Thai army holds key to unlocking deadly impasse

[webfact]

Analysis
Thai army holds key to unlocking deadly impasse
by Daniel ROOK

BANGKOK, May 21, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand's army chief could be lining up the pieces for an end-game to a deadly political crisis, but risks raising the stakes even higher given the threat of a violent backlash from government supporters, experts say.

Prospects for an end to the nearly seven-month crisis could hinge on talks between the kingdom's main political rivals due to be hosted Wednesday by General Prayut Chan-O-Cha, a day after he imposed martial law.

If the military can succeed in brokering a compromise then Thailand might be able to claw itself out of the turmoil, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

But "this is a very dangerous role the army is playing", he added.

"If they don't do it well, we could see an outright military coup and protests against the military, and all kinds of worst-case scenarios in Thailand."

The enfeebled government has called for fresh elections on August 3.

But the opposition wants vaguely defined anti-corruption reforms first and has vowed to stay on the streets until it has ended the long-standing political dominance of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

- 'Creeping coup' -

Despite strenuous denials by the military that the invocation of century-old legislation on Tuesday was tantamount to a coup, observers said the army chief is now firmly in control.

"The martial law act of 1914 is beginning to illuminate a shadowy route toward much-enhanced power by the iron heel of the army," said Paul Chambers, director of research at the Institute of Southeast Asian Affairs at Chiang Mai University.

He described it as a "creeping coup, a pre-coup, a half-way coup" that might lead to the installation of an arch-royalist prime minister in the kingdom, which has been without a fully functioning government since December.

The intervention of the generals took security control out of the hands of the government, reinforcing its image as largely powerless following the recent dismissal of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra -- Thaksin's sister -- in a controversial court ruling.

Soon after martial law was declared, the government's opponents stepped up their push to invoke a vaguely worded clause in the constitution to remove caretaker Prime Minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan and appoint a new leader.
So far Niwattumrong, like Yingluck, has resisted pressure to step down.

- 'Taking power' -

A group of unelected lawmakers in the upper house of parliament, the Senate, said they would ask the Constitutional Court to rule whether the cabinet broke the law by declaring a state of emergency earlier in the crisis.

The lawmakers argue that the move was for the benefit of the ruling party.

If the court rules against the government it could lead to its removal from office.

"I would not be surprised if the next step is a military coup or the military taking charge with the advice of the Senate and leading to the appointment of a new prime minister," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, associate professor at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University in Japan.

"But certainly the military is trying to take power from the government."

"Red Shirt" supporters of Yingluck and her brother Thaksin, who was toppled as premier in a 2006 coup, have warned the country could descend into civil war if power is handed to an unelected leader.

Some experts believe that a struggle is unfolding to decide who will run the country when the more than six-decade reign of revered but ailing 86-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej eventually ends.

The succession is a taboo topic in Thailand and its discussion is restricted by harsh royal defamation laws.

- Fears of backlash -

The last coup eight years ago unleashed a cycle of political violence and rival street protests that have left deep fault lines running through the Southeast Asian nation.

The imposition of martial law could be aimed at warding off any backlash by the Red Shirts, whose mass rallies against the previous government in 2010 ended in a bloody military crackdown that left dozens of people dead, experts said.

"The declaration of martial law is likely designed to pre-empt any Red Shirt uprising in the capital following the Senate's nomination of a new government, which is likely in the next weeks," said Alecia Quah, senior analyst at consultancy IHS Country Risk.

"Given the heavy army presence in Bangkok, Red Shirt protesters are unlikely to turn violent or confront opposition protesters, as the military would swiftly suppress this," she added.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-05-21

[xminator]

Its still legal. The murky side of this is IF they block elections. Start making amends to the constitution calling it reform and do another 2007-constitution refferendum with one choice to make it look legal and cover any charges against themselfs in the followup. They have to be carefull tough, the wrong change could open up for charges against the 2006 coup makers, and I doubt many of them are ready to do time or give up the assets and positions they gained then.

[Lancelot]

Excellent report. Things are far from being resolved...

[Asiantravel]

This is a perfect opportunity for the army to make everyone sit down together for an extended period of time. The opposition can be made to submit their full " wish list " (because no one has actually seen this to date )

regarding every reform they would like to see for everyone to study and the army can then force them to attend meetings daily if necessary, to negotiate a package.

If the proposed election is 3 August that well over 2 months and if there's nothing really nasty or controversial in the proposed reforms they can be done and dusted within a few weeks surely? Why is an interim government needed and why does anyone need to stretch this out for longer than necessary?

