I'm going to be a multi - millionaire or die in futures

[canuckoverseas]

Just want to say this thread is highly entertaining. We need an update from the OP!

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Naam]

The long-term bet is reasonably safe, short CAD/USD, but I have to agree that the short-term swings could wipe out this position. My suggestion would be, at the very least, that OP should hedge his bet with staggered call options.

i [not so] humbly beg to disagree and claim there is no such thing like a "reasonably safe bet" as far as currencies are concerned.

[paddyjenkins]

Just want to say this thread is highly entertaining. We need an update from the OP!

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

The op has gone quiet...tends to happen when people lose lots of money and putting on large fx futures positions is a good way to do that...

[ntg187]

To answer someones earlier question about the potential losses. Whenever you short something, you have a potential loss that is essentially infinite. As an example, if you are long on a position, you hope the price rises - if the price declines, you can only lose as much money as your original investment. When you are shorting something, you are hoping the price declines - if the price rises, you can lose a proportional amount of money in line with the rise. Traders also use stops which allow your brokerage to automatically make a trade under pre-specified conditions (IE if the price raises/lowers x% or price hits x$ then sell/buy x shares). Stops help traders minimize risks and also help to lock in gains on positions you are still expecting to continue to gain on.

[LiorW]

At the end of the year( and even much further) you maybe right. But for the coming days, or even weeks, it doesn't look promising to your position.

I would be worry if the daily MACD would cross to the upside.

If the Daily MACD will make a cross to the upside, I would look to 0.9309 as the first resistance.

Edit: I couldn't paste the pictures here so I attached them

Edited February 3, 2014 by LiorW

[manarak]

a relatively safe bet is EUR-CHF

it dipped below 1.22

I don't know if it will fall further nor do I know for how long it will remain below 1.22, but I am fairly sure that it will climb again above 1.24 within the year, probably within a 2-3 months.

[NeverSure]

"I'm going to be a multi - millionaire or die in futures."

The only thing we know for sure is that you will die in the future.

[allanos]

Of course, there is no certainty in trading (currencies, commodities, futures, whatever) you have to try to find an"edge". In this case, the long term trend for USD/CAD is an uptrend (look at daily/ weekly/ monthly charts) for confirmation. Follow the "big dogs", so your edge is long USD and short CAD. The market is imprecise; the trend is your friend until the bend at the end!

[allanos]

At the end of the year( and even much further) you maybe right. But for the coming days, or even weeks, it doesn't look promising to your position.

I would be worry if the daily MACD would cross to the upside.

If the Daily MACD will make a cross to the upside, I would look to 0.9309 as the first resistance.

Edit: I couldn't paste the pictures here so I attached them

The problem with MACD is that it is a "lagging indicator". Not to say that you would be wrong to follow it, but you might lose more of the potential gains. Looking at the chart pattern, the more telling indicator is that the chart has "double bottomed", which is a powerful reversal indicator that the move will be to the topside. Wait for the break above around ).9060, and then go long this pair.

[allanos]

At the end of the year( and even much further) you maybe right. But for the coming days, or even weeks, it doesn't look promising to your position.

I would be worry if the daily MACD would cross to the upside.

If the Daily MACD will make a cross to the upside, I would look to 0.9309 as the first resistance.

Edit: I couldn't paste the pictures here so I attached them

The problem with MACD is that it is a "lagging indicator". Not to say that you would be wrong to follow it, but you might lose more of the potential gains. Looking at the chart pattern, the more telling indicator is that the chart has "double bottomed", which is a powerful reversal indicator that the move will be to the topside. Wait for the break above around ).9060, and then go long this pair.

[allanos]

At the end of the year( and even much further) you maybe right. But for the coming days, or even weeks, it doesn't look promising to your position.

I would be worry if the daily MACD would cross to the upside.

If the Daily MACD will make a cross to the upside, I would look to 0.9309 as the first resistance.

Edit: I couldn't paste the pictures here so I attached them

The problem with MACD is that it is a "lagging indicator". Not to say that you would be wrong to follow it, but you might lose more of the potential gains. Looking at the chart pattern, the more telling indicator is that the chart has "double bottomed", which is a powerful reversal indicator that the move will be to the upside. Wait for the break above around ).9060, and then go long this pair.

[Ludacris]

What a rollercoaster - overnight I had an unrealized loss of 141K (which mean our OP had an unrealized loss of 171K), but now I'm up 25K. I know I wouldn't have the stomach for this in real life.

It should be noted that with futures the leverage is so great that going long also involves nearly unlimited risk.

A much better bet was to short the ES last night, but of course hindsight is 20/20.

