Analysis shows Pheu Thai's popularity waning: academic

[ArfurMaggot]

Does this, "Thammasat University political scientist " also do rocket science?!!

[winstonc]

I would be surprised if the PTP and UDD had not lost significant membership due to the following:

Amnesty bill

Cheating on legislation

Cheating on voting in the house

Rice scheme

Non payment of farmers

Secession

Whether those voters become disillusioned and either give up voting altogether or become perennial"No" voters will largely depend on how the dems present themselves and their policies at the next election and who is in charge of them

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I give the electorate enough credit to be able to separate fact from fiction.

Yellow fiction.

Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble.

Personally, I think the current illegal mini mobs actions have strengthened and united the forces of good in this land which will most likely lead to an ever greater level support for PTP into the future.

wow your one angry troll pipkins...relax you got no say anyway...your just a foreigner..who no little if anything...jog on boy..

[Scamper]

With the former Yingluck administration clinging to the belief that 68 % of Thais either not voting or casting a " no " vote - means a mandate - cooler heads prevail. Even after taking into account those voters in unobstructed districts - like the North and Northeast for example - showed a steady decline in Pheu Thai support. Considering all that has happened in the last two years, and all that has happened to the farmers - Phei Thai's previously rock-solid base - this shift is understandable. It makes one wonder what would have happened if the former Yingluck administration - from day one - had left Thaksin's calls completely unanswered, and went on without him. One's guess is that not only would this administration still be in power, but could possibly have increased it's popularity. Most of Pheu Thai's voters came from those who always vote Pheu Thai. But what people don't realize is that Pheu Thai also received a fairly substantial number of votes from people who were reticent to vote for the party because of Thaksin. When Yingluck went out of her way to assuage their fears, she expanded her coalition considerably. But once she was in office, she didn't honour those promises. And the rest - as they say - is history.

[godden]

if sombody had their hand in my pocket i'd be pi**ed to

[northernjohn]

"...showed that the proportion of invalid ballots in 12 of the 38 provinces in which Pheu Thai candidates won exceeded the nationwide average of 13.3 per cent..."

This shows a decline in PT popularity only if "invalid ballots" translates to "votes for the Opposition and thus were declared invalid".

Otherwise what it really means is Red Shirt territory electorate are a bit more ignorant than the national average as they cast invalid votes (ie, make mistakes on the ballot).

Also make mistakes in who they do vote for.

Then again many of us really figured they were that ignorant. Let's face it what kind of a chance have they been given to get an education with this and all the previous governments. You can bet your bottom baht that the 2,000 schools with out electricity are in Red Shirt country.

[northernjohn]

Sucks for the Democ rats. They should have participated in the elections.

Well in a way you are right. They would have won.

On the other hand it would have been a back door approval of how the government is run in such a corrupt way.

They recognized that change is necessary and not from just one side. That is why they chose to support the idea of a non elected council to make the changes. Of course the changes would have to go to the voters for approval.

They are waiting for signs of an election, not a highest bidder auction full of corruption. PTP is really running out of steam and options. Well deserved. The bed you make is the one in which you must lie (not those kind of lies Yingluck & chalerm)

The only time we will see an election in Thailand is after the election process is reformed. With severe penalties for vote buying and selling. Also strict control over the ballots being secret and if not counted right away guarded in such a way as they would not be available to some one to change them.

This is only one of the changes needed in the constitution.

[rubl]

I would be surprised if the PTP and UDD had not lost significant membership due to the following:

Amnesty bill

Cheating on legislation

Cheating on voting in the house

Rice scheme

Non payment of farmers

Secession

Whether those voters become disillusioned and either give up voting altogether or become perennial"No" voters will largely depend on how the dems present themselves and their policies at the next election and who is in charge of them

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I give the electorate enough credit to be able to separate fact from fiction.

Yellow fiction.

Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble.

Personally, I think the current illegal mini mobs actions have strengthened and united the forces of good in this land which will most likely lead to an ever greater level support for PTP into the future.

Interesting that in comparing political parties one feels a need to add the "street rabble". Many times that is just done to further denigrate the 'others'.

Personally I think the threat by the others has put so much pressure on some that illegal mini mobs operate in the night and shoot at those dastardly anti-government protesters, or lob a grenade or two. To call those violent unknowns the forces of good seems a bit hilarious where it not for the physical harm they do to basicly peaceful protesters who have been targetted from the very day the protest started. That was against an undemocratic government which tried to push through a blanket amnesty bill. A bill which suddenly even covered Thaksin's last two years in/out office AND Yingluck's first two years. Lots of obfuscation, "please go home", police to get you, red-shirt to aim at you, "please go home".

Till now no one has even tried to explain to me why Ms. Yingluck's government needed to be included in the blanket amnesty bill. Do they have that much to hide?

