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How do you envisage the future of Thailand?


LiveInHope

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First I would like to say I believe it is a good thing to discuss.

That being said I am sorry that not many cared to discuss it. A lot of talk on the past and not much thought on the future. Just people seeing a repeat over and over again.

I have been here for only 8 years and have seen a definite improvement in Thailand. Not the Government. The only chance the government ever had was when Abhist was in and it was such a diverse minority government that he couldn't really do much. He did manage to stop the rise in corruption for two years and given more years may have been able to turn it around.

The reason I say Thailand is improving is because today it is the grass root people becoming more aware of the corruption the government has perpetrated on them. They are coming forth in opposition to it. They are no longer ignorant of it or accepting the little bit of it they knew about.

People for the most part want to talk about the past and claim that the future is going to be the same. With thinking like that of course they are going to miss the positive changes in Thailand. The expats who post here on Thai Visa for the most part think Suthep created this situation. They are completely clueless. The situation on the anti government side arose with many different groups of grass root people becoming aware of the corruption and standing up to it. The grass roots created Suthep. Suthep did not create the grass roots. Even though the grass roots created Suthep people choose to throw rocks at him rather than the people who created him.

Thailand owes a great deal of thanks to Suthep for keeping it going as long as he has. The people who created him have to work for a living so it is only natural that the people in the streets will decline. That does not mean they no longer support the idea of a more honest government. For the next year to two I see turmoil. I how ever believe it is necessary for Thailand to become a more honest and stronger country. It is possible though and the nay sayers will never be of any use in it happening. They are like the people who sit in a pile of shi t and don't move because it is so warm and comfortable.

In ten years I look for a much better Thailand thanks to the people who have come forward and admitted there is some thing wrong. That was the start of the change.

For those who want to judge the future by the past and ignore today I might suggest they don't have to go back very far. Look at the government under Abhist it was a very dispersed minority government with out the ability to just say do this and every one jump. Yet they were able to stop a very steady rise in corruption and hold it as long as they were in office. It is as to be expected on the rise again with out them in office. They did not have the power or the time necessary to eliminate a lot of it. I am not some brainless fool that thinks they or any body else can eliminate it all.

It will take time I don't rule out 10 years to get there but it will be for the most part an easier ride than the next year or two.

No matter who the next parliament elects to be Prime Minister it will get better. Even the present one now understands that the people are not happy they want there cut of the pie.

For myself I am retired and did not come here to make a living. I came because I enjoyed Thailand and Thai people. The government well that is some thing I can do nothing about except post on Thai Visa and it doesn't really affect my life. Well it does affect the value of my money but I knew that coming over here in the first place.

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1/ more and more tourists will go to burma and less to thailand

2/ burma will become economically more powerful than thailand (explaining why TS is with one leg in burma already)

3/ the ever rather low-profile burmese (i mean all major ethnics in burma and not just bamar) will laugh with thailand's hubris (they already do so now btw)

The average Thai cable TV subscriber spends more on TV than the average Burmese person makes total in a year.

I think the maids for the hotels will come from Burma to work in Thailand for the foreseeable future rather than the reverse. Do the Royhingas come from Burma? Do they laugh a lot? I think the Thai treatment of the Royhinga is terrible but they are trying to escape from Burma for a reason.

1/ rohingya are a NOT major ethnic group, in fact there are NOT recognised whatsoever (not that i agree with that) and only represent 1% of entire burma population

2/ the OP asks about future of thailand. the future is that all burmese people i have met in the last 18 years - i'm visiting the country up to 4 months a year in total - have an UNSEEN/UNRIVALLED ambition, something that does not exist in thailand because the people here have a good life even the ones living on 300tb/day.

sure, plenty of people in burma currently live below the poverty threshold but at least there is a REASON for that (50 years of isolation under fascist government). the people in thailand that live below the poverty line have no ambition whatsoever or little ambition. they wait for TS to give them cheap mobile phones, cheap boose and cheap hospital care. what else does one need in this vale of tears called life.

we will speak again in 10 years, when thailand will realise its superior (based on 50% luck and 50% shameless opportunism) position in SE-asia has evaporized. sextourists will go to burma, tourists will go to burma, big multinationals will go to burma, idians will travel to burma (yangon will be BKK of the future), gas and oil will come from burma, water energy will come from burma, major highways linking INDIA with THAILAND/CHINA/VIETNAM/CAMBODIA will pass through burma, etc.... u have seen nothing yet.

