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No end in sight to chaos in Thailand as situation continues to deteriorate


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When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Please define elite for me. I doubt you can.

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Have a look at the latest issue of Thailand Tatler. It has a list with pics of the 500 'elite', it's a genuinely good laugh....almost laugh out loud stuff. Written in the style of Country Life c1960

I will. Will I see you? No, not me.

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The article actually says:

["In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number."]

Surely, this bit of writing is true ?? Okay then, Thaksin's opponents also include a SMALL number of people who are not 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class'.

No it is not true. PTP may have SOME support from farmers but certainly not all. And you might think that "overwhelming support" would lead to both higher voter turn-out and far more votes.

Are the 55% of Thais who didn't bother to vote all 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class" and a SMALL number of others?

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When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Please define elite for me. I doubt you can.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

The article actually says:

["In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number."]

Surely, this bit of writing is true ?? Okay then, Thaksin's opponents also include a SMALL number of people who are not 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class'.

The point is that Thaksin, Yingluck and many of the elected PTP MP's are from the same socio economic scale as some TV posters say they gag on when they think of elites. Thaksin, in my eyes, was brilliant to figure out how to use taxpayers money to buy votes from the poor and get his elites elected. YL tried the same, but the rice scheme was doomed. I remember reading Dr. Virabongsa arguing against it, but she did it and the World Bank's loss estimations have been staggering, and still it continues.

I don't support Suthep. As an American I support Democracy, and I think it best left to the checks and balances that the courts represent.

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When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Please define elite for me. I doubt you can.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

The article actually says:

["In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number."]

Surely, this bit of writing is true ?? Okay then, Thaksin's opponents also include a SMALL number of people who are not 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class'.

The point is that Thaksin, Yingluck and many of the elected PTP MP's are from the same socio economic scale as some TV posters say they gag on when they think of elites. Thaksin, in my eyes, was brilliant to figure out how to use taxpayers money to buy votes from the poor and get his elites elected. YL tried the same, but the rice scheme was doomed. I remember reading Dr. Virabongsa arguing against it, but she did it and the World Bank's loss estimations have been staggering, and still it continues.

I don't support Suthep. As an American I support Democracy, and I think it best left to the checks and balances that the courts represent.

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There is a good summation in an op ed piece in today's BP. I don't believe the rice pledging has a single supported left...but getting rid of the mountain and having the farmers paid is central to moving forward ( for the country rtaher than PTP)..so I agree with IKKE....sell it at a loss, move on, if the opposition can come up with some decent policies ( remember their rice policy was just as awful from an economic perspective), they are back in the game

Edited by Prbkk
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so why baht gained 2b within the last 10 days in exchange for gbp and still rising?

please do support ultras to shut down bkk airport

Baht is pegged to the US dollar and swings up and down with the US dollar.

No, it's not.

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Sam, are you suggesting that the upcountry Thai, absent near term payment for the rice, are going to switch sides? I'm probably not the brightest crayon in the box, but if you are saying that I sure don't follow your logic. Could you elucidate?

Yes I do.

They are propably not going to like or vote DEMs, but they are for sure abandoning a party, which had promised to take care of them and which left them now in such a sh*t. I'm glad I never had to go hungry, but it is the most awful thing I can imagine. And that is waiting for the farmers, now that teh rice is gone and no money came back. Loan sharks have a hey day, at 20% per month etc.

For the farmers it was a nice ride, as long as it lasted, but if you don't take care of them, they are no more there, when you need them. That is not only upcountry, that is the same in any Thai company...

As for alternatives, there are many, over 50 stood for the "election" last weekend. Some of them might not be worthwhile, but others might come up on a regional level, others were minor parties in the several last governments. See Bahharn, see the godfather of Buriram, Nevin.

I hoppe this answers your question (I will be offline for a few days now).

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Investors will vote with their feet as the Toyota Chairman said. Our company has put an investment on hold. The real impact of the Suthep action you will only see in the midterm as investment decision from now will show the impact later. Thailand was always the place of investment despite some less favorable conditions (majority shareholding by Thai, restrictions on experts etc.) . It was the stable political situation which have given confidence.

