el jefe Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Back to the OP's question -- "Was I foolish to change now, or should I have waited? What do you think?" Since he answered his own question with "While confident it will be 60 at some time this year, needed a bit of a buffer." So, yes, I think you were foolish to change now if you're confident you could do 10% better within the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 A forecast has a life expectancy of thirty seconds after it was made and no more, regardless of who made it and for what purpose. Twaddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Too much of Western economies (and Thailand) depend on consumer spending. That's like a group of guys standing in a circle, each with his hand in the next guy's pocket, and all expecting to get rich. At some point, to reach that "a rising tide lifts all boats" point, you have to create new wealth for people to actually have more money. New wealth is created when a farmer harvests a crop, or raw steel and plastic is turned into a new car, or aluminum into a new Airbus, or raw materials into a new jet engine, or trees and stone are turned into a new building... And all of this creates jobs and generates taxes for the government. Rising home prices don't create new wealth. It's just paper numbers for the same wealth. The price could drop like a rock. Only a new home is new wealth, created by transforming raw materials. Only a new home creates jobs, and it creates them on down the line. The West is stuck right now, passing the same wealth around. It needs to get it's manufacturing and inventing going strong again to create new wealth, new jobs, and new tax payments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uptheos Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 What does Warren Buffet think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 A forecast has a life expectancy of thirty seconds after it was made and no more, regardless of who made it and for what purpose. Twaddle. A forecast is a calculated guess at the future based on what's happened in the past, if the data and assumptions that are input are not current, the forecast looses accuracy and becomes invalid - a currency exchange forecast is the same as trying to predict the future and even where every known risk and uncertainty is quantified, previously unidentified factors come into play to invalidate the forecast, end of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 A forecast has a life expectancy of thirty seconds after it was made and no more, regardless of who made it and for what purpose. Twaddle. A forecast is a calculated guess at the future based on what's happened in the past, if the data and assumptions that are input are not current, the forecast looses accuracy and becomes invalid - a currency exchange forecast is the same as trying to predict the future and even where every known risk and uncertainty is quantified, previously unidentified factors come into play to invalidate the forecast, end of. Abstract twaddle (more of) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 (edited) A forecast has a life expectancy of thirty seconds after it was made and no more, regardless of who made it and for what purpose. Twaddle. A forecast is a calculated guess at the future based on what's happened in the past, if the data and assumptions that are input are not current, the forecast looses accuracy and becomes invalid - a currency exchange forecast is the same as trying to predict the future and even where every known risk and uncertainty is quantified, previously unidentified factors come into play to invalidate the forecast, end of. Abstract twaddle (more of) OK Yoshiwara, why don't you tell us all what a forecast is and I'll remind you of forum rules at this juncture! BTW Had you in mind specifically when I posted this: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/705513-thaivisa-is-no-fun-anymore-full-of-trolls-whackos-haters-and-mogs/page-2#entry7462707 Edited February 20, 2014 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrWorldwide Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 (edited) GBP just dipped sharply against the USD - interesting times ahead. Scratch that - the drop wasnt as sharp as I'd initially feared. Edited February 20, 2014 by MrWorldwide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chriso12 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On the 5 year chart of GBP/THB X rate your move sure was not bad. However I would not yet make a decision and send more money to Thailand as things can still turn very nasty here. I am not one of those doom and gloom guys as I trade stocks here in Thailand a lot and have a condo... but as for now I would still wait. Its not really about the exchange rate that you should worry about primarily but rather to what extent they might restrict Falangs even further with their cash that they have here. It is really my main worry who will pay if things get a lot worse. If I had to make a prediction I would dare to say that GBP/THB X rates wont reach 60 this year. The stock exchange of Thailand has become a lot quieter and some optimism is returning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalangBaa Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 A forecast has a life expectancy of thirty seconds after it was made and no more, regardless of who made it and for what purpose. Twaddle. Couldn't agree more! Every forecast is worth at least 15 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davejones23 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You don't have any control of exchange rates, so you may as well stop worrying about them. They go up and down all the time. You say you are confident that it will got to £1=60 baht. What makes you think that? If you're so confident, then why are you asking on here. Just transfer teh money when you need it and stop worrying. So what if it goes to 60 and you exchanged at 54. That's life. No point stressing over it. You may as well stay in UK if it's such a worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiftyTwo Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 You don't have any control of exchange rates, so you may as well stop worrying about them. They go up and down all the time. You say you are confident that it will got to £1=60 baht. What makes you think that? If you're so confident, then why are you asking on here. Just transfer teh money when you need it and stop worrying. So what if it goes to 60 and you exchanged at 54. That's life. No point stressing over it. You may as well stay in UK if it's such a worry. We all need money to live on. War is coming, but how soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davejones23 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You don't have any control of exchange rates, so you may as well stop worrying about them. They go up and down all the time. You say you are confident that it will got to £1=60 baht. What makes you think that? If you're so confident, then why are you asking on here. Just transfer teh money when you need it and stop worrying. So what if it goes to 60 and you exchanged at 54. That's life. No point stressing over it. You may as well stay in UK if it's such a worry. We all need money to live on. War is coming, but how soon? I don't have idea idea what you're talking about. You worry too much.Just get on with life and stop stressing over the small stuff that you can't control. No-one knows where the exchange rate is headed, so no point asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalangBaa Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You don't have any control of exchange rates, so you may as well stop worrying about them. They go up and down all the time. You say you are confident that it will got to £1=60 baht. What makes you think that? If you're so confident, then why are you asking on here. Just transfer teh money when you need it and stop worrying. So what if it goes to 60 and you exchanged at 54. That's life. No point stressing over it. You may as well stay in UK if it's such a worry. We all need money to live on. War is coming, but how soon? My guess is May/June for it all to start really kicking off. What is ultimately going to happen in Thailand will make Pol Pot's shenanigans in Cambodia look like child's play by comparison. It's not going to be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davejones23 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I notice the BOE made a statement yesterday that their hands are tied and nothing they can do to curb property price increases. Previously interest rate rises were one of the main tools to use. Obviously at present they have no intention of raising rates which should be worrying for residents of the UK as property is now out of reach for the majority. Average house price, 250,000 average salary 25,000...not sustainable even with an influx of immigrants each year making net immigration 2013 of almost 200,000. Carney seems to be a better choice than that fossil Mervyn King and is not shy of taking adverse emergency measures which could have an effect to either weaken or benefit Sterling. We have noticed a number of UK citizens that have rented for the past few years now taking advantage of higher Sterling and purchasing. This is a load of BS.How can property be out of reach to the majority, when the majority in fact already own a house? Property sales are up, meaning more people are buying. Plenty of people can afford to buy in the UK. The vast majority can afford to. There is a huge amount of equity in UK property. I know numerous people that own outright without mortgages. What you miss in your average house 250K, average salary 25K little rant is the bit about average deposit. In the UK as a whole, the average deposit put down on a property purchase is 40-50%. Harder for first time buyers of course, but they shouldn't be buying averaged priced property. They should be buying at the cheaper end, so still affordable, especially as a couple, which is most first-time buyers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You don't have any control of exchange rates, so you may as well stop worrying about them. They go up and down all the time. You say you are confident that it will got to £1=60 baht. What makes you think that? If you're so confident, then why are you asking on here. Just transfer teh money when you need it and stop worrying. So what if it goes to 60 and you exchanged at 54. That's life. No point stressing over it. You may as well stay in UK if it's such a worry. We all need money to live on. War is coming, but how soon? My guess is May/June for it all to start really kicking off. What is ultimately going to happen in Thailand will make Pol Pot's shenanigans in Cambodia look like child's play by comparison. It's not going to be pretty. Keep taking the medication,and get lots of bed rest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davejones23 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You don't have any control of exchange rates, so you may as well stop worrying about them. They go up and down all the time. You say you are confident that it will got to £1=60 baht. What makes you think that? If you're so confident, then why are you asking on here. Just transfer teh money when you need it and stop worrying. So what if it goes to 60 and you exchanged at 54. That's life. No point stressing over it. You may as well stay in UK if it's such a worry. We all need money to live on. War is