Edited by stickylies
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and in addition to what i wrote above: i will leave thailand somewhere in the next 1-3 years. many have left before, but i have had no bad experiences here ever since i part-time resided here, that is: no mariage, no ripoffs, no food poisoning, no psychotic ex-gf's, no overpriced barfines (no barfine whatsoever), no jetski scam, no STD, not even 1 bath police fine! ... the reason i will leave is simple: thailand is becoming like the west. it's 17 years i'm away from the west and i admit that it becomes tough to find a genuinely "un-westernized AKA un-consumerism" place on this globe, but i don't give up...

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1/ rohingya are a NOT major ethnic group, in fact there are NOT recognised whatsoever (not that i agree with that) and only represent 1% of entire burma population

2/ the OP asks about future of thailand. the future is that all burmese people i have met in the last 18 years - i'm visiting the country up to 4 months a year in total - have an UNSEEN/UNRIVALLED ambition, something that does not exist in thailand because the people here have a good life even the ones living on 300tb/day.

sure, plenty of people in burma currently live below the poverty threshold but at least there is a REASON for that (50 years of isolation). the people in thailand that live below the poverty line have no ambition. or little ambition. they wait for TS to give them cheap mobile phones, cheap boose and cheap hospital care.

we will speak again in 10 years, when thailand will realise its superior (based on 50% luck and 50% shameless opportunism) position in SE-asia has evaporized. sextourists will go to burma, tourists will go to burma, big multinationals will go to burma, idians will travel to burma (yangon will be BKK of the future), gas and oil will come from burma, water energy will come from burma, major highways linking INDIA with THAILAND/CHINA/VIETNAM/CAMBODIA will pass through burma, etc.... u have seen nothing yet.

You apparently have forgotten that Burma has a totalitarian government that kills it's civilian population at will.

Since the end of WWII Burma has failed miserably and Thailand (by comparison) has succeeded magnificently.

Burma will still be supplying Thailand with menial labor for the next 50 years because the infrastructure to help Burma succeed is not an overnight thing, it's a 50 year thing. Even if they farmed out the government to Singapore tomorrow it would still take 50 years. Teachers in Thailand make in a month what Burmese make in a year. Does that give you a clue how long it is going to take to buy a Scoopy?

I know you are trying to make a point and that is well and good but you have to get somewhere near the realm of reality to be believable.

I'm sure you were not here to hear it but there were people saying the same thing 40 years ago.

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^^ 1/ it seems u don't know current situation in burma. 2/ it seems u don't know current situation in thailand either. 3/ u are SO overlooking what i write (typical on TV) where people don't read but only rant). conclusion: waste of time and energy. over & out.

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^^ 1/ it seems u don't know current situation in burma. 2/ it seems u don't know current situation in thailand either. 3/ u are SO overlooking what i write (typical on TV) where people don't read but only rant). conclusion: waste of time and energy. over & out.

Lack of proper reading is apparant....dont give up trying.....to make a point.....

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Let me remind you all of a very important rule here. Posts have been removed

2) Not to express disrespect of the King of Thailand or anyone else in the Thai royal family, whether living or deceased, nor to criticize the monarchy as an institution. Speculation, comments and discussion of either a political or personal nature are not allowed when discussing HM The King or the Royal family. Discussion of the lese majeste law or lese majeste cases is permitted on the forum, providing no comment or speculation is made referencing the royal family. To breach this rule will result in immediate ban.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?app=forums&module=extras&section=boardrules

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^^ 1/ it seems u don't know current situation in burma. 2/ it seems u don't know current situation in thailand either. 3/ u are SO overlooking what i write (typical on TV) where people don't read but only rant). conclusion: waste of time and energy. over & out.