The Thai politics were always in favor of the industry and therefore of the money. Subsidies were given in large amount to the industry, BOI privileges with tax heavens, the government paid for the infrastructure etc. There were a lot of Goodies given, now when the different government is doing the same to the farmers by subsidizing the rice it is called a betrayal of the Thai people and worse word than that. Most of the countries are subsidizing the agricultural industry the US does the EU does and most probably many Asian states do the same. It is not the present government who is responsible for the actual disaster it is a bunch of people who see that the money is flowing in a different direction. How can a normal person support a group of people who have no program, want to install an appointed group of "integer " people to rule a country. How can a group of people take away the basic right of people to express their will by voting? And here in TV all this experts in Thai Politics are supporting this BS.

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This might just be the goingout.jpgnext government election poster.

That may well be, but ask yourself, what do they have to sell?

1. 15 to 20 million tons of maturing high quality rice.

2. S.R.T. A quaint, delightful narrow gauge railway, run with 19th century speeds and rules.

3. Thai Airways. An international airline with high quality service appealing to the discerning traveler.

That's for starters.

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How ironic <quote> "Thaksin’s opponents who attach importance to the “rule of law” ... as they sponsor a person with murder charges hanging over his head and refuses to turn him self over to the police to face new charges of insurrection etc.. Not to mention his past crimes!

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When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Please define elite for me. I doubt you can.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

The article actually says:

["In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number."]

Surely, this bit of writing is true ?? Okay then, Thaksin's opponents also include a SMALL number of people who are not 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class'.

The point is that Thaksin, Yingluck and many of the elected PTP MP's are from the same socio economic scale as some TV posters say they gag on when they think of elites. Thaksin, in my eyes, was brilliant to figure out how to use taxpayers money to buy votes from the poor and get his elites elected. YL tried the same, but the rice scheme was doomed. I remember reading Dr. Virabongsa arguing against it, but she did it and the World Bank's loss estimations have been staggering, and still it continues.

I don't support Suthep. As an American I support Democracy, and I think it best left to the checks and balances that the courts represent.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

There is a good summation in an op ed piece in today's BP. I don't believe the rice pledging has a single supported left...but getting rid of the mountain and having the farmers paid is central to moving forward ( for the country rtaher than PTP)..so I agree with IKKE....sell it at a loss, move on, if the opposition can come up with some decent policies ( remember their rice policy was just as awful from an economic perspective), they are back in the game

YL still supports the rice scheme since she has continued it. Now, it is her responsibility.

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After a brief but recent trip to the big city, I got the distinct feeling that the rot has started to take effect. The vibrancy of the Anant era administration was completely gone, and I fear we are heading down "Manila Road", the only difference being that the present ruling family makes Marcos look like a rank amateur. Once the star of S.E.Asia, the plundering of the Philippines was not an overnight affair, and neither will be the decline of this once-a-paradise sad.png

Edited by phantomfiddler
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I might agree with this article if there were millions of Thais protesting out on the streets of Bangkok, if more rally sites were popping up all over the capital, if there was a general strike. I'd believe it if less than 50% of the polling stations were open, if the stock markets and Baht were tumbling.

But none of these things are happening. On the contrary the rally sites are shutting down. Only the diehards and the paid are protesting. Slowly Thailand is returning to normal, not descending into chaos. It is not over and could return to violence at any moment should some blockhead decide he wants some revenge. But the signs are encouraging.

Suthep must be hoping for a judicial coup now as that is the only way he will win.

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Try to keep in mind that the protests are going on for almost 3 months, people are tired of listening to Suthep and taking to the streets but that does not mean that they are back accepting PTP, they played their role and are awaiting results now. That is what i understood from talking to my Thai friends. Judical resolution of the conflict would be a continuation of what started at the streets in my opinion. At least the last election showed that PTP does not enjoy the approval of the majority.

