Abhisit worries the political situation could escalate into a coup

[BlueNoseCodger]

Abhisit worries it might become a coup -- what rubbish.

Abhisit HOPES it becomes a coup.

They need it. There best chance at dominance was back in January when they had 20 stages and nobody dared speak because they didn't know how others felt and feared popcorn.

That fell away, and the recent clearing of the Local Government Office was basically a rout. Which is why the rapid Judicial coup attempts. You sometimes read about their guards sob stories. 7 months on minimum wage away from their families, is not fun. Suthep is up in some five-star fancy hotel, and they're in tents, it's not fair. So they're not exactly a fighting force.

They'll get their nearest thing to a chance today I think, with the army letting them use the Prime Ministers office in Government House for a press conference. It's a gross violation of their duty to protect government house from the protestors, to then be protecting government house for protestors. So that is probably about as close as they'd dare take it without going for the full coup.

He gets to present himself as a sort of Prime Minister. The unelected without royal ascent kind of Prime Minister. Maybe the army will let him use their soldiers as backdrop too. We'll see.

Watch the visuals, his PR guys will carefully arrange everything, maybe dress him up to look Prime Ministerial, does he have a uniform? Interesting to see if they dress him in uniform or in business suit.

Surachai (the pretend Senate Speaker), could meet him for a bit of 'this is me acting as PM in my Prime Ministerial office', footage.

With his guards threatening Channel 3,5,7,11, demanding they air his messages and not the government, and the stabbing outside Channel 5 yesterday, the seizing of the toll road, he thinks he can then dominate.

You can see how the army is playing it as close the knuckle as it can get by letting him use the Prime Ministers office.

So he does his thing, and we're supposed to treat him then as if he was PM, and Surachai said on Saturday (Channel 3) that they would put in a new PM, and fix the legal part afterwards.

I can't help think that Abhisit is the cause of all this. In the US the Republicans dominate, and yet are the party of the rich elite. Yet he is so pathetic that he can't get elected. And because he's chosen by cronyism, his party can't eject him and choose someone who is electable. So they go to all these lengths to seize power from the voters, because they can't seize power from their own weak PM candidate!

Edited May 12, 2014 by BlueNoseCodger

[BlueNoseCodger]

Bo Issara's just been on Channel 3 saying (my rough translation), that if they want to end this quickly they can destroy his stage, but be warned the army will act.

So in essence he's trying to echo Abhisit's veiled threats that they'll have a military coup.

[binjalin]

Might have been a choice of words (or bad reporting), but Abhisit's offer did seem to give the PDRC a rather prominent place in the reform making process, at the same time remaining unclear as to the identity of interim government and method of formation. To date, there is not even a real blue print of what the much talked about reforms include. And the PDRC been at it for months now....

Regardless of Abhisit not being a neutral mediator, or non-partisan, his offer was actually rejected by Suthep first...

The TVF Red Heads dismissed Abhisit's reform framework out of hand. But if one takes the time to study and think about it, and actually listen to what Abhisit says about it, one might find it's a little more nuanced than they were led to believe.

Without regard to what the Reds would have you believe, Abhisit isn't stupid; there's a very good reason why PTP run from any Abhisit debate. Yingluck may look cute in her braces and boots, but there is no way she can debate a juggernaut like Abhisit and not end up looking like a monkey.

Abhisit understands that the framework does not need to be one that everybody will like; he knows that the framework only needs to be one that those who want to make positive improvements to the country can work with.

And Abhisit said clearly and distinctly that no one will get all that they want.

So what do we have?

Abhisit knows that PTP are afraid of Suthep, so Suthep is included in the framework. Now Abhisit has something with which to bargain.

Abhisit knows that Suthep wants what Suthep wants, so he includes a referendum through which the reforms must pass. Anything other than rubber-stamping Suthep's reforms drives him to the center, and Suthep most likely won't like that.

Suthep bails? No problem, it just puts more pressure on those in PTP that still have functioning brain cells.

And don't forget about the smaller parties; there are many reasons why they are considering participating in the framework.

For sure Thaksin doesn't want to have anything to do with the framework because it would certainly be the end of his game. But if PTP has anything going for it at all, there's a good chance of some cool heads that are interested in a better tomorrow.

