World Bank sees dimmer Thai Economic

[Emptyset]

That said, do you think that coups are good GDP growth. Also bear in mind that the junta is busy carving up spending plans from PTP, so that bit is down, tourism numbers are supposedly down, so that's down, and consumers are reportedly not spending or are at least up the wazoo with debt.

So, all in a its not a crazy prediction.

If you believe that PTP's economic-plans were good, which many (including myself) don't, then the junta's interruption of them would be a negative.

But Yingluck inherited a reasonably-growing economy, which growth since then has declined, and was borrowing to fund things like the free-laptops, rice-scam & 50-year infrastructure-gravytrain.

If the junta can impose a little discipline, and ensure slightly-more-productive investment, the trend set by PTP & Dear Leader's economic-genius might be reversed ?

Having said which, no way is Thailand ready for ASEAN, and the next few years would have been rocky, whoever was in charge, all IMO of course.

As you can see, growth was heading back in the right direction before the political crisis and the resulting house dissolutin which meant govt weren't able to spend any money. I don't think PT were particularly great on the economy either, but all those schemes you mentioned (obviously the court dropped the infrastracture bill) were no doubt boosting GDP. So cutting them or spending less money will surely lower growth rates. Maybe the junta will prove better able to spend the money. But I recall people saying things like that in 2006, but Surayud's govt managed to run up a budget deficit of 150 billion despite cutting spending on some schemes. So we shall see

[Thai at Heart]

Actually that was a Brit who sold the fake bomb detectors and the British government and the Ministry of Defense supported him!

The Economy: economists are famous at getting it wrong, it's not an exact science and is only based on probability, famously, the IMF this week has had to publicly grovel to the UK PM for getting its forecast wrong. So just because it's the World Bank who is saying it, doesn't make it true.

My guess: I feel that the current coup is bringing some much needed change that is very positive, if that change continues the end product could be very attractive, I think Thailand will surprise to the upside.

That said, do you think that coups are good GDP growth. Also bear in mind that the junta is busy carving up spending plans from PTP, so that bit is down, tourism numbers are supposedly down, so that's down, and consumers are reportedly not spending or are at least up the wazoo with debt.

So, all in a its not a crazy prediction.

Cracking down on the informal economy, nightlife etc probably also has at least a small negative effect on GDP.

"A statistical analysis and probabilistic simulation by political scientist and consultant Jay Ulfelder, at his blog Dart-Throwing Chimp, shows that economic growth slows, on average, by 2.1 percentage points in the year of a coup, 1.3 points in the year after and 0.2 points in the year after that." http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-thailands-coup-could-affect-its-economy/

I wouldn't think the effect would be as big in Thailand specifically because I don't think anyone expects the fundamentals to be affected that much.

I would say that the cash economy of thailand is much much bigger than that, but hey. To be growing 2.5% when there has been a coup, is pretty remarkable. I am actually worried that they are going to do something stupid to counter so called populist stuff and cut government spending, just to make it worse.

[plachon]

The Euro is down against almost everything, it's not in good shape at all.

The EU is dead in the water ,i cannot see why it should not just sink under the waves and go back to indevidual countrys with their own currencies ,like it used to be .

the problem is that too many at the top just do not want the gravy train to stop.

The EU is doing quite nicely thank you and ever more countries aspire to join it, despite the Euro crisis of the last few years. Quite the opposite to what you imply, the problem was that those at the bottom (e.g. Greece, Portugal and Ireland) just did not want the gravy train to stop and provided a humoungous problem for those at the top who were paying for it. But those countries, and their people, in the main do not want to exit the EU, as proven by the latest European elections.

It is only the whacky far right parties like UKIP and National Front of France that want to bail out, but ironically now they have their fair share of MEPs collecting sizeable salaries and whacking great expenses claims (Farage realised he was on to a bloody good thing years ago), I suspect they will not be too keen on stopping their own personal gravy train, but will continue to fool the gullible into voting for them on false premises.

[Prbkk]

That said, do you think that coups are good GDP growth. Also bear in mind that the junta is busy carving up spending plans from PTP, so that bit is down, tourism numbers are supposedly down, so that's down, and consumers are reportedly not spending or are at least up the wazoo with debt.