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It is possible that the overthrow movement will intensify its efforts next week to coincide with "Nature's Wrath" the long-predicted agrarian backlash. This is a dangerous gamble by the anti-govt crowd, but they may see this as their opportunity to tip the balance. I don't think they have the political conkers to do it, personally, even assuming the leaders aren't all under arrest which is what we are told they will be. But I do think they might step up the action to coincide with the outraged-farmers situation. It doesn't make much sense but then I haven't heard much sense from the overthrow people so far anyway. The farmers have a legit reason to be protesting, and they should not hold up until they are paid. They are victims of merciless state brigandage, nothing less. The overthrow movement's legitness is way more sketchy imho, they have some highly questionable interests and methods too. In any case it will the poor luckless working citizens who suffer, until this situation is resolved.

coffee1.gif

Edited by Yunla
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The Yingluck administration is being squeezed out from many different angles at once. The election failed to deliver them a quorum, and there is no credible path to achieving one. They are frozen on delegating funds, establishing contracts with other countries, attracting investment, announcing any policies, nor the ability to continue existing ones. Even the power of the emergency decree will likely be challenged in court. The actions we see the Yingluck administration now take on a daily basis is all they can do. All they can do is talk. They can express outrage and " try " give orders to the EC, they can " try " to establish a PR narrative of blame, they can " try " to arrange auctions to salvage the rice scheme, and they can " try " to continue to administer an avalanche of threats on those that oppose the administration. They are also reduced to the ultimate humiliation of trying to seek whatever power can be granted them through the very oversight institutions that they have held such open disregard for in the past. But much more than that, they can't open government offices, they can't stifle the protest on the streets, and the inexorable march of the courts continues. They have been backed into a corner. The Prime Minister has long ceased to occupy her office at Government House. She is being jostled secretly from location to location, ascending and descending stairwells. She arranges interviews with international media outlets, where she is confronted by another kind of discomfort - caught between the probing, disconcerting reality of the questions posed to her - and her efforts to show a skeptical press that she is capable of handling any of it.

I've been saying it for weeks: She's toast.

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'Under the Constitution, enacted in 2007, the Constitutional Court and the National Anticorruption Commission have strong authority over parliament and public administrative organisations ... Thaksin’s opponents have a majority in all such organisations.'

Really? Is that based simply on decisions that have not gone the government's way?

Edited by metisdead
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I beg to differ, because I think this will be decided in the near future.

At the moment we have one or two court weeks, with differernt issues, that will have a direct impact on whether the elections will stand. What happens, if YL is to be impeached? New elections. If the 300+ MPs and senators, who voted for the amnesty bill will become barred from politics? I think there are several issues waiting for the courts.

And another point, the Yomiuri Shimbun forgot to mention is the rapidly eroding support base of PTP, if they can't pay the farmers real soon now. I read somewhere, the whole rice pledging scheme is so screwed up, that they can't even just provide figures on what has been pledged, what has been sold (at what price) and what is still in stock and how old is that? I expect that, even if they would manage to sell all, they might not even get half the money spent on buying the rice in the first place. I mean, who wants 2 year old rice? Animal feed is the max you could use it for.

If we have another week or so of farmers protests in several parts of the country the government will have to give up, even if Toxin is pushing to keep going. That is why they sent in the bully-boys to intimidate the farmers like in Pitsanuloke. Still that can not stop the farmers. And that's what will - together with the courts, propably - decide the fate of this last Toxin (clone-) government.

The Chinese have just cancelled an order for over 1 million tons of rice with Thailand so that will help!

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so why baht gained 2b within the last 10 days in exchange for gbp and still rising?

please do support ultras to shut down bkk airport

Baht is pegged to the US dollar and swings up and down with the US dollar.

THB is NOT pegged to the USD. It floats according to market supply and demand although the BoT can (and does) intervene to smooth out movements at times.

For Thailand, it is the cross rates agianst its neighbours/competitors such as Malaysia that are more important than the USD rate.

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How ironic <quote> "Thaksin’s opponents who attach importance to the “rule of law” ... as they sponsor a person with murder charges hanging over his head and refuses to turn him self over to the police to face new charges of insurrection etc.. Not to mention his past crimes!

yes how ironic indeed hes in bangkok,chalem said he was going get him in 72 hours last week,200.000 police unable to catch him,atleast he hasnt run away like your great leader to dubai...w00t.gif see ya....cant you do better than that mr troll......

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The article actually says:

["In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number."]

Surely, this bit of writing is true ?? Okay then, Thaksin's opponents also include a SMALL number of people who are not 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class'.

No it is not true. PTP may have SOME support from farmers but certainly not all. And you might think that "overwhelming support" would lead to both higher voter turn-out and far more votes.

Are the 55% of Thais who didn't bother to vote all 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class" and a SMALL number of others?