And so, some continue calling anti-government protesters undemocratic, a mob, hired thugs, etc., etc.

[kimamey]

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ManofReason, on 07 Mar 2014 - 08:06, said:

whybother, on 07 Mar 2014 - 07:51, said:

Can the mods just close and delete this thread now?

Seriously, this is just a waste of everyone's time.

Sent from my phone ...

I say keep the thread.

Come the next election the Democrats will get crushed (for the seventh time in a row) by PTP's overwhelming popularity.

Why not let the Yellow minority enjoy 5 minutes of popularity (even if it is imaginary)

And the protests will continue, regardless of who wins , kick both out and appoint a independent parliament. Start again you are both as bad as each other.

The current protest is a last stand, the death rattle of the dying Yellow insurrection. So don't be too concerned, the decade long series of protests are nearly over, the rout is almost complete.

So, there is no need for an "independent" (by which I assume you mean unelected) parliament, the people of the nation are more than capable of electing their own government and will shortly do so.

The problem with that scenario if it's true is you could end up with virtually a one party state. Whether someone else would come along to challenge and win might be down to how much the PTP allow a new opposition to participate. They might act fairly but then again they might not.

[Thai at Heart]

It proves to a statistically significant level that Thais are utterly incapable of analysing data.

http://www.businessinsider.com/crazy-correlations-2011-6?op=1

10 Crazy Correlations Between Unrelated Things

58 percent of people who prefer soft serve ice cream to scooped ice cream like roller coasters, compared with 71 percent of people in general.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/crazy-correlations-2011-6?op=1#ixzz2vHA78jlI

[ManofReason]

The problem with that scenario if it's true is you could end up with virtually a one party state. Whether someone else would come along to challenge and win might be down to how much the PTP allow a new opposition to participate. They might act fairly but then again they might not.

That is entirely correct. The quasi one party rule period is a necessary phase of the growing process the country has to go through to mature into a fully fledged first world open society. The day the Reds get tossed out of power democratically will be one of the greatest in this nations history as it will signify its coming of age. All the coups are doing nothing but delaying this much anticipated day.

[rijb]

I would be surprised if the PTP and UDD had not lost significant membership due to the following:

Amnesty bill

Cheating on legislation

Cheating on voting in the house

Rice scheme

Non payment of farmers

Secession

Whether those voters become disillusioned and either give up voting altogether or become perennial"No" voters will largely depend on how the dems present themselves and their policies at the next election and who is in charge of them

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I give the electorate enough credit to be able to separate fact from fiction.

Yellow fiction.

Whatever the current support levels for PTP, one thing is clear, it still far exceeds that of the Democrats and the PDRC street rabble.

Personally, I think the current illegal mini mobs actions have strengthened and united the forces of good in this land which will most likely lead to an ever greater level support for PTP into the future.

wow your one angry troll pipkins...relax you got no say anyway...your just a foreigner..who no little if anything...jog on boy..

Resorting to name calling indicates that you are the one having an emotional crisis.

[geodesic]

The problem with that scenario if it's true is you could end up with virtually a one party state. Whether someone else would come along to challenge and win might be down to how much the PTP allow a new opposition to participate. They might act fairly but then again they might not.

That is entirely correct. The quasi one party rule period is a necessary phase of the growing process the country has to go through to mature into a fully fledged first world open society. The day the Reds get tossed out of power democratically will be one of the greatest in this nations history as it will signify its coming of age. All the coups are doing nothing but delaying this much anticipated day.

I couldn't disagree more strongly. Unless there are significant changes, the day the reds get voted out (I won't even dignify it by calling it "democratic") simply means that an even worse demagogue than Thaksin has arisen to manipulate and steal from the Thai people.

No, the greatest day in Thai history will be the day that the Thai legal system finally does something to become truly egalitarian, such as allowing criminal trial by jury. It isn't that this system can't be corrupted, we all know it can. But it does make every trial a crapshoot. Sure the wealthy and powerful can buy the best lawyers, but the uncertainty of the trial by jury system works to keep even the wealthy at least slightly in line.

What Thailand needs is not more demagogues, false voting and false democracy, but instead more genuine enforcement of laws that tend to even the playing field somewhat, and keep the elite from believing that they are above the law. Rule of law makes a democracy. Voting is just an accesory after the fact. Once respect for the law is engrained in a society, who is voted in to administer those laws becomes much less important.

The biggest reason people loathe Thaksin is not because he is necessarily more corrupt than anyone, but because he doesn't even pretend to defer to any law or higher authority. Voting alone will never fix what ails Thailand. Only blanket, blind enforcement of the law against everyone has a chance to do that. I only hope that the grotesque amnesty bill finally woke the Thai people up to that.