So, all in a its not a crazy prediction.

If you believe that PTP's economic-plans were good, which many (including myself) don't, then the junta's interruption of them would be a negative.

But Yingluck inherited a reasonably-growing economy, which growth since then has declined, and was borrowing to fund things like the free-laptops, rice-scam & 50-year infrastructure-gravytrain.

If the junta can impose a little discipline, and ensure slightly-more-productive investment, the trend set by PTP & Dear Leader's economic-genius might be reversed ?

Having said which, no way is Thailand ready for ASEAN, and the next few years would have been rocky, whoever was in charge, all IMO of course.

Yes, completely agree. Very tough times ahead for the Thai economy and a dangerous juggling act in respect of policies leading into any election. The honeymoon can't last and it's impossible to please everyone.

[bigbamboo]

The Euro is down against almost everything, it's not in good shape at all.

The EU is dead in the water ,i cannot see why it should not just sink under the waves and go back to indevidual countrys with their own currencies ,like it used to be .

the problem is that too many at the top just do not want the gravy train to stop.

The EU is doing quite nicely thank you and ever more countries aspire to join it, despite the Euro crisis of the last few years. Quite the opposite to what you imply, the problem was that those at the bottom (e.g. Greece, Portugal and Ireland) just did not want the gravy train to stop and provided a humoungous problem for those at the top who were paying for it. But those countries, and their people, in the main do not want to exit the EU, as proven by the latest European elections.

It is only the whacky far right parties like UKIP and National Front of France that want to bail out, but ironically now they have their fair share of MEPs collecting sizeable salaries and whacking great expenses claims (Farage realised he was on to a bloody good thing years ago), I suspect they will not be too keen on stopping their own personal gravy train, but will continue to fool the gullible into voting for them on false premises.

In essence the EU is a good thing for Europe. The problem is that it has become increasingly unwieldy, ridiculously expensive and overly pervasive.

Europe is simply too diverse to ever be one entity, the best it can hope for is a loose confederation of warring tribes.

[Thai at Heart]

That said, do you think that coups are good GDP growth. Also bear in mind that the junta is busy carving up spending plans from PTP, so that bit is down, tourism numbers are supposedly down, so that's down, and consumers are reportedly not spending or are at least up the wazoo with debt.

So, all in a its not a crazy prediction.

If you believe that PTP's economic-plans were good, which many (including myself) don't, then the junta's interruption of them would be a negative.

But Yingluck inherited a reasonably-growing economy, which growth since then has declined, and was borrowing to fund things like the free-laptops, rice-scam & 50-year infrastructure-gravytrain.

If the junta can impose a little discipline, and ensure slightly-more-productive investment, the trend set by PTP & Dear Leader's economic-genius might be reversed ?

Having said which, no way is Thailand ready for ASEAN, and the next few years would have been rocky, whoever was in charge, all IMO of course.

Yes, completely agree. Very tough times ahead for the Thai economy and a dangerous juggling act in respect of policies leading into any election. The honeymoon can't last and it's impossible to please everyone.

I don't think what the junta is doing is outrageous. Fact is, there is space to borrow in the system. Its just about what. Thailand is still less than 50% debt to GDP.

What to spend on? Infrastructure and education get my vote. Kids nationwide are dying for better facilities.

[i claudius]

The Euro is down against almost everything, it's not in good shape at all.

The EU is dead in the water ,i cannot see why it should not just sink under the waves and go back to indevidual countrys with their own currencies ,like it used to be .

the problem is that too many at the top just do not want the gravy train to stop.

The EU is doing quite nicely thank you and ever more countries aspire to join it, despite the Euro crisis of the last few years. Quite the opposite to what you imply, the problem was that those at the bottom (e.g. Greece, Portugal and Ireland) just did not want the gravy train to stop and provided a humoungous problem for those at the top who were paying for it. But those countries, and their people, in the main do not want to exit the EU, as proven by the latest European elections.

It is only the whacky far right parties like UKIP and National Front of France that want to bail out, but ironically now they have their fair share of MEPs collecting sizeable salaries and whacking great expenses claims (Farage realised he was on to a bloody good thing years ago), I suspect they will not be too keen on stopping their own personal gravy train, but will continue to fool the gullible into voting for them on false premises.

