THAI TALK
If negotiations start, what will be on the agenda?
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation



BANGKOK: -- The caretaker prime minister seems determined to stay the course. The protest leader insists he won't negotiate with the premier. There is no "win-win" solution, he claims. It's either victory or defeat for the movement bent on overthrowing the "Thaksin regime".

Those are the public statements from both Yingluck Shinawatra and Suthep Thaugsuban. Behind the scenes, "third parties" have been proposing negotiations to reach a settlement. Compromise isn't possible as long as both sides are convinced that they can outmanoeuvre the other side. As things stand now, neither side can get off the tiger's back without serious injury.

Thaksin himself has floated a new balloon, through his legal adviser Noppadon Pattana. He was quoted, not for the first time, as saying: "The conflict must be settled at the negotiation table." But then the fugitive ex-premier had also stated unequivocally that he would never accept defeat. You will have to read between the lines, as always.

Yingluck's main condition is that Suthep put an end to the protest and proceed with the election. Suthep's main bargaining point is that Yingluck must quit and that a "people's government headed by a neutral prime minister" be set up along with a "people's assembly" to draw up the country's reform agenda. He has yet to come up with a clear blueprint as to how these new bodies' members would be picked.

Suthep was quoted as saying that Yingluck has proposed that if she steps down, she must decide who the "neutral premier" is. That, of course, is no concession.

Behind-the-scenes efforts to strike a deal for both sides have not been firmed up. But some "honest brokers" have tried to get both sides to start the process of negotiations. Suthep himself may have publicly opposed any compromise talks, but some of his lieutenants have suggested that negotiations haven't been ruled out.

Since no negotiations can be kicked off without the warring parties agreeing that neither side can win every demand, the unofficial negotiators have proposed some scenarios that could help in the "confidence-building" process.

One scenario is for Yingluck to agree to step down in exchange for Suthep's promise to call off the protest. That should be followed by the formation of a "non-partisan interim government" led by a respected personality with no political affiliation. The provisional government will operate with a specific timeline alongside a "national assembly" that represents people from all walks of life to draw up a new constitution and set the national reform agenda.

While the interim administration tends to routine tasks to get the government up and running again, the assembly will be tasked with the responsibility of rewriting the charter and setting down a new set of ground rules to ensure a free and fair general election that should be called within a year to 18 months, with the proviso that the opposition Democrat Party will end its boycott of the election and return to the ballot-box process.

The more complicated part of the negotiations would be demands on the protesters' side that no amnesty must be issued for Thaksin and his family members over court cases that are in the judicial pipeline. Thaksin, naturally, would demand that the compromise must include a provision that he considers "fair" to him, and that judicial actions he considers "unfair" to him must be declared null and void, even retrospectively.

Those "almost impossible" conditions from both sides will prove to be the most tricky and could undermine the talks from the outset. But once the protagonists realise their only way out of this mess is through negotiations and that negotiations mean neither side wins 100 per cent of its demands, some practical solutions will have to be found.

The main reason talks haven't started in any serious manner is that both sides believe they can outlast the other. Yingluck believes the protest movement will wear itself out and that Suthep's campaign isn't sustainable. Suthep is banking on the growing "inevitability" of the downfall of the Yingluck government because of the rice-pledging scandal, the farmers' protest and the expected indictment of Yingluck by the Anti-Corruption Commission over the rice controversy.

As long as it is seen that only the weaker party in a conflict would enter into negotiations, the possibility of a peaceful settlement remains remote. The next two weeks will decide whether serious negotiations can begin. The "zero-sum game" scenario is too risky to ponder because that would be preceded by violence. And that shouldn't be an option in any attempt to achieve a "breakthrough" in this drawn-out, expensive and disastrous conflict.


-- The Nation 2014-02-20

If he even tried to negotiate it may ease tensions and halt deaths for at least the time being. Stop thinking about yourself Suthep and think of everyone.

Huh, you could ask that of the Government, stop thinking about yourselves,step back and negotiate, or better still, rack off.

Negotiations are want from this who participate in the corrupt system, but people dont want a new circle of whealty thugs, they want a clean up of patronage and corruption. No deals with this Mafia...

