No end in sight to chaos in Thailand as situation continues to deteriorate
Editorial Desk
The Yomiuri Shimbun

(Yomiuri Shimbun) The political situation has been deteriorating in Thailand, and it is not easy to find even a clue as to how to end the current crisis.

Amid antigovernment protests, a general election was held on Sunday. There were no large-scale clashes between protesters and government supporters, as had been feared, but due to disruptions by protesters, the voting was cancelled in about 20 per cent of the electoral districts.

As things stand now, there will not be enough elected parliamentarians to convene parliament. And in those electoral districts where the voting was canceled, there is no clear prospect for holding another vote.

Still calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, protesters continue occupying major intersections in Bangkok. It is imperative to be on the lookout for worsening discord.

In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number.

The major opposition Democratic Party, which supports Thaksin’s opponents, has boycotted the vote, in step with the voting disruption by protesters.

As voting was cancelled in a number of electoral districts, the party has shown its readiness to appeal to the Constitutional Court to invalidate the vote on the grounds it counters the constitutional stipulation requiring elections to be held on one day.

Legal overthrow?

Thaksin’s opponents may be aiming to lawfully overthrow the government outside the election.

Under the Constitution, enacted in 2007, the Constitutional Court and the National Anticorruption Commission have strong authority over parliament and public administrative organisations.

Thaksin’s opponents have a majority in all such organisations. Some years ago, the Constitutional Court caused the pro-Thaksin administration to collapse by ruling that electoral fraud rendered an election unconstitutional.

The dynamics of the political conflict are expected to remain for the time being, with Thaksin supporters calling for the principle of majority rule in running the country, while Thaksin’s opponents who attach importance to the “rule of law” by such entities as the Constitutional Court.

It is also worrisome that adverse effects on the economy have become apparent. The tourism industry, the country’s major industry, has been hit hard by the political unrest, with Thailand’s central bank revising downward this year’s projected national growth rate from 4.8 per cent to 3 per cent.

Under the current caretaker government of Prime Minister Yingluck, the government cannot compile a fiscal budget or approve any large-scale investment.

As Japanese-affiliate companies are expected to shy away from investing in the country, Thai authorities will continue to face a severe ordeal.


-- ANN 2014-02-05

This might just be the next government election poster.

Edited February 5, 201412 yr by siampolee

Here's a song to go with the poster:

Tom Waits - Step Right Up

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdqh0GsXMII&feature=kp

so why baht gained 2b within the last 10 days in exchange for gbp and still rising?

please do support ultras to shut down bkk airport

Sam, are you suggesting that the upcountry Thai, absent near term payment for the rice, are going to switch sides? I'm probably not the brightest crayon in the box, but if you are saying that I sure don't follow your logic. Could you elucidate?

Some years ago, the Constitutional Court caused the pro-Thaksin administration to collapse by ruling that electoral fraud rendered an election unconstitutional.

The 2007 election was unconstitutional?? That's news to me.

As long as there is face, there will be political and social divide problems in Thailand...

When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

so why baht gained 2b within the last 10 days in exchange for gbp and still rising?

please do support ultras to shut down bkk airport

The pound actually only dropped by just over one baht and has performed similarly against most currencies.

The baht has been steady against the USD.

The baht dropped in anticipation of what may happen some time ago so that's why the currency markets are no reacting at the moment.

Japanese trying to talk down the markets and valuations to pick up some cheap assets for themselves.

Over at the Bangkok Post is an excellent analytical article akin to this one with the title of something like: political crisis splits families. Well worth the read.

[Note: This post in accord with TV rules which prohibit linking directly to Bangkok Post articles, or quoting lengthy sections from said news source.]

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so why baht gained 2b within the last 10 days in exchange for gbp and still rising?

please do support ultras to shut down bkk airport

The pound actually only dropped by just over one baht and has performed similarly against most currencies.

The baht has been steady against the USD.

The baht dropped in anticipation of what may happen some time ago so that's why the currency markets are no reacting at the moment.

In the context of very significant turmoil in markets, the SET and Baht have held up very well. The market is anticipating a viable government to come out of this...and it won't involve Mr Suthep or his acolytes

When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

So deep into the trees he can't see the forest.

Sent from my tin can via string

so why baht gained 2b within the last 10 days in exchange for gbp and still rising?

please do support ultras to shut down bkk airport

The pound actually only dropped by just over one baht and has performed similarly against most currencies.

The baht has been steady against the USD.

The baht dropped in anticipation of what may happen some time ago so that's why the currency markets are no reacting at the moment.

In the context of very significant turmoil in markets, the SET and Baht have held up very well. The market is anticipating a viable government to come out of this...and it won't involve Mr Suthep or his acolytes

Nor will it involve the current lot.

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Sam, are you suggesting that the upcountry Thai, absent near term payment for the rice, are going to switch sides? I'm probably not the brightest crayon in the box, but if you are saying that I sure don't follow your logic. Could you elucidate?

You assume that it hasn't already happened. In the red heartland (CM, Udon Ubon) only 55% of eligible voters bothered to turn up, and many of those voted NO. So many, that PTP's estimate is that they received only 10 million votes. The electorates that didn't vote aren't likely to increase that by much, and things are unlikely to improve.

