Three events on Saturday that could turn the political tide

[webfact]

SPECIAL REPORT
Three events on Saturday that could turn the political tide
ATTAYUTH BOOTSRIPOOM

BANGKOK: -- THIS SATURDAY may turn out to be an important day in the ongoing political crisis. Three events will take place on that day and if good decisions are made, they could provide a hope for the resolution of the problems.

First, the People's Democratic Reform Committee plans its next mass rally in a bid to force Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her caretaker Cabinet to resign. The PDRC organised similar marches in November and December, which prompted the prime minister to dissolve the House of Representatives on December 9.

After more than a month of the PDRC's "Bangkok shutdown" campaign, which began on January 13, its protest sites in Bangkok were repeatedly attacked with heavy weapons. The group later dispersed its rally sites in downtown and moved its protest inside Lumpini Park, citing security reasons.

The PDRC has now focused its activities on holding seminars to prepare a "blueprint" for Thailand's reforms. Its leaders have also become more hopeful of a victory over the caretaker government, with some courts and independent agencies dealing with cases against the prime minister and her Cabinet.

However, supporters of the ruling Pheu Thai Party have expressed dissatisfaction over the actions or verdicts by the courts and independent agencies. The government has also shown no signs of giving up. So, in the PDRC's view, there is a need to hold another mass rally to heighten pressure.

The rally this Saturday also will serve as a gauge of the PDRC's popularity. Throughout this week, its secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban and other leaders have been participating in daily marches to "invite" people supporting national reforms to take part in the mass rally on Saturday. It has yet to be seen whether the number of participants will be as large as the previous ones.

A second key event is that leaders of Pheu Thai's red-shirt supporters plan a "closed-doors meeting" on that day to discuss plans for a mass red-shirt rally in Bangkok on April 5.

Sources said leaders of the red-shirt movement - United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) - would "assess the situation" after looking at the size of the PDRC crowds on Saturday. A small turnout would trigger a big "counterattack" by the UDD.

It will be interesting to see, after their assessment of the situation, whether the UDD leaders will continue with their mass rally on April 5. When the PDRC rallies were sizeable a few months ago, the red-shirt leaders cancelled many of what they termed "mass rallies" of Pheu Thai supporters.

A decision to go ahead with a big red-shirt rally could lead to clashes with the anti-government protesters.

A third event is a meeting of the Democrat Party to decide whether it should contest a new election to be called after the February 2 vote was declared void by the Constitutional Court. The court cited the fact that the election was not held on the same day in the entire country, as required by the Constitution.

The Democrats boycotted the February 2 election. Although the party will not be punished by dissolution if it opts to boycott again, because the previous one is voided, people will remember that the Democrats have refused to contest elections twice.

If the Democrats decide to contest the new election, their supporters within the PDRC crowd are more likely to go to the polls although the PDRC will attempt to disrupt voting again unless there are reforms first.

If good decisions are made by the three parties this Saturday, they will help improve the situation.

A peaceful mass rally by the PDRC will be a win-win outcome for all parties involved. A decision by UDD leaders not to bring a mass red-shirt rally to the capital will help prevent confrontation between both sides. And a decision by the Democrats to contest the new election will help ensure its success.

With "good signals" from the three parties, the government should also join in to find a way out for Thailand. All sides involved must play their part and role in this cooperation. Acting alone is unlikely to lead to success.


-- The Nation 2014-03-26

[leggo]

Until mature men and women take charge of Thai politics no progress will be made and as we have seen so far all around the world that until you get rid of corruption, nepotism and class systems you can never have true democracy. Thailand has a very long way to go.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[baneko]

It will be another disaster! Democrats wont contest the new election. The PDRC rally wont make any difference. I just hope if the red shirts come to Bangkok they are kept away from the PDRC as that could get messy. When the red shirts are beating up monks what else could they do?

I really have no answer to how the situation can be resolved. Army again probably. Lets hope its peaceful.

Sent from my GT-I9300T using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[WhizBang]

With Jatuporn running the UDD, I cannot image the outcome will be benificial to anyone.

[noitom]

The only solution for Thailand is the Thai army. Suthep is a travesty. He should be arrested for sedition and publicly tried. Everything he has said and done is sufficient for a sedition conviction. Thais are fools to play him longer.

[Luk Mhee]

”A second key event is that leaders of Pheu Thai's red-shirt supporters plan a "closed-doors meeting" on that day to discuss plans for a mass red-shirt rally in Bangkok on April 5.”

