Analysis shows Pheu Thai's popularity waning: academic

[webfact]

Analysis shows Pheu Thai's popularity waning: academic
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- A Thammasat University political scientist yesterday launched a website that helps Thais follow politicians' performance by presenting an analysis of the unofficial results of the February 2 election - and he says the analysis shows that the popularity of the ruling Pheu Thai Party is declining.

Attasit Pankaew, founder of the Insight Foundation and www.info.or.th, said the analysis of the election - in which 20.12 million, or 46.79 per cent, of eligible voters cast ballots - showed that the proportion of invalid ballots in 12 of the 38 provinces in which Pheu Thai candidates won exceeded the nationwide average of 13.3 per cent.

All MP-elects come from the Pheu Thai Party.

Furthermore, "no vote" ballots in 14 provinces exceeded the nationwide average of 19.4 per cent, he said,

claiming that these numbers showed a trend of declining popularity for Pheu Thai.


-- The Nation 2014-03-07

[whybother]

Can the mods just close and delete this thread now?

Seriously, this is just a waste of everyone's time.

Sent from my phone ...

[virtualtraveller]

Meaningless article, too thin on data. Another article indicated they had won just 11 million votes, against 15 million last time. Don't forget some PT voters might not have bothered turning out simply knowing their party would win and wouldn't miss their vote. Depending how much popularity the Dems have also lost, PT could well be trumped at the party list level, but will still win the MP race since they dominate in the vast North and NE. They buy off local family politicians. So we might end up with an interesting 'mandate' that is split.

[PatOngo]

"I once was blind,but now I see"............................

[ManofReason]

Can the mods just close and delete this thread now?

Seriously, this is just a waste of everyone's time.

Sent from my phone ...

I say keep the thread.

Come the next election the Democrats will get crushed (for the seventh time in a row) by PTP's overwhelming popularity.

Why not let the Yellow minority enjoy 5 minutes of popularity (even if it is imaginary)

[Thait Spot]

I would be surprised if the PTP and UDD had not lost significant membership due to the following:

Amnesty bill

Cheating on legislation

Cheating on voting in the house

Rice scheme

Non payment of farmers

Secession

Whether those voters become disillusioned and either give up voting altogether or become perennial"No" voters will largely depend on how the dems present themselves and their policies at the next election and who is in charge of them

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[ManofReason]

I would be surprised if the PTP and UDD had not lost significant membership due to the following:

Amnesty bill

Cheating on legislation

Cheating on voting in the house

Rice scheme

Non payment of farmers

Secession

Whether those voters become disillusioned and either give up voting altogether or become perennial"No" voters will largely depend on how the dems present themselves and their policies at the next election and who is in charge of them

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I give the electorate enough credit to be able to separate fact from fiction.

Yellow fiction.

Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble.

Personally, I think the current illegal mini mobs actions have strengthened and united the forces of good in this land which will most likely lead to an ever greater level support for PTP into the future.

[chainarong]

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ManofReason, on 07 Mar 2014 - 08:06, said:

whybother, on 07 Mar 2014 - 07:51, said:

Can the mods just close and delete this thread now?

Seriously, this is just a waste of everyone's time.

Sent from my phone ...

I say keep the thread.

Come the next election the Democrats will get crushed (for the seventh time in a row) by PTP's overwhelming popularity.

Why not let the Yellow minority enjoy 5 minutes of popularity (even if it is imaginary)

And the protests will continue, regardless of who wins , kick both out and appoint a independent parliament. Start again you are both as bad as each other.

Edited March 7, 2014 by chainarong

[kikoman]

Would that indicate now is the opportune time for an election by the anti government forces, it sure seem like the PM and PTP do not enjoy the political following they had, if you pay attention to the nay sayers.

Yet the anti government folks are still against an election, which they believe they will lose, as they still are the Thai minority!

Cheers

[ManofReason]

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ManofReason, on 07 Mar 2014 - 08:06, said:

whybother, on 07 Mar 2014 - 07:51, said:

Can the mods just close and delete this thread now?

Seriously, this is just a waste of everyone's time.

Sent from my phone ...

I say keep the thread.

Come the next election the Democrats will get crushed (for the seventh time in a row) by PTP's overwhelming popularity.

Why not let the Yellow minority enjoy 5 minutes of popularity (even if it is imaginary)

And the protests will continue, regardless of who wins , kick both out and appoint a independent parliament. Start again you are both as bad as each other.

The current protest is a last stand, the death rattle of the dying Yellow insurrection. So don't be too concerned, the decade long series of protests are nearly over, the rout is almost complete.

So, there is no need for an "independent" (by which I assume you mean unelected) parliament, the people of the nation are more than capable of electing their own government and will shortly do so.