I don't think Abhisit isn't smart or does not understand the political situation. I'm sure he does.

I do doubt his sincerity (comes with being a politician) and his commitment to play on level playing ground.

His plan got something for everyone, that's right. It also requires everyone to make some serious concessions, which so far far, are not in the cards. It is even hard to say if the offer is still of any relevance after the recent legal proceedings and near future events.

You say that Suthep bailing out puts more pressure on reasonable elements within the PTP - who might those be?

Not baiting, just really doesn't seem like anyone there is willing to deal or is in a position to make binding decisions.

You're right, but a lot depends on how things roll out next week. I believe depending on the Senate's actions (or lack thereof) Abhisit's reform framework could gain more traction. Abhisit said he would not entertain changes to his framework, but he's a politician and suspect he's willing to negotiate.

The old guard at PTP can only do it Thaksin's way. Members willing to negotiate might be the less seasoned members that have been at the trough for a shorter time. And you're right again that they may not be in a position to make commitments, which makes me think that there is a chance of fracturing the party. But as a party and not just Thaksin's toadies, I do think it's their best choice for the future; after all, if they don't join the discussions, they w

"Abhisit said he would not entertain changes to his framework,"

you can't see that such arrogance is part of the problem? here is a second rate politician who did not contest the elections demanding adherence to his "framework" which includes the UNELECTED PDRC?

[Piichai]

Well, the lot might be scraped anyway if Abhisit's professed worries will become a reality.

Otherwise, the issues are indeed who is willing and who is able to negotiate.

I do not expect any immediate dissent in PTP ranks, though.

You could very well be right. But I always hope for the best.

[Piichai]

There was no election before they wrote US Constitution and that worked out okay.

Would you argue nepotism is a good thing? Of course not. So you recognize that reforms are needed. Yet you seem to argue that the very party that benefits most from a poorly crafted constitution should be responsible for improving it. If that's not putting the foxes in charge of the henhouse, I don't know what is.

Thailand is in uncharted territory. All things considered, one shouldn't be surprised if Thailand ends up with an appointed Caretaker government as they push for reforms.

Oh!yea i forgot- 'reforms'.. you mean like an amendment to the constitution that would increase certain penalties? yea well that has to be done through the parliament after the election. .it doesn't just happen from sutheps council and magically appear in the law, and even if the courts keep sacking these guys on bogus charges, that doesn't turn that seat over to the opposition, another PT deputy replaces him, the courts cannot change the balance of power in the parliament using this tactic, and it's doubtful that the nacc will try ti impeach that many MPs.

It's a 5-ban today. Could be more after reforms. And considering the Senate vote was 96 to 51 for Surachai, it doesn't look good for Yingluck. And if it doesn't go well for Yingluck, it doesn't look good for the rest of PTP. After those 300 are gone, who's left?

PTP was invited to join the talks. If the party fractures and the smaller parties join in, where does that leave what's left of PTP?

And haven't you noticed that only the Reds are talking about Suthep anymore?

Right Piichai! Yingluck and Abhisit debate and then she's gonna look stupid. OK fine, Abhisit runs in the election and in return he will get to debate Yingluck live on TV, then everyone will see how stupid she is and vote for him right?

WRONG! In fact abhisit will not agree to that solution because then he would have to support an election instead of trying to push through a dictatorship labled "reform"

[Piichai]

"Abhisit said he would not entertain changes to his framework,"

you can't see that such arrogance is part of the problem? here is a second rate politician who did not contest the elections demanding adherence to his "framework" which includes the UNELECTED PDRC?

Do you think Abhisit received his reform framework carved in stone from a burning bush?

His position conveniently creates another bargaining chip for him. Abhisit can accept changes and be seen as a hero doing what is best for Thailand.

[h90]

Abhisit worries it might become a coup -- what rubbish.

Abhisit HOPES it becomes a coup.

No he would be away from the feeding trough..... It wouldn't help him.

[h90]

Abhisit has already said he wouldn't run in the election after reforms.

What's stopping PTP from entering discussions; Suthep already bailed on the framework.

