New govt needed by July: Thai economists

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BUSINESS
New govt needed by July: economists
Sucheera Pinijparakarn
The Nation



Warn of bleak outlook if export sector fails to recover

BANGKOK: -- The country's economic outlook remains challenging if a new government cannot be formed by midyear and the export sector does not recover, some economists say.

Kasikorn Research Centre says that even though businesses can resume operating as usual now that the anti-government movement has ended its campaign to paralyse Bangkok and returned the streets to the city's residents, Thai gross domestic product could shrink by 2 per cent this year if a government is not in place by the second half.

The research house has maintained its estimate for GDP growth of 3 per cent as it wants to wait to see how the political situation develops over the next two months, including the expected ruling by the National Anti-Corruption Commission on caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's handling of the rice-pledging scheme.

Pimonwan Mahujchariya-wong, deputy managing director of KResearch, said that if Parliament cannot be opened to discuss the fiscal budget by midyear, the economy in the second half would witness more trouble.

GDP in the first half could expand by 0.3-1.2 per cent year on year despite lower consumption, because exports will be a trigger of economic growth in the second quarter. But if exports are not able to resume healthy growth, there could be a recession, she said.

The worse case is for the economy to grow by only 0.5 per cent this year if the political situation erupts into chaos, said the economist.

Kangana Chockpisansin, head of the macroeconomic research department at KResearch, added that the external political risks in Ukraine and Russia would add pressure to the Thai economy in terms of inflation, because the situation in those two countries would drive up oil prices.

As for Thailand's own domestic difficulties, Siam Commercial Bank's Economic Intelligence Centre agrees that a further delay in the formation of a new government will hold down economic growth even though the EIC forecasts a recovery of export growth to 5 per cent.

The EIC noted that it would be difficult for the economy to stage a rebound from last year's sub-par growth of 2.9 per cent, and GDP in 2014 could grow by only 2.4 per cent.

The centre sees little risk of financial instability, as the Bank of Thailand can reduce the policy interest rate to lessen the financial burden of the weakening economy. A lower interest rate is not likely to send the wrong message and cause households to take on more debt to drive consumption. The EIC expects a 25-basis-poing cut in the policy rate next week and another cut in the first half of the year, leaving the rate at 1.75 per cent for the rest of the year.

However, KResearch takes the view that the BOT's benchmark rate will be left unchanged at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on March 12.

Charl Kengchon, managing director of KResearch, said the house expected the MPC to maintain the rate at 2.25 per cent because the gap between the current policy rate and the inflation rate of 1.93 per cent is narrow, which does not provide room for the committee to cut the rate much. The MPC might decide to monitor the political impacts on the economy for a while before making a move.


-- The Nation 2014-03-04

[renaissanc]

PT doesn't care about the economy. They are only interested in finding ways to stay on the Gravy Train and to pull Thaksin back on as the train driver while they celebrate in the carriages.

[noitom]

The Thai poor will start eyeing up those empty lots like the MBK photo above. They will perceive it to be an opportunity to camp in, free hotel space in the big city and enter the sex trade or begging trade, become cheap illegal labor, or petty criminal activity.

[rickirs]

An often saying is that you can't put a price on the freedom of speech. Looks like in Thailand we'll have a first. For the sake of the country's economy I hope there will now be more attention given by all political factions to the economic needs of the nation that allows its people to prosper in the face of a very comeptitive world economy. Continuing unresolvable political conflicts will only continue to divide and conquer the nation, a fate no other nation has accomplished in Thailand's history.

[LomSak27]

Dems don't care about the economy they are willing putting the country in the tank to get rid of a rival.

Bet they a re regretting all the claptrap they put out about honest goverment and getting rid of corruption now. Some wise guy is going to bring that up in the future, and ask them about it ... Ooooops

[tezzainoz]

Thai wife tells me that there is much talk now in the village to return to the old ways

daughter over the age of 16 must look after the financial needs of the family

and we all know what that means

there will be those that say 16 is to young, but in Issan when a girl arrives at the age she can make money for the family then she is ready

My wife has spend many hours trying to find work for these young girls, but the amount that are turning up to gathering on what to do are just to many

The only people to win in this Thailand conflict, will be bar owner's in Pattaya and Bkk

Before you say haw bad the girls or their families are, remember they must eat and pay bills

Thailand is heading back to be the worlds No. I sex destination

Why, someone is more interested in her own financial survival than the people she swears to look after

[fab4]

tezzainoz, on 05 Mar 2014 - 09:31, said:tezzainoz, on 05 Mar 2014 - 09:31, said:

Thai wife tells me that there is much talk now in the village to return to the old ways

daughter over the age of 16 must look after the financial needs of the family

and we all know what that means

there will be those that say 16 is to young, but in Issan when a girl arrives at the age she can make money for the family then she is ready

My wife has spend many hours trying to find work for these young girls, but the amount that are turning up to gathering on what to do are just to many

The only people to win in this Thailand conflict, will be bar owner's in Pattaya and Bkk

Before you say haw bad the girls or their families are, remember they must eat and pay bills

Thailand is heading back to be the worlds No. I sex destination

Why, someone is more interested in her own financial survival than the people she swears to look after

So according to your wife, all daughters over the age of 16 in Isaan are to be forced into prostitution because of Yingluck ( who is apparently worried about her own financial survival, current assets: 603 million baht, 28 million baht debt ), or is it just your village?

Do you have any thoughts on this or are they the same as your wife?

Edited March 5, 2014 by fab4

[RubbaJohnny]

The Thai poor will start eyeing up those empty lots like the MBK photo above. They will perceive it to be an opportunity to camp in, free hotel space in the big city and enter the sex trade or begging trade, become cheap illegal labor, or petty criminal activity.

I think they've started a while back,there are even chaps in uniform grazing ,everything is possible in the city of dreams.

Only palce in the world where afte theclosure the printers are having to prepare signs

'WE DON'T APOLOGISE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE

WE DON'T GIVE A TOSS ABOUT OUR CUSTOMERS AND

AND NEVER REGRET THE RECENT EVENTS

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UNDER COMPLETELY NEW MANAGEMENT

WHO AIM TO BRING THE TRADITIONAL LEVELS OF CORRUPTION,MALFEASANCE

TO WHICH OUR CLIENTS ARE ACCUSTOMED

WE'D THANK YOU FOR YOUR UNDERSTANDING,BUT DON'T GIVE A TINKER'S CUSS

Yours temporarily The New Wind of Asia,no con too small,your cash is our concern