[Tatsujin]

Would that indicate now is the opportune time for an election by the anti government forces, it sure seem like the PM and PTP do not enjoy the political following they had, if you pay attention to the nay sayers.

Yet the anti government folks are still against an election, which they believe they will lose, as they still are the Thai minority!

Cheers

So . . . you've gone from claiming a majority for PT to a minority for the Dems . . . love how you spin lol

Right now, I would have said the "majority" are disillusioned with ALL sides.

[ManofReason]

Would that indicate now is the opportune time for an election by the anti government forces, it sure seem like the PM and PTP do not enjoy the political following they had, if you pay attention to the nay sayers.

Yet the anti government folks are still against an election, which they believe they will lose, as they still are the Thai minority!

Cheers

So . . . you've gone from claiming a majority for PT to a minority for the Dems . . . love how you spin lol

Right now, I would have said the "majority" are disillusioned with ALL sides.

I don't think you've understood the post you replied to.

Let me help you.

The OP is simply highlighting that if the Democrats truly believed that the Reds no longer command a majority of support (as the naysayers claim) then they should strike while the iron is hot, contest an election, win and form government. The reality is that the Democrats know the Reds are still a majority and this is why they continue to run away and hide from elections

As for "the majority are disillusioned". Having given up on the Democrats actually gaining supporters you are now reduced to trying to spin that the Reds have lost support not to the Democrats, but to the disillusioned camp.

Could this be true?

If only there were some way to work out what the people of a nation actually want.

I know. How about elections?

I wonder if a free and fair election could provide the answer to our quandary?

[Fryslan boppe]

"A Thammasat University political scientist yesterday launched a website that helps Thais follow politicians' performance by presenting an analysis of the unofficial results of the February 2 election - and he says the analysis shows that the popularity of the ruling Pheu Thai Party is declining"

Some more wishful thinking, expected from so-called academics who are primarily PAD-Dem's, throwing around the characterization of "academic" loosely, trying to add credibility to that agenda.

The above Political Scientist may say that. This Political Scientist would suggest the opposite.

Why would the popularity of the PTP be diminishing?.....Regardless how he tortures rationale, it just doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

In fact, I would suggest that objective data would suggest growth of the PTP.......In the face of all the anti-Democracy idiocy on the streets of BKK, what else could the PTP do, but grow.

No amount of fabricating and magnifying issues as cover for coupist intentions, has any traction. Generally accepted wisdom clearly knows, that these can and should be parliamentarized.

There is a reason the PAD-Dem's are trying to squelch the current election. If anyone thinks the election shows diminished support for the PTP and Ms. Y, do you think for one minute, the anti-Parliamentary Opposition would try to void it.

Besides, Where would the growing electoral majority go, as a result of the anti-Democarcy and anti-electoral shenanigans on BKK. Streets, and appeals to user-friendly judiciary?....The PAD-Dem's side of the political divide has been so damaged by all this stuff, that they are no alternative for the electoral majority.

Finally, what plausible reason would there be for the "waning of PTP popularity"......Do the PAD-Dem's think that their parliamentary and BKK. street excesses are viewed favorably by the electoral majority, whose votes they are trying to invalidate?....If they think that, they are truly in "dreamsville"

I could go on, but suffice it to say using academics to spin myths in support of the PAD-dem's is seen for what it is.

Edited March 7, 2014 by Fryslan boppe

[ShannonT]

Sucks for the Democ rats. They should have participated in the elections.

[timewilltell]

ManofReason, on 07 Mar 2014 - 08:06, said:

whybother, on 07 Mar 2014 - 07:51, said:

Can the mods just close and delete this thread now?

Seriously, this is just a waste of everyone's time.

Sent from my phone ...

I say keep the thread.

Come the next election the Democrats will get crushed (for the seventh time in a row) by PTP's overwhelming popularity.

Why not let the Yellow minority enjoy 5 minutes of popularity (even if it is imaginary)

And the protests will continue, regardless of who wins , kick both out and appoint a independent parliament. Start again you are both as bad as each other.

The current protest is a last stand, the death rattle of the dying Yellow insurrection. So don't be too concerned, the decade long series of protests are nearly over, the rout is almost complete.

So, there is no need for an "independent" (by which I assume you mean unelected) parliament, the people of the nation are more than capable of electing their own government and will shortly do so.

If by capable you mean they can put an X on a piece of paper and put it in a box then yes the majority probably can. If you mean the nation is capable of listening and understanding what each party's policies are and make even a semi-informed decision given the lack of freedom in the press, the lese majeste law, the defamation law and the political energy expended in lies and lack of transparency designed to deceive out matching genuine anything by a factor of about 100, then no they, as a nation, cannot.