Hospitals? ATM's outside of Rangoon? Banks where I can have my SS payment transferred? Cell phone data transmission and internet connection? Retirement Visa? Auto rental? ........

Dream on fella.

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Good heavens.

So much for hoping it wouldn't kick off some political pissing match. Shins this, Dems that. wink.png

In my opinion 'national politics' is a very superficial affair and no matter which party or which color shirts are on top politically, they ultimately have a negligible impact on your day-to-day. In fact the whole of governmental/parliamentary politics combined is only one of the pillars that shape Thailand, and then probably the most redundant one. It all seems very exciting for those with the time and inclination to gaze at Tweets by George, Mr. Barrow and The Nation's crew of cheermonkeys, but when you stop doing that you realize this is a great example of a squabble by 'two dogs worried the other will get the fish bone' to use a Thai proverb; Utterly inconsequential to your life, your grocery shopping, your round of golf, and your evening beer.

Or the above as an epic summary of the bleeding obvious: "Very few people retire in Thailand because of the great political system." If that was a factor then y'all would be in Sweden. ;)

When looking at a long term (10 year) retirement at best you can make some assumptions on where Thailand is heading economically in general, rising prices, etc. One last comment on politics: both sides are generally pro business / free market economy and growing the country. They're corrupt in different ways but it's not like one side wants to turn Thailand into Bhutan or something. So you're mostly looking at making sure that your income is sufficient and inflation-proof.

And then in general, this is the 21st century. People don't emigrate permanently anymore. You're a citizen of the world. If you get bored in 5-10 years then you move. If Hua Hin gets more expensive than the French Riviera then you move. If the Killing Fields kick off in 5 years then you move. It's all fairly simple if you don't make big investments and keep your options open. Stay flexible. Go with the flow.

And for gawd sakes just do a big rolleyes.gif 'rolleyes' rolleyes.gif at Thai politics. It. Does. Not. Matter. Soi dogs vying for scraps.

Edited by WinnieTheKhwai
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In the more than 36 years I have lived here, I have heard nearly every flavor of gloom and doom. Strangely I have often done better during the more convoluted periods of recent Thai history.
I guess it make people feel better to pontificate and prognosticate about the future, trying to make sense of something which is so confusing and unknowable.
I continue to feel confident that most people are resilient and will find a way to navigate whatever comes and that nobody knows what the future holds.

I agree. The average working man will still get up, do an honest days work, go home to his family and raise them best he can; as will the average working woman. The large majority of Thais will still be lovely people and life will go on as it does daily. Sure, corruption will no doubt still be rife, but Thais are incredibly resilient and will ALWAYS at the final fence, no matter how divided, find common ground in their Thainess, something we will never quite understand. Corruption will fell the economy sooner or later, and over again, I'm sure. But one day a young politician will rise through the ranks and spit in the face of those who try to grease his/her palms, take the backing of the people and change things forever. It probably won't be in my lifetime or yours, but it will happen, one day.

Let Thai people do things their way in their time. Outside of that there is plenty we can do to help make the country a stronger, better place to live – simply by being kind, honest, polite and contributing positively to the local community we live in best we can.

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I left because I was not gojng to let my kids be luuk kreung popping up into the thai job market with maybe only overseas university.

Nationalism is on the rise, and I don't want my kids to have to run the gauntlet of this issue. They will come back to thailand as fluent luuk kreung with the full run of highschool and overseas university which can give them.access to work both inside and outside thailand.

As Thailand starts to lose ground to other up and coming countries I expect this nationalism to only get worse.