[Thai at Heart]

The problem with that scenario if it's true is you could end up with virtually a one party state. Whether someone else would come along to challenge and win might be down to how much the PTP allow a new opposition to participate. They might act fairly but then again they might not.

That is entirely correct. The quasi one party rule period is a necessary phase of the growing process the country has to go through to mature into a fully fledged first world open society. The day the Reds get tossed out of power democratically will be one of the greatest in this nations history as it will signify its coming of age. All the coups are doing nothing but delaying this much anticipated day.

I couldn't disagree more strongly. Unless there are significant changes, the day the reds get voted out (I won't even dignify it by calling it "democratic") simply means that an even worse demagogue than Thaksin has arisen to manipulate and steal from the Thai people.

No, the greatest day in Thai history will be the day that the Thai legal system finally does something to become truly egalitarian, such as allowing criminal trial by jury. It isn't that this system can't be corrupted, we all know it can. But it does make every trial a crapshoot. Sure the wealthy and powerful can buy the best lawyers, but the uncertainty of the trial by jury system works to keep even the wealthy at least slightly in line.

What Thailand needs is not more demagogues, false voting and false democracy, but instead more genuine enforcement of laws that tend to even the playing field somewhat, and keep the elite from believing that they are above the law. Rule of law makes a democracy. Voting is just an accesory after the fact. Once respect for the law is engrained in a society, who is voted in to administer those laws becomes much less important.

The biggest reason people loathe Thaksin is not because he is necessarily more corrupt than anyone, but because he doesn't even pretend to defer to any law or higher authority. Voting alone will never fix what ails Thailand. Only blanket, blind enforcement of the law against everyone has a chance to do that. I only hope that the grotesque amnesty bill finally woke the Thai people up to that.

Indeed. This is a change that will have to happen for the judiciary to become truly independent and eglaitarian.

[binjalin]

Can the mods just close and delete this thread now?

Seriously, this is just a waste of everyone's time.

Sent from my phone ...

I say keep the thread.

Come the next election the Democrats will get crushed (for the seventh time in a row) by PTP's overwhelming popularity.

Why not let the Yellow minority enjoy 5 minutes of popularity (even if it is imaginary)

You think, should there ever be a new election, that PTP would get a majority this time? Would that be anything over 20% then?

First time for everything!

huh??? explain

[binjalin]

The problem with that scenario if it's true is you could end up with virtually a one party state. Whether someone else would come along to challenge and win might be down to how much the PTP allow a new opposition to participate. They might act fairly but then again they might not.

That is entirely correct. The quasi one party rule period is a necessary phase of the growing process the country has to go through to mature into a fully fledged first world open society. The day the Reds get tossed out of power democratically will be one of the greatest in this nations history as it will signify its coming of age. All the coups are doing nothing but delaying this much anticipated day.

dream on... the 'greatest' day in this nations history is when the yellow ammart get beaten (by paradigm shift) and true democracy prevails - the reds 'gig' is just reactionary against the 'ruling' elite

[northernjohn]

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ManofReason, on 07 Mar 2014 - 08:06, said:

I say keep the thread.

Come the next election the Democrats will get crushed (for the seventh time in a row) by PTP's overwhelming popularity.

Why not let the Yellow minority enjoy 5 minutes of popularity (even if it is imaginary)

And the protests will continue, regardless of who wins , kick both out and appoint a independent parliament. Start again you are both as bad as each other.

The current protest is a last stand, the death rattle of the dying Yellow insurrection. So don't be too concerned, the decade long series of protests are nearly over, the rout is almost complete.

So, there is no need for an "independent" (by which I assume you mean unelected) parliament, the people of the nation are more than capable of electing their own government and will shortly do so.

The problem with that scenario if it's true is you could end up with virtually a one party state. Whether someone else would come along to challenge and win might be down to how much the PTP allow a new opposition to participate. They might act fairly but then again they might not.

Well I have to agree with you. That being said do you think the PTP would all of a sudden turn honest if so why.

I can see the scene happening if the opposition is Chalerm or some other Thaksin hired hand. Thaksin would then own both sides.

As the situation sits now I am under the understanding that unless the Democrats voted in the last election they can not run for office. If that is the case look forward to a bigger control of the Parliament than the PTP now have.

In my opinion I believe if that was to happen one step out of line and the PTP would either have the Army stepping in or a civil war.

[bigbamboo]

The analysis seems plausible enough.

In the previous election PT beat the Dems by a factor of 4;3......hardly an overwhelming margin. Since then the Dems pulled off an against the odds win in Bangkok and showed their support there at least had increased by several percent. Were that to be repeated nationwide the two parties would have been neck and neck.

And after that we had the PTP implosion with the rice and the amnesty PR disasters which would have weakened PT even further. Had an election taken place then it's by no means certain PT would have won. Then along came Suthep and who really knows what the true support levels are now.