"Are the 55% of Thais who didn't bother to vote all 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class" and a SMALL number of others?"

A fair proportion will be the poor souls who were beaten and even shot while trying to exercise their democratic right, or like my g/f, too scared to even try.

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The article actually says:

["In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number."]

Surely, this bit of writing is true ?? Okay then, Thaksin's opponents also include a SMALL number of people who are not 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class'.

No it is not true. PTP may have SOME support from farmers but certainly not all. And you might think that "overwhelming support" would lead to both higher voter turn-out and far more votes.

Are the 55% of Thais who didn't bother to vote all 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class" and a SMALL number of others?

"Are the 55% of Thais who didn't bother to vote all 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class" and a SMALL number of others?"

A fair proportion will be the poor souls who were beaten and even shot while trying to exercise their democratic right, or like my g/f, too scared to even try.

Who was afraid in Isaan, in Chiang Mai, Udon, Ubon, Surin or anywhere else north of BKK? Why did they abandon their right to vote, or vote NO?

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The article actually says:

["In the latest election, the Yingluck administration took its case to the voters by dissolving parliament, a move that took place amid overwhelming support from farmers and poor people—a group of supporters Yingluck inherited from Thaksin Shinawatra, her brother and former premier, who now is in self-imposed exile.

Meanwhile, Thaksin’s opponents, comprising the wealthy and urban-based middle-class, have called for an unelected council to govern as an interim government, as they are overwhelmed by Thaksin’s supporters in terms of number."]

Surely, this bit of writing is true ?? Okay then, Thaksin's opponents also include a SMALL number of people who are not 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class'.

No it is not true. PTP may have SOME support from farmers but certainly not all. And you might think that "overwhelming support" would lead to both higher voter turn-out and far more votes.

Are the 55% of Thais who didn't bother to vote all 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class" and a SMALL number of others?

"Are the 55% of Thais who didn't bother to vote all 'the wealthy and urban-based middle-class" and a SMALL number of others?"

A fair proportion will be the poor souls who were beaten and even shot while trying to exercise their democratic right, or like my g/f, too scared to even try.

Who was afraid in Isaan, in Chiang Mai, Udon, Ubon, Surin or anywhere else north of BKK? Why did they abandon their right to vote, or vote NO?

Rich, poor, anyone in between get scared when there is militant violence occurring in connection with an event that affects all citizens 18 yo and older.

Such violence can happen anywhere, any time.

Scared g/fs and elderly and middle aged people - anyone regardless of geography - get anxious and fearful of any violence in their society, connected to an event that affects anyone who wants to participate in the event and is eligible to participate. This is especially so in an election and when democracy is under violent and ferocious assault. It's easy to recognize, to understand, comprehend, to respect

I and others can identify with such commonly felt concerns and apprehension despite not being Thai. Can you identify with how Thai people themselves might feel about it? Perhaps not.

The democratic mind knows this and comprehends it, respects it.

Edited by Publicus
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When I got to the bit about the BKK elite I stopped reading as I do every time I see the same garbage.

These people have no real idea of what is happening in this country.

Oh i think they know exactly what they are doing to the country, same thing that is happening in Europe, bankrupt the country then ask for borrowed money coming from their own pockets, self interest, insider trading, call it what you like, (these politics are looking after their own interests and then someone will have to pay, the citizens of Thailand) it's a corrupt country and lives like that, would you agree ?

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Who was afraid in Isaan, in Chiang Mai, Udon, Ubon, Surin or anywhere else north of BKK? Why did they abandon their right to vote, or vote NO?

Rich, poor, anyone in between get scared when there is militant violence occurring in connection with an event that affects all citizens 18 yo and older.

Such violence can happen anywhere, any time.

Scared g/fs and elderly and middle aged people - anyone regardless of geography - get anxious and fearful of any violence in their society, connected to an event that affects anyone who wants to participate in the event and is eligible to participate. This is especially so in an election and when democracy is under violent and ferocious assault. It's easy to recognize, to understand, comprehend, to respect

I and others can identify with such commonly felt concerns and apprehension despite not being Thai. Can you identify with how Thai people themselves might feel about it? Perhaps not.

The democratic mind knows this and comprehends it, respects it.

Where was there a threat of such violence north of Bangkok that kept so many people away from the polls?

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