Edited by Thai at Heart
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In the long run, Thailand has a history of muddling along politically and doing pretty well economically. By doing pretty well, I mean fabulously well for the 20 or so families that reportedly control about 80% of the wealth in Thailand. The rest of the folks are thrown just enough crumbs to get by, some as working poor and the lucky ones as middle class.

Between the dirt poor (IMO still > 60-70% ) and the top elites (IMO > 40-50 families now) that own maybe 60% of the productive assets, the trend is definitely growing groups in between.

IF there is ever a chance for a genuine grassroots-driven less corrupt maybe even more genuinely democratic governance here - and I don't think that's what we're seeing in recent years - it must come from the bottom groups banding together in common interests.

The top strata will not be able to fight corruption until they're willing to lose their size-of-the-pie FACE in exhange for allowing the whole pie to grow faster, opening up to more genuine competition.

Might happen one day.

Maybe.

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In the long run, Thailand has a history of muddling along politically and doing pretty well economically. By doing pretty well, I mean fabulously well for the 20 or so families that reportedly control about 80% of the wealth in Thailand. The rest of the folks are thrown just enough crumbs to get by, some as working poor and the lucky ones as middle class.

Between the dirt poor (IMO still > 60-70% ) and the top elites (IMO > 40-50 families now) that own maybe 60% of the productive assets, the trend is definitely growing groups in between.

IF there is ever a chance for a genuine grassroots-driven less corrupt maybe even more genuinely democratic governance here - and I don't think that's what we're seeing in recent years - it must come from the bottom groups banding together in common interests.

The top strata will not be able to fight corruption until they're willing to lose their size-of-the-pie FACE in exhange for allowing the whole pie to grow faster, opening up to more genuine competition.

Might happen one day.

Maybe.

Funfon (or should I say Johhny), why do you bother quoting these "IMO statistics"?

Do you think your "IMO stats" are actually worth anything?

PS. Did you ever get round to paying your rent?

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In the short term, business as usual--even with all the political upheavel. In fact, political upheavel has become the new normal for Thailand. So, corruption as usual, poor public planning, make it up as you go fiscal policy, stagnant education, and Thai people getting by as they usually do.

A decade from now? I see a sharp decline relative to Thailand's ASEAN neighbors. It may be battling Laos and Cambodia for last place. Malaysia's public infrastructure seems okay and getting better, Myanmar has nowhere to go but up, Indonesia is the poor man's China, and the Philippines, I think, has a real opportunity to rid itself of domestic terrorism and regain a leadership position in the region. I see Thailand's infrastructure being dangerously eroded and the cycle of natural disasters ever more devastating. Most of all, I fear where this country will go with the ultimate changing of its leadership. That promises to unleash the hounds of hell. So, 10 years from now? Much more unstable, increasingly violent and disunited, and relatively poorer. I could always be wrong, however, and I hope I am wrong.

Edited by zydeco
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^^ 1/ it seems u don't know current situation in burma. 2/ it seems u don't know current situation in thailand either. 3/ u are SO overlooking what i write (typical on TV) where people don't read but only rant). conclusion: waste of time and energy. over & out.

OP, I don't think it is the country, I think it's you. If you are happy with yourself, you'll be happy anywhere.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

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^^ 1/ it seems u don't know current situation in burma. 2/ it seems u don't know current situation in thailand either. 3/ u are SO overlooking what i write (typical on TV) where people don't read but only rant). conclusion: waste of time and energy. over & out.

Hospitals? ATM's outside of Rangoon? Banks where I can have my SS payment transferred? Cell phone data transmission and internet connection? Retirement Visa? Auto rental? ........

Dream on fella.

Read his posts.Those are western things he is trying to get away from the west.

Can't say as I blame him to a point. But I do find it a bit upsetting when I walk through as big western type mall and see it full of Thais.

Indeed it is a slow process but the western culture is forcing out the Thai culture.

