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      Thailand Live Saturday 12 October 2024

Markets to crash: scare mongering or not?


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Secret Wall Street Calendar, Crash Alert System and other excitable junk from second-rate websites whose business model is to put the frighteners on the poor saps who wander in. Great ad on this website: '7 Biblical Truths About Investing Revealed'. Let us pray.....

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Ok so..... Baht up or down?

vs. what currency?

Vs whatever currency they use where he is from! Talk about a stupid question Nam.smile.png

please be lenient Your Honour and hand out a light sentence smile.png

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Sorry I didn't manage to read the whole article. There are a lot of these about though. As SheungWan says put the frighteners on and then try and to get you to subscribe to their newsletter, report or "solution". They usually start off with the "shock" headline, then add credibility with well known guru quotes, and as the article progresses drift further and further from the gurus and more into their spin on secret answers, limited time only etc. I usually lose interest part way thru which is why I didn't finish this one.

What they can be useful for though is asking yourself "what if" and "what would you do if" to see if your investments may have gaps / over dependencies or weaknesses. So no harm in thinking thru the scenarios. Just stay away from the "solutions" they're selling

Cheers

Fletch :)

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I did not read the article but yes, all booms are followed by busts and vice versa.

Timing is another thing altogether.

I also read that downs are more severe than ups in how they drop therefore giving one the ability to profit even more if taking the risk. (shorting or contrary investing or hedging)

After all MY research i conclude something big and major is inevitable, in fact long over due, hope i am wrong.

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I did not read the article but yes, all booms are followed by busts and vice versa.

Timing is another thing altogether.

I also read that downs are more severe than ups in how they drop therefore giving one the ability to profit even more if taking the risk. (shorting or contrary investing or hedging)

After all MY research i conclude something big and major is inevitable, in fact long over due, hope i am wrong.

Of course you are right although I'm sure the more "committed players " will continue to ridicule such suggestion.giggle.gif

I always remember back in 2008/2009 when China pumped such enormous liquidity into their markets after the beginning of the financial crisis and people hailed this as being the world's saviour.rolleyes.gif

Fletchsmile in post number 12 suggests that people should ask "what if" and "what would you do if"

I have a questiom for the perennial bullsermm.gif

What are they going to use this time around to reinvigorate the markets after such bust and if anybody saw Dr Linda Yueh’s presentation on BBC World last weekend about the shadow banking system in China I would say the question is not “what if “ but “when “?

"Shadow banking has reached a very high level. Without any law and supervision, such huge amounts of loans will pose a big threat," he said. "It's so risky and also has caused many crises."

Now the concern is that the whole unstable pyramid is about to come crashing down, bringing the Chinese and perhaps even the global economy with it.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26335304

Edited by midas
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Midas

For me I look at my portfolio from time to time and ask myself could I survive a 40% drop in equities, see what every 1 baht movement vs GBP and USD costs me either way, what would my finances look like if GBP went to 25 or 75 etc. etc. I also look back at my net worth over time and see what the worst shocks were and what the impacts were. What factors caused them. What would the same factors do today. What other different factors could cause similar impacts.

While I wouldn't always like the results, I could live with them.

I also get a fair amount of info on stress tests from work. So get their impacts and ideas too.

As mentioned above booms follow busts and vice versa. So yes the question is usually when not if on both sides...

But then again I do sometimes ask what if a boom doesn't follow :)

I'm not a perennial anything...

Over the years I've also changed my attitude and allocations. As a young single guy starting out I always like equities - and was more or less 100% - and still do like them. But older and with kids, I do now hold some fixed income, more cash, yes and even gold.

Cheers

Fletch :)

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You scratch the surface of banking and wall street and derivatives and central banks and the federal reserve and history and your bullish faith most likely will fade fast. (and that is just to name a few)

The system is rigged, worse than broken, and IMHO designed to fail.

Once again i sincerely hope i am wrong because this <deleted> is going to be painful, very painful for many if/when it comes.

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I did not read the article but yes, all booms are followed by busts and vice versa.

Timing is another thing altogether.

I also read that downs are more severe than ups in how they drop therefore giving one the ability to profit even more if taking the risk. (shorting or contrary investing or hedging)

After all MY research i conclude something big and major is inevitable, in fact long over due, hope i am wrong.

If something is 'inevitable' then hoping for something else is an irrelevancy. Useful as a get-out clause though. I hear this one often now as a coda from the gold bug brigade who pray with all their hearts for the 'big one', whatever their protestations otherwise. All-in.

Edited by SheungWan
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I did not read the article but yes, all booms are followed by busts and vice versa.

Timing is another thing altogether.