JUST REMEMBER

1. Do not beat up our monks, they are Buddha’s messengers. We respect them.
2. Do not intimidate or harass our children if they oppose you. We love them.
3. Do not burn our work places. We need to work because we love our families.
4. Do not form gangs and loot the shops.

[expat888]

Someone is dreaming.

We will be lucky if all out war doesn't break out.

[expat888]

These articles from The Nation are starting to make me nauseous.

[kurtgruen]

Would be interesting, if the Democratic Party would decide to participate in the next elections. If people still prefer their corrupt, murderous Thaksin regime, they will get what they deserve.

[binjalin]

”A second key event is that leaders of Pheu Thai's red-shirt supporters plan a "closed-doors meeting" on that day to discuss plans for a mass red-shirt rally in Bangkok on April 5.”

JUST REMEMBER

1. Do not beat up our monks, they are Buddha’s messengers. We respect them.
2. Do not intimidate or harass our children if they oppose you. We love them.
3. Do not burn our work places. We need to work because we love our families.
4. Do not form gangs and loot the shops.

"a meeting of the Democrat Party"

JUST REMEMBER

1. Democracy is to be fought for and honoured. Democracy is for ALL. Not just the rich, elite and educated
2. Do not back PDRC in blocking and harassing voters. This have the RIGHT to vote - RESPECT it
3. Do not run away from your responsibility to YOUR voters. Thailand does not need a fascist 'council' it needs a reasonable 'opposition' it needs ELECTIONS
4. Remember that YOU were in power for 3 years. You did NOTHING for REFORMS stop being hypocrites - build up policies people can vote for and let go of your ammart/elitist roots then you may actually WIN

[binjalin]

These articles from The Nation are starting to make me nauseous.

me too but the 'other' much more reasonable and respected rag won't allow TVF to quote etc. so not TVF's fault but the result is yellow bias everyday. Personally I would not take The Nation if it were free.

[Lupatria]

Until mature men and women take charge of Thai politics no progress will be made and as we have seen so far all around the world that until you get rid of corruption, nepotism and class systems you can never have true democracy. Thailand has a very long way to go.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

the way gets longer by the day as so far they're walking backwards.

[gabruce]

It will be up to the UDD Red Shirts whether there are violent clashes or not. If they plan to demonstrate at the PDRC sites, then there will be a problem. If they stay away, then there will be problem. Of course if the UDD/Red Shirts start violence, beating people, burning buildings, then it may not matter where they demonstrate/rally.

The PDRC also must avoid moving to wherever the UDD a demonstrating.

Escalated violence at this point would definitely be counter-productive.

[gabruce]

”A second key event is that leaders of Pheu Thai's red-shirt supporters plan a "closed-doors meeting" on that day to discuss plans for a mass red-shirt rally in Bangkok on April 5.”

JUST REMEMBER

1. Do not beat up our monks, they are Buddha’s messengers. We respect them.
2. Do not intimidate or harass our children if they oppose you. We love them.
3. Do not burn our work places. We need to work because we love our families.
4. Do not form gangs and loot the shops.

"a meeting of the Democrat Party"

JUST REMEMBER

1. Democracy is to be fought for and honoured. Democracy is for ALL. Not just the rich, elite and educated
2. Do not back PDRC in blocking and harassing voters. This have the RIGHT to vote - RESPECT it
3. Do not run away from your responsibility to YOUR voters. Thailand does not need a fascist 'council' it needs a reasonable 'opposition' it needs ELECTIONS
4. Remember that YOU were in power for 3 years. You did NOTHING for REFORMS stop being hypocrites - build up policies people can vote for and let go of your ammart/elitist roots then you may actually WIN

and remember, ballots must be secret and private. CCTV watching you vote is a no-no. Same for having someone watch what you check, or checking your ballot. You cannot have your neighbours forcing you to vote one way. It's totally fine to say "sure I voted for this party/person" and then do the opposite. In fact, if you offer me 500 baht to vote for you and I vote for someone else, too bad for you. All the other usual things about avoiding ballot box stuffing, preventing people from voting etc. It's not useful to only single out one behaviour. Maybe that is the reform that is needed?

[h90]

Until mature men and women take charge of Thai politics no progress will be made and as we have seen so far all around the world that until you get rid of corruption, nepotism and class systems you can never have true democracy. Thailand has a very long way to go.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

The problem is not that they are immature, what would mean they aren't able to understand what they do.

The problem is that they are extreme corrupt....they understand very well what they are doing.

