replacing free elections with an "appointed council" is not democracy ... far from it. In a true democracy the anti-government people would campaign to educate and win-over the Taksin lovers ... and if they can't, so be it. That's the price of a free and democratic process. Sometimes you win, sometimes you don't.

.......So is democracy only about numbers - or is it about laws too? Two wolves and sheep voting on what to eat for dinner is democracy isnt it - but does it have a place in a civil society when wolves have their own interests at heart only?

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Didn't the Royalist yellow shirts have a fair crack of the whip to mould Thailand's history the past 100 years?

Sending their children to learn in the west, did they not learn anything from the history lessons?

Relegating the poor to a substandard education.

The yellow shirts have never wanted a population of citizens capable of critical thinking.

They don't want educated well informed voters.

They want workers.

Now the internet is in Thailand the people are becoming self educated.

All Thais can read about there countrys true history.

Why the yellow shirts educated their children abroad.

Why red shirt children were not afforded the same education.

The red shirts all ways win.

All that remains to be seen, is by how much and for how long.

The red shirts had a very substantial win in China, Vietnam Lao, Burma and Cambodia

And yet the Thai Royalist yellow shirts have paid no heed to what happened to all their neighbours, due to keeping the people so down trodden.

I have lived with the Thais for 19 years.

They are not well known for there negotiating skills or compromising.

It grieves me to say it,but long term, I see both sides slugging it out with weapons, assassinations and little compassion, for years!

I'm applying for my daughters UK passport as we speak.

The red shirts had a very substantial win in China, Vietnam Lao, Burma and Cambodia

REALLY???????????? all these coiuntries have unelected criminal fugitives running them?? Maybe democracy backed by a sound law system would be a better option for them as well then!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thais not good at diplomacy or negotiations? Only country belonging to ASEAN never to have been conquered by the West... Credibility gone out the window. How on Earth did they negotiate and parley themselves from all out invasion from the British and the French ? Thais are capable of anything when they are not fighting each other as history has proven. The only times that Siam has ever been defeated is through in faction fighting just like today. Back to the books love.
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My father in law is a poor Issan rice farmer. When I married his daughter I did not know what I was doing.

I am not a wealthy European. I am an unwealthy New Zealander.

My father in law has not been paid by Thaksin for the rice he gave, to the rotting storehouses.

My Wife went out to work here in Christchurch as a kitchen hand to pay for her father's rice.

We hate Thaksin. We hate the Shinawatra clan

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Didn't the Royalist yellow shirts have a fair crack of the whip to mould Thailand's history the past 100 years?

Sending their children to learn in the west, did they not learn anything from the history lessons?

Relegating the poor to a substandard education.

The yellow shirts have never wanted a population of citizens capable of critical thinking.

They don't want educated well informed voters.
They want workers.
Now the internet is in Thailand the people are becoming self educated.
All Thais can read about there countrys true history.
Why the yellow shirts educated their children abroad.
Why red shirt children were not afforded the same education.

The red shirts all ways win.

All that remains to be seen, is by how much and for how long.

The red shirts had a very substantial win in China, Vietnam Lao, Burma and Cambodia

And yet the Thai Royalist yellow shirts have paid no heed to what happened to all their neighbours, due to keeping the people so down trodden.

I have lived with the Thais for 19 years.

They are not well known for there negotiating skills or compromising.

It grieves me to say it,but long term, I see both sides slugging it out with weapons, assassinations and little compassion, for years!

I'm applying for my daughters UK passport as we speak.

The red shirts had a very substantial win in China, Vietnam Lao, Burma and Cambodia

REALLY???????????? all these coiuntries have unelected criminal fugitives running them?? Maybe democracy backed by a sound law system would be a better option for them as well then!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In any case, the road to democracy is not painless.

Its a shame when the elite yellow shirts were sent abroad to study, they either didn't study world history or more likely ignored it!

I agree the political situations have not matured YET in this part of Asia or even some parts of Europe!

Once again our European political history shows democracy is not an over night affair.
Please look at the Spanish civil war that began in 1936, the years leading up to it, and now present day.
“When the old refuses to die, and the new is struggling to be born, monsters appear.”

Until you change the education system here, its going to be ground hog day for a very long time to come.

The yellow shirts have got what they wished for.
An uneducated people to control.
They just didn't bank on it being a red shirt controlling them.

All the Thai Governments are corrupt, but are-

The red shirts democratically elected each time because of the elite yellow shirts perpetuating a backward education system all these years?

The Elite right wing not able to accept democracy as it erodes the power they have held for century's over the uneducated poor.

One way or another, elite royalist yellow shirts and the poorer uneducated red shirts have been fighting for or against democracy for decades around the world.

There aren't ANY country's around the world where the elitists in the end win outright.

Yet subtly ( not a word the Thais are YET familiar with ) ''they'' remain in control.

Education is the ONLY way forward.So I feel we have decades of problems to follow.

beatdeadhorse.gif

If you live with Thais the problem is simple to understand.

They are childish, arrogant, backward educationally, unfair and illogical by nurture.
The Red shirt leadership arrogantly expect Thaksin to get a pardon.
Just as arrogantly, the yellow shirts believe only they can run the country effectively.
Educationally treating the general Thai population as mushrooms.
Both sides are as corrupt as each other.
Neither side can logically sit down to mediate as their both so full of Thainess.
Maybe the UN will get both sides to sit down and talk and bring about a very temporary peace.
But look what Chamlong said about any UN verdict over The Preah Vihear Temple dispute.

"This government wants to sell our country and our territory," Chamlong Srimuang, a PAD leader who has helped to topple governments, told reporters prior to the verdict.

"Thais believe in justice but why should we listen to the world court's ruling?"

When the inevitable event, even the Thais dread occurs, I think the gloves will come of and that dreadful Thainess that we love to take the piss out off, will showcase to the world, the hidden side of the Land of smiles.
Because of this Thainess, I can see a day when quite possibly the Falang will need 3 visas to visit all of a divided Thailand. Red shirt Thailand, Yellow shirt Thailand and Muslim Thailand.
Edited by metisdead
Oversize font reset to normal. Do not post using overly large font.
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x300px-2011_Thai_general_election_result

Can't we go back to the good old yellow shirt days when I only paid 200 baht a day to have my toilet cleaned?

I think your post sums up why outsiders like most posters here support the yellows. It actually does a lot of good for you and them. With a poor majority you will get cheap services, girls etc if the poor were empowered food and everything would rise and u would have to pay more and fewer girls meet.

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