Free and fair elections require a free press by their very nature and require no vote buying. In a corrupt country like this I would venture that they should be internationally monitored but unfortunately the Thai psyche will resist that for no logical reason other than the nationalism they are brainwashed with. About the only thing that almost unites them

[northernjohn]

Can the mods just close and delete this thread now?

Seriously, this is just a waste of everyone's time.

Sent from my phone ...

I say keep the thread.

Come the next election the Democrats will get crushed (for the seventh time in a row) by PTP's overwhelming popularity.

Why not let the Yellow minority enjoy 5 minutes of popularity (even if it is imaginary)

Well first of a reasonable man would know it is not a yellow opposition it is a group made up of many different groups.

Secondly there might not be any opposition to the democrats in the next general election. With out the Shinawatra money and dribble the PTP is a toothless mouse.

Out of curiosity o great and mighty reasonable man if the PTP is so popular why are they talking of secession from the country through their armed militia while several of their ministers openly approve of it. That is until the army stepped in.

Why did their leader the Prime Minister mouthpiece for Thaksin Shinawatra not come out and immediately denounce them in public in front of the cameras?

Well there is always the chance Skype wasn't working that well for a couple of days. That would explain her hesitancy in denouncing them right away.

[northernjohn]

Sucks for the Democ rats. They should have participated in the elections.

Well in a way you are right. They would have won.

On the other hand it would have been a back door approval of how the government is run in such a corrupt way.

They recognized that change is necessary and not from just one side. That is why they chose to support the idea of a non elected council to make the changes. Of course the changes would have to go to the voters for approval.

[Thai at Heart]

So what next?

Abhisit an election? Thought not. So what's the point?

[Seastallion]

"...showed that the proportion of invalid ballots in 12 of the 38 provinces in which Pheu Thai candidates won exceeded the nationwide average of 13.3 per cent..."

This shows a decline in PT popularity only if "invalid ballots" translates to "votes for the Opposition and thus were declared invalid".

Otherwise what it really means is Red Shirt territory electorate are a bit more ignorant than the national average as they cast invalid votes (ie, make mistakes on the ballot).

[ginjag]

Freedom, should be the priority here. Press---TV----people able to verbally speak openly in public----.The world over.

We see near election time in Villages and towns in the U.K. yellow blue red stickers in house windows denoting who you as an individual prefer.

Here in Thailand in Issan in particular people do NOT openly speak about their preferences they are afraid of ruffling the feathers of their Family elders, superiors at work, most areas in the N/E are in this situation.

There should be NO appointed red villages, whatever you want/prefer you should not be put down, Imagine putting up a non red colour in your house window in a red village, within a day you will be paid a visit, or have windows missing-you conform. The village head man sorts it out .

If we foreigners speak to locals about what their feelings are, you see the faces change and the subject becomes a no no. Thai people fear very much and seam to have to go with the LOCAL flavor, hence the red and blue areas,

[Thait Spot]

I would be surprised if the PTP and UDD had not lost significant membership due to the following:

Amnesty bill

Cheating on legislation

Cheating on voting in the house

Rice scheme

Non payment of farmers

Secession

Whether those voters become disillusioned and either give up voting altogether or become perennial"No" voters will largely depend on how the dems present themselves and their policies at the next election and who is in charge of them

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I give the electorate enough credit to be able to separate fact from fiction.

Yellow fiction.

Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble.

Personally, I think the current illegal mini mobs actions have strengthened and united the forces of good in this land which will most likely lead to an ever greater level support for PTP into the future.

Blah, blah, blah..... Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble

How is this clear? From election figures where the Dems didn't participate? From PDRC figures where it will never participate?

Half the PTP votes from 2011. Fact

[ManofReason]

I would be surprised if the PTP and UDD had not lost significant membership due to the following:

Amnesty bill

Cheating on legislation

Cheating on voting in the house

Rice scheme

Non payment of farmers

Secession

Whether those voters become disillusioned and either give up voting altogether or become perennial"No" voters will largely depend on how the dems present themselves and their policies at the next election and who is in charge of them

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I give the electorate enough credit to be able to separate fact from fiction.

Yellow fiction.

Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble.

Personally, I think the current illegal mini mobs actions have strengthened and united the forces of good in this land which will most likely lead to an ever greater level support for PTP into the future.

Blah, blah, blah..... Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble

How is this clear? From election figures where the Dems didn't participate? From PDRC figures where it will never participate?

Half the PTP votes from 2011. Fact

The most obvious sign that it is clear is the absolute terror the thought of contesting an election instills in the Democrats. If the Dems actually thought they could win they would be demanding an election. They are not because they know what the result would be.

When you are unloved and unsupported like the Dems, it's better to try any and all backdoor, illegal avenues to power because elections aren't going to give you what you want.