[binjalin]

”A second key event is that leaders of Pheu Thai's red-shirt supporters plan a "closed-doors meeting" on that day to discuss plans for a mass red-shirt rally in Bangkok on April 5.”

JUST REMEMBER

1. Do not beat up our monks, they are Buddha’s messengers. We respect them.
2. Do not intimidate or harass our children if they oppose you. We love them.
3. Do not burn our work places. We need to work because we love our families.
4. Do not form gangs and loot the shops.

"a meeting of the Democrat Party"

JUST REMEMBER

1. Democracy is to be fought for and honoured. Democracy is for ALL. Not just the rich, elite and educated
2. Do not back PDRC in blocking and harassing voters. This have the RIGHT to vote - RESPECT it
3. Do not run away from your responsibility to YOUR voters. Thailand does not need a fascist 'council' it needs a reasonable 'opposition' it needs ELECTIONS
4. Remember that YOU were in power for 3 years. You did NOTHING for REFORMS stop being hypocrites - build up policies people can vote for and let go of your ammart/elitist roots then you may actually WIN

and remember, ballots must be secret and private. CCTV watching you vote is a no-no. Same for having someone watch what you check, or checking your ballot. You cannot have your neighbours forcing you to vote one way. It's totally fine to say "sure I voted for this party/person" and then do the opposite. In fact, if you offer me 500 baht to vote for you and I vote for someone else, too bad for you. All the other usual things about avoiding ballot box stuffing, preventing people from voting etc. It's not useful to only single out one behaviour. Maybe that is the reform that is needed?

not against any of that but as you know even the Dems admit that 'vote buying' is a non-issue and they stated as much

do people get payments? yes on both sides - the people I know take the money and vote for who they want! no one watching, no one filming

anyway, yes, free voting is a must

until the Dems stop being the mouthpiece for the elite they will NEVER win - not because people love PTP but because Thais have woken up to this 'vote for Dems we know best we are educated' and they simply will not tolerate it anymore

where's the REAL opposition party with no affiliations???

[Mentors]

The Thais alone can not handle this crisis. Even the 'invisible hands' are divided. Thailand needs help from outside. They have to realise this sooner or later. I guess much later...

[binjalin]

The Thais alone can not handle this crisis. Even the 'invisible hands' are divided. Thailand needs help from outside. They have to realise this sooner or later. I guess much later...

I agree... but they have refused outside help and monitors - to have an election run by 'outsiders' maybe just what is needed to ensure all sides respect the outcome

but when asked about Election Monitors:

Suthep: "I don't respect 'farangs'. We

do not have to surrender to them"

[JesseFrank]

I would have thought that the most importantevent that could turn the political tide, is not on Saturday but rather the day before.

Edited March 27, 2014 by JesseFrank

[rickirs]

So is this Saturday Suthep's Final Push and, if by the following Moday Yingluck is still the Interim PM, Suthep is finished? Realistically, based on past events and PTP's political planning scheduled on the same Saturday, Suthep will not have his Final Push accomplished although he will claim victory in a popularity contest. We will hear from Suthep again on Sunday that he will have a Final Push on April 5th with hopes that a violent and bloody confrontation between the PDRC and PTP demonstrators will cause the military to declare marial law and take over the government. Failing a Final Push on April 5th, Suthep will then plan the Final Push at the next scheduled election, in ad infinitum.

Meanwhile, isn't Suthep scheduled (again) to appear in court by end of March to respond to murder allegations? No doubt he will not voluntarily appear as he is involved in his Final Push and will request another extension. And no doubt he will be granted another extension because of a sympathetic court.

[razer]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

”A second key event is that leaders of Pheu Thai's red-shirt supporters plan a "closed-doors meeting" on that day to discuss plans for a mass red-shirt rally in Bangkok on April 5.”

JUST REMEMBER

1. Do not beat up our monks, they are Buddha’s messengers. We respect them.
2. Do not intimidate or harass our children if they oppose you. We love them.
3. Do not burn our work places. We need to work because we love our families.
4. Do not form gangs and loot the shops.

5. Don't kill children with grenades.

[Robby nz]

The only solution for Thailand is the Thai army. Suthep is a travesty. He should be arrested for sedition and publicly tried. Everything he has said and done is sufficient for a sedition conviction. Thais are fools to play him longer.

Keep pushing Thaksins agenda for a coup and civil war.

Wont work though the army isn't buying into it and PT will still be investigated for all their illegal acts and corruption.