coming, but how soon? My guess is May/June for it all to start really kicking off. What is ultimately going to happen in Thailand will make Pol Pot's shenanigans in Cambodia look like child's play by comparison. It's not going to be pretty. Yet more BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You don't have any control of exchange rates, so you may as well stop worrying about them. They go up and down all the time. You say you are confident that it will got to £1=60 baht. What makes you think that? If you're so confident, then why are you asking on here. Just transfer teh money when you need it and stop worrying. So what if it goes to 60 and you exchanged at 54. That's life. No point stressing over it. You may as well stay in UK if it's such a worry. We all need money to live on. War is coming, but how soon? My guess is May/June for it all to start really kicking off. What is ultimately going to happen in Thailand will make Pol Pot's shenanigans in Cambodia look like child's play by comparison. It's not going to be pretty. Making light of the Pol Pot regime in comparison with current activities in Thailand is juvenile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davejones23 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 If they wanted to curb house prices, they could, trouble is they don't want to. How's about raising Stamp Duty by thirty per cent or imposing a capital gains tax TODAY where the property is held by an overseas buyer or is held by anyone else for less than a specific period! There's loads of ways to cool the market but nobody in government or the BOE wants that, elections are not that far away, remember. That's true, but the BoE said they couldn't control it. BoE don't have the power to raise stamp duty, as that's the government's job. But it's very true that the UK government don't want to curb property price inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davejones23 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Too much of Western economies (and Thailand) depend on consumer spending. That's like a group of guys standing in a circle, each with his hand in the next guy's pocket, and all expecting to get rich. At some point, to reach that "a rising tide lifts all boats" point, you have to create new wealth for people to actually have more money. New wealth is created when a farmer harvests a crop, or raw steel and plastic is turned into a new car, or aluminum into a new Airbus, or raw materials into a new jet engine, or trees and stone are turned into a new building... And all of this creates jobs and generates taxes for the government. Rising home prices don't create new wealth. It's just paper numbers for the same wealth. The price could drop like a rock. Only a new home is new wealth, created by transforming raw materials. Only a new home creates jobs, and it creates them on down the line. The West is stuck right now, passing the same wealth around. It needs to get it's manufacturing and inventing going strong again to create new wealth, new jobs, and new tax payments. Rising property prices can create new wealth within a specific country if foreigners are buying, like in London. Those foreigners are bringing money into the country and that creates jobs in UK. But takes wealth away from the country the foreigner is from. e.g. a Brit buys for 100k in London and sells 20 years later to a foreigner for 1,000K. The Brit then buys a house in the country for 300K and has 700K spending money. He spends the money in UK, thereby helping to create jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 A forecast is a calculated guess at the future based on what's happened in the past, if the data and assumptions that are input are not current, the forecast looses accuracy and becomes invalid - a currency exchange forecast is the same as trying to predict the future and even where every known risk and uncertainty is quantified, previously unidentified factors come into play to invalidate the forecast, end of. Abstract twaddle (more of) OK Yoshiwara, why don't you tell us all what a forecast is and I'll remind you of forum rules at this juncture! BTW Had you in mind specifically when I posted this: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/705513-thaivisa-is-no-fun-anymore-full-of-trolls-whackos-haters-and-mogs/page-2#entry7462707 Bump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Flight funds from Europe and elsewhere, invested in London real estate, does not create wealth in the UK, it's safe haven and can fly, without tax, in an instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Flight funds from Europe and elsewhere, invested in London real estate, does not create wealth in the UK, it's safe haven and can fly, without tax, in an instance. Money invested in London property cannot 'fly in an instance'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 (edited) You're a jerk Yoshiwara, no wonder you changed your name. Edited February 20, 2014 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Rising property prices can create new wealth within a specific country if foreigners are buying, like in London. Those foreigners are bringing money into the country and that creates jobs in UK. But takes wealth away from the country the foreigner is from. e.g. a Brit buys for 100k in London and sells 20 years later to a foreigner for 1,000K. The Brit then buys a house in the country for 300K and has 700K spending money. He spends the money in UK, thereby helping to create jobs. today dear children we are getting a lesson in macroeconomics, e.g. how foreigners create jobs in the United Kingdom and impoverish their home countries. sorry Dave, i could not resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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