Edited March 7, 2014 by ManofReason

[Thai at Heart]

I would be surprised if the PTP and UDD had not lost significant membership due to the following:

Amnesty bill

Cheating on legislation

Cheating on voting in the house

Rice scheme

Non payment of farmers

Secession

Whether those voters become disillusioned and either give up voting altogether or become perennial"No" voters will largely depend on how the dems present themselves and their policies at the next election and who is in charge of them

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I give the electorate enough credit to be able to separate fact from fiction.

Yellow fiction.

Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble.

Personally, I think the current illegal mini mobs actions have strengthened and united the forces of good in this land which will most likely lead to an ever greater level support for PTP into the future.

Blah, blah, blah..... Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble

How is this clear? From election figures where the Dems didn't participate? From PDRC figures where it will never participate?

Half the PTP votes from 2011. Fact

The most obvious sign that it is clear is the absolute terror the thought of contesting an election instills in the Democrats. If the Dems actually thought they could win they would be demanding an election. They are not because they know what the result would be.

When you are unloved and unsupported like the Dems, it's better to try any and all backdoor, illegal avenues to power cause elections aren't going to give you what you want.

They could come up with 50 policies tomorrow for social and labour rights, taxes, medical bwnfits, education reform that would make them loved by the electorate and they would instantly be dropped by all their backers.

The democrats really are a let down.

[HUAHIN62]

Meaningless article, too thin on data. Another article indicated they had won just 11 million votes, against 15 million last time. Don't forget some PT voters might not have bothered turning out simply knowing their party would win and wouldn't miss their vote. Depending how much popularity the Dems have also lost, PT could well be trumped at the party list level, but will still win the MP race since they dominate in the vast North and NE. They buy off local family politicians. So we might end up with an interesting 'mandate' that is split.

The difference between 11 million and 15 million could be the proportionate votes. You can check the 2011 actual PTP votes which was +- 12 million. The other factor is that 10 000 polling station was shutdown, if there was 400 PTP voters per station it = 4 million votes.

The only way to know is to have a proper election, anything else is speculation.

[gemini81]

Sucks for the Democ rats. They should have participated in the elections.

Well in a way you are right. They would have won.

On the other hand it would have been a back door approval of how the government is run in such a corrupt way.

They recognized that change is necessary and not from just one side. That is why they chose to support the idea of a non elected council to make the changes. Of course the changes would have to go to the voters for approval.

They are waiting for signs of an election, not a highest bidder auction full of corruption. PTP is really running out of steam and options. Well deserved. The bed you make is the one in which you must lie (not those kind of lies Yingluck & chalerm)

[toybits]

More Deja Poo...

[Thaddeus]

The most obvious sign that it is clear is the absolute terror the thought of contesting an election instills in the Democrats. If the Dems actually thought they could win they would be demanding an election. They are not because they know what the result would be.

When your main opponents are working overtime to make themselves look like a bunch of inept fools who only care about their own well-being.

The best thing to do is, let them.

[GeorgeO]

Would that indicate now is the opportune time for an election by the anti government forces, it sure seem like the PM and PTP do not enjoy the political following they had, if you pay attention to the nay sayers.

Yet the anti government folks are still against an election, which they believe they will lose, as they still are the Thai minority!

Cheers

Once again you come on here to spread your lies. The anti-government "folks" have never been against elections.

Those opposing this corrupt caretaker government have simply stated that they will only be involved in the electoral process when it is a clean, fair and transparent process, not a farcical system whereby votes are bought.

[Baerboxer]

Can the mods just close and delete this thread now?

Seriously, this is just a waste of everyone's time.

Sent from my phone ...

I say keep the thread.

Come the next election the Democrats will get crushed (for the seventh time in a row) by PTP's overwhelming popularity.

Why not let the Yellow minority enjoy 5 minutes of popularity (even if it is imaginary)

You think, should there ever be a new election, that PTP would get a majority this time? Would that be anything over 20% then?

First time for everything!

[charmonman]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

I would be surprised if the PTP and UDD had not lost significant membership due to the following:

Amnesty bill
Cheating on legislation
Cheating on voting in the house
Rice scheme
Non payment of farmers
Secession

Whether those voters become disillusioned and either give up voting altogether or become perennial"No" voters will largely depend on how the dems present themselves and their policies at the next election and who is in charge of them

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I give the electorate enough credit to be able to separate fact from fiction.

Yellow fiction.

Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble.

Personally, I think the current illegal mini mobs actions have strengthened and united the forces of good in this land which will most likely lead to an ever greater level support for PTP into the future.

Fact and fiction, eh? I think you might want to consider your own ability to distinguish these regarding, in your words, "the forces of good". Personally, I think the behavior of the government regarding the amnesty bill and the rice scheme should give people enough facts to decide that they are not exactly a force for good, to put it mildly. But of course you are a red supporter, and therefore will completely disregard anyone else's right to have an opinion.