[SheungWan]

a relatively safe bet is EUR-CHF

it dipped below 1.22

I don't know if it will fall further nor do I know for how long it will remain below 1.22, but I am fairly sure that it will climb again above 1.24 within the year, probably within a 2-3 months.

'A relatively safe bet'

'I don't know if it will fall further'

'Nor do I know for how long'

'I am fairly sure'

'Within the year....probably within a 2-3 months'

Incisive analysis of the year award candidate.

[cnx37]

The real players (not the followers) are Sooooooooooooo Quuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuiet!

Why? Maybe they are taking a well-earned break to an enchanted island or whatever (20 hookers in a penthouse apartment) - they can afford it & deserve the break.

Why & where are they hiding?

If I was making a bundle so easily, I would be sharing some.

Some of the players might PM me so we can enjoy their easily-gotten gains.

[SheungWan]

The real players (not the followers) are Sooooooooooooo Quuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuiet!

Why? Maybe they are taking a well-earned break to an enchanted island or whatever (20 hookers in a penthouse apartment) - they can afford it & deserve the break.

Why & where are they hiding?

If I was making a bundle so easily, I would be sharing some.

Some of the players might PM me so we can enjoy their easily-gotten gains.

Some people do make money, whether in futures, stocks, FX, property or running a business.

They don't necessarily go on a blowout but are able to retire to Thailand for instance.

[cnx37]

The real players (not the followers) are Sooooooooooooo Quuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuiet!

Why? Maybe they are taking a well-earned break to an enchanted island or whatever (20 hookers in a penthouse apartment) - they can afford it & deserve the break.

Why & where are they hiding?

If I was making a bundle so easily, I would be sharing some.

Some of the players might PM me so we can enjoy their easily-gotten gains.

Some people do make money, whether in futures, stocks, FX, property or running a business.

They don't necessarily go on a blowout but are able to retire to Thailand for instance.

SheungWan

I agree with you to an extent eg early retirement in LOS - but you can do both.

Sharing is part of the deal in my experience - as I have - it can be rewarding in other ways. Business & property have been very kind to me. FX & stock market have been nightmares - cunning, baffling & powerful. I have purchased expensive share/stock analysis programs - optimizing MA etc - I lost a bundle.

Accumulation of financial assets is not the ONLY path. I respect those who follow an alternative paths too eg the monastic route - I admire their style too. Whatever one excels in eg art, music, business, education etc - we are all making a contribution to society via our chosen field.

I am just interested in the players' progress - curiousity! I do not expect any sharing from them. It is just something that I did not conquer.

I say "Congratulations" to those chosen few who have the ability & emotions to prosper from FX activities - I admire their talents.

Edited February 4, 2014 by cnx37

[Naam]

'...While I agree rich is better than poor, I can promise you being a millionaire isn't all it's cracked up to be. In fact a million, or even a few millions, whether sterling or dollars isn't that much in 2014. However, good luck with your trading. In the Forex business, it seems luck is more important than skill.' - theMagician

right you are! a few millions of Sterling or Dollars isn't that much when you own them only in your wet dreams. but when you wake up and you worry about the 150 Baht ATM fee when you withdraw your next £100 or $150 to pay for noodle soup and Chang for the next 7 days then...

[manarak]

a relatively safe bet is EUR-CHF

it dipped below 1.22

I don't know if it will fall further nor do I know for how long it will remain below 1.22, but I am fairly sure that it will climb again above 1.24 within the year, probably within a 2-3 months.

'A relatively safe bet'

'I don't know if it will fall further'

'Nor do I know for how long'

'I am fairly sure'

'Within the year....probably within a 2-3 months'

Incisive analysis of the year award candidate.

Not an analysis, just my opinion.

Analyses are done by staff working for sales advocating either side, but are seldom more useful than an opinion.

Otherwise the guys doing the analyses wouldn't be getting up at 6:00 every day to go work in a threadmill...

[Tmymaimee]

Today at 10:24 Mar 13 selling at .9002 Total paper loss today of 1.1 million baht So the point is I could have closed yesterday for a 1.2 million gain. That is how I used to do it….small gains. Then I missed the big slide from .93 to .895 because I was always in and out.

Yes, at one point last night I was down 5 million. I have been down 10 million before but recovered in another week.

My point is that I can live my life now with 6% return, enjoy my time here and be comfortable. Or I can lay it all down and see what happens. At 42 years old and solid work experience to fall back on, I prefer to risk it. I can accept a rise of 2 - 3 cents and sleep well at night.

The CAD dollar popped yesterday because US factory production dropped and $CDN resource prices increased. That's no different than employment numbers, rates, etc.