If PTP doesn't join the discussion, there's a good chance the country will carry on without them. That could indeed cause a fracture within the party between those loyal to Thaksin, and those thinking about tomorrow.

You can ignore it all you want, but PTP is in a very bad place. Not only is their power-base crumbling, there is party dissolution and 5-year bans for 300 or so of their best and brightest looming large in the very near future.

The absolutely best choice and best chance for PTP right now is to work with Abhisit's framework.

Right Piichai! Yingluck and Abhisit debate and then she's gonna look stupid. OK fine, Abhisit runs in the election and in return he will get to debate Yingluck live on TV, then everyone will see how stupid she is and vote for him right?

WRONG! In fact abhisit will not agree to that solution because then he would have to support an election instead of trying to push through a dictatorship labled "reform"

What is stopping PTP?

Reforms that stop vote buying and the PTP wouldn't win anymore.

Reforms that stop or reduce corruption and there is no purpose for winning elections anymore.

It would destroy their income.

But with the ban of the 300, the 100+ that were banned before and are now free again could fill the positions. It would be kind of time machines 2014--->2005

[pkspeaker]

There is no 'vote-buying' OR there is so little of it that it does not affect the PTs landslide victory, the 'vote-buying' rouse has been exposed as a farce since this crises began, there is no more vote buying or vote buying via 'populist policies' than there is in any other democracy.. it's just another insult thrown at the rural population, that they are so devoid of ethics that they will sell their vote for 100 baht..

and no i do not think 'reforms' are needed because the coup in 2006 was supposed to 'reform' the system, so was Abhists 'appointed' premiership, and more reforms needed will need to go through parliament, not dictatorially.

[phanangpete]

The dems need a new leader.

Thats all very well, but name one other who is educated and ill agree with you .

[binjalin]

"Abhisit said he would not entertain changes to his framework,"

you can't see that such arrogance is part of the problem? here is a second rate politician who did not contest the elections demanding adherence to his "framework" which includes the UNELECTED PDRC?

Do you think Abhisit received his reform framework carved in stone from a burning bush?

His position conveniently creates another bargaining chip for him. Abhisit can accept changes and be seen as a hero doing what is best for Thailand.

Abhisit will never be accepted by the majority of Thais because of his slavish adherence to the ammart elite

Thailand needs a leader who is willing to reform lese majeste, corruption and the judiciary - it doesn't have one - but it sure ain't Abhisit who had the opportunity to SHINE but chose to remain DULL

[Piichai]

"Abhisit said he would not entertain changes to his framework,"

you can't see that such arrogance is part of the problem? here is a second rate politician who did not contest the elections demanding adherence to his "framework" which includes the UNELECTED PDRC?

Do you think Abhisit received his reform framework carved in stone from a burning bush?

His position conveniently creates another bargaining chip for him. Abhisit can accept changes and be seen as a hero doing what is best for Thailand.

Abhisit will never be accepted by the majority of Thais because of his slavish adherence to the ammart elite

Thailand needs a leader who is willing to reform lese majeste, corruption and the judiciary - it doesn't have one - but it sure ain't Abhisit who had the opportunity to SHINE but chose to remain DULL

He doesn't need to be. He only needs to be accepted by the majority of MPs as he was just a few years ago.

Interesting that you didn't mention nepotism as one of the much needed reforms.

Lese majeste is really a red herring (no pun intended) and a non-starter. We all know why the communists (Red Shirts) want to push that through, but people (such as Yingluck) who swore to protect and uphold the monarchy don't appear to be so keen. Do you have any quotes from Yingluck saying she wants to do away with lese majeste? Considering what she *has* said, it's almost like the Shins are using the Reds. Hmmm...

And reforming the judiciary is also questionable. Had Yingluck not broken the law, she wouldn't have had problems.

I'm not so sure the judiciary is perfect, but on the list of things that need sorting out, it's hardly at the top of the list.

Requiring transparency and eliminating nepotism are a lot more important!

[Old Man River]

I really enjoy Abhisit's comments these days. I think to myself,'what is the most obvious comment that can be made' and Abhisit doesn't fail. This not a leader, this is a follower.

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