When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Please define elite for me. I doubt you can.

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It is also worrisome that adverse effects on the economy have become apparent. The tourism industry, the country’s major industry, has been hit hard by the political unrest, with Thailand’s central bank revising downward this year’s projected national growth rate from 4.8 per cent to 3 per cent.

The tourism industry is NOT Thailand's "major" industry.

so why baht gained 2b within the last 10 days in exchange for gbp and still rising?

please do support ultras to shut down bkk airport

Baht is pegged to the US dollar and swings up and down with the US dollar.

It is also worrisome that adverse effects on the economy have become apparent. The tourism industry, the countrys major industry, has been hit hard by the political unrest, with Thailands central bank revising downward this years projected national growth rate from 4.8 per cent to 3 per cent.

I guess that depends onhow you measure it but it is certainly A major industry here.

The tourism industry is NOT Thailand's "major" industry.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class,

Is everything south of Bangkok considered "urban"?

When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Please define elite for me. I doubt you can.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

That's easy.

Anyone who opposes Thaksin's rape and pillage of Thailand

so why baht gained 2b within the last 10 days in exchange for gbp and still rising?

please do support ultras to shut down bkk airport

Baht is pegged to the US dollar and swings up and down with the US dollar.

There has been no pegging since 1997/98

so why baht gained 2b within the last 10 days in exchange for gbp and still rising?

please do support ultras to shut down bkk airport

Baht is pegged to the US dollar and swings up and down with the US dollar.

Pegged to the US$?? Why has the Baht gone from 31 to 33 baht to the dollar in the last 6 months?

When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Please define elite for me. I doubt you can.

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Have a look at the latest issue of Thailand Tatler. It has a list with pics of the 500 'elite', it's a genuinely good laugh....almost laugh out loud stuff. Written in the style of Country Life c1960

Edited February 5, 201412 yr by Prbkk

I might agree with this article if there were millions of Thais protesting out on the streets of Bangkok, if more rally sites were popping up all over the capital, if there was a general strike. I'd believe it if less than 50% of the polling stations were open, if the stock markets and Baht were tumbling.

But none of these things are happening. On the contrary the rally sites are shutting down. Only the diehards and the paid are protesting. Slowly Thailand is returning to normal, not descending into chaos. It is not over and could return to violence at any moment should some blockhead decide he wants some revenge. But the signs are encouraging.

Suthep must be hoping for a judicial coup now as that is the only way he will win.

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Edited February 5, 201412 yr by NCFC

Sam, are you suggesting that the upcountry Thai, absent near term payment for the rice, are going to switch sides? I'm probably not the brightest crayon in the box, but if you are saying that I sure don't follow your logic. Could you elucidate?

You assume that it hasn't already happened. In the red heartland (CM, Udon Ubon) only 55% of eligible voters bothered to turn up, and many of those voted NO. So many, that PTP's estimate is that they received only 10 million votes. The electorates that didn't vote aren't likely to increase that by much, and things are unlikely to improve.

So the Why don't the Democrats participate in the election? If what you say is true then vote buying isn't as prevalent as people like to believe and there would've been a good chance for the Democrats to win if they instead spent the millions of baht every day to run the protests to actual campaigning on issues.

When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Please define elite for me. I doubt you can.

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The article actually says:

["In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number."]

Surely, this bit of writing is true ?? Okay then, Thaksin's opponents also include a SMALL number of people who are not 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class'.

When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Please define elite for me. I doubt you can.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

The article actually says:

["In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number."]

Surely, this bit of writing is true ?? Okay then, Thaksin's opponents also include a SMALL number of people who are not 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class'.

How many people live south of Bangkok? Are they all wealthy and urban-based middle-class?

The Yingluck administration is being squeezed out from many different angles at once. The election failed to deliver them a quorum, and there is no credible path to achieving one. They are frozen on delegating funds, establishing contracts with other countries, attracting investment, announcing any policies, nor the ability to continue existing ones. Even the power of the emergency decree will likely be challenged in court. The actions we see the Yingluck administration now take on a daily basis is all they can do. All they can do is talk. They can express outrage and " try " give orders to the EC, they can " try " to establish a PR narrative of blame, they can " try " to arrange auctions to salvage the rice scheme, and they can " try " to continue to administer an avalanche of threats on those that oppose the administration. They are also reduced to the ultimate humiliation of trying to seek whatever power can be granted them through the very oversight institutions that they have held such open disregard for in the past. But much more than that, they can't open government offices, they can't stifle the protest on the streets, and the inexorable march of the courts continues. They have been backed into a corner. The Prime Minister has long ceased to occupy her office at Government House. She is being jostled secretly from location to location, ascending and descending stairwells. She arranges interviews with international media outlets, where she is confronted by another kind of discomfort - caught between the probing, disconcerting reality of the questions posed to her - and her efforts to show a skeptical press that she is capable of handling any of it.

When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Please define elite for me. I doubt you can.

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That's easy.

Anyone who opposes Thaksin's rape and pillage of Thailand

Love it!

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