Part of the allure to me in Thailand was the difference in the culture. More and more I am seeing it turn to the merchandize orientated Western culture. Not sure my Thai wife would want to move there any how and I do not want to lose her. She is the best thing to ever happen to me. Also I do enjoy a lot of the western movies and food. Also the electronics all though I am not very proficient with them. I do not have a phone with a camera and the ability to tell me all kinds of things. Well I can store phone numbers and it tells me the time. Also has a flashlight that I am not sure how to turn on and off.

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well if this is not a troll post then I would say that once the shins are removed from the scene Thailand should do quite well. The only thing holding it back are all the finances that are being used to pander/ bribe their supporters. once it goes back into genuine renenue and used for the betterment of the whole country it will make a heap of difference. As long as we have the reds/yellows at each others throats everything is uncertain but if thaksin/the shins can be removed from the scene there is a good chance the country will do very well, especially if all the corruption can be controlled/eliminated and the police start doing what they are paid to do. Still lots of maybe's but I am hopefull and will be here to watch it unfold.

well if this is not a troll post

It's hard to imagine what value could be obtained from asking this question here at the hub-of-self-absorbed-whiners.

The results should be as meaningful as if you asked what posters thought of the Rienmann Hypothesis regarding the distribution of prime numbers.

You have a point there, Suradit.

Personally, having a passing interest in quantum mechanics when there's nothing more stimulating on Thai TV, I find The Yang-Mills and Mass Gap problem is a significantly more exercising mindstretcher (in the absence of The Nation crossword of course).

The Rienmann Hypothsesis reminds me too much of boring old Thai politics I'm afraid. There are just too many zeros to contemplate.

coffee1.gif

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Hopefully these political mess does not effect tourist and expats. Just cross finger to be safe in this mess. I feel property prices will crush as it was already over priced. The Baht may get weaker to improve export and more tourist into the country as well as more expats. Many are leaving for Lao, Vietnam etc etc as they find it cheaper. Corruption will continue no matter who rule the country, well this is the third world country like all the others. I think the laws will become more relaxed in future to attract more foreigners to invest and live here. Malaysia is giving 10 years visa and you can work, buy land etc. The only advise I have is to keep your money in your own country and transfer when needed. Cheers and live well in a land of smiles.

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Yes, I am in New Zealand now, and after three winters in Thailand, I miss the country so much.

My Wife is an Isaan girl, and we recently had to send some money to her parent rice farmers .

She is happy here and earns good money as a kitchen hand

I never saw the corruption of previous Governments so I can not say other than our bitter resentment of the Shinawatra clan.

To us perhaps the politic is not a direct influence, but the end of Thaksin will be a great day for Thailand

I look for signs of strength within Thailand and I see nothing.

Maybe some students are gathering somewhere.

If I was a Thai I would be organizing now to take my country to good hands

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Thailand needs a strong, "honest" leader that most all can support. There is too much divide in the country. The north and the south. I dream of the day when there is much more harmony and love but for the short term (5-10) years I think Thailand will be still fighting and things will get worst until something big happens. People in the "land of smiles" don't seem happy anymore. I don't have an answer. All I can do is be the best person I can be here in Thailand and respect those that show respect for me. A smile still goes a long way in Thailand. As anywhere else in the world, it's never a good idea to talk about politics or religion. Without these topic discussions I believe the people can come closer together or at least this is my hope. We all have something in common. If we choose, we can all be critical of persons, places and things. It all come down to attitude. Your attitude, my attitude. We all have a choice. We can nit-pick and complain but we can also demonstrate more compassion and understanding. Brothers and fighting brothers and sisters alike. It's sad but the people are resistance to change. How to change? Is it possible?