I believe (along with many experts) that the $CDN will be dropping this year. If the bias switches or numbers pick up, then I would reverse my short.

I would rather have 1 chance at making it big than living a normal life day to day.

[belg]

do they have internet in the crazy luney bin house ?

[IDL]

Blimey! Wish I had the mindset to be doing what these guys do...I get all upset when a bank won't exchange foreign currency coz there's a tiny tear.

[advancebooking]

I can assure you I'm a legit retail trader with IB. I also read a lot about them on the net and it's probably because they're the #1 broker for active traders hands-down. Without giving them too much free advertising, you can trade worldwide markets, futures, and forex from a single account with the cheapest commissions and margin rates found anywhere. For example, US shares are $0.005/shares (yes, half a cent a share) and you can borrow a million dollars of margin for only 1.12% a year. If your a real high roller and want to borrow hundreds of millions the rate drops to about 0.5%! Try and beat that anywhere else!

Also, their platform accepts API's (or 3rd party software connections), so if you write trading code in C# like I do you can connect directly from programs like NinjaTrader or Excel.

And their online account management and margin calculations are the best I've ever seen. Sure there's other brokers for active traders, but many of them won't even look at non-residents and a couple I did find had horrible account opening procedures. Another broker I was with didn't have real-time margin monitoring and told me I had to do my own calculations! With IB my account was open the same day and margin calculations are updated real-time.

With this trade from the OP I'm down about 71K at the moment and the CAD seems to be oscillating back and forth about the .9026 pivot. I have no idea what it's going to do long term and I would never trade this size in real life. If this was for real I would have only traded 5-10 contracts and would have put a stop at the 1-week resistance of 0.9016 and I would have gotten stopped out already for a loss of about 1-1.5K. Also, I rarely enter trades that are this far extended from the 50 day moving avg. Even though the general trend is down, it could climb up and test the 50-day, which would be about a $1 million loss for 300 contracts.

It's possible the OP got over-confident from the last trade he exited early that went his way. The pattern is perfectly described in the trading books. What asiamint wrote on the previous page is golden. I've said it before, but with any spectulative trade you have to only think about the risk you are taking or the worst case senario, not place the trade thinking about how much you're going to make. Even the market wizards all talk about how important it is to control risk. This is described perfectly on p.15-20 of 'Mastering the Trade' by John Carter (in fact the first 2 chapters of that book should be required reading for any trader - especially the part called 'Why do most traders have to blow out an account before it all sinks in?)

To the OP, you spent your life building a successful business and then selling it at its peak- don't lose it all in a few months of trading. I think you should take a few months off and study fulltime. I'm not trying to be a prick, just trying to give you some honest advice. Let me just say I'm glad I didn't have access to my locked-in money during my first few years of trading.

I just checked and p.17-20 of 'Mastering the Trade' are available as free preview on Amazon. That book, along with "The Disciplined Trader, and 'A Random Walk Down Wallstreet', will definitely prolong your trading life.

I told you that this whole thread is sponsored by the IB..... I liked the way he said above ''I can assure you I'm a legit retail trader with IB. I also read a lot about them on the net and it's probably because they're the #1 broker for active traders hands-down. Without giving them too much free advertising, you can trade worldwide markets, futures, and forex from a single account with the cheapest commissions and margin rates found anywhere. ''

The way he sais 'they're the # 1 broker....

THIS THREAD IS A TROLL THREAD AND A SALES PITCH

[Trickcyclist]

That's my boy!

Get stuck-in and the best of luck and bugger the begrudgers!

[paddyjenkins]

Today at 10:24 Mar 13 selling at .9002 Total paper loss today of 1.1 million baht So the point is I could have closed yesterday for a 1.2 million gain. That is how I used to do it….small gains. Then I missed the big slide from .93 to .895 because I was always in and out.

Yes, at one point last night I was down 5 million. I have been down 10 million before but recovered in another week.

My point is that I can live my life now with 6% return, enjoy my time here and be comfortable. Or I can lay it all down and see what happens. At 42 years old and solid work experience to fall back on, I prefer to risk it. I can accept a rise of 2 - 3 cents and sleep well at night.

The CAD dollar popped yesterday because US factory production dropped and $CDN resource prices increased. That's no different than employment numbers, rates, etc.

I believe (along with many experts) that the $CDN will be dropping this year. If the bias switches or numbers pick up, then I would reverse my short.

I would rather have 1 chance at making it big than living a normal life day to day.

And what is your plan if it all goes wrong?

Back to work in a job you don't like or suicide? Either option far less attractive than having enough to live comfortably forever.