The only countrys that want to join the E.U are the ones that get to sponge off it ,name one country that has a great economy that wants to join and give money to prop up the whole house of cards, the sooner Britain leaves the better

[Ricardo]

Yes, completely agree. Very tough times ahead for the Thai economy and a dangerous juggling act in respect of policies leading into any election. The honeymoon can't last and it's impossible to please everyone.

I don't think what the junta is doing is outrageous. Fact is, there is space to borrow in the system. Its just about what. Thailand is still less than 50% debt to GDP.

What to spend on? Infrastructure and education get my vote. Kids nationwide are dying for better facilities.

For myself, I'd say then when Thailand does borrow to fund infrastructure-development or new dams/hydro-power or whatever, the key thing is to try to limit the sticky-fingers to an affordable level, say 10% not 30%+, and then to ensure that the schemes which are carried-out are ones which give a real economic-payback.

I remain unconvinced that 50-year zero-coupon loans for building a High-Speed passenger-railway network was ever a good investment.

A standard-gauge freight-line through Thailand to speed Chinese-exports to Singapore would be fine, if China wants to pay for it, but hi-jacking the idea and claiming it was to benefit Thai local-passengers was a nonsense. There was also IMO the risk of a flood of cheap competitive-goods from China, getting as far as Bangkok, but then feeding-into the local distribution-network, and threatening Thai factories/jobs.

The junta now seem to be saying, they'll press ahead with the track-doubling & road-development & airport-expansion only, and fund it in a more responsible way.

Increased oversight & transparency can only be a good thing, and certainly Thailand is currently well able to borrow to some extent, where the investment itself will pay back. But 50-year loans with a dubious payback would not have benefited the country. Of course the politicians responsible would have been long-gone, by the time this became apparent.

[Gomyway]

The EU is doing quite nicely thank you and ever more countries aspire to join it, despite the Euro crisis of the last few years. Quite the opposite to what you imply, the problem was that those at the bottom (e.g. Greece, Portugal and Ireland) just did not want the gravy train to stop and provided a humoungous problem for those at the top who were paying for it. But those countries, and their people, in the main do not want to exit the EU, as proven by the latest European elections.

@plachon this is the best joke I'd read the last time and with your permission I would like to print your post and get a frame for it...

[plachon]

The Euro is down against almost everything, it's not in good shape at all.

The EU is dead in the water ,i cannot see why it should not just sink under the waves and go back to indevidual countrys with their own currencies ,like it used to be .

the problem is that too many at the top just do not want the gravy train to stop.

The EU is doing quite nicely thank you and ever more countries aspire to join it, despite the Euro crisis of the last few years. Quite the opposite to what you imply, the problem was that those at the bottom (e.g. Greece, Portugal and Ireland) just did not want the gravy train to stop and provided a humoungous problem for those at the top who were paying for it. But those countries, and their people, in the main do not want to exit the EU, as proven by the latest European elections.

It is only the whacky far right parties like UKIP and National Front of France that want to bail out, but ironically now they have their fair share of MEPs collecting sizeable salaries and whacking great expenses claims (Farage realised he was on to a bloody good thing years ago), I suspect they will not be too keen on stopping their own personal gravy train, but will continue to fool the gullible into voting for them on false premises.

The only countrys that want to join the E.U are the ones that get to sponge off it ,name one country that has a great economy that wants to join and give money to prop up the whole house of cards, the sooner Britain leaves the better

Scotland has a great economy and WANTS to join the EU. If Britain (with or without Scotland) were to leave the EU, it would be worse off for it, as many studies have shown. It is only UKIP little Englanders and Tory fantasists that want to leave. You should not confuse the Euro (a currency) with the EU (a trading block of nations with multiple common interests). The latter will survive, even in the absence of the former.

And to keep this focused on Thailand, consider the grouping ASEAN, which Thailand is a core member of and gains many benefits from. Should Thailand exit ASEAN because of a few rabid nationalists and short-sighted isolationists? ASEAN aspires to be more like the EU, but shall no doubt learn from the risks posed by creating a common currency, which were not well thought out in the case of the Euro. Hence, it is unlikely that experiment shall be emulated in SE Asia.

Edited June 13, 2014 by plachon