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Thailand could prosper and become a powerhouse in ASEAN. The way to do this is to stop people having to buy their promotions and positions. Make all promotions and positions picked on merit. Therefore there is is not the urgency to recoup the money, via corruption. I see evidence even from the head of the villages up. Head of village has to pay out, for example, 10 million baht to be elected. The family is the at a loss so the only way forward for them is to recoup what they have paid out. Hence corruption and thievery at this lowest level of power. Police have to pay for promotion. And this is by no means small change. Therefore once in position they need to get that money back. The problem is twofold in this system. Firstly you never get the best candidate for the job. Its only who has the biggest purse. Secondly that money has to be re-paid to the family or where ever those funds came from. I am sure this is endemic throughout the whole Thai system. Merit based promotions will give the best and most suitable people the positions and thus go towards the stopping of corruption. Small steps but thas what Thailand needs to go forward.

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Since absolute monarchy was dissolved in Thailand in 1932 there has been 12 Coups in Thailand, with the last one being in 2006. In World History of the total Coups per country, only Bolivia, which hasn't had a coup in 30 years, Haiti, and Afghanistan, had have more. So it leaves me to wonder why everyone is making such a big deal of this political unrest that is going on right now.

I think history repeats itself. So to guess where Thailand will be 10 years from now you need to look 10 years backward first. More modernisation, especially in farming communities. Tractors and Private Trucks, instead of Water Buffalo. More Modern Appliances, like Washing Machines, instead of Scrub Boards. Mostly because of more opportunity to get credit from bank then ever before.

Thailand will remain strong in the Manufactory Sector, having skilled labour working for lower wages. But these wages will come up as a result of a shortage, and although not near as high as the West, this will increase the cost of living here. Just as it has done these past 10 years. Thailand lacks the Resources to become a rich nation. Oil, Natural Gas or Coal (for Cheap Power Generation), Gold, Iron or Copper. So they will remain reliant on this which will hold them back financially.

With joining ASEAN, I expect to see more migration from younger educated Thai's to countries like Japan, Korea, and even perhaps China, for better wages. Leaving a shortage of skilled workers here. Taking over the Family Farm will be a thing of the past, so I expect to see larger, more efficient farms in the next 10 years or so.

There will be more migration to Retire to Thailand, as the Baby Boomers continue to retire in the next 10 years. Also more Russians and Chinese. More money being spent on luxury items and medical care. Also, with more money coming home from Overseas, I again expect to see the cost of living to go up and up. Not to the level of what Singapore is now, but perhaps on some items, higher than the West. .

You wrote, "With joining ASEAN, I expect to see more migration from younger educated Thai's to countries like Japan, Korea, and even perhaps China, for better wages"

Japan, Korea and China are not members of ASEAN.

You wrote, "Thailand lacks the Resources to become a rich nation. Oil, Natural Gas or Coal (for Cheap Power Generation), Gold, Iron or Copper. So they will remain reliant on this which will hold them back financially."

Perhaps you could list the resources of Japan and Singapore?

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Thailand could prosper and become a powerhouse in ASEAN. The way to do this is to stop people having to buy their promotions and positions. Make all promotions and positions picked on merit. Therefore there is is not the urgency to recoup the money, via corruption. I see evidence even from the head of the villages up. Head of village has to pay out, for example, 10 million baht to be elected. The family is the at a loss so the only way forward for them is to recoup what they have paid out. Hence corruption and thievery at this lowest level of power. Police have to pay for promotion. And this is by no means small change. Therefore once in position they need to get that money back. The problem is twofold in this system. Firstly you never get the best candidate for the job. Its only who has the biggest purse. Secondly that money has to be re-paid to the family or where ever those funds came from. I am sure this is endemic throughout the whole Thai system. Merit based promotions will give the best and most suitable people the positions and thus go towards the stopping of corruption. Small steps but thas what Thailand needs to go forward.

You wrote, "Thailand could prosper and become a powerhouse in ASEAN."

They already are. Maybe check the GDP of ASEAN Members.

The rest of ASEAN are more corrupt or at least as corrupt as Thailand. Burma and Vietnam and Cambodia are not exactly shining examples of democratic government in fact or principle. And promotion based on merit? 555 ya right, Laos and the Philippines?

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