This isn't rocket science is it?

Then every side wins

[Scamper]

" The declaration of martial law is likely designed to pre-empt any Red Shirt uprising in the capital following the Senate's nomination of a new government, which is likely in the next weeks," said Alecia Quah, senior analyst at consultancy IHS Country Risk. "Given the heavy army presence in Bangkok, Red Shirt protesters are unlikely to turn violent or confront opposition protesters, as the military would swiftly suppress this," she added. "

This is the most logical assessment of the situation. Although Prayuth is genuinely trying to get the parties to reach some kind of consensus or compromise - and just by getting them in the same room together he has been shown to be more successful than either Yingluck or Niwattumrong in the last three years combined - but it is fails, then this seems the most likely outcome.

[KevinB]

Generals should stay in their barracks and the People should be allowed to Vote - if they want to elect the Shiniwattas and their cronies - it's their choice and they seem to have made it time and time and time again for the last 15 years. The 2006 coup didn't stop it and I don't think this so called "not a coup" now is going to change the will of the majority of the people. Thais now have more information and the abilities to communicate in their cell phones than they ever had in the past. No one is ever going to pull the wool over their eyes again - they know which party looks after their interests and they will decide soon enough if the army is failing to respect them as citizens of this Kingdom. The only people who seem to find difficulty with this unalienable truth - that the People rule - is the Bangkok elite and a whole lot of members of Thaivisa - some of who seem to just love the fact that, as the article says above - the army, if they don't handle this correctly are heading on a very dangerous path. They are happy happy happy that the army in going to try again to get rid of the Shin dynasty. Pity the world has moved on and finds the answer is in elections not well intentioned military coups.

[Strangebrew]

Well they could line up both sides shoot them and start over works for me, That's Thainess right? Oh and deny doing it now that's Thainess

[VegasVic]

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Generals should stay in their barracks and the People should be allowed to Vote - if they want to elect the Shiniwattas and their cronies - it's their choice and they seem to have made it time and time and time again for the last 15 years. The 2006 coup didn't stop it and I don't think this so called "not a coup" now is going to change the will of the majority of the people. Thais now have more information and the abilities to communicate in their cell phones than they ever had in the past. No one is ever going to pull the wool over their eyes again - they know which party looks after their interests and they will decide soon enough if the army is failing to respect them as citizens of this Kingdom. The only people who seem to find difficulty with this unalienable truth - that the People rule - is the Bangkok elite and a whole lot of members of Thaivisa - some of who seem to just love the fact that, as the article says above - the army, if they don't handle this correctly are heading on a very dangerous path. They are happy happy happy that the army in going to try again to get rid of the Shin dynasty. Pity the world has moved on and finds the answer is in elections not well intentioned military coups.

Well said Kevin, it is refreshing to see some truthful and logical thinking here on thaivisa, and the truth is that the only way suthep and his crew could ever come to power is behind the tanks of the Thai army ASEAN's eyes and the worlds eyes are on Thailand right now, should the military try and amend the constitution unilaterally to try and sneak abhisit and suthep in the back door then all hell will break loose Like you said the Thai people have never been better informed, between satellite TV, the internet and cell phones even the most remote parts of the kingdom are clued in. If the situation does get ugly, then I really feel sad that HRH has lived long enough to see it all unravel

[casualbiker]

Generals should stay in their barracks and the People should be allowed to Vote - if they want to elect the Shiniwattas and their cronies - it's their choice and they seem to have made it time and time and time again for the last 15 years. The 2006 coup didn't stop it and I don't think this so called "not a coup" now is going to change the will of the majority of the people. Thais now have more information and the abilities to communicate in their cell phones than they ever had in the past. No one is ever going to pull the wool over their eyes again - they know which party looks after their interests and they will decide soon enough if the army is failing to respect them as citizens of this Kingdom. The only people who seem to find difficulty with this unalienable truth - that the People rule - is the Bangkok elite and a whole lot of members of Thaivisa - some of who seem to just love the fact that, as the article says above - the army, if they don't handle this correctly are heading on a very dangerous path. They are happy happy happy that the army in going to try again to get rid of the Shin dynasty. Pity the world has moved on and finds the answer is in elections not well intentioned military coups.

The rest of the world has moved on.. you mean the First world as against the Third world .. Thailand is a developing nation about 20 or so years behind .. democracy in Thailand is also developing .. and because this is Thailand it will develop in a Thai style.

The Army stepping in has brought the different parties together. Hopefully they will compromise and resolve their differences . We can but hope!

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