Yingluck and Suthep's agenda: "One of us has to relocate and its not me".

Politicians agenda: "How do we share the cake?"

(in truth trying to out smart the other guy into thinking he got a great deal)

The elites have to accept the will of the people. The days of Military coups, judicial coups, cooking show coups and cheap undemocratic attempts at power grabs are over, the electorate are sick of this bullying.

" Backroom deals " are the very last thing the Thai people want to see as the outcome of this. The path forward is not the one already trodden. And Thaksin's direct involvement should throw cold water over the whole thing. He's the reason for the whole mess to begin with, and the very reason the PDRC is on the streets. With Yingluck/Thaksin's laughable proposal of naming their own " neutral " prime minister, we are back once again to the string of Thaksin proxies and members of the Shinawatra clan. But the very fact that such a thing was proposed by them completely contradicts Yingluck's previous assertion that stepping down would be unconstitutional. Well, apparently that thought isn't quite as strong enough an argument when it comes to guaranteeing another family member can fill the post. No, backroom deals will not satisfy anyone. There are enough elements already at play to guarantee that this administration goes nowhere. They have no parliament and they are the subject of an impeachment proceeding. The courts must have their constitutional say.

Yingluck and Suthep's agenda: "One of us has to relocate and its not me".

Politicians agenda: "How do we share the cake?"

(in truth trying to out smart the other guy into thinking he got a great deal)

80:20

80 for our pockets

The elites have to accept the will of the people. The days of Military coups, judicial coups, cooking show coups and cheap undemocratic attempts at power grabs are over, the electorate are sick of this bullying.

Many taxpayers are sick of the fact that PT uses their hard earned cash as if it is theirs with zero accountability when stealing it.

PT has to accept the rule of law and should know that mismanagement, corruption and lies will result in punishment regardless of being elected.

One topic that should be on the reform agenda is no immunity for all politiciians under any circumstances.

It must be awfully hot bimbling around Bangkok wearing that balaclava!

I expect everyone knows who he is anyway.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Huh, you could ask that of the Government, stop thinking about yourselves,step back and negotiate, or better still, rack off.

oooh such a drole post, you must be the life and sole of the beer bar with hilarious riposts like that.

Key word in your sentence is Government. That is the difference between the sides. PT are elected, always have been and always will be.

Dems/Suthp never electable and even worse in the future. No place on world stage for them if they get in through coup again and the Sanctions that will instantly follow will get their reign of to such a bad start that their hard core followers will soon jump ship.

Protesting is a Student right of passage and the next intake will be protesting for democracy!!!

Sutheps protest is small fry, very localised and only kept going with the help of his backers. He becomes more a figure of derision everytime he speaks, backtracks, threatens, smarms....

Lovely piece from the nation, a paper that is so in league that it inspired a full page article today on just how biased they are.

Huh, you could ask that of the Government, stop thinking about yourselves,step back and negotiate, or better still, rack off.

oooh such a drole post, you must be the life and sole of the beer bar with hilarious riposts like that.

Key word in your sentence is Government. That is the difference between the sides. PT are elected, always have been and always will be.

Dems/Suthp never electable and even worse in the future. No place on world stage for them if they get in through coup again and the Sanctions that will instantly follow will get their reign of to such a bad start that their hard core followers will soon jump ship.

Protesting is a Student right of passage and the next intake will be protesting for democracy!!!

Sutheps protest is small fry, very localised and only kept going with the help of his backers. He becomes more a figure of derision everytime he speaks, backtracks, threatens, smarms....

Lovely piece from the nation, a paper that is so in league that it inspired a full page article today on just how biased they are.

You are correct. The Keyword in your sentence too is governemnt

Sadly for you the PTP is NOT the government nor does it have the power of a government.

It is a CARETAKER government with very little power and until the election is completed and all the votes cast and completed AND a quorum of 95% MPs are available to open parliament that is what they will stay, unless of course they do the honourable thing and resign en masse which is extremely unlikely as they have no honour nor do they know how to spell it in Thai, English or American.

Next of course they have to get more seats than any other party and if there are constituencies where there is only one party and that party fails to get at least 20% of the vote then there has to be another election rerun.

NEVER count your chickens before they are hatched.