[rreddin]

These articles from The Nation are starting to make me nauseous.

me too but the 'other' much more reasonable and respected rag won't allow TVF to quote etc. so not TVF's fault but the result is yellow bias everyday. Personally I would not take The Nation if it were free.

You have hit the nail on the head. Not the mods fault. They can only work with the material they are allowed to use, but it does give a definite bias in the items reported and that influences the tone of this news forum. Of course, what you refer to as a "the 'other' much more reasonable and respected rag" is widely quoted and linked to on other forums.

[sweatalot]

The Thais alone can not handle this crisis. Even the 'invisible hands' are divided. Thailand needs help from outside. They have to realise this sooner or later. I guess much later...

I agree... but they have refused outside help and monitors - to have an election run by 'outsiders' maybe just what is needed to ensure all sides respect the outcome

but when asked about Election Monitors:

Suthep: "I don't respect 'farangs'. We

do not have to surrender to them"

Suthep: "I don't respect 'farangs'. We

do not have to surrender to them"

Can you please give me the the source where this comes from (whole article or speech transcript)?

I really want to know, because it can help me to improve my judgement. I am not asking in order to make you wrong.

Thank you very much

[sweatalot]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

”A second key event is that leaders of Pheu Thai's red-shirt supporters plan a "closed-doors meeting" on that day to discuss plans for a mass red-shirt rally in Bangkok on April 5.”

JUST REMEMBER

1. Do not beat up our monks, they are Buddha’s messengers. We respect them.
2. Do not intimidate or harass our children if they oppose you. We love them.
3. Do not burn our work places. We need to work because we love our families.
4. Do not form gangs and loot the shops.

5. Don't kill children with grenades.

6. Do not use grenades and do not even own them

[northernjohn]

These articles from The Nation are starting to make me nauseous.

me too but the 'other' much more reasonable and respected rag won't allow TVF to quote etc. so not TVF's fault but the result is yellow bias everyday. Personally I would not take The Nation if it were free.

Yet you really enjoy commenting on it's articles.

[binjalin]

The Thais alone can not handle this crisis. Even the 'invisible hands' are divided. Thailand needs help from outside. They have to realise this sooner or later. I guess much later...

I agree... but they have refused outside help and monitors - to have an election run by 'outsiders' maybe just what is needed to ensure all sides respect the outcome

but when asked about Election Monitors:

Suthep: "I don't respect 'farangs'. We

do not have to surrender to them"

Suthep: "I don't respect 'farangs'. We

do not have to surrender to them"

Can you please give me the the source where this comes from (whole article or speech transcript)?

I really want to know, because it can help me to improve my judgement. I am not asking in order to make you wrong.

Thank you very much

sure:

BANGKOK, March 24, 2011 (AFP) - Thailand on Thursday dismissed suggestions that foreign observers were needed to monitor its upcoming election, with the deputy prime minister saying he does "not respect" Westerners.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/454183-thailand-rejects-foreign-election-monitors/

Edited March 27, 2014 by binjalin

[expat888]

These articles from The Nation are starting to make me nauseous.

me too but the 'other' much more reasonable and respected rag won't allow TVF to quote etc. so not TVF's fault but the result is yellow bias everyday. Personally I would not take The Nation if it were free.

Yet you really enjoy commenting on it's articles.

Boredom

[binjalin]

These articles from The Nation are starting to make me nauseous.

me too but the 'other' much more reasonable and respected rag won't allow TVF to quote etc. so not TVF's fault but the result is yellow bias everyday. Personally I would not take The Nation if it were free.

Yet you really enjoy commenting on it's articles.

no choice... that's the point oh wise one

[bigbamboo]

The Thais alone can not handle this crisis. Even the 'invisible hands' are divided. Thailand needs help from outside. They have to realise this sooner or later. I guess much later...

I agree... but they have refused outside help and monitors - to have an election run by 'outsiders' maybe just what is needed to ensure all sides respect the outcome

but when asked about Election Monitors:

Suthep: "I don't respect 'farangs'. We

do not have to surrender to them"

Suthep: "I don't respect 'farangs'. We

do not have to surrender to them"

Can you please give me the the source where this comes from (whole article or speech transcript)?

I really want to know, because it can help me to improve my judgement. I am not asking in order to make you wrong.

Thank you very much

The de facto leaders of both sides, Suthep and Thaksin, have at different times expressed their lack of respect for foreigners.

That's fair enough.

There aren't too many foreigners around who respect these two dictators either.