And if you did 'make it'...what would you do...buy one of those status symbol cars and look like a plonker with a status symbol car....make new friends who only like you for your money...seems the upside versus merely comfortably is of limited value apart from for extremely vacuous personalities.

So what I am saying is the risk versus reward of your risk it all strategy is very poor.

[Naam]

Today at 10:24 Mar 13 selling at .9002 Total paper loss today of 1.1 million baht So the point is I could have closed yesterday for a 1.2 million gain. That is how I used to do it….small gains. Then I missed the big slide from .93 to .895 because I was always in and out.

Yes, at one point last night I was down 5 million. I have been down 10 million before but recovered in another week.

My point is that I can live my life now with 6% return, enjoy my time here and be comfortable. Or I can lay it all down and see what happens. At 42 years old and solid work experience to fall back on, I prefer to risk it. I can accept a rise of 2 - 3 cents and sleep well at night.

The CAD dollar popped yesterday because US factory production dropped and $CDN resource prices increased. That's no different than employment numbers, rates, etc.

I believe (along with many experts) that the $CDN will be dropping this year. If the bias switches or numbers pick up, then I would reverse my short.

I would rather have 1 chance at making it big than living a normal life day to day.

My point is that I can live my life now with 6% return, enjoy my time here and be comfortable.

if these 6% equal 200,000 Dollar p.a., you spend 100k and reinvest 100k then you should be ok. especially if you are not a slave of the IRS and enjoy a (still) income tax free environment.

but quite obviously the afore-mentioned 6% are only sufficient to finance a "normal life day to day".

so why not take it a bit easier and instead of turning the big leverage wheel do your forex "excursions" with a zero (or two zeroes) less?

[cnx37]

Whereustay

This is better than the TV soaps! Up millions - down millions - all within 24 hours! See post #80. If this is reality & not hypotheticals, I admire your tenacity. Keep @ it, brother.

I brought in a fair amount of $$$ a couple of years ago - close to USD400k @ a little more than 28:1. The USD rose to nearly 33:1. Now it is on the slide again - 32.65. Holding on to USD would have meant a difference of B1.95m (ouch)!

Edited February 4, 2014 by cnx37

[Ludacris]

Naam's got some good advice. If you have to trade large or not trade at all, it's more of an addiction than anything else and that's going to blow-up your account sooner or later.

Why don't you take up a few hobbies that don't affect your net-worth like trading does and then live comfortably?

I would give almost anything to be financially independant at your age and have the time to do only the things I want to.

An hour ago I was still up 25K so I put in a stop loss at break-even. As I was typing this my stop triggered and I'm out with a 2K loss. Much better than losing 150K! I don't care how much money I have, I will never trade that size again!

[Naam]

Whereustay

This is better than the TV soaps! Up millions - down millions - all within 24 hours! See post #80. If this is reality & not hypotheticals, I admire your tenacity. Keep @ it, brother.

I brought in a fair amount of $$$ a couple of years ago - close to USD400k @ a little more than 28:1. The USD rose to nearly 33:1. Now it is on the slide again - 32.65. Holding on to USD would have meant a difference of B1.95m (ouch)!

even more interesting would be the ups and downs expressed in Vietnamese Dong, e.g.

i was down 6,731,934,000 but i could have closed the trade being up 673,194,614

[Cambodger]

Whereustay

This is better than the TV soaps! Up millions - down millions - all within 24 hours! See post #80. If this is reality & not hypotheticals, I admire your tenacity. Keep @ it, brother.

I brought in a fair amount of $$$ a couple of years ago - close to USD400k @ a little more than 28:1. The USD rose to nearly 33:1. Now it is on the slide again - 32.65. Holding on to USD would have meant a difference of B1.95m (ouch)!

even more interesting would be the ups and downs expressed in Vietnamese Dong, e.g.

i was down 6,731,934,000 but i could have closed the trade being up 673,194,614

So you're long on the Dong then? lol

[Naam]

Whereustay

This is better than the TV soaps! Up millions - down millions - all within 24 hours! See post #80. If this is reality & not hypotheticals, I admire your tenacity. Keep @ it, brother.

I brought in a fair amount of $$$ a couple of years ago - close to USD400k @ a little more than 28:1. The USD rose to nearly 33:1. Now it is on the slide again - 32.65. Holding on to USD would have meant a difference of B1.95m (ouch)!

even more interesting would be the ups and downs expressed in Vietnamese Dong, e.g.

i was down 6,731,934,000 but i could have closed the trade being up 673,194,614

So you're long on the Dong then? lol

men of my age group wish they were