Thailand's GDP to shrink further to 1.6 percent from 2.4 percent



BANGKOK: -- Thailand’s gross domestic product is expected to decline further to 1.6 percent from 2.4 percent largely due to continuing political instability, according to the Economic and Business Research Centre of the Siam Commercial Bank.

Mrs Suthapa Amornvivat, chief economist of the research centre, said today that the anticipated drop in economic growth rate by .8 percentage point would mean the missing of 800 billion baht from the economy.

She said that the ongoing political crisis has made it impossible for a functional government to be formed in the third quarter of the year as earlier speculated. Now it appears that a new government may come into the office at the end of the year, she added.

Export growth, meanwhile, is likely to drop to 4 percent from 5 percent, said Mrs Suthapa, adding that political crisis has impacted directly and indirectly on government’s investment spending which is expected to contract by 6.6 percent.

During the first quarter of the year, export growth registered minus 1 percent growth rate due to substantial drop in the amount and value of such export items as rubber, seafood and agricultural products.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/thailands-gdp-shrink-1-6-percent-2-4-percent/

-- Thai PBS 2014-04-29

There's the writing on the wall .......

There's the writing on the wall .......

Not really, because the economy is still growing.

There's the writing on the wall .......

More like "mirror, mirror on the wall."

Much too early to go all Chicken Little on us, big boy.

So much goalpost moving, I forget whether 1.6 was my recent prediction, or is lower than that. Wonder what the BoT and the academics will say.

Probably the best assessment is to compare with the other ASEAN countries' performance. eg Malaysian GDP in 2013 also dropped in 2013, but nowhere near as low as Thailand's. Mlaysian GDP above 4% compared to Thailand's. If Thai GDP projected to be at a growth rate less than half of the others then not good at all.