I also read that downs are more severe than ups in how they drop therefore giving one the ability to profit even more if taking the risk. (shorting or contrary investing or hedging)

After all MY research i conclude something big and major is inevitable, in fact long over due, hope i am wrong.

If something is 'inevitable' then hoping for something else is an irrelevancy. Useful as a get-out clause though. I hear this one often now as a coda from the gold bug brigade who pray with all their hearts for the 'big one', whatever their protestations otherwise. All-in.

Flogging a dead horse appears to be your forte.

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I wish someone was making book on the frequency of these threads on TV - someone has been predicting financial Armageddon since I joined this board and long beforehand elsewhere. The US is particularly popular with folk who cant wait for the end of the world - fiscal and physical - I guess they are bound to get their wish eventually. I just don't think it will be in the fiscal quarter where I finally turn my back on the life of a wage-slave for something considerably more entertaining ;)

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of course it is not scaremongering. the markets will crash. It is inevitable. when is the question?

the market will crash before Christmas. but we don't know which year.

I'm bullish on a mid-year crash of epic proportions, rivers turning to blood etc. Oh, wait - didn't that already happen ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon

Gotta hate it when the calendar refuses to play ball with our plans. Of course, one doesn't have to hang around waiting for nature to take its course - if its on FB, it has to be true, right ?

On 21 December 2012, the Uritorco in Córdoba, Argentina was closed, as a mass suicide had been proposed on Facebook to take place there.[

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I wish someone was making book on the frequency of these threads on TV - someone has been predicting financial Armageddon since I joined this board and long beforehand elsewhere. The US is particularly popular with folk who cant wait for the end of the world - fiscal and physical - I guess they are bound to get their wish eventually. I just don't think it will be in the fiscal quarter where I finally turn my back on the life of a wage-slave for something considerably more entertaining wink.png

if you are trying to make a point, I don't understand what it is?ermm.gif

It would be apparent even to Blind Freddie that you can't endlessly rely on a financial system which is built on limitless printing of fiat and scattering of credit like confetti that benefits only the 1% and leaves the 99% worse off year after year.

It's not about wishing for Armageddon . It's about wanting these silly bloody practices to end sooner than later so that the markets can be restored to some sanity.

And I wish someone was making book on the frequency of how many times we have heard the word “ recovery “ since 2008cheesy.gif

Edited by midas
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I thought the US Govt nationalised Blind Freddie (and Fannie too) :)

Yet another reason I'm happy to be living in Thailand where the country actually holds reserves accumulated from surpluses, no QE, and the problems in society have very little to do with the financial sector.

If financial Armeggedon does hit the US, Thailand isnt too bad a place to be :)

Cheers

Fletch :)

Sent from my GT-I9152 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

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Insiders Are Bearish

Does That Bode Badly for the Stock Market?

Corporate insiders are more bearish than they have been at least since 1990.

That isn't good news for the stock market, since these insiders—corporate officers and directors—know more about their companies' prospects than the rest of us. You may want to take their pessimism as a signal to ditch some of your stocks or shift into industries in which insiders aren't heavily selling, such as energy, financials and basic industrials.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303546204579435570595883600?cb=logged0.9572089347562358&cb=logged0.7095063592175372

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I wish someone was making book on the frequency of these threads on TV - someone has been predicting financial Armageddon since I joined this board and long beforehand elsewhere. The US is particularly popular with folk who cant wait for the end of the world - fiscal and physical - I guess they are bound to get their wish eventually. I just don't think it will be in the fiscal quarter where I finally turn my back on the life of a wage-slave for something considerably more entertaining wink.png

if you are trying to make a point, I don't understand what it is?ermm.gif

It would be apparent even to Blind Freddie that you can't endlessly rely on a financial system which is built on limitless printing of fiat and scattering of credit like confetti that benefits only the 1% and leaves the 99% worse off year after year.

It's not about wishing for Armageddon . It's about wanting these silly bloody practices to end sooner than later so that the markets can be restored to some sanity.

And I wish someone was making book on the frequency of how many times we have heard the word “ recovery “ since 2008cheesy.gif

Effectively, I think our differences come down to whether you believe the US is run from Washington DC or the headquarters of Goldman-Sachs. Obama had the heads of all the big investment banks in front of him with their heads bowed like naughty schoolboys, and all they got was a slap on the wrist - I think that illustrates who's really running the country.

The silly practices you refer to will continue for as long as the big boys want them to continue, and there isn't a damned thing you and I can do about it. China's ghost cities, burgeoning debt in developing economies, limp consumer demand in the US - the list goes on - it's all grist for the mill and I'll worry about a 'collapse' when it happens. Nothing wrong with keeping a few extra cans of baked beans and some beer handy for emergencies, though ;)

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